Celtics' path to cap space is still painful

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/nba-free-agency-celtics-path-140332817.html



Celtics' path to cap space is still painful


Chris Forsberg
Wed, August 4, 2021, 10:03 AM



With a focus on flexibility, the Boston Celtics have positioned themselves to add an impact talent some time in the next calendar year. But regardless of whether the Celtics seek that player via trade or free agency, there are numerous pain points along the way.

And cap space might be no less painful than the trade avenue.

Typically, utilizing cap space instead of trading away talent and draft assets would be most desirable. But the difficulty in cramming three bloated salaries under a salary cap that has endured a pandemic stall creates almost as many headaches as the trade route for Boston.

For the purpose of this exercise, let’s assume that Bradley Beal is the team’s ideal target and he opts out of the final year of his current contract with a desire to a sign a four-year, maximum salary deal with the Celtics next summer.

Beal, with 10 years of NBA experience after the 2021-22 season, is eligible to command up to 35 percent of the salary cap, or a first-year salary of roughly $41.7 million based on the NBA’s initial $119 million projection.

Beal -- or any 10-plus-year veteran who the Celtics might target -- could take less money to ease his new team’s burden. Boston also could seek a younger star. (Players with 7-9 years of experience can receive up to 30 percent of the cap; with 0-6 years of experience only 25 percent).

But let’s operate with the idea that Boston needs to get somewhere around $41.7 million in cap room to land Beal. Here’s the bare minimum that has to happen by the summer of 2022 for Boston to even sniff that much cap room:

Trade Al Horford’s partially guaranteed $26.5 million contract for the 2022-23 season.

Renounce their rights to unrestricted free agent Marcus Smart (or trade him before that point).

Trade or do not pick up the 2022-23 options and renounce the rights to Romeo Langford, Grant Williams, and Carsen Edwards.

Renounce the rights to all other unrestricted free agents, including offseason additions like Josh Richardson and Kris Dunn (if not previously traded).

Extend an $11 million qualifying offer to Robert Williams (if not previously extended)

Boston’s roster/cap sheet entering the summer of 2022 then would look like this:


NBC Sports Boston Illustration


That’s roughly $74.6 million in commitment. That number would tick higher if the Celtics elect to sign Yam Madar to a multi-year deal this summer. Boston also would have a modest cap hold in place for their first-round pick.

You still have to add in incomplete roster charges, essentially dummying in minimum salaries until you’re at the 12-man roster limit. (Beal would count as the necessary 13th player at the time of signing.)

Even with ALL those concessions, you likely still need to ask Beal to take less than the full max in order to have the room to make it work.

With a Tatum/Brown/Beal core and some intriguing young pieces on the roster, Boston seemingly would be an attractive destination for the sort of championship-chasing veterans who are currently flocking to the Lakers and Nets. So, filling out the roster isn’t a major concern. But coming off what could be a down year might hinder the perception of what Boston’s ceiling is despite the addition of a new star player.

If Beal isn’t Boston’s target and the Celtics simply want to make a Lonzo Ball-like splurge, then getting to $20ish million in cap space is a little more digestible. In that instance, Boston could even consider extending both Smart and Williams this offseason.

Extending Smart does not necessarily close the path to cap space; it would simply require the team to trade him before a free-agent pursuit. Extending Williams would bite into available space but given that he has a bulky cap hold, then wiggling up to $13-$15 million range isn’t prohibitive.

A Smart extension would start around $17.2 million next season and, if you could lock up Williams in the low teens, then you’re still flirting with maybe $20 million in space depending on other concessions.

All this, too, assumes that the 2022-23 cap lands at what seems like a very optimistic $119 million projection given that the NBA is still not quite out of the pandemic woods.

Ingesting Beal’s $33.7 million salary during the 2022-23 season might be more palpable for the Celtics but requires an awful lot to happen, most notably Beal essentially signaling that he’s only willing to sign with Boston next summer and forcing Washington to accept something less than a Jaylen Brown-helmed package.

Even then, Boston would be sacrificing a heap of future draft assets, limiting the team's ability to add cheap young talent to a bloated cap sheet but potentially allowing the Celtics to retain some additional pieces currently on the roster. Tax concerns could deter ownership from that route.

