Away For a Bit 2 (The best sequel since Godfather II)

Gentlemen:

Looks like the cows are coming home today (or in my case, stopping by for a visit to chew some cud).


Beat, I hope you don't mind me copying your format on this. I thought it was a good one, and in true Hollywood style, why come up with an original idea when you can just bang out a sequel to one that worked ?


I've been a bit crazed over the last month, and have been on the road a lot, so I haven't had time to post. I've popped in for 5 minutes or so here or there to see what people were talking about, but haven't been able to join in the fun.

I hope all of you guys are doing well.

After all the rumors of deals that didn't end up happening for both of our teams leading up to the deadline, I'm assuming you guys are looking forward to some good on-court action as much as I am. Too bad #24 won't be playing, as it would be nice to see both squads at full strength, but given that some of the Celts (KG, especially) are still recovering from various injuries, maybe that equalizes things a bit. Should be a good game either way, although it doesn't quite feel like the Clash of the Titans we were all thinking it would be back in October.


A few quick thoughts:

1. I know some of you guys were really wanting to move Ray's deal, but I think, based on what was available, you guys dodged a bullet by not making a panic move. Kevin Martin is injury-prone and plays NO defense, and is locked into long-term money, so that felt like a bad fit to me.

Even worse, Ray and Perk for Monta and Biedrins would have been an unmitigated disaster for Boston. Ellis is fun to watch on a bad team, and puts up numbers b/c of his high volume and the pace at which they play, but he is incredibly inefficient. He puts up A LOT of shots while the rest of the team stands around and watches. He plays no defense either, and Rondo's obviously not going anywhere, so you can't play Ellis at the 1, so he would get KILLED at the 2 by guys like Kobe and Joe Johnson. He's locked into even bigger, longer money than Martin and would have really killed the Cs cap flexibility going forward.

Ellis would have been bad enough on his own, but trading Perk, a guy who is a borderline top 5 center (certainly top 10, no question), and who is uniquely qualified to handle both Howard and Shaq mano-a-mano in the post for a guy who plays absolutely NO d would have been sheer lunacy. I didn't understand that rumor at all, as you know the Cs have to deal with Howard and Shaq to get to the Finals (and probably Bynum/Gasol once there). To give away the second best defensive center in the league for Biedrins ? The Cavs and Magic would have been having a party if that had gone down.

If someone like Iguodala had been truly available it would have been a different story, but I wouldn't trade Ray just to trade him. It had to be for a piece that really made sense. Much less give Perk away in the process.


2. I like the Nate Rob trade. I was in agreement with those of you who were saying two months ago that the Cs needed a backup PG. This is a low risk (no long term salary), medium reward (Nate fills some real needs for the Cs) type of deal. First, Rondo can't carry the team with huge minutes all year and then be fresh for the playoffs. IN some of the Cs games I've watched in January, Rondo seemed to visibly tire late in the game, I assume from playing so many minutes for so many games. So Nate immediately helps there. He can do a bunch of things that Eddie simply couldn't do- handle the ball well, attack the rim, initiate, and if need be, carry the 2nd unit offense. In the games I've seen this year, Eddie's shot has been off, so since he's never been able to defend and has always been a ball-handling liability, it doesn't seem like you miss much by trading him.

He's a great sparkplug off the bench, even though he will drive you guys crazy with his shot selection on the nights he goes 2-15. BUt the next night he'll drop 30 on someone and make up for it. He's also an emotional, firey competitor, and it seems like the Cs needed a little breath of fresh air. Someone who is hungry and high-energy- he might give the whole team a bit of a lift. I don't think he'll be doing anything stupid like he was in NY with guys like KG and Pierce on the team, so I think he's a solid bench upgrade.

I'm not saying he puts them over the top- that will be up to the health of KG's knee more than anything else. BUt I think Nate was a good way to solve a problem.


3. Props to Jeb and BobH, for calling out the big minutes that Kobe was playing early in the year and predicting that it would have consequences. I was in agreement with you guys then and still am. Kobe was yet again his own worst enemy, trying to play through all sorts of injuries until he finally couldn't do it anymore. I actually think the ankle is a blessing in disguise and would like to see him sit for another few weeks and come back in mid-March. He finally seems to have realized (now that his consecutive game streak has ended) that the only thing that matters is being healthy for the playoffs.

