Should The Celtics try for the #1 seed?

I thought this was an interesting discussion I caught on ESPN's Pardon The Interuption while grinding out some mileage on the treadmill this afternoon. Thankfully gyms have TV's on the equipment to plug into for those of us who need to be distracted.

They quoted Rondo from an all-star game interview. When asked about going for the top spot in the East he said "we don't need the seed, we need health".

They made a pretty good point that we don't really need the top seed at all. We're a veteran team with championship experience that can win on the road. We've beaten the teams we might face in the postseason this year; several times this season in some cases, on our court and theirs.

I thought it was an interesting debate because of some recent comments here that we somehow need top seed to get to the finals this year. Personally, I couldn't disagree more. I'm with Rondo and the PTI guys. If we're healthy any court will do.

A good case for giving time to the bench and integrating the new guys well. Get to the playoffs with healthy players who have gotten a little breather late in the season. Make sure we're all in sync.

Thoughts? I'll give you a topic... Home court is neither homey nor a real advantage... Talk amongst yourselves...

Home court is nice, and a game 7 at home starts you out with a couple of baskets in your favor which is big.

But I'm going for health 100%.

No Shaq and JON no ring

NYC,
As I've stated a few times before, Celtics don't need the #1 seed. Even with the current roster.
If Shaq and DW come back at the end of March.... well, DW even earlier than that, they have about 10 games to polish 1st and 2nd units, plus 3-4 days to practice before the 1st round of playoffs. I think it's also enough time to get out of current funk and rest KG, PP and RA.
From what I saw during the season, I believe that this team is capable to go all the way to #18 and the main component of this journey is the health of the first 9 players: Shaq, KG, PP, RA, RR, NK, BBD, JG and DW.
Sure it's nice, if a series goes to 7 games, play the deciding games in Boston. Sure a lot of people will be screaming bloody hell if Celtics drop to 2nd or 3rd seed in an attempt to minimize the chance of an injury and give some rest to the starters. But what's the goal for this year: #1 or #18?
Just my uneducated opinion.

AK

NYCelt,

I'm all verklempt!

I think it's ill-advised to think that the success of the Celtics in the playoffs rests on Shaq's shoulders. (To say nothing of Jermaine.) For the remainder of the season, Krstic is going to have to get used to playing with someone, and I'd just as soon it be the starters. It's vital that the starters (who will normally play at least two-thirds of the game) get their collective act together. And, given Shaq's injuries and his likely conditioning, it could be we get as many fouls as minutes out of him if he does play.

I'm all primed for Glen Davis to be the backup center. Nobody has to utter a syllable to me about Glen's lack of height because I'll just respond that he and Krstic have from now until season's end to suck it up and make whatever adaptations they must to give the playoffs their best shot.

I would envision a 10-man playoff rotation, consisting of:

C-Krstic
PF-KG
SF-Pierce
SG-Allen
PG-Rondo
C-Davis
PF-Green
SF-Sasha
SG-West
PG-Arroyo

That leaves five players (Shaq, Jermaine, Wafer, Bradley, Murphy) to fill the two remaining roster spots and the three scratch spots, depending on who's healthy and contribute the most against any given team.

To the extent that he can contribute, I'd make Shaq not a starter and not the bench center but, rather, a spot player to be a Wayne Embry type enforcer when guys like Howard or Bynum get frisky.

One thing I like about my 10-man rotation is that, assuming Delonte does play tomorrow, those 10 are available NOW to focus on enhancing their play together. I look at them as the core of continuity from now through the playoffs, and anything else is gravy.

Sam

AK,

I'd say yours is far from an uneducated opinion.

I do think we're OK without Shaq though.

Regards

Sam,

Two things.

sam wrote:

I'm all verklempt!

Sam

First of all, I should have known you would be the one to come up with the response "I'm all verklempt!" I was hoping someone would recognize that old Mike Meyers routine!

sam wrote:I would envision a 10-man playoff rotation, consisting of:

C-Krstic
PF-KG
SF-Pierce
SG-Allen
PG-Rondo
C-Davis
PF-Green
SF-Sasha
SG-West
PG-Arroyo

Sam

Second; that is one heck of a lineup. In my humble opinion that is the lineup that could take us all the way.

I would still feel we were in pretty good shape if we had to shuffle the deck a little should West be unavailable, although we would be better off by far if he could stay on the court.

Regards

NYCelt,

It is one heck of a lineup. All they have to do is get their act together, and there's quite a bit of time in which to do that.

One major thing Danny has done is to make any possible unavailability of Delonte so much of a PG issue. It can now be a SG issue, and (assuming he heals), Wafer could potentially fill that bill. Or, with Green playing SF and either Davis or Murphy at PF, Sasha could be a very long defender at SG.

All the versatility and ability to mix and match is fine, but the first priority must be chemistry.

Sam

Hi,
In re: Shaq. I think he will be available "full time". Otherwise I can't imagine DA got rid of SE. I don't know, though, if he starts or goes off the bench.