There simply isn’t an ideal path to constructing a roster with three bloated salaries, though an influx of TV money further down the road could ease longer-term concerns.

The more immediate future will require the Celtics to make tough choices just to make the cap-space avenue a possibility.


Bob
MY NOTE:  I would just love to know how other teams like Brooklyn and LAL and GSW can do it and we can't...Trading Smart might prevent us having to pay him more in his new contract but we'd have to take on salary in doing it.  Only if we take in comparable salary with more years to go on the total contract does it make any sense, but that still doesn't free up the money next year to do the retooling (it also doesn't take into account what the impact of this incoming player would be vs Smart).  Another option, unmentioned here, might be to extend Horford's contract.  Instead of trading him to relieve us of his partially guaranteed final year salary we could offer him, say, $25 over 3 years.  That's $11M more than he is currently guaranteed and at age 35 probably 1-2 more years of $ than he could expect.  He probably couldn't get more than the veteran's minimum next year when he turns 36 anyway.  The veteran minimum for a player with 10+ years experience this year is $2.6M, so $11M for 2 years is double that.  By extending his contract like that would reduce our salary next year and would also make him a much cheaper, movable contract to a team as part of a package.


.

Beal is too old to invest that much capital in. Kemba Walker was great, until he wasn't. Haven't we learned anything from that experience?

The cost to clear cap space is too high anyway. What have we become, the Knicks?

If Beal (or someone else 30yo or older) wants to join the 2Js, they should be expected to take less for the opportunity.

[Oops, time to take my meds]

gyso wrote:Beal is too old to invest that much capital in.  Kemba Walker was great, until he wasn't.  Haven't we learned anything from that experience?

The cost to clear cap space is too high anyway.  What have we become, the Knicks?

If Beal (or someone else 30yo or older) wants to join the 2Js, they should be expected to take less for the opportunity.

[Oops, time to take my meds]  

gyso,

Beal just turned 28 on June 28th.


Bob


.

bobheckler wrote:

gyso wrote:Beal is too old to invest that much capital in.  Kemba Walker was great, until he wasn't.  Haven't we learned anything from that experience?

The cost to clear cap space is too high anyway.  What have we become, the Knicks?

If Beal (or someone else 30yo or older) wants to join the 2Js, they should be expected to take less for the opportunity.

[Oops, time to take my meds]  

gyso,

Beal just turned 28 on June 28th.

Bob

.

Okay, fine.

If Beal (or someone else who will be 30yo or older at any time during his contract) wants to join the 2Js, they should be expected to take less for the opportunity.

There is just one way to get Beal: he pulls a Chris Paul with Clippers. "I am opting out and leaving. Or else, I will opt in and you trade me to the Celts." Basically, it depends upon Beal choosing the Celts.

So its possible. Tough road but possible. Can someone please relay this post to you know who? I won’t mention names, just initials. David, whatever his nickname is.

Dobie Gillis

Us fans have all kinds of whims and  pipedreams.  They go from one extreme to the other.  Some are based on hard cord facts and others are based on strange little green men standing on your shoulders.  

The latest one is a false perception that The Celtics will go after Bradley Beal and he will sign with this team because he is close to Jayson Tatum.   No team is so shallow as to have one bullseye to shoot at.  There are a lot of reason why Celtics fans should inoculate themselves against this notion. Here are a few reasons.

1.  Money - Beal can make more money resigning with Washington.

2.  Winning - Washington has assembled a very competitive roster and recently added Dinwiddie,
Montrell Harrell, Kyle Kuzma, Aaron Holiday and Caldwell Pope.  Their starting 5 looks pretty
damn good with Beal and Dinwiddlie in the backcourt and Hachimura and Kuzma at forward and surprising Daniel Gafford at center.  A healthy Thomas Bryant may be the starter in the middle.  This team has more talent top to bottom than Boston.  

3.  My team - The Wizards are Bradley Beal's team.  That means he is the main guy.  Celtics fans and other fans have consistently excoriated guys like Kevin Durant for jumping on someone's bandwagon.  

