Summer Forecast: Gone by November?

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4706468/summer-forecast-gone-by-november


Summer Forecast: Gone by November
August, 16, 2013
AUG 16
5:00
PM ET
By Chris Forsberg | ESPNBoston.com



Each weekday for a three-week span, our summer panel of prognosticators -- a motley crew featuring our friends in the Celtics blogging community -- will join forces to tell you how the 2013-14 season will play out for Boston. We'll gaze into our crystal balls and attempt to answers all your questions before this year's team even hits the floor together for the first time. Today's Celtics Summer Forecast topic: Which player won't make the opening-day roster?

SUMMER FORECAST 2013

For three weeks in August we'll break up the summer doldrums by trying to predict exactly how the 2013-14 season will play out for the Boston Celtics. A rundown and recap of the series:

* Aug. 14: Predict the record
* Aug. 15: How does 2013-14 season end?
* Aug. 16: Gone by November?
* Aug. 19: Who starts at center?
* Aug. 20: Expectations for Kelly Olynyk?
* Aug. 21: When will Rajon Rondo return?
* Aug. 22: The biggest overachiever?
* Aug. 23: The biggest underachiever?
* Aug. 26: Who emerges as team MVP?
* Aug. 27: Expectations for Jeff Green?
* Aug. 28: Expectations for Avery Bradley?
* Aug. 29: Most intriguing game?
* Aug. 30: Most intriguing camp storyline?

We couldn't even pose this question before the Celtics (sorta) answered it. Boston traded second-year center Fab Melo to the Memphis Grizzlies on Thursday along with cash considerations while bringing back the nonguaranteed contract of Donte Greene. Barring any additional offseason moves, it's likely that Boston will waive Greene and save $1 million in salary, dipping them below the luxury tax line -- something that president of basketball operations Danny Ainge has stressed his team in transition desires to do in order to help avoid looming repeater penalties in future seasons.

The Celtics currently have 14 guaranteed contracts on the roster, but we'll still pose the question as part of our summer series: Who won't be here when the regular season begins?

The guess here? Jordan Crawford. The Celtics cleared a little bit of their frontcourt logjam by dealing away Melo, but there's still a surplus of shooting guards. Crawford became expendable when Boston brought back MarShon Brooks as part of the blockbuster swap with the Brooklyn Nets.

With the uncertainty surrounding Rajon Rondo and his recovery from a torn ACL, there's a line of thinking that Crawford and his passing skills could hold value as a ball-handling guard should Rondo not be ready for the start of the season. But, ultimately, the question is whether Boston sees a long-term future with 24-year-old Crawford (who is due $2.1 million this season and is pegged at a $3.2 million qualifying offer next season). At the moment, it's hard to see where he fits.

Alas, it takes two to tango and Boston needs to find a home for Crawford. Acquired at the trade deadline, Crawford averaged 9.1 points and 2.5 assists over 21.6 minutes per game in 27 appearances for Boston. He appeared in five playoff games, but his most memorable moment might have been barking at Carmelo Anthony after a Game 5 win in New York.

Votes were split among our panel, with 36.3 percent suggesting that Boston will make no further moves (at least before the start of the season. Crawford was the most popular player to move, garnering 27.2 percent of the vote. Three other players: Brandon Bass, Gerald Wallace, and Kris Humphries received at least one vote apiece as well.


John Karalis, Red's Army (Jordan Crawford)

By November? I doubt anything big will happen by then, which means Kris Humphries and Gerald Wallace will get a chance to play and audition for other teams that might have a need for one of them at the trade deadline. The Celtics do need to address the logjam at the 2 guard, so I'm sure they'll basically tell teams Crawford can be had for nothing. That may be more wishful thinking than anything else, but the team does need to ditch someone, and someone has to be willing to take him for free.


Jeff Clark, Celtics Blog (Brandon Bass)

Bass is good enough to be a contributor on a playoff team. That isn't in the near future for this team and his replacement is already on the roster in Jared Sullinger. Bass seems the most reasonable piece to move that has legitimate value in trade.


Mike Dyer, Celtics Life (Jordan Crawford)
SportsNation
Who won't be here in November?


