Celtics Stat of the Day, 12/18/09

There are two statistics that give some pretty good clues as to how
smoothly a team's offense is functioning versus how smoothly its
defense is functioning. Relatively speaking, the Celtics look pretty
good on each of the two.

One stat involves the spread between each team's FG percentage and their opponents' collective FG percentage. In this stat, the Celtics rank first in the league. The top five:

1. Boston..............+5.3 percentage points
2. Cleveland..........+4.5 percentage points
3. L.A. Lakers........+3.8 percentage points
4. Phoenix Suns.....+3.5 percentage points
5. Utah Jazz..........+3.2 percentage points

The other stat involves the spread between each team's assists per game
and their opponents' collective assists per game. In this stat, the
Celtics rank second in the league.

1. Utah Jazz..........+6.40 assists per game
2. Boston Celtics....+5.68 assists per game
3. Dallas Mavs.......+3.65 assists per game
4. San Ant. Spurs..+3.21 assists per game
5. Milw. Bucks.......+2.91 assists per game

These two stats go a long way toward explaining why the Celtics' spread in points per game is number 1 in the league:

1. Boston Celtics....+9.62
2. Atlanta Hawks....+8.58
3. L.A. Lakers........+8.16
4. Denver Nuggets.+7.07
5. Orlando Magic....+6.36

Of course, there are many other factors also contributing to point spread, not the least of which is rebounding, in which the Celtics currently ranked 23rd offensively (an improvment from a week ago) and 8th defensively.

(Stats are derived from figures provided by NBA.com for games through 12/17.)

Comments?

Sam

Not to keep throwing stats at it until it becomes mush, but two other factors that I think affect these stats are strength of schedule and number of games played at home vs. away. Your performance in the spread stats will obviously be different if you play the Nets, Knicks, and Wolves vs. playing Orlando, Denver, and Atlanta. The same holds true for playing more games at home vs. playing more away.

I hate Hollinger's ranking scheme, but I didn't find another list that conveniently lists both strength of schedule and home/away games. You can also sort it by strength of schedule.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings/_/sort/sos

That sorting shows that a team like the Rockets have done remarkably well considering their strength of schedule (5th highest) and that they've played only 10 of 25 at home. At the opposite end, Denver has the lowest SOS and have split their games home and away, so their showing in the spread stats may be somewhat inflated.

Food for thought. And Sam, thanks for putting together the "stat of the day." I think this is a more effective way to discuss stats with the group than the running stats you were keeping. Hopefully this is easier and enjoyable for you.

Outside

I'll say one thing for Hollinger, he provides his formula. That way if you don't agree with one of his values (e.g. giving the home team a 3.5 point edge) you can change it and see what happens. Obviously, you have to do that on your own spreadsheet and input the data yourself, but you can tweak it.

He ranks the Celts #1 in power rankings. He also projects us to end up with a 62-20 record (he gives the Lakers 58-24), have the best odds of making the finals (even better than LA) and the best odds of winning the championship.

How can he say we have a better chance of making it to the finals than LA when the competition at the top in the west is not as good as the competition at the top in the east?

bob

bobheckler wrote:How can he say we have a better chance of making it to the finals than LA when the competition at the top in the west is not as good as the competition at the top in the east?

Bob,

That's a subjective factor that a thinking person could plug in to their own ranking. His output is based solely on establishing his formulas and inputting the data.

I'm sorry I even mentioned the guy. Now we're talking about his dumb rankings instead of Sam's stats, which are far more interesting. Shoot me if I say the "H" name again.

Outside

I must point out that we will not really know how far the Celtics have come back against the Magic or the Hawks, until they meet again. X-mas should be informative. From my perspective, it the C's either win, or lose in a close battle....of course, I'm getting a little ahead of myself. They still need to take care of the next 3 at home.