SHOULD AVERY BRADLEY STAY IN THE STARTING LINEUP?

We're 9 or 10 to 1 without Ray Allen and 5 and 0 with Bradley starting. I'm not in favor of Allen starting until we start losing with Bradley at the two.

Why change something that's working so well?

yes

BobH,

Really interesting stats. I believe that, when utilizing +/- five-man combinations, it's not as appropriate to use the total +/- figure for each combination as to put it on a per-minute basis. This puts all combinations on the same basis in terms of +/- figures.

There are nine Celtics five-man combinations that have played at least 40 minutes together (as of the date of the listing). I've listed them below, in order of the number of points gained or lost per minute played together:

Among the nine combinations with at least 40 minutes together, here are two combinations that are way out in front of all others in terms of points gained per minute of play. Bradley, Pierce, Bass and Garnett are in all four of the combinations.

Rondo-Bradley-Pierce-Bass-Garnett 78.0 minutes together +.51 gain per min.
Bradley-Pietrus-Pierce-Bass-Garnett 56.2 minutes together +.46 gain per min.

There are three combinations that have gained at least .13 point per minute. Bradley is in one of the three combinations.

Rondo-Allen-Pierce-Garnett-O'Neil 177.6 minutes together +.15 gain per min.
Bradley-Allen-Pierce-Bass-Garnett 32.4 minutes together +.14 gain per min.
Rondo-Allen-Pierce-Bass-Garnett 284.4 minutes together +.13 gain per min.

There are two combinations that have gained at least .03 point per minute. Bradley is in one of the two combinations.

Rondo-Bradley-Pierce-Bass-Garnett 31.9 minutes together +0.6 gain per min.
Rondo-Allen-Pierce-Bass-Stiemsma 64.9 minutes together +0.3 gain per min.

There are two combinations that have lost at least .09 point per minute. Bradley is in neither of the two combinations.

Rondo-Allen-Pierce-Bass-O'Neil 47.0 minutes together -.09 loss per min.
Rondo-Allen-Pierce-Bass-Wilcox 57.6 minutes together -.19 loss per min.

In fact, among the top nine combinations in terms of minutes played together, Garnett and Bradley are the only two Celtics who have not played on a losing combination.

Pretty impressive for Avery, huh?

And, despite the fact that Avery is obviously hot a classic PG, the combination of Bradley, Pietrus, Pierce, Bass and Garnett ranks a very close #2 on this list of combinations. What this says to me is that there's more than one way to skin a cat. Without Rondo in the combination, the ramping up of defensive intensity (with Bradley, Pietrus and Garnett) seems an ideal complement to the offensive credentials of Pierce, Bass and Garnett. I'd be willing to bet their offensive production is lower than it would be with Rondo and Ray in the lineup instead of Bradley and Pietrus, but the balance between the offensive and defensive effectiveness of the combination including Bradley and Pietrus nets out to a very strong gain per minute.

And, as a major cat lover, I apologize about the "skin the cat" remark. How about "skin the Heat?"

Sam

sam wrote:BobH,

Really interesting stats. I believe that, when utilizing +/- five-man combinations, it's not as appropriate to use the total +/- figure for each combination as to put it on a per-minute basis. This puts all combinations on the same basis in terms of +/- figures.

There are nine Celtics five-man combinations that have played at least 40 minutes together (as of the date of the listing). I've listed them below, in order of the number of points gained or lost per minute played together:

Among the nine combinations with at least 40 minutes together, here are two combinations that are way out in front of all others in terms of points gained per minute of play. Bradley, Pierce, Bass and Garnett are in all four of the combinations.

Rondo-Bradley-Pierce-Bass-Garnett 78.0 minutes together +.51 gain per min.
Bradley-Pietrus-Pierce-Bass-Garnett 56.2 minutes together +.46 gain per min.

There are three combinations that have gained at least .13 point per minute. Bradley is in one of the three combinations.

Rondo-Allen-Pierce-Garnett-O'Neil 177.6 minutes together +.15 gain per min.
Bradley-Allen-Pierce-Bass-Garnett 32.4 minutes together +.14 gain per min.
Rondo-Allen-Pierce-Bass-Garnett 284.4 minutes together +.13 gain per min.

There are two combinations that have gained at least .03 point per minute. Bradley is in one of the two combinations.

Rondo-Bradley-Pierce-Bass-Garnett 31.9 minutes together +0.6 gain per min.
Rondo-Allen-Pierce-Bass-Stiemsma 64.9 minutes together +0.3 gain per min.

