It is Time For A Lineup Change

Before you agree or disagree with what I am about to say, let's established a baseline for consideration.

The Celtics record over the past 16 games is 8-8.   That is an extended stretch of games and we have been an average club (.500)  


Some interesting trends that I am seeing in our starting lineup.

Al Horford is trending down in terms of his scoring and rebounding.

Consider his Nov production of 12 PPG and 6.8 rebounds.  In those 13 games Al scored in double digits in 10 games.

9 Dec games produced 7.4 PPG and 6.3 rebounds.  So far his 2 games in Jan have been poor with 5 PPG and 4 rebounds.

Brogdon, White, G Will and Hauser are all trending down with their scoring production. (all of them at the same time)

The Jays have struggled shooting the 3 ball but their FG % remains strong as both of them are legit 3 level scorers and their respective scoring averages remain favorable.

These trends tell me that Boston cannot outscore their way to victory.  

The Celtics are still scoring enough points to win games but their defense has to be much better.  
Al Horford is my biggest concern. He is a below double digit scorer for the first time in his entire NBA Career.  His rebounding numbers are also on the decline.  He plays too many minutes and cannot go in B2B games. The Celtics need to ramp up RW and reduce Al's floor time.  They probably also need to add another big given the uncertainty of RW availability, AH decline and Kornet's marshmello like game.

If the Celtics want to get back to the finals they will need to play defense at a significantly better level.

I would take White out of the starting lineup because as his shooting has reverted back to the mean his lack of confidence is becoming an issue.  Teams are really targeting him more and more.  Starting 2 PG who are both  average shooters is hurting the team.  Smart is the better PG playmaker and defender and never hangs his head like White does.  Send White to the bench and start Rob.  We need rim protection and rebounding that we are not getting from AH or anyone else.  

We have to get back to being a great defensive team and the best way to do that is to bring the band back together.  Roll out last season's lineup that got us to the big dance.

I am not concerned per se with a Derrick White struggling on offense.  He is not a 40% shooter from deep.  I am not putting blame on him but only pointing out that those fantastic shooting percentages that we saw earlier in the season from several players are not credible numbers.  Our offense will come from getting stops on defense and then staying locked into playing with pace, spacing the floor, moving the ball to the open man and making better decisions with our shot selection.

Ime figured out who our best 5 starters were.  Now it is up to Joe Mazulla to realize that shaking up the lineup is part of the journey.  He does not even have to figure this s--t out.  It was already established who our best starting 5 are.

+1 dboss. Case in point last night. RWIII's line was not that impressive (albeit 7 rebounds) but watching his game he was everywhere. He's a menace.

db

dbrown4 wrote:+1 dboss.  Case in point last night.  RWIII's line was not that impressive (albeit 7 rebounds) but watching his game he was everywhere.  He's a menace.      

db

If only we could get day 75 games and 30 minutes a game from him

I agree, I think they should go back to last years starting lineup. As dbrown stated Rob Williams just makes such a difference. He totally disrupts the other teams offense, and he's not even fully back to 100% yet. They should monitor his minutes, but he needs to start and finish games. If they can keep his minutes to around 24 that would be good. His time on the floor also helps Al. Teams are using our switching D to get someone on Al that can break him down. Al does his best to try and defend, but let's face it, he's not as mobile as he used to be. Rob's presence on the floor helps Al, the D never knows when he's going to swoop in and disrupt.

I f Rob starts second unit bigs are Grant and Kornet or Blake.? Maybe it's time to pick up another big or give Kabengele a run.

The Celtics will play some small ball with Grant but I think they could use another big.  Kornet can probably give us a few minutes at center but RW availability and AH limitations tells me another big would be a much needed addition.

When I wrote this thread I did not know that the Celtics opened up a roster spot.

Even if they do not add another big you can get enough backup center minutes from Grant, Blake and Kornet. Plus Kabengele deserves a look.

I am pretty certain we can go back to our 2 big lineup with the depth we have.

