Celtics stat of the Day, 12/14/09

Bob Heckler was wondering about stats comparing Leon Powe with Sheldon Williams. I thought I might as well throw Glen Davis into the comparisons too. The fairest comparison seems to be data from this season for Sheldon (the small number of games notwithstanding, the mix he’s in is different from the past) and data for last season in the cases of Glen and Leon (both well-established in the Celtics rotation and, of course, having posted nothing for this season yet).

Minutes per game

Each of the the three has been used mainly as a complementary player (although both Leon and Glen put in some more prominent time last season):

Glen……..17.8
Leon…….17.5
Sheldon…13.8

Points per Minute Played

Leon was often a scoring machine while he was in there, although the other two average a point about every three minutes:

Leon…….0.438
Sheldon…0.333
Glen…….0.324

Field Goal %

Most of Leon’s shots were layups, stuffs or putbacks. The other two mix jumpers in with the short shots, and Sheldon wins handily in terms of overall accuracy:

Leon….…52.3%
Sheldon…49.2%
Glen…….44.2%

Free Throw %

No contest…Sheldon in a walk:

Sheldon…81.1%
Glen…….73.0%
Leon…….70.7%

Free Throws Attempted per Minute Played:

Leon holds a substantial lead in this category, while Sheldon takes nearly two-and-a-half as many free throws as Glen:

Leon…….0.218
Sheldon…0.175
Glen…….0.079

Free throw Points per Minute Played:

When the number of attempted free throws and the free throw percentage are both taken into account, Leon leads in terms actual number of points from free throws per minute played. Glen is a distant third:

Leon…….0.150
Sheldon…0.142
Glen…….0.079

Defensive Rebounds per Minute Played

Height counts in defensive rebounding while energy is key in offensive rebounding. Both Glen and Sheldon are listed at 6’ 9”, while Leon is listed at 6’ 8”. The difference is that I believe the figure associated with Sheldon. He beats the other two in the defensive rebounding category, being way ahead of Glen:

Sheldon…0.191
Leon…….0.163
Glen…….0.111

Offensive Rebounds per Minute Played

This is another area in which Leon’s energy made him close to a machine, and the Celtics miss his offensive rebounding output badly. Sheldon beats out Glen for second place.

Leon…….0.118
Sheldon…0.083
Glen…….0.074

Assists per Minute Played

It’s this stat that comes closest to revealing Leon as somewhat of a “black hole” down low. However, I expected Glen to be closer to Sheldon than is the case:

Sheldon…0.050
Glen…….0.042
Leon….…0.037

Turnovers per Minute Played

Glen is the best of the three in terms of taking care of the ball, while Leon is poorest:

Glen……..0.043
Sheldon….0.053
Leon……..0.062

Steals per Minute Played

Glen is most active in making steals:

Glen...…..0.032
Sheldon…0.020
Leon….…0.020

Blocked shots per Minute Played

Sheldon is the leader in terms of blocked shots, with Glen far outdistanced:

Sheldon…0.040
Leon…….0.031
Glen…….0.012

Fouls Committed per Minute Played

Sheldon is much more foul-prone than the other two players:

Glen…….0.141
Leon….…0.156
Sheldon…0.199

Summary

Offensive Production:

Strictly for gaining possession of the ball off the offensive boards and scoring points, Leon would rank #1, with Sheldon #2. At the end of games, Sheldon’s the best option for making free throws.

Offensive Enabling:

Despite Glen’s passing ability, Sheldon is the best bet for enhancing the chemistry of a team through opportunistic ball distribution, with Glen #2.

Ball Control: Glen is the best option in taking care of the ball on one end and stealing it (without fouling) on the other. Sheldon is #2 in both respects.

Rebounding: Sheldon is the best defensive rebounder, Leon the best offensive rebounder, and Glen is #3 in both categories.

Defensive Domination:

Sheldon is the best shot-blocker of the three, with Leon second.

The Bottom Line

Leon was a real offensive force with this team, both in scoring and on the boards. But he tended to excel more on the offensive end. As an all-around jack-of-all-trades and complement to other players, Sheldon could well be at least the equal of Leon and, at this point in their respective careers, is probably ahead of Glen except when it is important to control the ball and not over-foul.

Obviously, these readily available stats don't begin to tell the whole story about the players; they're just a starting point. Going beyond stats, it's difficult to say that either Glen or Sheldon knows the system better than the other, because we're talking about the bench system, and I'm not even sure there really is one at this juncture. But, what there is of a bench system incorporating Sheed is arguably more familiar to Sheldon than to Glen.

