Celtics vs Warriors - Thoughts and Plots

You cannot win a championship unless you get there.  Getting there is really hard to do.  The Celtics managed to take the best that the competition could serve up and still won.  It has been a long time coming but that phase of getting there is over.

The Warriors come into the final round as an immensely experienced team in championship level play.  Their core of Curry. Thompson and Green have been there so many time that it probably feels quite natural to them.  

Two years ago when Klay suffered a devastating injury followed by another one, I thought that their run was pretty much over.  But here they are again looking to recapture their greatness.  They traded for Andrew Wiggins and have done well in drafting guys like Poole and adding veterans like Otto Porter.  This team has a lot of quality depth but their roster is not complete from top to bottom.  More on that later.

I recall a few years ago when GS was on top, that Celtics fans often looked at our Celtics and imagined similarities between the two teams.  They were the ultimate pace and space team and we wanted to be like that as well.  

Over the years we have more than held our own against them in head to head games.

For all you historians out there, the Celtics won the 1964 title against the San Francisco Warriors,  4 games to 1.

So this is not the first time The Celtics and Warriors have played in the finals.

Celtics/Warriors overview

The GSW team shoots the ball well and has 4 legit 3 point shooters. (Curry, Thompson, Poole and Wiggins)   If there is one noticeable weakness, it can be traced to their lack of depth at center.  Statistically, they are #1 in PPG (114.5) but there defense which a lot of pundits are touting as being great looks rather porous to me.  They are giving up on average 109.1 PPG.   So their Net differential is +5.4

The Celtics also have a collection of gifted 3 point shooters (Tatum, Brown, Horford, and G Will)  Pritchard could be added to that mix as well.  He has also been a terrific shooter from deep during the playoffs.  The Celtics have averaged 107.1 PPG while giving up only 101 PPG.  Our Net differential is +6.1

If you believe as I do that defense wins Championships you would have to give the edge to the Celtics.

The one thing that has slowed us down during the playoffs has been injuries particularly to Robert Williams.    Daniel Theis played in game 1-4 against the Heat but did not play at all in games 5, 6 and 7.  It will be interesting to see  if Theis gets back into the mix especially if Rob continues to remain on the questionable list.  Injuries is the X-factor.

Golden State is a fun team to watch.  I think I would give them the edge on offense but Boston gets the thumbs up on defense.  I really like the way GS moves the rock on offense and finds ways to get the ball in the hands of their shooters.  They will screen you to death.  The Celtics need to do a better job closing out games when they need to score.  I really do not like those 5 out offensive sets down the stretch because there is not enough movement to get the ball to our stars. 

Steve Kerr has tons of coaching experience at the championship level while Ime continues to emerge as a significant up and coming coach and has already taken down (2) former championship coaches.  Ime is more than capable of coaching this team to the title.

I'm taking the Celtics to win this series in 7 games.

My only thought on the finals is that it’s a great bonus, no matter what the outcome.

I can’t think of a single time the Celtics made the title round after such a poor, underwhelming start. I never thought I would get to see a finals appearance this season.

The fact that I get to watch four or more Celtics games in June is an unexpected and welcome treat.

I’m going to pass on expectations vs the Warriors, or breaking it down further than that.

NYCelt wrote:My only thought on the finals is that it’s a great bonus, no matter what the outcome.

I can’t think of a single time the Celtics made the title round after such a poor, underwhelming start. I never thought I would get to see a finals appearance this season.

The fact that I get to watch four or more Celtics games in June is an unexpected and welcome treat.

I’m going to pass on expectations vs the Warriors, or breaking it down further than that.

It would be hard for me to be a Celtics fan without expectations, at least those that I will share. I have enough for the both of us.

It is indeed a rare treat considering what they went through to get here.

Going to game 1 with one of my grandsons. Nosebleeds for a grand, but hey, you only live once. (Plus, I'm being comped.) We're coming from Dixon, about an hour and a quarter to an hour and a half drive, under ordinary circumstances. I'm planning on getting into SF really early and hanging out. I'd hate to get stuck in horrible city traffic, or waylaid in other imagined circumstances. I picked the Celtics in 6 because these 7 game series' are taking a toll on my mental health.

