Levine: Celtics might want to follow Warriors' path

CSNE

RICH LEVINE

This Sunday marks six weeks since the Celtics were knocked out of the 2015 NBA playoffs, but today it feels more like six years. That’s how distant — both in time and talent — Boston seemed last night when Game 1 of the Finals tipped off in Oakland. In reality, it’s been five years since the Celtics last trip to the game’s biggest stage, and that feels like a decade ago, maybe even another lifetime that the Big 3, Shrek and Donkey, Tony Allen, Rasheed Wallace and the crew came about as close as you can to winning a title without actually getting it done. Ah, memories

But let’s forget nostalgia and get down to business. After watching the game last night, feeding off the energy at Oracle, and getting swept up in the magnitude of what could be a classic series, there are two questions weighing heavy on my mind:

1) When will the Celtics get back there?

2) What will it take for the Celtics to get back there?

Both are complicated in the sense that there’s no definitive answer. Ask Danny Ainge those two questions and he’ll tell you:

1) As soon as we can.

2) Whatever it takes.

OK. THANKS DANNY.

But that’s the truth. You can’t rush a rebuild. The teams that do almost always end up farther away from where they started. In this case, patience isn’t only a virtue for the Celtics, it’s a downright requirement. Their best course of action is still to set up camp at the intersection of every possible path to the top, and wait for the right one to reveal itself — it could be in the form of finding a superstar in the draft, or landing a few big free agents, or making one blockbuster trade or a combination of the three. But at this point, it’s impossible to forecast which road Ainge will take. You can only hope for that intersection to present as many options as possible, because the more available options, the better chance Ainge has of finding the right one.

With that said, the two teams in this year’s Finals have traveled two very different paths.

Cleveland road in on rebuilding’s perfect storm. After losing LeBron James in 2010, the Cavs outright won the lottery three times in five years — and twice with a less than three percent chance. They made five Top 5 picks in the past four drafts, and used those picks (and the players selected) to acquire Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert. Meanwhile, they were also fortunate to play in the city that birthed one of the best players in the world. Cleveland is hardly an exotic free agent destination, but last summer the city was enough to land one of the two or three most important free agents in NBA history.

And there it is. That’s how you go from the basement to the biggest stage in one year, and while Danny Ainge has done that before, he’s not in a position to do it again. Not now. Not yet. In fact, two of the biggest complaints from people who love to complain are that:

1) The Celtics didn’t bottom out enough to give themselves a chance to land a No. 1 pick, or even a top 5 pick — and they can’t count on Cleveland’s lottery luck because no one can.

2) They’ll never land a TOP free agent. The next LeBron James isn’t signing with Boston unless the next LeBron James is currently crawling around an apartment in Everett in his diapers. In which case, it’s going to be a while.

And you know what? It’s hard to argue with that. It’s true. The Celtics most likely won’t be bad enough to hit the lottery. They might lure an All Star or two into Brad Stevens’ lair, but it’s doubtful that a Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook or anyone on that level would seek out Boston in the free agent market. Bottom line: The Celtics aren’t going to do this like the Cavs just did it. That’s life. That’s OK. And anyway, the Cavs aren’t going to win the title this year.

The Warriors are.

I would’ve said that before Kyrie Irving’s injury, but now, I mean, it’s pretty much over. The Warriors were the best team in the NBA all season, and short of a legendary LeBron performance to end all legendary LeBron performances, the Warriors will be NBA champions.

On that note, there’s this —

Ten players took the floor for Steve Kerr in last night’s Game 1 victory.

Five were drafted by the Warriors: Steph Curry and Harrison Barnes were both taken with the seventh pick; Klay Thompson was taken with the 11th pick; Festus Ezeli was taken with the 30th pick and Draymond Green was the 35th overall pick in 2012.

Among the other five: Andrew Bogut was acquired in a trade with Milwaukee for Monta Ellis. Andre Iguodala was acquired in a sign-and-trade that cost the Warriors a pair of first round picks. Finally, Shaun Livingston (full mid-level exception), Leandro Barbosa (vet minimum) and Marreese Speights (three years/$11M) were all free agents.