4. My team - not the man.  The Celtics are Jayson Tatum's team.  Beal is not joining unless he is the top dog.  Call it ego.  The Celtics could never be HIS team because both Tatum and Brown are better basketball players than he is.

5.  30 PPG - But not on this team.  As a matter of fact and you can write this one down, we already have a 30 PPG guy in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown is not far behind him.

6.  Not a good fit -  Beal took 23 FGA per game last year.  If he did not ramp things down he would take shots away from our two young stars.  His 1.7 assists to turnover ratio is better than both Jayson and Jaylen but definitely not enough to make a difference.  

7.  Count the damn numbers - Beal - scoring efficiency/shooting efficiency 1.220/.48  Tatum - 1.284/.53  Brown 1.287/.56   Beal is simply not worth more money then our two young studs.

8.  Biggest Need - Is a floor general as of today.  Beal is not a FG.

9.  Gutting your team - you saw the scenario.  Why gut your team for a guy that does not really fill a need.

10.  There are better options -  Like, drum role please...Kevin Durant or James Harden, or many you make a trade for a KAT who should start squeaking after this year.  This Beal or bust narrative by some less than thoughtless folks is a bust.

We ain't emptying the trust fund for some overpaid au pair.

dboss wrote:Dobie Gillis

Us fans have all kinds of whims and  pipedreams.  They go from one extreme to the other.  Some are based on hard cord facts and others are based on strange little green men standing on your shoulders.  

The latest one is a false perception that The Celtics will go after Bradley Beal and he will sign with this team because he is close to Jayson Tatum.   No team is so shallow as to have one bullseye to shoot at.  There are a lot of reason why Celtics fans should inoculate themselves against this notion. Here are a few reasons.

1.  Money - Beal can make more money resigning with Washington.

2.  Winning - Washington has assembled a very competitive roster and recently added Dinwiddie,
Montrell Harrell, Kyle Kuzma, Aaron Holiday and Caldwell Pope.  Their starting 5 looks pretty
damn good with Beal and Dinwiddlie in the backcourt and Hachimura and Kuzma at forward and surprising Daniel Gafford at center.  A healthy Thomas Bryant may be the starter in the middle.  This team has more talent top to bottom than Boston.  

3.  My team - The Wizards are Bradley Beal's team.  That means he is the main guy.  Celtics fans and other fans have consistently excoriated guys like Kevin Durant for jumping on someone's bandwagon.  

4. My team - not the man.  The Celtics are Jayson Tatum's team.  Beal is not joining unless he is the top dog.  Call it ego.  The Celtics could never be HIS team because both Tatum and Brown are better basketball players than he is.

5.  30 PPG - But not on this team.  As a matter of fact and you can write this one down, we already have a 30 PPG guy in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown is not far behind him.

6.  Not a good fit -  Beal took 23 FGA per game last year.  If he did not ramp things down he would take shots away from our two young stars.  His 1.7 assists to turnover ratio is better than both Jayson and Jaylen but definitely not enough to make a difference.  

7.  Count the damn numbers - Beal - scoring efficiency/shooting efficiency 1.220/.48  Tatum - 1.284/.53  Brown 1.287/.56   Beal is simply not worth more money then our two young studs.

8.  Biggest Need - Is a floor general as of today.  Beal is not a FG.

9.  Gutting your team - you saw the scenario.  Why gut your team for a guy that does not really fill a need.

10.  There are better options -  Like, drum role please...Kevin Durant or James Harden, or many you make a trade for a KAT who should start squeaking after this year.  This Beal or bust narrative by some less than thoughtless folks is a bust.

We ain't emptying the trust fund for some overpaid au pair.