And without him in the lineup, the other guys have had to be much more aggressive in their own games, which is a good thing. They've been playing their best team basketball of the season without him. They obviously can't win a title without him, but they can't win it with him jacking up 30 shots/game either. My ideal scenario is that Kobe comes back in mid-March fully healed and very well-rested, the returns to act as the facilitator in the offense , just taking his shots within the flow, as he did in 2001 when he came back from an injury with a few weeks left in the season and the Lakers went 15-1 in the playoffs. That record and Kobe acting as a facilitator were not coincidental.


4. The Cavs- I've got to say, I'm glad they didn't get Amare. As much as there was the possibility of it imploding with Amare, there was just as much a chance of him being a model citizen, and he would have been deadly in pick and rolls with LBJ. Jamison helps them some, but not that much. When he's playing, that means Varejao's on the bench, and as much as I don't like him, there's no doubt that Varejao is a very effective player for them. And Hickson, who has really been playing well isn/t going to be seeing any minutes now.

The Cavs may still win it all this year, but I think Jamison is only going to make a marginal difference. (I was one of the few who thought the Shaq trade was a good one for them last summer, and unfortunately, that;s turned out to be the case. I would have preferred to have been wrong, as Shaq has really made a huge difference there.)

With the Wiz having now gotten under the tax line, though, wouldn't it be hilarious if they screwed the Cavs by not buying out Big Z ? THAT would be awesome. Weren't these teams rivals ? I guess now that 2 of the Wiz's "BIg 3" are gone and the other one going to jail, it doesn't matter to them anymore, because their only rivals are going to be the Nets and Warriors in the John Wall derby.


Anyway, good luck tonight guys. Hopefully it's a tight game that could go either way like the game in Boston a few weeks ago was.

Best,

BSH

HEy NYC- good to see you again.

Can't complain about the game other than the final score, but for the Lakes to stay within 1 pt without Kobe (and have plenty of chances to win it defeated by boneheaded plays), I'm pretty happy. Was a lot of fun to watch and post with you guys.

I know I've been off-site for a month, but I feel like Rip Van Winkle looking at the pic of your son. He looks like he's gotten a lot bigger/older in the last month ?

Did I fall into some NBA trade deadline rumor mill-induced wormhole ?

Is it 2011 already ?

Hope you're well- whatever year it is.

If it is 2011, that explains why Ray and KG looked so good tonight.

They've gotten a lot of rest since the 2010 AS break!

sky

to your credit that's the first time you mentioned kobe.

Do I think Kobe would have made a difference ? Sure, but I'm not going to cry about it.

Cs deserved to win tonight b/c they made one more good play than the Lakers did, and it was fun to watch the Lakers as underdogs in their own building trying to beat the Cs.

I was pretty happy that they were able to go blow for blow with the Cs in a defensive slugfest in the 4th quarter- and almost win- all without #24.

So, I'm not dwelling on the game either way, or about the fact that KObe didn't play. It was just reality.

KInd of like I didn't put too much into the Lakers winning in Boston b/c KG was just coming back from his injury and looked pretty rusty to me. I didn't think that was representative of a Boston team that LA would see in the Finals any more than this laker team tonight was.

but that didn't make either game less fun to watch.

babyskyhook wrote:Do I think Kobe would have made a difference ? Sure, but I'm not going to cry about it.

Cs deserved to win tonight b/c they made one more good play than the Lakers did, and it was fun to watch the Lakers as underdogs in their own building trying to beat the Cs.

I was pretty happy that they were able to go blow for blow with the Cs in a defensive slugfest in the 4th quarter- and almost win- all without #24.

So, I'm not dwelling on the game either way, or about the fact that KObe didn't play. It was just reality.

KInd of like I didn't put too much into the Lakers winning in Boston b/c KG was just coming back from his injury and looked pretty rusty to me. I didn't think that was representative of a Boston team that LA would see in the Finals any more than this laker team tonight was.

but that didn't make either game less fun to watch.

The Lakers weren't "underdogs in their own building." The official line had them at -3 1/2.

Truth be told KG has only missed 11 games this season and PP 7.

Many teams have had as great or greater losses of key players. Problem is our key guys may have either returned too soon or returned unable to produce at past levels.

Here's to hoping the medical staff can rehab them completely, saw some signs last evening that were promising.

Tark

babyskyhook,

I was wondering what happened to you. I'm glad it was just a hiatus and that you're back. Nice to have polite perspective from other teams' fans.

