Celtics Statistical Trends So Far

Throughout the season, I'm going to be posting some selected statistics based on season-to-date data, which I'm updating (in my own files) after every game. I'm deliberately focusing on calculations that provide a comparative context, as I believe stats without context are usually too superficial.

These data are intended to reveal upward and downward trends over time. I won't post them game-by-game because changes are too slight to be meaningful; so I'll be posting them after each "batch" of five games. I'll also be making some remarks about implications of the statistics. In addition to year-to-date information, I'll be showing the corresponding figure from last season as a point of reference. Although they haven't yet played five games, I'm displaying (below) the implications (with no data shown) after four games. My intention is to display actual data after the next game.

Obviously, these stats are primarily offensive in nature because that's what's available. I could have included blocks and steals, but they're such a small element of defense that I'd rather depend on observation while note the absence of defensive stats in these data. How un-Hollinger of me.

• Gradually improving the assists-per-made field goal figure until they're now one percentage point above last year's final figure.

• Gradually improving in lack of turnovers as a % of opponents' lack of turnovers...now slightly better than last season. (Apparent improvement is misleading, as the data are inordinately skewed by single-digit turnovers in the first Wiz game. Several more games will be needed to establish a real trend.)

• Stabilizing in terms of defensive boards as a % of available defensive boards—8 percentage points ahead of last season.

• Stabilizing in terms of 3-point scoring as a % of total points scored...the same as last season.

• Gradually slipping in terms of offensive boards as a % of available offensive boards—5 percentage points below last year.

• Gradually slipping in terms of fast break points as a % of total points scored, but still 8 percentage points ahead of last season.

• Gradually slipping in terms of points in the paint as a % of total points scored...3 percentage points below last season.

Early implications:

Two of the most positive measures involve assists-to-field goals (one of many indicators of offensive chemistry) and defensive rebounding (largely due to improvement by Bass and by Sullinger's arrival). However, in terms another indicator of offensive chemistry (lack of turnovers), the news has been bad in three of the four games, with one excellent game bucking the trend.

I also like the fact that they're not three-pointer crazy (compared with last year), which was one of my concerns going into the season.

There's still a need to reverse several negative trends in terms of: offensive rebounding, fast break points and points in the paint (these last two elements, in combination, underscore the probability of settling for too many jumpers).

So, based on these stats alone, only in terms of defensive rebounds and assists are the Celtics really playing satisfactory ball so far. Everything else warrants improvement—from minor to major. And obviously, (based on observation), the defense in general needs to be far more consistent. They can't always depend on staying close and shutting down opponents at the very end of games.

My game balls for this one go to Terry, Bass and Wilcox for stepping up and reversing a losing proposition. Yes, KG, Pierce and Rondo were all key to the win, but this trio were the pivotal players.

I don't know how many Celtics games (if any, other than the Bucks game with Bob Heckler) I'll be seeing in the next week, so I'll look forward to the game-on threads.

Go Celtics!

Sam