Three options for the summer of 2012

Yes i know we're hopefully more than a month away from being conforonted with this issue, but im just a little tired of the "last run" comments in the media regarding certian members of the boston celtics. I thought it'd be fun to look at three possibilities for the Celtics that might be considered.

First we know that with a cap of somewhere around 60 million the Celtics will have 25 million or so to work with- almost 30 million if Bass decideds to not take his player option.

We've also got picks number 21, 22 & 51- if we keep them we'll have closer to 20 million to deal with.

On the roster we'll have
Peirce/Bradley/Rondo/Johnson/Moore and Bass maybe

what could we do with those options. Im going to consider three options #1- the blowup: #2- shopping free agency: #3C- the semi blockbuster trade

First the blowup. This would take us back on a similer route as we saw back in the early yrs of Danny Ainge, the nice part of the situation would be that Bradley and Rondo are both young enough that we will still have many more years ahead of us to use them to chase titles down the road. Step one would be to trade Peirce to a team wishing to contend for expirings and future firsts. Step two would then be to take on othe teams baggege in exchange for more draft picks.

the upside of this would be the possibilty of a very high lotto pick in '13 and time for the 21 & 22 picks to devolope, and then 45 million or so in the summer of 13 to shop for free agents, and a plethera of extra picks to work with.

the downside: picks are risky at best, we'd lose the legacy of having Peirce a celtics lifer. the 12-13 season would be very painfull to watch. And Rondo would be our most mature player for an entire season.

#2- shopping free agency.. our backcourt is taken care of, Paul and Bass could start next season for us, leaving us with the need for a starting 5.. if the 21st or 22nd or 51st picks aint good enough to start right away for us and help us win a title, we're left with shopping for the best Big out there and some high quality backups.. The tricky part is, while there are a plethera of really nice role players to be had (we already have a lot of them currently on the roster) there are only a couple of higher quality guys at the 5 spot on the market- notably, Kevin Garnet and Chris Kamen, and if you want to compete next year, the better of the two is a Celtic right now. Still looking over the rest of the f/a class, truth be told a lot of the guys we might want to consider next year, are here this year.

The reality, 3 draft picks and spending our cap isnt likely to make us a better team that what we have.

#3- the semi blockbuster trade: Where this would make the most sense: First Boston would have to work to charm a few people in paticuler, namely Garnet, Bass and Allen to come back. Secondly, they'd have to do so with Bass on his option and motivate the elder two to come back more on a team freindly deal. And third, they'd have to find a suitable partner to make the right trade for.

for the sake of argument I'm going to make a hypthetical situation up. The celtics work out a deal with the Jazz..

Fist about the Jazz, they won less than 40 games then were swept out of the first round, and have about 12 million in cap space going into the summer and no draft picks. Their best player is a former Celtic getting paid 15 million and on the last year of his contract. Before the Jazz get better, its very likely they might have to get worse first.

Two possible deals with Jazz could work, a sign and trade- #1 Boston could sign a player, or a couple players and send in a package deal to utah along with our three picks this season for Big Al or #2, the less likely, Boston could send this years picks and several of the 5 second rounders we have in the next three years and the teams 2013 first to Utah.

Utah would benifit by not loosing Big Al possibly to free agency and gaining nothing for their efforts and allowing more time for their younger players to devope while gettign multiple younger players.

Boston would benifit though, by getting the added depth- and quality depth up front and center.

Big Al wouldnt have a difficult time fitting in, he's played with Rondo and Peirce, and Doc has already coached him. Boston woudl still have a MLE to use and good relationships with guys such as Wilcox, Steimsma, Green, Dooling, Peitrus, Daniels ect.. that bringing back most of this seasons crew would not be too difficult.

While the Big Al trade is purely hypothetical, i think the most likely scenerio we'll see this summer is something akin to this, that Boston will work a sign and trade deal or trade future firsts and take on other star contracts from other teams who are looking to rebuild. Do either of the other two situations point us in the direction of helping us win another title any time soon?

