Summer Forecast: Focus on JET

ESPNBOSTON.COM

By Chris Forsberg

As this year's Summer Forecast series rolls into Week 2, we shift the focus to predictions on how some of the Celtics key players will perform next season. Call it Expectations Week (yeah, we know, not nearly as cool as Shark Week).

SUMMER FORECAST

For three weeks in August we'll break up the summer doldrums by trying to predict exactly how the 2012-13 season will play out for the Boston Celtics.

We tip it off with maybe the team's biggest offseason acquisition: Jason Terry. The 13-year veteran, inked for three seasons utilizing the full value of the midlevel exception, gracefully transitioned to a reserve role during his time in Dallas and thrived (averaging at least 15.1 points per game in each of those seasons and winning the league's sixth man award in 2009). Terry also brings eight seasons of playoff experience, playing a crucial role in the Mavericks' 2011 title run.

My expectations? Terry should emerge as the no-conscious bench scorer that the Celtics have so desperately craved since winning their own title in 2008. That's a bolder prediction than you might initially think. There's a pattern here where Boston has struggled to find offensive consistency off its bench. Each year, the preseason buzz is about how this is the reserve cast that finally pushes Boston over the top. And, invariably, the underproduction of the bench is pegged as one of the reasons for Boston's inability to achieve its ultimate goal in recent seasons.

The Celtics have tried all sorts of iterations, including last year when they went with characters over pure talent. Injuries didn't help matters as the team lost reserves like Jeff Green, Chris Wilcox, and Jermaine O'Neal during the season, but there's renewed hope this offseason that Boston has cobbled together the sort of depth that might distinguish it from its chief rivals.

That confidence comes in large part from Terry, who oozes it.

Accepting that sixth man role takes a special breed, and Terry embraces it. While some come to Boston and walk on eggshells because of the presence of a veteran core, Terry won't be overwhelmed after his time in Dallas.

Let's face it, here's a guy that got a tattoo of the Celtics logo spinning the Larry O'Brien trophy this past weekend, and he hasn't even put on his new No. 4 jersey yet. This is almost certainly the JET's last flight and he seems pretty confident about his chances of adding some additional title hardware before his final descent.

There's a lot to like about his game beyond the obvious. He's a combo guard who can handle the ball (and create his own offense that way). That affords Boston the luxury of not having to carry a pure backup ball-handler, as the likes of Terry and Keyon Dooling can run the offense when Rondo's on the bench. His 3-point shooting should ease the loss of Ray Allen. And Terry is insanely durable, while the Celtics as a whole has been anything but over the last four years.

Read on for our panel predictions.


Greg Payne, ESPN Boston

I expect Terry to deliver something that's eluded Boston for the greater part of the last five seasons: bench consistency. Finally (finally!) the Celtics have someone who embraces and prides himself on the sixth-man role and, even if he isn't a spring chicken anymore, Terry won't have any trouble filling it up off the bench. He'll probably be more of a combo guard than anything, as I envision him bringing the ball up and scoring off the dribble, or dishing early in the offense and being set up for open looks later in the shot clock. He'll knock down a boatload of 3-pointers, and he'll be good enough in the clutch to make everyone miss Ray Allen that much less. But that's just on-the-court stuff. Off the floor, he'll be a veteran leader and a great voice in the locker room (he and Keyon Dooling need a radio show or a podcast or something). Having won a championship, he'll only add to the never-say-die attitude we've seen out of this group in recent seasons, particularly last year.


Brian Robb, CelticsHub

I expect offensive consistency and creativity off the bench. Both have been foreign concepts for the Celtics reserves over the past few seasons, as the team’s overall offensive output has steadily decreased largely due to a lack of serviceable production from the second unit. The arrival of Terry should change that. The former Maverick played the offensive-sparkplug role to perfection in Dallas, using his improvisation and shooting ability to average 15-plus points per game for the past six seasons. It’s a different supporting cast in Boston, but a revamped Celtics bench, anchored by Terry, should excel as a unit, before the sixth man joins the starters for crunch time most games. Additionally, I expect a full healthy season from the 6-foot-2 guard, who has missed a mere 28 games in his 13-year NBA career, bringing some reliability for Doc Rivers to turn to off the pine. Perhaps most importantly, though, Terry gives Doc another new option at the end of games now in isolation plays besides Paul Pierce. With this additional wrinkle, unpredictability should return to the C's offense late in contests for the first time in a long time.


Tom Westerholm, Celtics Town

One change that Celtics fans will notice with Terry will be in the type of cuts he utilizes to get open. The majority of Ray Allen's 3-point attempts came off long, elaborate cross-court movements involving several screens. Terry played differently, but still effectively, in Dallas. Where most of Allen's 3-point attempts were thought-out and premeditated, Terry's are often more of a sneak-attack. While a play develops and the ball-handler drives to the basket, Terry stands on the right wing and makes his way slowly to one side, lulling his defender into a false sense of security before taking two quick steps along the 3-point line and finding himself open. Rajon Rondo, with his driving skills and extremely high basketball IQ, is uniquely suited to this kind of trickery and should be able to capitalize on Terry's on-court spontaneity.