Both Sheldon and Glen have strengths they can bring to the party. I happen to believe that Glen has a broader array of talents that probably make him more versatile. That's one reason why I've promoted the idea of giving him a shot at SF while Quis is out. I'd consider a rotating trio, with Glen playing the taller, stronger opponents, Scal playing the better perimeter scorers, and Tony Allen playing the smaller, more agile guys. I believe Glen can motor down the wing much better than a lot of people believe; and, despite the assist stats, I like his passing instincts. Ultimately, I could see him as a swing man between the SF and PF positions. He's just too short to challenge centers, except in emergencies

One way or another, it seems time for Glen to find a sustained role with this team. He's never been a full-time PF or a full-time center, having played both positions upon demand. One year, he played primarily under the boards on offense; the next year, he went outside more. He was a bench player and then was forced into a starter's role. Through no fault of his own, I believe he's never found a consistent identity here. I realize that swinging from PF to SF wouldn't automatically imply consistency either; but a swing man role can be consistent if it's utilized in the same manner from game to game.

Anyway, maybe these stats will prompt some thoughts that others would like to share.

Sam

sam,

Thanks for this analysis. It's not always possible to compare 3 players, all playing the same position in the same system with largely the same teammates.

Well, I'm a bit more impressed by Shelden (he's solid in every area), miss Leon like crazy. In assists-to-turnovers, Baby has a very slight edge over Shelden (.97 vs .94) while Leon is horrible at .6.

Does the slimmed down Baby have the speed to play defense against SFs? Good question. He certainly can post them up offensively.

Offense tends to have more stats for comparison, so offensively-minded Leon would look better here.

It'll be interesting to see how Doc uses Baby and Shelden together (assuming he does).

Thanks again for the comparisons. I think it highlighted what we've gained and lost and where.

Unfortunately, since Baby is the worst of the 3 on the offensive boards, having him come back into the lineup won't fix that problem for us.

bob

Sam,

Thanks for the stats and analysis. I think it bolsters the notion that Shelden is a good fit for this team and can be a productive player. In my view, Davis would have to earn his minutes by showing he deserves them in practice, especially considering how he got injured; otherwise, Shelden keeps playing.

Bob, I'm with you on Leon. Yes, he's injured and who knows how well he'll play when he comes back, but there's so much to like about a player who expends effort like that. I'd take a guy like that in the power forward spot over a tall underachiever any day.

Outside

Sam

I know these things take a bit of time so I appriciate the effort.

Latest on Powe is at best late January/ Feb to return. I'll believe that when I see it. How can any Celt fan wish him anything but the best but with so many knee issues I certainly understand our position.

Now as for BB's return, I really think he will find minutes quicker than most might think. And if he does well in those, they'll lead to more. No reason he shouldn't be in reasonable shape and perhaps doing things a bit lefty the past few month might be a blessing.

Will probably mean less time for Williams but perhaps it the games continue to go as they have minutes for the starting bigs might be cut a bit more too.

beat

Bob,

I wouldn't advocate that Glen play the three against all comers. Against the perimeter guys, I'd give Scal some minutes; and, against more agile opponents, Tony would be my choice (at least for the moment). In other words, my feeling is that, regardless of the position he plays, Glen's bulk is his chief asset on defense, so he should be used in defensive situations where he can be close to the basket and body guys up rather than trying to outmaneuver them.

Sam

Sam wrote:Bob,

I wouldn't advocate that Glen play the three against all comers. Against the perimeter guys, I'd give Scal some minutes; and, against more agile opponents, Tony would be my choice (at least for the moment). In other words, my feeling is that, regardless of the position he plays, Glen's bulk is his chief asset on defense, so he should be used in defensive situations where he can be close to the basket and body guys up rather than trying to outmaneuver them.

Sam

Sam,

He is the literal 290 pound gorilla on the court.

Still, we need an offensive rebounder.

bob

Very interesting statistics, Sam. We thought Williams was playing well, and the statistics confirm this.

I like Big Baby for additional reasons very difficult to measure: 1) making a great pass; 2) bodying up defensively on a much taller opponent; 3) hitting a jumper (helping spread the offense); 4) team defense (quickness); and 5) setting some great picks.

I do believe Big Baby will breathe new energy into the Celtics when he gets into playing shape.

Go Celtics!!

SD, good points on Baby's attributes. I like Sheldon, but Glen brings more to the C's than Sheldon. I think one of my biggest problems with Sheldon is that he doesn't have particularly good hands. He's seems smart enough, he gets himself into good position for rebounds, both offensive and defensive, and he gets a few fingers on the ball but he can't seem to get possession. He's also pretty bad at catching passes. Rondo finds him a lot for what would be easy layups or dunks but he loses that window when he bobbles the ball. I think this is what I miss most about Powe, if he could get a finger on the ball, it was his.