Only Crawford is gone by Oct. 30 as Ainge finds someone to take him for a conditional pick in 2062, allowing the Celtics to further slide beneath the luxury tax. I think that, by the time the trade deadline hits in February, Brandon Bass and Courtney Lee have new homes, and if anyone will bite on Kris Humphries (without giving the Celtics salaries that bog them down in 2014 and beyond) he will be to. When push comes to shove, Ainge is going to move the guys who are highly unlikely to be here for the next era of greatness (or merely above-averageness) to allow players like Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk to get the playing time necessary to develop. However, a bigger deal, like one for Bass or Lee, is more likely to happen closer to the deadline when a contender who is only a piece or two away may be a little more desperate to make something happen.


Jared Weiss, CLNS Radio (Kris Humphries)

With Melo out, the next guy up is Kris Humphries. Although Humphries would be a valuable player to the worst rebounding team in the league, Danny Ainge will have a special “Hump Trade Inquiry” line installed on his office phone. There will be some team out there looking at its own roster during the preseason and realizing how badly it needs to rent some size, or get into the 2014 free agency sweepstakes. While the Celtics would love to make a run at a big-money free agent, they would be just as happy to secure a young talent and avoid the massive risk of a wide-open free agent market. With Bass, Sullinger and Olynyk all preferred down the road over Humphries at the 4, he will be the top priority on the chopping block.


Kevin O'Connor, Celtics Blog (Brandon Bass)

I don’t think that the Fab Melo trade is the end of moves this offseason. The roster is still completely out of balance and I believe either Brandon Bass or Jordan Crawford have to go. Both players are redundant compared to the other players at their respective positions, and another point guard or center should be added. I think Brandon Bass makes the most sense to deal for a true center. Teams know what they are going to get from Bass and I don’t think his value would rise if Danny Ainge waited until the trade deadline to shop him. If Bass is dealt to open up a roster spot, a veteran point guard or center could be brought in to balance the roster.


Blasts from our bench

* Jay Ouellette, Red's Army (No moves): I think the roster will remain intact for the early part of the season, showcasing (thus another factor that will contribute to unintentional losing) the guys they want to trade. By the All-Star break you'll see more activity than you would before November.

* Jonathan Lemons, CLNS Radio (Gerald Wallace): At 31 years old and with 12 years in the league, Wallace has a lot of mileage on the tires and his game, which relies almost entirely on his athleticism, is in decline. That and the fact that he is owed $30 million over the next three years, makes him a poor fit for this Celtics youth movement.

* KWAPT, Red's Army (No moves): Owner Wyc Grousbeck and Danny Ainge will stand pat, at least until the trade deadline.

* Jon Duke, Celtics Stuff Live (No moves): It won't be from lack of trying, but Ainge will have a hard time moving any of these players prior to the start of the regular season. However once injuries take root and team needs become apparent, it will be Lee, Bass, and Humphries drawing the most interest.


bob
MY NOTE:  If Danny could have found a new home for Crawford by now, he'd already be gone.  There are no takers.  That doesn't mean there won't be as teams go through training camp and realize that they don't like their SG bench, but there aren't now.  As far as Hump goes, we might see him gone by the trade deadline and playoff bound teams are looking for another muscle rebounder, but at $12M they'll wait until the last second to pick up the last of his contract.  If there's one thing I know, for sure, is that Danny won't sit back and think he's good.

.

I have read a few posts that suggest that  Hump can play center.  I doubt that.  

Most likely scenario given the current availability of too many 4's and not enough 5's, is a rotation of 4's where the Celtics will play 2 PF.  

So until a trade is made we will probably see Green at SF with Hump and Sully, Or Green with Sully and KO.

Unless we are able to secure at least one really good long term player by moving Hump we would be in good shape by just letting that outrageous 12 million expire.

I think we need to be very patient and be content with having a very unbalanced team on the court this year.  The future draft  picks however are likely to come into play if Danny decides to make a deal.  I think that it is very likely that Danny will make at least one more move to sure up the PG position or the center position.  

As long as we can stay away from those dog contracts like the one Wallace has we should be in good shape.

dboss