I'm with you, jrleftfoot! That's why I'm going for Celtics in 6 as well. Each round has been a progression mentally and emotionally for these guys. The defense has been the constant. The shooting and scoring comes and goes as expected and shown by all teams.

The first round was the Celtics giving the middle finger not only to BKN and Kryrie but also to the media/talking heads as we annihilated beyond a shadow of a doubt the last remaining vestige of their pre-season, pre-destined BKN vs. LAL 2022 Finals.

Then no one (not here, of course) thought we'd get passed Giannis even without CM as Giannis was going to carry MIL to the ECF. It took us two harrowing games to come from behind and take G6 & G7, but we took care of business.

Finally, in the ECF, we get ahead on the road by seizing a 3-2 lead AND were playing the close out on our home court but could not stand prosperity and had to dramatically win G7 on the road. The 5-4 G7 Road Record for this Franchise, the only franchise to have a +.500 record there, may be better to me than the 17-4 record we have in the Finals. Both are marvels and should be recognized as such.

But still people question our ability. It's already started.

One stat that may come up that I haven't googled but maybe you guys and gal know is our record going into the Finals as the underdog and the resulting series winner. While formal betting has been around all our lives, I'm going to guess in the 80's when we played the Lakers, we were the faves in '84, and the underdogs in '85 & '87, so we'd be 0-2 going into those latter two series. Against HOU both times, I believe we were the faves. Throughout the 60's, we had to be heavy faves.

This year, we are slight dogs. The only reason I can see GSW with any slight advantage is because they have home court. Yet seizing home court advantage or winning on the road has been our biggest, most surprising advantage throughout the playoffs. Winning 3 games on the road against MIA has to be the most impressive.

So whether we've learned things and progressed or still resort to old bad habits, two things have been constant throughout...Defense and Finding a Way to Win. That's what's going to win B18.

As usual in the NBA, the two best teams made it to the Finals. It's not like in the NHL or MLB where bottom seeds consistently show up in the Finals and the scoring margins are so tight you can knock the block off your opponents all the time and cripple the higher seeds. Both of these NBA teams are top offenses and top defenses in the league although watching the Dubs, I don't see their defense as anything spectacular vs. what they are about to have unleashed on them. And their offense has yet to be constricted by any team in the West anywhere close to what's coming. Especially given what we just faced in MIA. And of course, MIA was riddled with DEVASTATING, season-ending injuries while the Celtics were in early season, tip-top shape. Their whole starting line up and their 6th man were playing on one-leg or just their hands the whole series. (Yes, insert sarcasm!!) But I digress.

This is going to be another super match. I don't see our team applying much more of what they learned to get here. They love the drama and doing things the hard way. That's not going to change this year. There will be some progress but the old ghosts will not go away and are waiting for us upon arrival in San Fran. Shedding the ghosts once and for all will be accomplished in the off-season. That's really all they need to fix. Next season should look a lot like 2007-08 where every team we faced got steamrolled during the season. The only difference will be in the playoffs we will put together something that looks more like the 90's Bulls exhibiting total domination. The 2008 team in the playoffs did not dominate. Each round was a nail biter until everything culminated in G6 Finals and we blew out Kobe and the Lakers.

We'll know right out of the shoot with G1. Given our overall progress and/or lack there of, I'm going to go with an opening loss by us. Clearly, I'd be surprised if we win G1, but not overly. This game will be the knocking off the cobwebs of what Ime would have been screaming at them to avoid with 'just being happy to be in the Finals' where they just don't listen. Boston will continue to execute their way. Winning G1 against the seasoned Warriors is a very, very long shot. But given the Warriors win G1, that means Boston has to win 4 out of 5 games remaining after that to capture the title in 6. That's the importance of winning G1 and why that record of winning the series if you win G1 is 75% or whatever it is. That's asking a lot. But I do like starting out on the road. There we can create our own pressure on ourselves. No one is expecting us to win either game. And there is a possibility of that, albeit very low. Numbers probably fall 33/45/22 for GSW winning both, split, BOS winning both respectively. Just guessing.

