Celtics Stat of the Day, 1/2/10

It appears that KG and Paul Pierce will definitely be out against the Raptors, and Rondo is at least doubtful. It's coincidental that I decided, yesterday, to make my biweekly visit to 82games.com, which shows +/- stats for the ten combinations having played the most minutes for each team. And, rather than to wade through the +/- stats themselves—then going to the trouble of dividing by minutes played in order to place all combinations on the same basis—I sometimes focus simply on the percentage of games in which each combination has outscored their opposition.

The "good news" for the moment is that the two most frequent "winning combinations" do not include Rondo, and the second one (in bold below) doesn't include Rondo, Paul or KG. So, at least for certain periods of games, "winning" can happen without those three.

Percentage of games in which each combination has outscored their opposition:

80.0% Eddie-Ray-Paul-KG-Sheed (based on 5 games together)
76.9% Eddie-Ray-Quis-Sheldon-Sheed (based on 13 games together)
75.0% Rondo-Tony-Ray-KG-Perk (based on 4 games together)
73.0& The "normal" starters: Rondo-Ray-Paul-KG-Perk (based on 26 games together)
71.4% Rondo-Quis-Paul-KG-Sheed (based on 7 games together)
66.6% Rondo-Ray-Paul-Sheed-Perk (based on 3 games together)

The four "losing" combinations have been:

38.4% Rondo-Quis-Paul-KG-Perk (based on 13 games together)
33.3% Eddie-Ray-Paul-KG-Perk (based on 6 games together)
30.7% Eddie-Quis-Paul-Sheldon-Sheed (based on 13 games together)
28.5% Rondo-Ray-Paul-KG-Sheed (based on 14 games together)

Note that a similar five, substituting Paul Pierce for Ray (underscored above), don't have nearly such good fortune. This is not an indictment of Paul Pierce. Some strengths simply mesh better than others. My guess would be that Quiz' skill in posting up and operating inside better complements Ray's, Eddie's (and sometimes Sheed's) perimeter threats, whereas Paul's presence may overbalance things toward the perimeter.

I'm not, in any way, suggesting that a five of Eddie, Ray, Quis, Sheldon and Sheed would be dominant, and I'm fully aware that Quis won't be with the team tonight. But I tend to look at combinations of strengths rather than combinations of players. And what I see in this combination are:

• A perimeter floor-spacer (Eddie)
• A perimeter floor-spacer who can also penetrate as an option (Ray)
• An inside threat and defender (Quis)
• A tough, persistent rebounder and defender (Sheldon)
• An inside-outside big man threat who is an excellent post defender

In other words, this appears to be a combination of strengths that can achieve pretty effective complementary balance and chemistry on the floor. Now, simply substitute Tony for Quis, and you have a very similar profile of strengths. In fact, it could be argued that Tony's slashing and defensive attributes are more dynamic than those of Quis, although also under less control.

Believe me, I'm not dense enough to assume that Eddie, Ray, Tony, Sheldon and Sheed will run away with tonight's game. I realize that seasonal stats are complied against all types of matchups, and the Raptors are particularly strong in some areas. I understand that one combination will not play the entire game. I know all the trite stuff. But I also like to recognize positive glimmers where they exist.

Go Celtics!

Sam