AK

sinus

As shaq has missed so much time I think he'll come off the bench, he did blend well with the starters early in the year, should he start he'd probably be the first one subbed out as I am sure Doc will want to keep his minutes down. Might play some with both units depending on matchups.

But before we worry about it too much..........

dang it, he's gotta get that large torso on the friggin court!

beat

Its so tough to win a ring that almost all the cards have to fall right for you for it to happen. Our team has sufficient weaknesses to make it nearly impossible to have to go through, potentially, the Knicks, the Heat, the Bulls, and then the Lakers and succeed in winning #18. I just don't see that happening with this team, primarily because the defense is no longer able to lock down the opposition when it has to as it has in the past few years. Given the choice, I would take health too, but if we don't manage BOTH health and the #1 seed its just not going to happen this year IMO.

Pumpsie,

Here's how it's played out the past 10 years.

2010 Lakers - 1st West, 3rd league. had homecourt throughout
2009 Lakers - 1st West, 2nd league, had homecourt throughout
2008 Celtics - 1st East, 1st league, had homecourt throughout
2007 Spurs - 3rd West, 3rd league, no homecourt 2nd round
2006 Heat - 2nd East, 5th league, no homecourt in conf finals or NBA finals
2005 Spurs - 2nd West, tied 2nd league, no homecourt in conf finals
2004 Pistons - 3rd East, 7th league, had homecourt only in 1st round
2003 Spurs - 1st West, 1st league, had homecourt throughout
2002 Lakers - 3rd West, 3rd league, no homecourt in conf semis or conf finals
2001 Lakers - 2nd West, 2nd league, no homecourt in conf finals

So the past three years, a team with a conference no. 1 seed has won the title, but if you look at the past ten years, only four teams with a conference no. 1 seed has won the title. So yes, it's desirable, but it's hardly a prerequisite for winning.

Outside

What matters is whether a given team is a championship team. A championship team takes whatever comes along and deals with it well enough to win the last game of the year. It may be somewhat easier to win it all if a team has home court throughout, but it's not a lot harder for a truly championship team to win without home court. Anyone familiar with Celtics history knows that.

I'm so bored by the posts about the necessity of home court advantage that I'm close to hoping the Celtics do not get home court advantage throughout the playoffs and yet win the championship. I'm then planning to start a message board on which members are allowed to write only a singular message over and over again:

"It is not necessary to have home court advantage to win the championship. And the way a team is playing in March does not project how well it will do in the playoffs."

It will undoubtedly be a very short-lived forum, which could serve as a cure for insomniacs. But at least I will have satisfaction.

Sam

Outside wrote:Pumpsie,

Here's how it's played out the past 10 years.

2010 Lakers - 1st West, 3rd league. had homecourt throughout
2009 Lakers - 1st West, 2nd league, had homecourt throughout
2008 Celtics - 1st East, 1st league, had homecourt throughout
2007 Spurs - 3rd West, 3rd league, no homecourt 2nd round
2006 Heat - 2nd East, 5th league, no homecourt in conf finals or NBA finals
2005 Spurs - 2nd West, tied 2nd league, no homecourt in conf finals
2004 Pistons - 3rd East, 7th league, had homecourt only in 1st round
2003 Spurs - 1st West, 1st league, had homecourt throughout
2002 Lakers - 3rd West, 3rd league, no homecourt in conf semis or conf finals
2001 Lakers - 2nd West, 2nd league, no homecourt in conf finals

So the past three years, a team with a conference no. 1 seed has won the title, but if you look at the past ten years, only four teams with a conference no. 1 seed has won the title. So yes, it's desirable, but it's hardly a prerequisite for winning.

Outside

Interesting analysis Outside. Thanks.
I understand fully that we do not HAVE TO finish in first in the east to win a ring, but I think its a helluva lot easier if we do. Getting through the rebuilt Knicks, the Heat, then the Bulls, and possibly the Lakers is not a high percentage bet. It would be a lot easier if all we had to play is the Pacers, Orlando, then the Bulls and the winner of the Western Conference. I think that can be stipulated here without an arguement. Instead of two relatively easy rounds we would be set up for major battles in every round if we don't secure #1. Its possible, sure, but not likely that we would make it through all of those good teams.

Whether we secure 1st or not, I couldn't tell if Doc was pulling the ol' Phil Jackson Jedi mind trick with his comments about home court. He said basically we're not too worried about it, CHI needs it more than we do. We're professionals and can win on the road if we need to. Something to that effect.

Wouldn't it be great if we did hold on just to eff with T2 and CHI, letting them know we still have it? Actually, going into CHi in a couple of weeks and taking it from them would work just as effectively. That would be a real deflator.

to me it comes down to with a 1st seed the Celtics will have to beat the Magic and then the Heat or the Bulls (with homecourt). With a 2nd seed, the Celtics will have to beat the Heat (but with homecourt) and then most likely the Bulls (but the Bulls will have home court)

It all comes down to how you feel about having to potentially face the Heat and the Bulls in back to back rounds.

cfan,

Clearly, Option #1 would be the least tiresome and there's no guarantee ORL will make it out of the first round with the toss up 4 v. 5. If we can have one of the superpowers innihilate themselves v. each other, that's one less to worry about and have to play, reducing our chances of an early exit.