We need to get back to being a championship level defense and we cannot do that without RW in the lineup.

dboss wrote:Even if they do not add another big you can get enough backup center minutes from Grant,  Blake and Kornet.  Plus Kabengele deserves a look.

I am pretty certain we can go back to our 2 big lineup with the depth we have.  

We need to get back to being a championship level defense and we cannot do that without RW in the lineup.

+1

Given some of the weak sisters we already have on our bench, how would signing DeMarcus Cousins hurt us?

worcester wrote:Given some of the weak sisters we already have on our bench, how would signing DeMarcus Cousins hurt us?

Worcester

That is a real good question? He has not played in an NBA game for a while so how long would it take for him to get in NBA game shape? You also have to wonder if he would fit with the way Boston plays on offense and on defense. I recall that he is not a switchable guy on defense. I guess he could rebound the ball given his size and girth.

I read that the Lakers may be interested in bringing him back. Maybe we should let them shoot that torpedo into their sinking ship.

Hilarious, dboss!! Can't stop laughing at that, especially since it's the LAKERS!!

db

DWhite has the best + -- in the league. I'm not convinced that rewarding him by demoting him is such a good strategy. White leads the team in blocks with 39,btw. I still think that, if the starting lineup has to be juggled, Horford is the guy to drop.I know he gives us shooting, but it isn't .a prerequisite that he start for him to knock down corner 3s.I'd rather see our 5 best defenders start, but I am not denigrating anyone else's opinion. I think we are all in favor of more Rob, sooner.

I personally think we are going to see a revolving door in the starting lineup. One game RW will start, maybe even two or three, then White will get put in there. That is, until the playoffs come. I have read that he (RW) maybe out tonight, for rehabillitation management. This drives me nuts, here we are playing one of the top big men in the league in Zion and our BIG man is MIA. So there is some real questions in my mind about how many games we will get out of RW this season. That is one of the reasons why I feel we should try to find someone, NOT Cousens, who would be a serviceable backup. It is clear Luke is good in certain situations, but he is not that guy

Foot

There are so many layers to this. I will not pretend to have all of the answers.

Philosophically I do not favor the 5 out offense. I think that it lacks the diversity that Robert Williams brings to the table. Earlier in the season when our guys up and down the roster could not miss, everything looked peachy. Then we saw what happens when the 3 ball is just not falling.

I generally do not look at +, - numbers. I rely more on Net Ratings. Derrick has the best net ratings on the team (118.2 Offense, 106.4 Defense and 11.7 Overall) Those are great numbers however I also see that White is not trending in the right direction.

In 6 out of our 7 most recent losses he was dreadful on offense. Even during our current 3 game winning steak he shot poorly from the field 43% and from deep 30%.

The 5 out offense with our current configuration is not sustainable.

I also thought about switching out Rob for Al but that was just a passing thought. That pairing proved to be very effective because you have a legit inside/outside presence.

Good news, Rosalie, Zion is out for tonight. So is Brandon Ingram. But this is the same line up that took us to the cleaners a couple of weeks ago. Time for some payback!

RW is questionable. That swings either way.

Tonight we need to embrace our inner KG!!

db

dbrown4 wrote:Good news, Rosalie,  Zion is out for tonight.  So is Brandon Ingram.  But this is the same line up that took us to the cleaners a couple of weeks ago.  Time for some payback!  

RW is questionable.  That swings either way.

Tonight we need to embrace our inner KG!!  

db

I don't think the Pels took us to the cleaners. You may be referring to OKC or……

We played the Pels in November and won by 8.

Given the B2B with the Nets tomorrow they are resting Rob plus Smart will be put tonight.

Since AH has not played in B2B games this season he will play tonight but I anticipate that he will be out tomorrow.

You're right, Ktron. All those Western Conference teams blur together for me!! Thanks for the assist!!

db

dbrown4 wrote:You're right, Ktron.  All those Western Conference teams blur together for me!!  Thanks for the assist!!

db

You owe me a dime!