In summary, I expect more of the same roller coaster ride from us under the more than one way to skin a cat theory. Highs and lows. It would be great if we swept them as a final culmination of all that has happened this season and what is to come next season, but that's just not likely with this team. Will we gut it out and hang Banner 18 and db can FINALLY change his dang Avatar?!! ABSOLUTELY!! Golden State is going to learn the hard way that they were a fine champion. But this is all about passing the torch. Their time has passed. Plus we want to punch your ultimate whiny, cry baby coach in the mouth just as we slapped the shoot-eating grin off Spoelstra's ugly mug. Enjoy watching the Finals from the comfort of your own living room, Spo.

db

jrleftfoot wrote:Going to game 1 with one of my grandsons. Nosebleeds for a grand, but hey, you only live once. (Plus, I'm being comped.) We're coming from Dixon, about an hour and a quarter to an hour and a half drive, under ordinary circumstances. I'm planning on getting into SF really early and hanging out. I'd hate to get stuck in horrible city traffic, or waylaid in other imagined circumstances. I picked the Celtics in 6 because these 7 game series' are taking a toll on my mental health.

foot

That is great. I hope you and your grandson have a fantastic time. Going to an NBA Championship game is special especially when your team is playing.

Bring us some luck!

Be sure to get a photo of the two of you.

The Celtics are the only team with a winning record, 9-7, vs the GSW since the beginning of the dynasty.  Danny, basically, built this team to compete with the team he knew he'd have to knock off in the Finals.  Well, we're here.  It took us a few more years than we had hoped but now we get to see the fruits of Danny's vision.

I think our bigs are key to this series.  The Dubs are not a big team.  6'9", 225# Kevon Looney is their center.  He's averaged 6.0ppg in the regular but got it up to over 10ppg in the post season in under 20mpg.  So he's upped his game a bit.  He averaged 21mpg during the season.  He attempted exactly one 3pt fga all season (and missed).  Almost 95% of his fgas are < 10', he doesn't shoot from outside the restricted area.  He's a clean up guy.  He's not a shot blocking threat at the rim, in the playoffs, in 16 games so far, he has a total of 5 blocks.  A 60% frito shooter.  What he does very well is set picks for their shooters, and we all know about them and how little daylight they need.  One of the differences between us and most teams is that Ime has us switching on everything.  That means that Looney's man, whether it's RWill or Horford or Theis or Grant, can jump out at the ball and either challenge their shot or drive them back without having to worry too much about Looney rolling and certainly not popping.  Kevon Looney is NOT a pick-and-pop player.  I would take any one of our bigs over him.  If he rolls, he rolls.  Foul him and force him to shoot over 60%.  We need to exploit this.  Force them into taking more long shots than they'd like.

X-factors in this series, in my opinion, will be Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole and Otto Porter.  They can all score in bunches and can help out if one of the Splash Brothers is struggling.  We need our bench to contain them.

Poole is a relative unknown to us, but he averaged 18ppg in the season (16.4ppg in the playoffs).  He can go off.  He's shooting 39% from 3 in the playoffs so far.

#1 pick Andrew Wiggins is a bigger version of Poole.  Averaging almost 18ppg during the season he's about that in the playoffs.  His 39% regular season 3pt fg% is down to 35% in the playoffs, but he can shoot obviously.  At 6'7", 195# he is a frailer version of Jaylen Brown.  Uber athletic, but not as solid.  He's a career 73% frito shooter but shot 63% this season.  He has shot 63% from the line during the playoffs, so his struggles there have carried over to the post-season.

GSW has had a relatively easy road here.  They played the Denver Nuggets, the Memphis Grizzlies and the Dallas Mavericks.  

The Nuggets had the 3rd highest scoring offense in the playoffs at 110ppg.  Their defense sucks and sucked.  They lost in 5

Ja Morant missed 3 out of the 6 games in that series.  How lucky can you get?

The Mavs are Luka Doncic and a bunch of guys from the Y.  Just getting to the Conference Finals was an overachievement for them.

We, on the other hand, had to go through Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, Giannis and the reigning World Champions (admittedly without Middleton, so some luck there), and Jimmy Butler and Bam Adubayo.  

Our Margin of Victory in the playoffs so far is +6.1.  That's good for #1.  GSW has the #2 MoV at +5.4.  I realize that all the blowouts contort this stat but it still can be indicative, in context.   What context?  The one I would use it to compare our playoff MoV vs the playoff MoV of our opponents, and do the same for GSW.

