Why Celtics odds of beating Bucks in series are better than you think despite Game 1 loss according to one historical trend

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2022/05/why-celtics-odds-of-beating-bucks-in-series-are-better-than-you-think-despite-game-1-loss-according-to-one-historical-trend.html



Why Celtics odds of beating Bucks in series are better than you think despite Game 1 loss according to one historical trend



Published: May. 02, 2022, 10:49 a.m.



BOSTON, MA - MAY 01 Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics drives to the basket past Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks during Game One of the Eastern Conference Semifinals at TD Garden on May 1, 2022 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)Getty Images


By Brian Robb | brobb@masslive.com



It was tough to find too many silver linings in the Celtics’ Game 1 loss against the Bucks on Sunday. Milwaukee limited Boston to one of their worst offensive performances since October, spoiling a strong night on the defensive end by the hosts against Giannis Antetokounmpo.

However, as the focus turns to Game 2 of the series on Tuesday night, there is one historical statistical oddity that has emerged which suggests it might not be time to panic for Boston just yet.


As ESPN’s Kevin Pelton first pointed out, lower-seeded teams in a playoff series are just 2-10 over the past decade when winning Game 1 on the road by a double-digit margin just like the Bucks did on Sunday in Boston. The 2017 Cavs and 2018 Warriors are the only two lower-seeded teams to accomplish that feat and go on to win a series since 2012.


The 2019 Boston Celtics were famously one of the teams on the wrong end of this scenario against the Bucks. Boston blew out the Bucks on the road in Game 1 after an offensive dud from Milwaukee. However, the Bucks turned the tables quickly and went on to win the next four games handily to advance to the Conference Finals, setting the stage for Kyrie Irving’s departure that summer. These 2022 Bucks are a far different squad than the 2019 Celtics but the track record of mostly underdog teams in this scenario does not suggest that the Bucks should be considered in complete control of the series just yet.

Here’s a full list of teams that have won and lost series following a Game 1 double digit win by the lower seeded squad.


Series Winners

—2017 Cavs vs. Celtics (East Finals)

—2018 Warriors vs. Rockets (West Finals)


Series Losers

—2022 Wolves vs. Grizzles (MEM in 6)

—2021 Mavericks vs. Clippers (LAC in 7)

— 2019 Celtics vs. Bucks (MIL in 5)

—2018 Pacers vs. Cavs (CLE in 7)

—2017 Rockets vs. Spurs (SA in 6)

—2017 Bucks vs. Raptors (TOR in 6)

—2016 Pacers vs. Raptors (TOR in 7)


—2015 Clippers vs. Rockets (HOU in 7)

—2014 Clippers vs. Thunder (OKC in 6)

The sample size is small enough here to keep us from drawing any direct correlation between the teams and circumstances on this list. However, this is one sign of history that should make Boston’s coaching staff and roster feel better about recovering from the Game 1 dud.

“It’s just one game,” Brown said. “You can move forward. Definitely got to watch the film, understand what we did wrong and come out and be better from it. But one game does not win you a series. And we know that being up a game, and we know now being down a game. Can’t lose our faith, can’t lose our resiliency or our confidence. Now come out and play Celtic basketball.”


The fact remains if Boston finds a way to take Game 2, we are probably in for a long series. The Celtics will look to even up the series at 1-1 on Tuesday night back at TD Garden with tip off at 7 p.m. ET.


Bob


.

The theory that tomorrow night's game makes or breaks this series for the Celtics is probably correct If Millwaukee turns home up 2-0, they will have a head of steam and an arena full of fans who will pull the over the top. I am not saying a sweep, just winning the series.

We cannot play any worse than we played yesterday, so I feel tomorrow is going to be a different game. If they hit their shots or at least over half of them, that game would have been alot closer. So............I feel they will take the game tomorrow. They just got a slap in the face to get them going. A good dope slap as my father would say!!

I am still going with Celtics in 7, the die hard in me just will not give in

Despite yesterday’s loss, I firmly believe that we are a better team and will prevail. I don’t know what the numbers say but more often than not, in a 7 game series the better team usually comes out on top.
What it comes down to is these 2 teams in this year 2022. All of those other scenarios and historic “facts” given to us by Brian Robb equates to zero right now.