112288

I experienced the thrill and agony of watching Terry end a 10 game Celtics win streak February 10, 2011 at the Garden. Thrill because I was in the 4th row. Agony because Terry stole the game from us. I was reminded of the line from Butch Cassidy - "Who are those guys?" only it was "Who is this guy?" He devastated our D with his moves and shots. 101-97 final score. Terry played 35 minutes off the bench; scored 17 points on 7-15 shooting and chipped in 2 steals and 2 assists. Ray was 9-18 and 24 points. 1 assist, no steals. Pretty evenly matched, but Terry made his own shot and played better D. I took my son and daughter-in-law to the game. She was 6.5 months pregnant at the time. Now the Celts are in my grandson's blood.

The fact that he has only missed 28 games his entire career is mind-boggling.

I liked the analysis by Tom Westerholm above except for the part about Rondo etc. Will Rondo be spending a lot of time on the court with Terry? Well, Terry averaged over 31mpg last season and has averaged 33mpg for his career, so there is a good chance they'll be playing together. A short backcourt at 6'1" and 6'2". I would think that pairing Terry and Lee would work better. Then we'd have some size with Lee and Terry can still sneak off to the corner or start to create his own shot and pass to the "3 and D" Lee.

I really like that Terry can create his own shot, especially coming off the bench. By definition (usually, anyway) the 2nd unit players are inferior to the starters. This isn't always true, starting Sefelosha over Harden is an example where it isn't, but it usually is. As such, the chances of an offensive breakdown that results in a rushed buzzerbeater is more likely. Having someone on the 2nd unit who says "give me the ball, give me any kind of pick at all, and I'll sink it" is very, very valuable. And Sully is just the type of guy I want setting that pick.

Ray Allen was the ultimate team player, but coming off the bench was probably not going to be as productive because of the high % of his fgm that were assisted and Rondo wasn't as likely to be on the floor with him. Put simply, Ray Allen was at his most productive when he had help and much less so when he didn't get any. Terry is his own help.

This is the biggest off-season pickup since KG in 2008.

bob

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Hi,
Speaking about back-court on the 2nd unit. I wonder if JT's going to be more of a PG. If not - it's going to be PG by committee, isn't it? Of course, there's KD....

AK

An excerpt from an interview with The Jet on ESPN from Celtics.com. This guy just keeps sounder better and better and better.

Well, your strong core group of veterans – Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Rondo, obviously the best point guard in the league,” Terry said. “One of the greatest coaches to ever coach the game in Doc Rivers. And then a young nucleus. I mean, the young nucleus we have with the guys we drafted are incredible, and a healthy Avery Bradley. I think we’ll be right there at the end, competing against Miami to win it all.” …

“Obviously I did it with the Mavericks before the season the year we won it,” Terry said while showing off his new tattoo. “So hopefully this year, again, we’ll have the luck of the leprechaun and we’ll get it done again. I definitely believe last year [the Celtics] were right there. They’re already a championship team. They just needed a little jet fuel,” referencing his “Jet” nickname. …

“I’m just excited to be in Celtic green. Again, the mystique, the championship pedigree, the heritage, just being in Boston, it’s going to be great for me,” he said. “Coming from Dallas, that was a great franchise, but this organization here is first class and I just can’t wait to put that uniform on.”


bob


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There once was a Celtics team (actually 13 of them) that truly expected to win. Not hoped to win....EXPECTED to win. Anything else was considered akin to a clerical error.

Since that time, some great Celtics teams have won some great championships. They've had the requisite intensity and talent to be champions. But I've never again sensed the feeling of EXPECTING to win on a consistent basis. This kind of pronouncement, IF it's not just hope masquerading as expectation, has the kind of aura that I recall from half a century ago. IF it's REALLY expectation, I can't wait for it to permeate the roster because then we could see something truly special.

Sam

This twitter from Xmas. It appears the signing of Jason Terry is already paying dividends, he's in the gym working with a rookie already.

Had a great workout today wit @jasonterry31 I thought I can shoot...lol #lightsout..
about 23 hours ago via Twitter for iPhoneReplyRetweetFavorite

@Dchristmas22
Dionte Christmas

bob


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One thing missing from all this great info on JET

UofA, UofA, UofA

it is rare that a guard is able to be really effective at the point and the 2.

I watched Terry for years down here in Atlanta and he has ice water in his veins.

The pairing of the guards will be a nightmare for teams to figure out.

KC, Sam, Frank and Bob were 4 outstanding guards that played together.

I can not recall a time since then that the Celtics had this level of depth on the team.

That group played a lot of years together and in the 59-60 season the Celtics averaged almost 125 PPG. KC and Sam were still young pups at the time. 7 players averaged double figures.

Our group of guards are younger than they were so let the fast breaks begin!