I wish Kobe had played last night too. Win or lose, it would have been more realistic of what to expect in the playoffs (or, at least, what one of the teams need to work on before the playoffs). The word I'm hearing about Kobe is that this ankle injury may be more serious than originally let on (management not being honest about the true extent of a key player's injuries? NO!! The Celtics would never do that! That's a joke. They absolutely did that last year with KG). I heard that Kobe was asked about when he thought he'd be back and he said something like "well, it's not like it's just a sprained ankle. TENDONS have their own timeline". If he has a strained tendon, that could be longterm bad. I'd like to see the Lakers in the Finals (so we could prove '08 wasn't a fluke), but I'd rather see Kobe able to play more years at his previously high standard of performance. This tendon thing really could prove to undermine that.
http://www.insidesocal.com/lakers/2010/02/now-its-kobes-tendon.html

Here's an excerpt from a webpage about tendon injuries. The underline is mine:
Tendons are the tough fibers that connect muscle to bone. For example, see a picture of the Achilles tendon, which connects the calf muscle to the heel bone. Most tendon injuries occur near joints, such as the shoulder, elbow, knee, and ankle. A tendon injury may seem to happen suddenly, but usually it is the result of many tiny tears to the tendon that have happened over time.
Here's the link for the entire read. Obviously, we don't know EXACTLY what Kobe has or REALLY how bad it is. I don't think we should jump to conclusions, but it doesn't hurt to educate ourselves. I think that he sat out a Boston/LA game, as fierce a competitor as Kobe is, says something right there. http://health.yahoo.com/musculoskeletal-overview/tendon-injury-tendinopathy-topic-overview/healthwise--uh2114.html


As far as the Lakers are concerned, the temporary loss of Kobe could be a blessing in disguise. They are playing more triangle. They are moving the ball around and looking for each other. They played well last night. The backcourt shot like crap, but everybody was working hard. When Kobe's on the floor in his KoME avatar, they tend to just stand around and watch him. Who knew the Lakers had a bench?! Hell, I even gave some props to Sasha on another thread! I feel ill and need to lay down now.

Living in the SF bay area, I had a pretty strong opinion about the Ellis-Biedrins/Allen-Perk trade rumor. Didn't like it. Was ok with it just being Ellis/Allen (but not too much more than just "ok") but I absolutely agree with your perspective on Ellis. He's a Me-baller. A very talented one, but the ball goes through his hands. One of the great things about Ray Allen is that he doesn't need to have the ball in his hands all the time to scrore. He moves very well, and non-stop, without the ball.

I'm glad the Cavs didn't get Amar'e either. He's a matchup nightmare for everybody. Can you imagine a frontcourt of Shaq, Amar'e and LeBron? OMG.

Glad you're back. Stick around.

bob

Hey Bob-

I think you're right on about Kobe's ankle tendon. He originally was thinking it was just a typical ankle that got rolled, and practiced Monday. That's when his condition went backwards and he decided to sit more. Interesting stuff about how tendons get damaged that you dug up there.

You and Jeb were calling this from the first week of the year, about how the minutes would take a toll.

And I agree, I think him sitting will be a blessing in disguise on a few levels.

1. They play better team ball and the other guys have to be more assertive and take more responsibility.

2. Kobe's finger, elbow, back, knee, etc will all benefit from the rest as well, so there is a big overall benefit to him sitting for a bit.

3. As stated in the original thread, if he comes back in facilitator mode and keeps the rest of the guys involved/ more responsible, the team will be much better off for it and will be a good bet vs anyone to win it all again. If he goes into hero-baller mode, they won't get past Denver.


PS- Don't misunderstand my thoughts on the game last night. The Cs were the better team last night and they deserved to win. It was very much like the game in Boston but with a reversed outcome. Given the injuries to both teams this year, I don't look at either game as a barometer game.

it was a lot of fun to watch though.

And don't worry, I'll be on and off the board from time to time for some good exchanges of opinion with you guys.

steve3344 wrote:

babyskyhook wrote:Do I think Kobe would have made a difference ? Sure, but I'm not going to cry about it.

Cs deserved to win tonight b/c they made one more good play than the Lakers did, and it was fun to watch the Lakers as underdogs in their own building trying to beat the Cs.

I was pretty happy that they were able to go blow for blow with the Cs in a defensive slugfest in the 4th quarter- and almost win- all without #24.

So, I'm not dwelling on the game either way, or about the fact that Kobe didn't play. It was just reality.

KInd of like I didn't put too much into the Lakers winning in Boston b/c KG was just coming back from his injury and looked pretty rusty to me. I didn't think that was representative of a Boston team that LA would see in the Finals any more than this laker team tonight was.

but that didn't make either game less fun to watch.

The Lakers weren't "underdogs in their own building." The official line had them at -3 1/2.