Eastern Conference
Team (Ranking)..............................MoV
Boston Celtics (1)...........................+6.1
Brooklyn Nets (10)..........................-4.5
Milwaukee Bucks (5).......................+1.5
Miami Heat (3)...............................+3.8


Western Conference
Team (Ranking)..............................MoV
Golden State Warriors (2)................+5.4
Denver Nuggets (13).......................-8.0
Memphis Grizzlies (4)......................+2.4
Dallas Mavericks (6)........................+.7

What do I glean from all these numerical manipulations?  I'm seeing the Warrior's +5.4 MoV coming at the expense of a crappy Nuggets team, a Grizzly team without their superstar for half the series and still having them be quite competitive and against a team without anywhere near the firepower it would take to even go as deep into the playoffs as they did.  Look at the Grizzly's roster and tell me who jumps out at you as an All-Star besides Morant?  Nobody.  Good players, for sure, but not game changers.  Only Morant.  Lose Morant, which they did for 3 games, and who was left?  And they still took GSW to 6.  In other words, GSW's MoV is against weak and/or severely qualitatively depleted teams.

We, on the other hand, beat a team that everybody wanted to avoid, that was the odds on favorite to win it all throughout the season and that, to call it like it is, everybody thought would beat us, and we crushed them in 4.  We also beat the reigning Champs.  Without Middleton, true, but they still have a lot of talent without him and he's not their one-and-only guy like the way Ja Morant is for Memphis.  Miami was without Herro, but he was having a terrible playoffs even before we showed up.  RWill only played in 11 playoff games out of a total of 18.  Marcus Smart missed 3 games in the playoffs including 2 vs Miami.  We have the #1 MoV in the playoffs despite having our share of player games missed due to injuries and going up against the best of the East.  #1 Heat, #3 Bucks and the very dangerous #7 Nets.  GSW went against the no-defense #6 Nuggets, the Morant-less #2 Grizz and the "just happy to be here" Mavs.

Defense Wins Championships, and ours is elite and so was the defense of our Semi and Conference Finals opponents.


Team...........Defensive Rating (Rank).......Opponent's PPG (Rank)
Milwaukee-------------102.7 (1)------------101.3 (3)
Boston-----------------105.1 (2)------------101.0 (2)
Miami------------------107.0 (3)------------100.4 (1)
Memphis---------------107.1 (4)------------110.1 (11)
Golden State----------111.0 (6)------------109.8 (8th)
Dallas------------------113.9 (9)------------105..6 (6)
Brooklyn---------------119.2 (14)-----------113.5 (14)
Denver-----------------121.9 (16)----------118.0 (16)

Both GSW and us drew defensively weak teams in the first round.  Brooklyn and Denver can't defend worth shite.  In the next two rounds though our opponents' defense was elite.  Whether you look at Defensive Rating (points given up per 100 possessions) or just straight points-per-game Milwaukee and Miami were both in the top 3.  Memphis did well considering, but Dallas is not known for its defense.

We're not going to beat GSW by outshooting them.  We're going to beat them by throttling them with our defense and forcing 34 year old Curry, 32 year old Thompson and 32 year old Green to run full speed backwards on defense.  Strangle them with defense and then run at every opportunity.


Bob

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Bob


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https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2022/05/robert-williams-injury-celtics-center-availability-for-nba-finals-should-improve-with-more-time-off-per-ime-udoka.html



Robert Williams injury: Celtics center availability for NBA Finals should improve with more time off per Ime Udoka

Updated: May. 31, 2022, 12:21 p.m. | Published: May. 31, 2022, 11:46 a.m.


By Brian Robb | brobb@masslive.com


Robert Williams labored through a sore knee in the Celtics’ Game 7 win over the Heat. However, Ime Udoka was upbeat about Boston’s big man outlook for the NBA Finals matchup against the Golden State Warriors, which begins on Thursday night in San Francisco.

“Rob’s alright,” Udoka said Tuesday. “He felt good. His minutes were low. He only played 14 in that game so we tried to keep him in the lower portion if we could. Obviously, that’s beneficial for him going forward but the days off as well so he should feel better in general.