P.S. Bill Sharman was on that team too. how could i leave him out. If the Celtics could play with that many guards perhaps my concerns about a glut at guard is suspect.

dboss

An article, dated 8/17, from ESPN Boston (no name) about Terry. Another mini-KG?

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4697010/terry-looking-forward-to-feeding-off-kg


CANTON, Mass. -- Jason Terry wasn't chasing a paycheck when he chose to join the Boston Celtics this past July.

Sure, the $5 million he's set to make this coming season is nothing to snuff at, but his new deal is an incentive-laden package more than anything else. It's a deal forged on opportunity -- the chance to play for head coach Doc Rivers, the chance to compete alongside Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, the chance to bury a 3-pointer after receiving Rajon Rondo's latest "I need a replay" behind-the-back pass, and the chance to chase his second NBA championship, all in an environment that places real value on things like teamwork, self-sacrifice, work ethic, and a never-say-die attitude.

Terry is built for a place like Boston, where his charismatic personality and veteran experience should only enhance an already tight-knit locker room filled with accomplished resumes.

"More veteran leadership, experience," Terry said Thursday of what he'll bring to the Celtics' locker room. "Being that I've played in two finals, I've won a championship, and so, I think that alone speaks for itself. And you've got great leaders already. It's not a situation where I'm coming in and being the vocal guy and all that. I'm just going to play my role, and again, feed off guys like Kevin Garnett."

Though Terry, Garnett, and Pierce have known each other for years, their relationships as teammates will undoubtedly need to be strengthened. Their time as on-court rivals was intense at times, as multiple Celtics-Mavericks matchups came down to last-minute possessions and final-second shots. But for Terry, those battles helped to form the base layer of the bonds to come.

"Always huge respect," Terry said of his prior relationships with his new teammates. "Always tremendous respect for the way they play the game, and the way they carry themselves, and that's it. Because I knew every time we matched up against them we had to play, and you had to fight for every inch of the court. Those are the type of guys that you want to play with."

The same goes for Rivers, who reached out to Terry in the opening minutes of free agency.

"Huge, huge respect for what Doc Rivers has done in this league as a player and as a coach," Terry said. "Hall of Fame, no question. For him to call me on the first hour of free agency, (I was) just overjoyed. But it meant a lot. It definitely meant a lot to me."

Terry compared his own personality to Garnett's, in that they're both overly enthusiastic at times, but having another Garnett-like presence in the locker room should only help things. In many ways, Garnett's identity is the one the locker room should continue to try to emulate. Fiercely loyal to his teammates and coaches, but sporting a pretty hefty funny bone with his larger-than-life personality, Garnett keeps things balanced. When it's OK to joke, he'll lead the charge. When it's time to work, he makes everyone fall in line.

Terry's demeanor is indeed the same, even if it's not quite on Garnett's level (but, really, whose is?). Listen to or read through his comments and you'll see repeated signs of that same balance. There's a fun-loving personality wrapped around an overwhelming allegiance to teammates and winning. He said he and Garnett have been keeping correspondence, and he'll soon touch base with Pierce and Rondo.

"I've texted KG a couple times. I'll contact Paul and Rondo this week," Terry said. "(I) go back-and-forth with Doc and (president of basketball operations) Danny (Ainge) on text messages, but I'm just excited. Just excited to be playing with a group of guys that understand (not just how) to play the game, but the way they play the game."

Mixed in with the battle-tested veterans is a surprisingly potent mix of youthful talent, with Jeff Green, Brandon Bass, Courtney Lee, and Avery Bradley all set to play significant roles for Boston next season. There's pressure to perform for that group, but, in accordance with Garnett's style, Terry's already looking forward to mentoring anyone in need, particularly guys like Lee and Bradley who share his position.

"For me, I'm a veteran, I'm going to be able to not only show them, but then I'm going to teach them and I'm going to talk to them and those are guys that I will take under my wing," Terry said. "If I'm in the gym, they're in the gym, that type of deal. And that's just how I've been everywhere I've played."

The Celtics will need that younger core group to come through in a significant way, as the road to the championship is arguably more difficult than it was a year ago. Miami's still Miami, the Oklahoma City Thunder are still lethal, and the Los Angeles Lakers are reloaded. Combine all of that with an improved Atlantic Division and the 2012-2013 campaign could be one prolonged bar fight, as Garnett might call it. Don't expect the confidence-laden Terry to shy away from such competition, though. Expect a head-first dive, instead.

"Every season is a challenge. Obviously, 82 games, we've got to stay healthy," Terry said. "That may be the number one thing. Older, veteran team. But we've still got a young nucleus. We've got to keep our minutes manageable, but we're trying to win, and we're not going to cruise into this thing. We know who we're shooting at. The champs, that's (Boston's) rival. I walk right into the fire, and I love it."


bob


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Just excited to be playing with a group of guys that understand (not just how) to play the game, but the way they play the game."

love this line!!

beat