I think it depends a lot on what Paul, and KG want. There's a chance that Paul retires or KG doesn't re-sign. If either happens, it may be worth re-building. But if those two re-sign, I think we should be trying to make the team as good as possible for next year. Though if we see the opportunity to add a younger star to the front court like Al Jefferson (or I guess I can dream for Dwight Howard), generally you make that move. But that's for the present situation and future. Ray Allen re-signed would help the team but he isn't a necessity. If we keep him, he's part of the role players necessary to compete for a championship, like Wilcox, Green, Pietrus, Daniels, and potentially Bass.

We're not that far away, we just need a few key pieces and we could have that key depth which seems like the new vougue in the league going forward. Obviously San Antonio has it, the Bulls when healthy have it, so do Denver and Pacers. I think KG and Ray will comeback at a reduced rate and we add a few key pieces we're right there......would love to see us like Spurs where TD can play 25 minutes a game and win.

Wouldn't it be nice if Paul, KG and Ray all come back and represent a standard of excellence that younger guys will have to equal or exceed in order to become starters? I guess one might call it the "Allen/Bradley Formula." The ultimate goal—over time—would be for all the frontliners to be under age 30 while the Three Amigos would gradually phase out in the roles of support personnel while representing incredible depth in the meantime.

Of course, this type of plan could easily be subverted if KG and/or Paul refused to continue if they were not guaranteed starting roles.

Sounds good though.

Sam

I don't think we have players that could take over for Pierce or KG yet. Johnson perhaps in another year. By then, KG may be happy to have his protege be productive. I don't think a 6th man type role could be ideal for Pierce. The offense can run through him for a bit while Rondo takes his breather. He'll get to create his own shot for a good bit of the game. And of course, he'll be the guy finishing the game. Can he put his ego aside and let a Jeff Green or Mickael Pietrus start? I don't know if that's possible. I would really love to see a rotation of Rondo/Bradley/Allen/Pierce/Pietrus/Green/KG/Bass/Wilcox for next season. Maybe with development of Johnson or Moore we'd have some further depth. Is Stiemsma more than a 1 year player for us? I wonder if he could be a reliable effective backup center for us. Then we have our two draft picks. Both represent potential in this strong draft class but can we add potential in the front court where we are in the draft? Would we be able to move up and even if we do, wouldn't it just be so nice to have Austin Rivers drafted by the Cs?

Kyle,

I agree that players currently on the roster might not have the potential to be future impact players to replace KG and, later, Paul Pierce gradually. Of course, last season, I would have said that about Avery Bradley replacing Ray Allen.

Of the bunch other than Rondo, Bradley, KG, Pierce and Ray, Jeff Green might have that sort of potential to understudy Pierce after Jeff gets more comfortable with the Celtics system. Stiemsma could represent a Greg Kite sort of permanent backup once his feet clear up.

I would rather have seen Johnson and Moore in the DL this season, because they mainly represented curiosities without much opportunity to develop with the Celtics. Moore seems to have the kind of stroke and savvy that might project him in the mix to replace Ray over time. Johnson can excite people with a few garbage time moves; but the thought of him ever anchoring the team in a series like the one just ended seems like a remote possibility.

In terms of a gradual replacement for KG, I hope some combination of draft picks (I think they have three this year) and/or a possible trade and/or a free agent signing might yield a young big guy who's not a reclamation project and who might, within a year, demonstrate the sort of potential that would justify moving KG to the bench.

The key to this concept is having KG and Pierce represent standards of excellence (albeit declining excellence) at their positions until they're knocked out of the starting lineup by younger guys—and then representing standards of excellence (along with Ray) of bench depth until they completely fade out of the picture. In other words, I hope they can optimize the play at each position while effecting a relatively smooth transition from the Three Amigos to their successors.

I shouldn't omit Rondo and Bradley from thoughts about the future either. I hope the team will follow an emerging trend in the league by morphing over time into an uptempo offensive team that also perpetuates a defensive attacking mentality. Rajon and Avery could fit nicely into that scenario.

However, while I think Rondo is the best playmaking PG in the league and Bradley may be the best ballhawking SG in the league, the fact that neither of them seems to provide consistent scoring strength from the backcourt makes me wonder whether they could provide the kind of impact that a championship team requires for a team that might not enjoy such big time scoring capability as the Three Amigos have given us. Moreover, the inconsistent ball control exhibited by Rondo in particular could easily become even more problematic in a more uptempo mode.

