Celtics Trends to This Juncture

Thanks to dboss, the calculations of the advanced Celtics stats (which have their own thread) have been automated and updated. The most recent four games will be posted by late tonight and will be updated for tonight's game by tomorrow. But I have the data, and I thought it might useful to post some trend information. I hasten to say that I didn't witness the past four games, so I'm basing this analysis only on statistical information and insights gained by following the games online, through the press, and via this board.

It appears that the Celtics' season so far can be divided into two parts:

Part 1: Fine win against the Cavs in Cleveland and four other convincing wins, with an average 21.6 point spread in the Celts' favor

Part 2: Struggles, including their only loss, resulting in an average 1.7 point spread in the Celts' favor

During the first five games, there were two offensive statistical elements leading the way for the Celts (compared with opponents): three-point contributions and sharing of the offensive scoring. Other contributing factors included opportunism (points scored as a percentage of shots taken), transition contribution, defensive alertness (success of defensive gambles taken), and offensive chemistry (as measured by assists as a percentage of made field goals).

During those same five games, there were three areas in which opponents were having better success than the Celtics: offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding, and point in the paint.

During the three most recent games, the Celtics have made great improvement in defensive alertness, points in the paint, offensive rebounding (although the last game was a real stinker), defensive rebounding, and transition contribution.

Where their problems have occurred is in terms of huge deterioration in three-point shooting and some dropoff in offensive chemistry, offensive sharing of the ball, and opportunism.

To prove that statistics are not everything, the statistical alertness figure is only part of the defensive story. The Cs done fairly well in getting steals and blocks, while minimizing fouls committed. But quite obviously they have been very lax in defending the perimeter; there's no stat to measure that factor except the result—opponent three-point success. And, whereas three-pointers had more than four times the impact for the Celtics than their opponents during the first five games, the reverse has been true during the past two games.

There seems little question that indicators of fatigue are operating heavily: lower shooting percentages in all three areas (2-pointers, 3-pointers, free throws); weak defense against the 3-pointer; greater concentration of the offensive workload among fewer players. I'm betting we can expect a refreshed team to rebound big-time in these areas.

But the factor on which I'd like to focus is offensive chemistry. At the beginning of the season, I felt the team was moving without the ball, using the screen-and-roll, spacing the floor, making the extra pass (sometimes to a fault), and swinging the ball as well as at any time during the Garnett era. I wasn't overly excited that so much of the offense was resulting in 3s because I prefer a balanced offense. But at least it was producing good offensive opportunities.

I haven't seen the recent games, I'm guessing that there's been a decline in these areas. Fatigue could play a role, but sloppy habits and lack of focus could also be contributors. This is the key area I'm going to be watching tonight.

Sam

Sam thanks for sharing this information. I think the grueling schedule certainly did have something to do with the drop off in both defensive and offensive clarity.

But it did seem that Doc leaned more on the starters duirng the stretch of games were we began to struggle (not counting the Utah game last night)

I think it begins at the defensive end, where rotations were slow or not coming at all. Defensive works is just that work. It takes a lot of energy to play the type of defense that the Celtics want to establish this year. When the defense breaks down, the offense seems to follow suit.

I think the addition of Wallace has taken a team that likes to shoot the three to a new level. Ok so he spreads the floor but his misses are coming from wide open looks where his man is sagging off. I believe his most effective contribution on offense is in the post where the opportunity for an offensive rebound could be enhanced as well as his shooting percentage.

Not trying to point any fingers but he does represent a significant element that at times may go against the grain.

Interesting post game comments form Rondo. I can see why some people think he is arrogant but I love his directness and how he really does say what he feels. When asked about the benefits of a few days rest and how that helped the team, he replied that the old guys needed the rest. When asked about his matchup with Williams and the fact that Williams has a bad back, Rondo replied "I have a bad back too"

The Utah game put Boston back on track but if they think the early schedule was not too kind wait until Decemebr when they will pack their bags for 11 out of 14 on the rd or something like that. I think Decemeber will pretty much make or break their chances for getting the best record this year.

dboss