Maynard G. Krebs,

Sir, as a player agent for Mr. Beale who knows exactly what he wants, how many points he wants to average, how much cheese he is not willing to leave on the table and why he wants to be THE MAN, you sure have a lot of negative comments concerning your client and should be fired for it. Just fantasy talk bcuz you, me or the lamppost really don’t know what he wants.
Mr. Beal may or may not be a fit for this team and we may or may never know if he goes elsewhere.
Listen, I don’t care if we sign Beal or not. I do care that we add a star player to run along with the 2 J’because I want to see this team back on top. If its someone like KAT, then great. If its Beal or Damian or whomever, IDGIF! I just want to win.
I’m certain Durant ain’t coming Cuz (News Flash!) he's staying in Brooklyn and Harden ain’t either so save it.
Hate on the Beal idea and 30 ppg all you want. (He’s not a FG btw, no matter how much you want to discredit him. I believe thats 3 points in football but I digress.) If Harden can change his game to fit, so can Beale and others. They’re Professional.Basketball.Players! Also, that Wizards team that you think is so good ain’t so good and ain’t good enough so Beal will probably kick rocks sooner than later.
Now, I ask, Where’s that PG you’ve been hankering for that we need so bad? Who is he/she?
Better question, who, that is or may become available would you like to see the C’s sign? That player thats going to get us over the hump. My feet don’t fit no limb but there’s no better way to get an answer than asking, WHO WHO?  I’ll wait.

Not sure where else to put this, don't think it's worth its own thread.  These are comments by Brad this morning to reporters.


Chris Grenham @chrisgrenham
about 28 minutes ago
Brad Stevens: “I think we’re in a good position from the big picture standpoint.”


Brian Robb @BrianTRobb
about 28 minutes ago
Brad Stevens on next season: "Obviously, we improved our coaching."
MY NOTE:  Dad joke.



Chris Grenham @chrisgrenham
about 25 minutes ago
Brad Stevens: “I want to be a team that Boston can really get behind — That plays with a great edge. That plays with grit and toughness.”



Brian Robb @BrianTRobb
about 23 minutes ago
Brad Stevens says Celtics will still look to make moves on the fringes this offseason but 'nothing is imminent.'


Chris Grenham @chrisgrenham
about 22 minutes ago
Brad Stevens on Josh Richardson: “Josh brings a great grit, an edge. He can defend multiple positions. ... he wants to win. Winning is really important to him.” Stevens said Richardson is a better shooter than his numbers showed last season.


Brian Robb @BrianTRobb
about 14 minutes ago
Brad Stevens says the Celtics will have the flexibility to spend into the luxury tax this season and add salary with TPEs.



Jared Weiss @JaredWeissNBA
about 14 minutes ago
Stevens says the Celtics didn’t want to hard cap themselves because he does have the green light to go into the tax if warranted. It’s why they got Schroder for the Tax MLE, which doesn’t trigger the hard cap like the full MLE.
MY NOTE:  This sounds promising



John Karalis @RedsArmy_John
about 9 minutes ago
Brad Stevens says the team has its eyes on some candidates for the second two-way spot, but they're in no rush. Says it's possible someone else's camp cut could end up with that spot
MY NOTE:  So, now clearly, it's the end of the Tacko Fall Era in Boston


Bob


.

Inquiring minds want to know who goes to get down to 15 contracts

From Bob's post (above):

Brian Robb @BrianTRobb
about 23 minutes ago
Brad Stevens says Celtics will still look to make moves on the fringes this offseason but 'nothing is imminent.'

Nothing is imminent ATM because he has to wait a couple months before he can combine a couple of these guys into one trade.  Sometime between the middle of October and the season opener I would guess that we could see more of the roster turn over.

Nothing major, just on the fringes.  

Ktron wrote:

dboss wrote:Dobie Gillis

Us fans have all kinds of whims and  pipedreams.  They go from one extreme to the other.  Some are based on hard cord facts and others are based on strange little green men standing on your shoulders.  

The latest one is a false perception that The Celtics will go after Bradley Beal and he will sign with this team because he is close to Jayson Tatum.   No team is so shallow as to have one bullseye to shoot at.  There are a lot of reason why Celtics fans should inoculate themselves against this notion. Here are a few reasons.

1.  Money - Beal can make more money resigning with Washington.

2.  Winning - Washington has assembled a very competitive roster and recently added Dinwiddie,
Montrell Harrell, Kyle Kuzma, Aaron Holiday and Caldwell Pope.  Their starting 5 looks pretty
damn good with Beal and Dinwiddlie in the backcourt and Hachimura and Kuzma at forward and surprising Daniel Gafford at center.  A healthy Thomas Bryant may be the starter in the middle.  This team has more talent top to bottom than Boston.  