There are two combinations that have lost at least .09 point per minute. Bradley is in neither of the two combinations.

Rondo-Allen-Pierce-Bass-O'Neil 47.0 minutes together -.09 loss per min.
Rondo-Allen-Pierce-Bass-Wilcox 57.6 minutes together -.19 loss per min.

In fact, among the top nine combinations in terms of minutes played together, Garnett and Bradley are the only two Celtics who have not played on a losing combination.

Pretty impressive for Avery, huh?

Sam

Sam,


Yeah, it really is. The word is out, now, that when Ray comes back he'll be starting and Bradley will be going back to the bench. It'll be interesting to see what effect that has on chemistry and productivity of the starting unit and the bench. A lot of Bradley's effectiveness as a starter is due to him not responsible for running the offense. Move him to a ballhandling position on the 2nd unit and...?

Odd, scoring goes up when a mediocre scorer like Bradley is in the game than when one of the great scorers in NBA history is in. No wonder Bradley's +/-/over/under/whatever is looking better than Ray. If his unit is scoring more than Ray's unit AND Bradley's a superior defender...

E'taun Moore has to look at Rondo and Bradley and think "they both started with Doc, and now look at them!".

bob


.

Bob,

I think we need to remember that, if the scoring goes up with Bradley in the lineup, it doesn't necessarily mean he's the one doing the scoring or even the assisting. His presence quite likely gives the Celtics more possessions per minute, especially if he's paired with Pietrus and KG.

I've been watching WBZ-FM Sports, and they're saying that Doc's challenge will be to make sure Rondo's in the lineup whenever Bradley's in there. These figures would suggest that's not necessarily imperative as long as another defensive specialist is in there to transform them from an offensive-centric squad to a defensive-centric squad. In other words, it could be that, in the absence of Pietrus, someone like Sasha could be as effective a running mate as Rondo for Bradley—but for different reasons.

That sort of thinking wouldn't be appropriate for a club that didn't have guys like Pierce and KG through whom they can run the plays with a high degree of confidence. Heck, maybe I'm dreaming and it's not appropriate anyway. But these are very interesting figures that suggest (bottom line) that the Celtics can be very dangerous with either an offensive-centric or a defensive-centric combination on the floor.

It will be really interesting to see how Ray becomes re-integrated but maybe more interesting to see if and how his teammates help pave the way by setting better screens, etc. I do believe that Ray, much more than Avery, is a rhythm player who operates best with a well-defined role. So, despite the tremendous lift Avery has obviously given the team, I guess it make sense to have Ray start when he's ready.. I'll be very surprised, however, if Ray's minutes aren't reduced in favor of more time for Bradley.

Sam

Bradley was playing 12-15 minutes or so, from what I recall from the boxscores, he needs at least 30 min and hes earned it. I realize its not all Avery as in another thread I remarked how well hes learned how to play off Rondo, Pierce and KG. However I really feel his youth and energy is better suited to help with the starters and be that sparkplug as a 2 that can also bring up and push the ball with them on occasion and run with Rondo and make the defense even better.

To play him as a point with other subs for 12-15 minutes is not maximizing all he can do.....I think this is a good problem to have a young stud playing so well, a team gelling and a HoF player coming back to add to our team.

Cow,

Actually, in the most recent games, Avery has been leading the team in minutes played. In the Heat game, I believe he was tied with Rondo for most minutes—37. Doc's obviously not afraid to play Avery.

The thing is that it's not all about maximizing all Avery can do. It's about maximizing all that the totality of the team can do together. Suppose starting Avery increases his INDIVIDUAL effectiveness by 10% but starting Ray improves the TEAM'S effectiveness by 15%. I expect Doc would go with starting Ray.

Of course, a key factor is how "effectiveness" is defined. Stats may be a partial measure, but there are many less tangible measures too. Doc has to weigh all relevant indicators in his head, and we very don't have access to what all the indicators are and how much importance he attaches to each one. Doc, himself, is probably not conscious of all these variables but may make his decision based on a hunch that is subconsciously influenced on all the variables.

But I can pretty much guarantee that improving Avery's INDIVIDUAL effectiveness is, at most, one of many considerations that will go into Doc's decision.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Doc eases Ray back into the lineup by having him come off the bench for limited minutes. So what Doc does upon Ray's return may not be indicative of what Doc's planning in the long run.

Who knows what will happen. It will be very interesting to see how Doc reacts to this challenge. As you say, it's sort of a nice problem to have, but it could also be a make-or-break decision for the season as a whole. We'll see.

Sam