Add to that the fact that Rondo has a very strong personality, and I'm not certain "personality" the team will adopt when he has majority control of the team without the kind of tempering influence represented by the Three Amigos. I'm never as concerned about what one player might bring to the party as I am about the total, interactive performance of a team that includes that player. A team needs cerebral and personality chemistry as well as physical chemistry. Can Rondo provide a foundation for that?

Every time I consider the future of Rondo with the Celtics, I think back to previous PG of the team. Two in particular.

Cousy had a very strong personality that required some honing over the first six years of his career so that, when Russ came along, the two of them could coexist as strong but complementary team leaders—one spearheading the offense and the other a catalyst for the defense.

DJ's attitude problems were well documented when he joined the Celtics, but he fit in remarkably well almost overnight, adding a defensive component that team really needed plus a fearlessness to take the big shot in crunch time.

Both The Cooz and DJ became strong team leaders in ways that underscored the notion that the team's what matters. Will Rondo be able to fit that mold on and off the court?

It will be most interesting to see what direction the rebuilding of this team takes.

Sam

Matty,

As you point out, there are many directions the Celtics could take this offseason. I feel the one certainty is we'll all be surprised, if for no other reason than the number of options that do exist; and you've pointed out three with high potential.

My only guess is whatever we do will center on building to compliment Rondo's key strengths. Speed hopefully being one of them.

Since I have no idea, I'll stick with these three options for summer 2012;

1. Baseball games
2. Improving my short game, especially wedges around the green
3. Ice cream

Those three I can control. Well, except for the wedge...

Regards

There's lots of uncertainty for sure with Moore and Johnson. But I like some of what I've seen from them. They're nice complements to what we have potentially for the future in Rondo and Bradley. But yes, Moore isn't going to be a scorer. Johnson almost certainly isn't it either but he does have potential. Rondo and Bradley are best suited as complementary scorers, probably not even as the 2nd and 3rd best scorers on a team but as 3rd or 4th best scorers. Obviously then the key to the Celts isn't on the team. We'll have to get lucky either through the draft or free agency (probably impossible). So I'm paying attention to the draft and looking for high potential players that we could develop. And I'm looking for opportunities to move for an elite player. For instance, I think the Cs will take a strong run at Howard, trying to build a trade around Bradley.


I don't know much about Cousy early in his career. His early career was even before my dad's time. But DJ was certainly misunderstood. Maybe they were frustrated with him in Seattle and certainly Phoenix never appreciated him. But those lessons certainly should teach us to be patient with Rondo. Those two became great character leaders on multiple championship teams. Rondo can too. Confidence and swagger can be very useful for a star. Heck, he could be talented enough to be the next Tiny Archibald, super scorer and super playmaker. When we start rebuilding, the Cs will still be very interesting. Not as good but still fun. Till then, we're competing for a championship and this team certainly can still do that.

Jeff Green is the wildcard, we could have been beasts of the whole conference with him as a 3 and 4 providing depth that would make Pierce and KG even better as in better rested. Going forward longterm he with Rondo and AB can be compelling as the 3 pieces at 1,2 and 3, can we luck out and get a Perry Jones and a Fab Melo or a Royce White? either way next year with hopefully the Big 3 in year 6 of a 3 year plan with some lucky picks could make us contending again.

cowens/oldschool wrote:Jeff Green is the wildcard, we could have been beasts of the whole conference with him as a 3 and 4 providing depth that would make Pierce and KG even better as in better rested. Going forward longterm he with Rondo and AB can be compelling as the 3 pieces at 1,2 and 3, can we luck out and get a Perry Jones and a Fab Melo or a Royce White? either way next year with hopefully the Big 3 in year 6 of a 3 year plan with some lucky picks could make us contending again.

I think the biggest question goig forward is: are we going to work to keep on contendeding, or are we going to restructure. F/A and the use of the picks puts us in unknown territory, heck 1/2 the league is "rebuilding hoping to contend" I dont think anyone see's whats left of this seasosn f/a helping Boston win a title.. other teams might be a Ray Allen or KG away from a title.. we need a lot more tools that what our roster will have in place and f/a just wont be offering them either..

if we want to contend neither f/a nor the 21,22 & 51st picks are going to get us playing in june 2013.

i think we already have the peices availible to contend in 12-13 if the three amigos all return and we can bring back the crew we've have all season plus wilcox and Jeff Green.. the team minus J'ON that Danny expected us to feild i think could still be capable of at the very least a ECF spot, if not more. To me bringing back that crew and making a trade for one more player- the right player could put us right back up to a leval of 2008- or better..

matty whos the player you would trade for that could put us over the top?

cowens/oldschool wrote:matty whos the player you would trade for that could put us over the top?