In other words, in six years, beginning with the 2009 selection of Steph Curry (which came a few weeks before LeBron left for Miami), the Warriors built an NBA champion — at the very least, a bonafide contender — without landing a big time free agent and without picking higher than seventh in the draft. In fact, there are only two players on the roster selected in the top 5 by any team:

1) Bogut: A former No. 1 overall pick who the Warriors acquired for a guy (Monta Ellis) they drafted in the second round.

2) Livingston: A former No. 4 pick, who’s been waived five times and is playing for his ninth team in 10 seasons.

So, yeah. How about that? It might feel like six years since the Celtics were eliminated from this year’s playoffs, but in reality, six years to build an NBA champion doesn’t sound that bad. And to consider how the Warriors did it — by just drafting very well, not handcuffing themselves with stupid contracts and, of course, getting a little lucky — is to shine a little more optimism on the Celtics situation. And even if six years does feel like a long time, remember that Golden State also had to work around some obstacles.

For one, Steve Kerr is the Steph Curry’s fourth coach in six years. While the Celtics have already found their Kerr, Golden State was sidetracked by a series of bad hires, including three years of Mark Jackson.

There’s also the fun little fact that while Boston might not be bad enough to land big time draft pick on their own, they still have THREE first round picks on the way courtesy of a franchise that’s trending towards a long stay in the gutter. Thanks to that ridiculous Nets trade, Boston could easily end up with three top 5 picks without missing the playoffs.

The Warriors also hired a new GM since drafting Curry. There was a whole regime change in their six-year rise to the top. Meanwhile, Danny Ainge has been here and he’s not going anywhere. He doesn’t have to waste time cleaning up someone else’s mess. Sure, he has to draft well. In this case, he’ll have to find his Steph Curry, his Klay Thompson, and perhaps most importantly, his Draymond Green. But yeah. Of course he does. That’s the point. That’s the difference between a great GM and just another guy; between building a champion and blowing in wind. The Celtics have put themselves in a fantastic position, but making it count is the hardest part.

Just don’t let anyone tell you that “making it count” requires a top pick and/or a top free agent, because the Warriors have already proven that wrong.

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So it probably won't happen overnight but it could.  The Celtics probably won't get a star out of the draft or a major free agent or a difference-maker in a trade, but they could.  Boston fans need to be patient, but they might not need to be as patient as it seems.

And please make sure you spell my name right on the pay check.

Send your kids to journalism school!

Sam

File this one under "duh!".

Since it is unlikely we're going to land the best player on the planet because he's a New Englander, and we're not going to get 3 #1 picks in the last 5 years (Irving, Bennett, Wiggins), two of whom translate into Kevin Love well, then, we probably should go a different route.  Ya think?

I got an idea!  Maybe we could land some mid-lottery talent (maybe with some trade-ups?) and get lucky with a few late first and second rounders and do it like that!

Gee, how come Danny nor anybody else thought of that first?

To give this author some credit, he did do a good job of pointing out how, if you don't land those #1-#3 picks, it might take from 2009 to 2015 to field a true contender.  That's a 7 year rebuild to get to here.  They've had a revolving door in the head coaches office, true, but they've been gathering talent steadily since 2009.  Since 2009, GSW has had 8 picks.  4 were lottery picks (Curry, #7; Udoh, #6; Klay Thompson #11; Barnes, #7).  The Udoh pick was, well, very underwhelming.  The other 4 picks was a #44 (Charles Jenkins), #52 (Kuzmic, a total of 164 minutes), #30 (Ezeli) and #35 (Green).  So, no top 3 picks and one of them, their highest pick in fact, was a bust. A few members of this board would be marching towards TD Banknorth Garden with torches and pitchforks if Danny blew a #6 pick.  

San Antonio's secret weapon isn't Duncan or Parker or even Kawhi Leonard.  It's Pop.  It's the coach who implements a successful system and then, as players get old, you draft for a plug-and-play.  We've got our Pop.  Now we just need to give him the years to burn his system in (credit to Danny for signing Brad to an unprecedented 6 year contract.  Really putting the ol' golden handcuffs on him).



bob



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