Steve-

why be such a buzzkill ? Couldn't let me enjoy my little moral victory ? The Lakers were certainly underdogs in my view.

If you truly think LA without Kobe is a better team than the Cs without little Nate (no matter where they are playing), then you hold the Lakers in higher regard than I do and the Cs in lower regard than I do. If a full strength LA team was coming to Boston to play a Cs squad that didn't have Rondo would you feel like the Cs were the underdogs ? I would, no matter what they oddsmakers say.

Because the pointspread is not designed to be reflective of what the outcome of the game will be. The pointspread is designed to get as close as possible to a 50/50 distribution of bets between the two teams. The house makes their 10% on all the bets, with, ideally, the bets from the losing side paying off the winning side. That's what they're aiming for, and it has nothing to do with who's the better team. Especially in the case of the Yankees, the Cowboys and the Lakers.

Because those three teams are the most popular nationally in their respective sports, they always have a lot of fans lying action on them. In order to entice people to bet for the other team involved and offset the fan betting, the spreads for those teams are always over-weighted to draw in more people to bet for the other team. IN the Lakers case, this effect is even more pronounced b/c of LA's proximity to Vegas. There are always a lot of LA people (and Laker fans) in Vegas, as SoCal makes up by far the largest market for people who go to Vegas. So on top of their national following, there is a bit of a "home team" effect in Vegas for the Lakers which draws even more bets their way, and thus the oddsmakers ratchet up the lines even further to offset the "home team" effect.

So the Lakers weren't expected to be 3 1/2 points better than the Cs last night. It was a spread of 3 1/2 that was designed to be big enough to entice people who might not otherwise make a bet to put a bet down on the Cs and balance out all of the Laker fans putting bets on LA.

Because the worst case for the casino would be 90% of the action on the Lakers and LA covers. They would get hammered, and someone would get fired.

So before you start putting a lot of faith in pointspreads as being reflective of teams' respective strengths, I leave you with this:


Colts by 18 over Jets Jets win Super Bowl III

Rams by 14 over Pats Pats win Super Bowl XXXVI

Pats by 12 over Giants You know how that went

Colts by 5 over Saints etc, etc, etc

What would a 3 point spread translate to in decimal odds if you would be talking tonights game for the Celtics? Portland -3 that is

NYCelt wrote:sky,

It's OK to say and I'll say it for you; Kobe would likely have made the difference last night. I'd bet on it.


I don't know if I ever mentioned this to you, I may have told MustangGator, my brother is a huge Laker fan. He's got this big poster framed in his garage with all their different jerseys going back to the Minneapolis days. Last time I got near it I pretended to have some sort of an attack and one of my little nieces thought there was something wrong with me. My wife simply told her that yes, something was wrong with me.


Regards

NYC-

re: Kobe- I guess I feel like KObe's unavailability last night makes us even, as LA got the Cs when they weren't at full strength in Boston, so it's all good.

re: the poster- that sounds like a really cool poster. You and your brother remind me of one of those civil war stories, with one brother fighting on one side and the other for the opposite sides. the 80's Finals and '08 Finals must have been something for you guys.

re: your reaction to the poster- very funny

re: your wife's comment- even funnier. I literally LOL'd.

As a veteran ankle injurer i can tell you ligaments and tendons aint good. Ive broke both of mine twice and sprained them more than i can count the last one i broke i also tore the deltoid ligament and it put me in a boot for a few months.

And the real horror is they just have their own time schedule and can be awful slow to heal.

Sky you just got to be thanking the stars they finally sat him. If he is tacked up and healthy yall got a good shot at the finals.

I think Denver is very much for real. I share your belief in Kobe being quick to pass out of doubles and concede when he does this you guys are the best in the nba. Puzzles me when he tries to do it all. Puzzles me when he goes into iso mode. Game 6 of denver through the entire finals he made great decisions and you guys got out of evry tight spot you were in. Got to chap your ass when he regresses.

Best

Jeb

I am so happy he is sitting I can't even tell you.

And yes, when he goes back into 2005-06 Kobe mode it drives me nuts.

It's one thing to drop 81 on the Raptors or 63 on the Mavs in 3 quarters when your starting teammates not named Lamar are Smush Parker, Luke Walton and Kwame Brown.

Now, with Pau, Ron Ron and Fish, it's a whole different story.

Back then it was necessary- today it's unacceptable.

Hopefully he rediscovers that while he sits out. Hopefully Jerry West will talk to him again, as he did back in '01.


Got to run, buddy. Have a good night.