“Getting looked at today, will continue to get his treatment and his rehab in order to get swelling down and some of the mobility back. It’s going to be an ongoing thing. He’s day-to-day throughout the playoffs.”


Williams is dealing with a bone bruise in his knee suffered in Round 2 along with the lingering effects of knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus back in April. Those ailments have forced Williams to miss seven postseason games, including Game 3 of the Bucks series.


However, a lighter schedule during the NBA Finals could bode well for Williams’ availability for Boston. There will be two days off in between games for the entire series (barring Games 3 and 4). That time off combined with a three-day break before the Finals begin gives Udoka optimism about his status.


“He should feel better with time in between, especially with the two days off in between games as opposed to playing every other day,” Udoka expand. “Going back to the Milwaukee series, we played 17 days straight every other day so that’s going to take a toll on you coming off of surgery. We’ll keep his minutes down and get him back to feeling better. That will benefit us going forward.”

The Celtics and Warriors tip-off Game 1 of the NBA Finals at Chase Center at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday night. Boston will release their official injury report on Wednesday.


Bob


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I hear Stephen A. going off about how Stephen Curry is the greatest shooter God every created. Didn't I hear this same (or at the very least similar) rhetoric in the first round with KD who we reduced to a bumbling idiot, fumble-fingers, brick-laying G-Leaguer for the WHOLE series? Am I making things up?!!

db

dbrown4 wrote:I hear Stephen A. going off about how Stephen Curry is the greatest shooter God every created.  Didn't I hear this same (or at the very least similar) rhetoric in the first round with KD who we reduced to a bumbling idiot, fumble-fingers, brick-laying G-Leaguer for the WHOLE series?  Am I making things up?!!

db

db

Not made up. KD had a a well below average 4 game run

https://www.espn.com/nba/team/stats/_/name/bkn/brooklyn-nets

Steph's best playoff year was 2016-17. Greatest long distance shooter ? yeah probably

https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/3975/type/nba/seasontype/3

This is going to be a real fun series. The team that will be successful in imposing it's will should win.

Boston has to control the pace at the offensive end and not get caught up in the frenzy that Golden State plays with. They will have to get ready to shoot over the top of the smaller GS players. Also, they will have to be physical down below for offensive rebounds.

GS will try to create a switching mayhem and then their bigs will go for offensive rebounds. They are pretty good at it. We saw how a determined Adebayo was able to overpower all other than the Celtics bigs to get offensive rebounds.

I am curious to see how the games will be called. In the East playoffs, a lot of physical play was allowed. Same in 2021 finals. That will bode well for the Celts. If not, then GS gets an advantage.

Excellent analyses guys. We need to apply unrelenting pressure on D, move bodies and the ball offensively, stop with the lazy passes and the late game clock massaging. Play our game for 48 minutes. Looney can be a load' Hopefully RW will be healthy enough to contain him. Rob did the job on Bam like nobody else did .This could be the changing of  the guard.

For all the hype about GS being back in the Finals with all their experience yet to be only slight favorites or a pick 'em series by Stephen A., I must be missing something else. We should be huge dogs. Either that or GS is more about driving for show than putting for dough and is about to get exposed by the underdog who, let's face it, hasn't even really come close to playing to its full potential offensively nor defensively for an entire series yet.

Now what am I missing?!

db

This is apropos of nothing, and lord knows I'm not going to turn on the guy, when I have been one of his biggest defenders since he came to the club, and he is playing wonderfully the last several games, BUT: has anybody seen a scrawnier pro athlete than our own beloved DWhite? Weight training? Who needs weight training? Another non-sequiter: Dennis Shroder recently tweeted a photo of Lucky tatooed on his thigh, and a message saying he's rooting for the Cs. I never liked the guy's game, but I warmed up to him as a person when he was a Celtic. Thanks, Dennis. Nice gesture.

Hi,
I hope that
1. Bos imposes their will on GSW (as Prakash said)
2. Our defense is better than their offense
3. RWIII is playing and we have advantage in front-court

AK

Don't forget. The Warriors are older and more fragile (Wiggins) than the Celtics.