3.  My team - The Wizards are Bradley Beal's team.  That means he is the main guy.  Celtics fans and other fans have consistently excoriated guys like Kevin Durant for jumping on someone's bandwagon.  

4. My team - not the man.  The Celtics are Jayson Tatum's team.  Beal is not joining unless he is the top dog.  Call it ego.  The Celtics could never be HIS team because both Tatum and Brown are better basketball players than he is.

5.  30 PPG - But not on this team.  As a matter of fact and you can write this one down, we already have a 30 PPG guy in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown is not far behind him.

6.  Not a good fit -  Beal took 23 FGA per game last year.  If he did not ramp things down he would take shots away from our two young stars.  His 1.7 assists to turnover ratio is better than both Jayson and Jaylen but definitely not enough to make a difference.  

7.  Count the damn numbers - Beal - scoring efficiency/shooting efficiency 1.220/.48  Tatum - 1.284/.53  Brown 1.287/.56   Beal is simply not worth more money then our two young studs.

8.  Biggest Need - Is a floor general as of today.  Beal is not a FG.

9.  Gutting your team - you saw the scenario.  Why gut your team for a guy that does not really fill a need.

10.  There are better options -  Like, drum role please...Kevin Durant or James Harden, or many you make a trade for a KAT who should start squeaking after this year.  This Beal or bust narrative by some less than thoughtless folks is a bust.

We ain't emptying the trust fund for some overpaid au pair.

Maynard G. Krebs,

Sir, as a player agent for Mr. Beale who knows exactly what he wants, how many points he wants to average, how much cheese he is not willing to leave on the table and why he wants to be THE MAN, you sure have a lot of negative comments concerning your client and should be fired for it. Just fantasy talk bcuz you, me or the lamppost really don’t know what he wants.
Mr. Beal may or may not be a fit for this team and we may or may never know if he goes elsewhere.
Listen, I don’t care if we sign Beal or not. I do care that we add a star player to run along with the 2 J’because I want to see this team back on top. If its someone like KAT, then great. If its Beal or Damian or whomever, IDGIF! I just want to win.
I’m certain Durant ain’t coming Cuz (News Flash!) he's staying in Brooklyn and Harden ain’t either so save it.
Hate on the Beal idea and 30 ppg  all you want. (He’s not a FG btw, no matter how much you want to discredit him. I believe thats 3 points in football but I digress.) If Harden can change his game to fit, so can Beale and others. They’re Professional.Basketball.Players! Also, that Wizards team that you think is so good ain’t so good and ain’t good enough so Beal will probably kick rocks sooner than later.
Now, I ask, Where’s that PG you’ve been hankering for that we need so bad? Who is he/she?
Better question, who, that is or may become available would you like to see the C’s sign? That player thats going to get us over the hump. My feet don’t fit no limb but there’s no better way to get an answer than asking, WHO WHO?  I’ll wait.

You crack me up

If Beal could run an offense like Harden than the fit would be a non issue but Beal ain't passing out anything close to 10 dimes per game. Durant is the best shooter/scorer maybe ever. Neither Harden or him would be heading to Boston. I only used them as an example to help you better understand what an elite player looks like and how that relates to kicking out $40 plus million per.

The PG issue has been resolved at least for this year. Assuming DS is on his best behavior.

We will see what happens going forward.

cowens/oldschool wrote:No way do I think the new look Wizards have better talent than us, top to bottom….I do like Gafford though and wish we could trade for him even up with RWill, if only Washington would do that deal. He has as much athleticism as RWill with no injury history.

Cow

RWIII injury history remains in the spotlight but I am not overly concerned and apparently neither are the Celtics. I believe that Boston is looking for RW to be our starting center well into the future.

However Gafford is not as athletic as RW. Both have hops but Rob got bigger hops and quicker hops and has more length

Rob has a 7' 6" wingspan, Gafford 7' 2.5"

I like Gafford a lot. Both him and Rob have played 3 years in the NBA. 113 games Williams and 97 games for Gafford.

This is likely a moot point now as I believe both players will remain with their respective teams