I think DA, given his moves at the trading deadline, has gambled on Option #2 in some form, in true Celtic fashion. If we're going to win or are going down, we're going up against the best. Why would he trade away the only D12 stopper in the league if he didn't think the chances of us playing ORL in 2nd round or ORL not making it to the 2nd round were pretty low?

He may be betting on a break of some kind as well, maybe MIA not coming out of the first round, still a high chance of that happening, especially with NYK looming in 6th. Or CHI falling asleep at the switch, very likely as well. T2 has done well, but he's never head coached in the playoffs. Whether you like it or not, it is gambling and for very high stakes. There is a scenario, very likely, that we can have the 2nd seed and still have homecourt throughout. Cards have to fall just right though. LAL out of the West -very likely, MIA effing up early- very likely, ORL going out in first round as 4th seed - 50/50. CHI imploding before ECF, new coach under pressure - somewhat likely.

I'm really liking what Danny did and understand why more and more each day. He's left the players with very little mess to clean up and re-group. Schedule is forgiving with 3 "testers" in for good measure, all road games. All will be very good indicators of where we are mentally, phyically, chemically and emotionally just before the big dance.

Give me health over the #1 seed all day. Last year proved that.

Doc is already starting to back off the minutes on the big 3 - especially Pierce and KG...which is good for all involved.

mrkleen,

Yeah, we all want health and #1! I forgot to mention our ongoing helath issues in my diatribe prompting the trade fallout. Thanks for the reminder. It's become so much a part of this season, I subconsciously blocked it out. The Celtics certainly have. Just another day at the office.

Health is #1. #2 is Health, as is #3.

We are LOADED with veterans.

6 of those veterans have championship rings (PP, RA, RR, SHAQ, KG, DAVIS). I don't think any comments are necessary about them and whether they have what it takes to handle playoff level pressure.

Another 3 of those veterans have a fair amount of playoff experience (WEST, SASHA, JON). West has played in 45 playoff games and started 30 of them. Sasha has played in 42 playoff games, including 20 that he started with Cleveland in 06-07. JON has played in 81 playoff games and started 60 of them.

That's 9 battle-tested players, right there. Barring injuries, we probably don't have to go much deeper into the bench than that BUT IF WE DID we also have Krstic starting all 21 of his 21 playoff games and Green who started all 6 of his.

That's 11 players, almost a full playoff roster, who have won championships or have started on playoff teams. Not a single blushing bride amongst them.

The key is how healthy and fresh will all those veterans be for "the second season"? If we're healthy, there are only 2 teams that can match us for savvy, experienced veteran leadership and that's LA and SAS and I like our players and depth better.

bob

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The very idea that Danny and Doc were sitting around handicapping the playoff seedings while contemplating The Trade is preposterous. They basically took into account two factors. (1) Not trading Perk presented two risks: ongoing health concerns now and in the future, and loss through free agency in return for nothing. (2) By trading Perk, they could actually work from a position of strength to improve the team now and for the future.

So they traded Perk and got the best deal they could so as to put together the best team they could. Facing Howard is not accomplished just by relying on one person. What happens when (not "if") that one person incurs two quick fouls or three or four fouls within the first half?

Fans love to conjecture about the potential effect of seedings and scheduling. Basketball executives can't be distracted with that. They have to focus on building what they think is the best team for taking on all comers, not just one or two of the usual suspects. Moreover, the system employed by the team is meant to adapt to different circumstances. It's already apparent that Doc's experimenting with different combinations in order to make the system more adaptable.

By trading away Perk, they fortunately got a pretty darned good (to say nothing of healthy) center who has substantially improved their offensive potential and lowered their turnover potential. Without Krstic on hand, they could easily have been several games behind by the time Perk returned from injury.

And, if the trade hadn't gained them a legitimately tall and athletic (to say nothing of healthy) SF, this board would still be full of concerns about (1) who's going to cover Lebron and Kobe and rest Pierce and (2) when oh when is Marguis going to return?

Sam

Well, damn, bobh, if you're going to put it that way, who's going to argue with that! Well put. Should have seen that one myself!

I can relax for now.

Jeff Fogle, of hoopdata.com, does some analysis of the value of homecourt. Keeping in mind that the playoffs are almost a completely different species from regular season games...

http://hoopdata.com/blogengine/post/2011/03/11/A-Quick-Look-at-Home-Court-Advantage.aspx


bob


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Continuity (especially with out newbies) and fresh legs for our vets is going to get us a championship. No 1 seed No 1 schmeed. We are headed in the right direction. BobH said it best.

Hoop