Kerr vs. Udoka

Such classic photos Ktron. Thanks.

cowens/oldschool wrote:

sinus007 wrote:Hi,
I hope that
1. Bos imposes their will on GSW (as Prakash said)
2. Our defense is better than their offense
3. RWIII is playing and we have advantage in front-court

AK

Yeah when healthy RWill is such a force and he hasn’t even been healthy during this run, but still had games where he owned Bam and completely shut him down.

Cow,

RWill doesn't have to be the difference that helps us win every game. He just has to be that difference maker for a couple of games. We have enough talent to win the other 2.

I, for one, really want to watch Smart post Steph up in the low blocks. Double team, find the open shooter, money. And you know a double will come because Smart would eat Steph Curry alive solo.


Bob

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Bob


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wanted to pop in and say to enjoy the finals everyone!

its been a fun ride this year (except at the beginning of course).

kdp59 wrote:wanted to pop in and say to enjoy the finals everyone!

its been a fun ride this year (except at the beginning of course).

Hi kdp. Miss you.

Bob

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bobheckler wrote:The Celtics are the only team with a winning record, 9-7, vs the GSW since the beginning of the dynasty.  Danny, basically, built this team to compete with the team he knew he'd have to knock off in the Finals.  Well, we're here.  It took us a few more years than we had hoped but now we get to see the fruits of Danny's vision.

I think our bigs are key to this series.  The Dubs are not a big team.  6'9", 225# Kevon Looney is their center.  He's averaged 6.0ppg in the regular but got it up to over 10ppg in the post season in under 20mpg.  So he's upped his game a bit.  He averaged 21mpg during the season.  He attempted exactly one 3pt fga all season (and missed).  Almost 95% of his fgas are < 10', he doesn't shoot from outside the restricted area.  He's a clean up guy.  He's not a shot blocking threat at the rim, in the playoffs, in 16 games so far, he has a total of 5 blocks.  A 60% frito shooter.  What he does very well is set picks for their shooters, and we all know about them and how little daylight they need.  One of the differences between us and most teams is that Ime has us switching on everything.  That means that Looney's man, whether it's RWill or Horford or Theis or Grant, can jump out at the ball and either challenge their shot or drive them back without having to worry too much about Looney rolling and certainly not popping.  Kevon Looney is NOT a pick-and-pop player.  I would take any one of our bigs over him.  If he rolls, he rolls.  Foul him and force him to shoot over 60%.  We need to exploit this.  Force them into taking more long shots than they'd like.

X-factors in this series, in my opinion, will be Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole and Otto Porter.  They can all score in bunches and can help out if one of the Splash Brothers is struggling.  We need our bench to contain them.

Poole is a relative unknown to us, but he averaged 18ppg in the season (16.4ppg in the playoffs).  He can go off.  He's shooting 39% from 3 in the playoffs so far.

#1 pick Andrew Wiggins is a bigger version of Poole.  Averaging almost 18ppg during the season he's about that in the playoffs.  His 39% regular season 3pt fg% is down to 35% in the playoffs, but he can shoot obviously.  At 6'7", 195# he is a frailer version of Jaylen Brown.  Uber athletic, but not as solid.  He's a career 73% frito shooter but shot 63% this season.  He has shot 63% from the line during the playoffs, so his struggles there have carried over to the post-season.

GSW has had a relatively easy road here.  They played the Denver Nuggets, the Memphis Grizzlies and the Dallas Mavericks.  

The Nuggets had the 3rd highest scoring offense in the playoffs at 110ppg.  Their defense sucks and sucked.  They lost in 5

Ja Morant missed 3 out of the 6 games in that series.  How lucky can you get?

The Mavs are Luka Doncic and a bunch of guys from the Y.  Just getting to the Conference Finals was an overachievement for them.

We, on the other hand, had to go through Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, Giannis and the reigning World Champions (admittedly without Middleton, so some luck there), and Jimmy Butler and Bam Adubayo.  

Our Margin of Victory in the playoffs so far is +6.1.  That's good for #1.  GSW has the #2 MoV at +5.4.  I realize that all the blowouts contort this stat but it still can be indicative, in context.   What context?  The one I would use it to compare our playoff MoV vs the playoff MoV of our opponents, and do the same for GSW.

