Revenge of the Celtics, The Sequel

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2012/9/24/3372452/boston-celtics-previews-2012-2013-nba-festivus-hook


The Boston Celtics didn't get broken up as
predicted. Kevin Garnett didn't retire. Paul Pierce is still in green.
What now? The Hook's first NBA Festivus preview of the preseason digs
in.













NBA Festivus has begun! Over the next five weeks The Hook
will pass judgment on the NBA's 29-1/2 teams* right along with SB
Nation's 30 awesome team blogs and our friends from outside the network.


* There's no way the Charlotte Bobcats qualify as a complete team
yet. This is what happens when you embrace the Presti Plan. You get a
fractional team for multiple years. In that case, maybe we ought to list
just 29 teams, thanks to Rob Hennigan and Orlando.


First up is the Boston Celtics, America's Team. The team has escaped death dismantlement twice now. I believe that means only good things can now happen in the Celtics' wake.

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More Boston Celtics Previews: Offseason analysis | CelticsBlog's take.

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FEATS OF STRENGTH


The Celtics may be older than the technology that gave the world Joe
Biden's hair plugs. But those dudes can still defend. Boston finished
No. 1 in the league in defensive efficiency last season, just edging the
Chicago Bulls (led by former C's assistant Tom Thibodeau) and beating
No. 3 Philadelphia by a full point per 100 possessions. As a team,
Boston was two years older than Chicago and more than four years older
than Philadelphia. But two key defenders -- Rajon Rondo and Avery
Bradley -- are pretty young, and will be around for this season.


Rondo, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce have been the on-court pillars of Boston's defense over the years. That has never wavered.




In the five seasons since the Garnett and Ray Allen trades, the
Celtics have finished with the league's top defense twice, finished No. 2
twice and -- in that injury-ravaged 2010 season -- finished No. 5 once.
(The club went to Game 7 of the NBA Finals that year.) This team can
defend. That Boston finished No. 1 last season should give no one qualms
about this team's ability to muck it up and stop opponents.


Boston has two key defensive strengths: shot defense (No. 2 behind
Chicago) and turnover creation (No. 4). Mixing the two is potent and
fairly rare: no team had top-5 ratings in both categories last season.
When you think about it in practical terms, you see what makes the combo
so powerful: opponents get fewer shots than usual because of the
turnovers, and then have trouble converting those against the swarm.
It's devastating.


The Celtics were not good on offense -- see more in Airing of
Grievances below -- but they did shoot the ball well. Boston finished
No. 5 in field goal percentage, No. 10 in effective field goal
percentage and No. 7 in three-point percentage. The last figure will
likely take a blow, however: Ray Allen, the greatest shooter of
all-time, left for Miami. His likely replacement, Bradley, shot well
from long-range last season, but per minute, Allen shot threes four
times as frequently as the youngster. Boston already took threes less
frequently than most clubs. Losing Ray could exacerbate that.




AIRING OF GRIEVANCES



Overall, the offense looks like some kind of mess. Boston has
survived it in the past, at least in the regular season, thanks to that
defense. But much of Boston's playoff undoing against the Heat in the
past two postseasons has been owed to the gross offense the Celtics
produce. Boston finished No. 27 on offense last season, essentially tied
with the Wizards and Pistons and behind the Warriors, Kings, Nets and
Cavaliers. As mentioned, shooting wasn't the problem, though Boston
lacked (and will now lack even more) enough three-point shooters to take advantage of a strength in long distance conversion rate.


But Boston -- as has always been the case during the Rondo era --
gives up too many possessions in the form of turnovers (No. 25 in
turnover rate) and gets relatively few second chances (dead last in
offensive rebounding rate). Those two problems allow Boston to go long
stretches without points, especially when Pierce is on the bench.
Bradley is a better defender than Allen, but that swap is going to pose
additional problems for Boston's offense.


Jason Terry can help stop the bleeding ... if he gets plenty of
playing time. We know Doc Rivers trusts Bradley -- he put Ray Allen on
the bench in favor of Bradley. Will he put Bradley on the bench in
crunch time to get J.E.T. out there, or will we perhaps see some
smallball with Pierce sliding up to power forward? Time will tell.


Heretofore unaddressed is possibly the most insane contract of the
offseason: Jeff Green for four years at $36 million. Rivers reportedly
sees him as a smallball power forward. Those who recall the Oklahoma
City Thunder's use of Green in that exact role must find this
development curious. Join the club. I just can't figure out what it is
that Green does that Boston lacks. Green is purported to be a defender
and playmaker. You saw the team's defensive credentials (almost entirely
without Green, save a small portion of the 2010-11 season) above. Rondo
averaged 11.7 assists per game last season. I don't get it.




FESTIVUS MIRACLES



It will be miraculous if ...


Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen do not have a very public and very awkward hug before the first Miami-Boston meeting.

Kevin Garnett manages not to roundhouse a Brooklyn Net (specifically Mirza Teletovic).

Jeff Green's play is criticized by a broadcaster. (Jeff Van Gundy is not applicable.)

Boston beats Miami in a playoff series, should they meet again.

Darko Milicic matters for reasons other than humor.

Jared Sullinger is not awarded 14,000 Tommy Points.

Paul Pierce goes a month without reminding us he's secretly the funniest NBA star on the planet.

Rajon Rondo is added to three-point shoot-out at All-Star break.

Everything goes peachy all season.

THE HUMAN FUND


Let's get sincere.

Team MVP: Kevin Garnett, possibly still the most effective defender in the game.

Team X-Factor: Avery Bradley.

Team Finish: 3rd in Atlantic, 6th in East

Most Likely Championship Victory: Emmy for Most Grizzled Team (even odds with the Memphis Grizzlies).




bob
My Note: I don't think he's giving as much credit to JET as he should. The man can shoot with or without the ball. Ray was pretty much without the ball. According to 82games.com, 83% of Ray's jumpshots were assisted while only 55% of JET's were. JET can make things happen while Ray needed Rondo to make things happen. He didn't mention Lee's contribution even though he's a likely starter for the first 2 months. As far as it being a miracle if "everything goes peachy all season" goes, that's why you have a bench, and we have one helluva bench. One thing I do agree with is Sully's going to corner the market on Tommy Points. Tommy loves smashmouth basketball.







.

This guy is a lot more absorbed with sharpening his word usage than with a really insightful, in-depth analysis. For example, does anyone seriously believe a look into the Celtics' crystal ball this season could legitimately be bereft of the word "transition?"

But, on the other hand, he's not afraid to make predictions, so that qualifies him for my Personal Peachy Parade.

Sam