COW, Im pretty sure the best bigs on the f/a list is chris Kaman or kris humphries, but i think he got an extension didnt he? in which case, id put him on the trade for list..

while there have been comments about the Magic still trading Howard Im not sure his skill set is worth the drama he'd bring.. as far as drama, we got Rondo for that thankyou very much.. any more and we'd turn into South Beach part Duex.

Really i think we'd have only a few more options in a trade than even in f/a but the guys i'd look into making a deal for
1-al jefferson
2-Gortat
3-david west
4-Beasley

hooter

Kris Humphries we could use, he can do alot of dirty work, can run floor, good hands, Rondo would make him alot better. Big Al has never been same since his knee surgery, very up and down, not that good a defender and not sure what hes making, but its alot, is he worth tying up all that money? A guy I like who has more intangibles than Big Al is Derick Favors, better defender who can run and would fit in great with Rondo and AB.

I still think we can luck out with the draft, just add a few pieces, resign a Jeff Green and Wilcox and we could be set to contend even stronger next year. KG and Pierce have at least 2 more very productive years left. Would like to get a physical presence/banger to help KG against the really big boys.

cow

well heres the Big Al scoop

next year getting paid 15 million, but its an expiring. and there has been talk that Utah #1- wants to get into the draft #2- has considered moving Al for two reasons, fear of losing him the next season to f/a and letting some of the other "younger" guys get more playing time to devolope.

Big Al has had a few issues, but is still a d@mn good player, and is still working on his game, he's still looking to learn- a season or two with KG could really help him improve on D. sure not a defender as much as an offensive threat, but he gives us talent solid bulk.. he's almost a 10 rebound a game guy.

from a defensive standpoint he'd sort of be like a Ray Allen, not noted for his defense, but Ray works well in the system. Al could do that and help us out greatly in the two area's where we need the most help, rebounding and Offensive points.

moving forward after 12-13, Al would be resignable, and certianly for less than the 15 mill he's making next yr.

the others i think woudl be "IFy".. Beasley might just need the proper place to fit in.. Lee is smaller and though he puts up nice numbers doesnt help us in the ht department, something i think we're going to need.

Gortat I think coudl be a good option, wether his team woudl be willing to send him off is another story.

Humphries has one major issue, having been married to a kardashion one must wonder about his mental health.

still those 4, or five if we count Humphries I think represent better options than anyone we could get in f/a other than Kamen, who also has his own issues.

I like Gortat, a very good role player has the bulk and size you need in the paint, did you mean David Lee? saw him in NY, no thanks worse starting defensive forward in basketball, he makes Chris Bosh look serviceable. Out of all the players that we named I like Favors the best, hes still got more upside, but agreed Big Al could obviously help us......he loves Boston and playing with what we got would only elevate his game.

Either way, if KG doesn't come back, we have to find ourselves a crazy defender.

bob

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cowens/oldschool wrote:I like Gortat, a very good role player has the bulk and size you need in the paint, did you mean David Lee? saw him in NY, no thanks worse starting defensive forward in basketball, he makes Chris Bosh look serviceable. Out of all the players that we named I like Favors the best, hes still got more upside, but agreed Big Al could obviously help us......he loves Boston and playing with what we got would only elevate his game.

yup, sorry i did mean lee..

i agree Lee is bad on defense.. but under the circumstances we'd be lookiing to do a trade for, he again provides us with help in two area's- offense and rebounding.

again im looking at the alternatives here..

whats the likelyhood of a 21, 22 or 51st pick being able to give us the sort of rebounding Lee provides? certianly we could pick up a defensive player or two already better, but would the gain on defense make up for the offense we'd lose by not going after Lee? We'd have a plethera of guys who can defend, but our offense/rebounding is where we need the most help

same criteria for looking for Bigs in f/a.. Lee is both a better scorer and rebounding than 95% of the guys who'll test f/a this summer.