Eastern Conference
Team (Ranking)..............................MoV
Boston Celtics (1)...........................+6.1
Brooklyn Nets (10)..........................-4.5
Milwaukee Bucks (5).......................+1.5
Miami Heat (3)...............................+3.8


Western Conference
Team (Ranking)..............................MoV
Golden State Warriors (2)................+5.4
Denver Nuggets (13).......................-8.0
Memphis Grizzlies (4)......................+2.4
Dallas Mavericks (6)........................+.7

What do I glean from all these numerical manipulations?  I'm seeing the Warrior's +5.4 MoV coming at the expense of a crappy Nuggets team, a Grizzly team without their superstar for half the series and still having them be quite competitive and against a team without anywhere near the firepower it would take to even go as deep into the playoffs as they did.  Look at the Grizzly's roster and tell me who jumps out at you as an All-Star besides Morant?  Nobody.  Good players, for sure, but not game changers.  Only Morant.  Lose Morant, which they did for 3 games, and who was left?  And they still took GSW to 6.  In other words, GSW's MoV is against weak and/or severely qualitatively depleted teams.

We, on the other hand, beat a team that everybody wanted to avoid, that was the odds on favorite to win it all throughout the season and that, to call it like it is, everybody thought would beat us, and we crushed them in 4.  We also beat the reigning Champs.  Without Middleton, true, but they still have a lot of talent without him and he's not their one-and-only guy like the way Ja Morant is for Memphis.  Miami was without Herro, but he was having a terrible playoffs even before we showed up.  RWill only played in 11 playoff games out of a total of 18.  Marcus Smart missed 3 games in the playoffs including 2 vs Miami.  We have the #1 MoV in the playoffs despite having our share of player games missed due to injuries and going up against the best of the East.  #1 Heat, #3 Bucks and the very dangerous #7 Nets.  GSW went against the no-defense #6 Nuggets, the Morant-less #2 Grizz and the "just happy to be here" Mavs.

Defense Wins Championships, and ours is elite and so was the defense of our Semi and Conference Finals opponents.


Team...........Defensive Rating (Rank).......Opponent's PPG (Rank)
Milwaukee-------------102.7 (1)------------101.3 (3)
Boston-----------------105.1 (2)------------101.0 (2)
Miami------------------107.0 (3)------------100.4 (1)
Memphis---------------107.1 (4)------------110.1 (11)
Golden State----------111.0 (6)------------109.8 (8th)
Dallas------------------113.9 (9)------------105..6 (6)
Brooklyn---------------119.2 (14)-----------113.5 (14)
Denver-----------------121.9 (16)----------118.0 (16)

Both GSW and us drew defensively weak teams in the first round.  Brooklyn and Denver can't defend worth shite.  In the next two rounds though our opponents' defense was elite.  Whether you look at Defensive Rating (points given up per 100 possessions) or just straight points-per-game Milwaukee and Miami were both in the top 3.  Memphis did well considering, but Dallas is not known for its defense.

We're not going to beat GSW by outshooting them.  We're going to beat them by throttling them with our defense and forcing 34 year old Curry, 32 year old Thompson and 32 year old Green to run full speed backwards on defense.  Strangle them with defense and then run at every opportunity.


Bob

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Lots of good points here that indicate that we have a great chance of winning this series. I know how you are when it comes to numbers and you know how I feel. (And Red is rolling over in his grave at the very thought) That stats can be somewhat misleading. Or should I say in some cases very much so.
However, I will agree that we have some advantages here as you pointed out.
MOV IMO means very little. Too many things happen during a game that go into that number. Bottom line for me is winning. Whether it be 1 or 20. Who really remembers weeks after the game has been decided.
Suffice it to say i don't disagree with the results of your extrapolation. Its how you got there that seems a bit over the top. We win everyone is happy so I wont belabor the point.
I do strongly disagree with your summation on Memphis. Morant may be the superstar but you cannot dismiss, Desmond Bane and Jaron Jackson. They are legitimate All stars and have a lot to do with their W-L results. They’ve won plenty without Morant. They are legitimate and can be game changes.
We have had the tougher road getting here. Thats for sure and I’m predicting a game 1 victory.