Rockets Increase Omer Asik Talks, Hope For Trade By Dec. 19

Dboss,

I believe you've posted in the past that Asik is not a good defender.  Each time, I disagreed but did not bother to post because you probably watch a lot more of other teams' games than I do.  (That wouldn't be difficult, because I watch almost none.) This time you added that he doesn't block shots.

So this time, I did a small (very small) amount of research.  Basketball reference shows his blocks per 36 minutes at 1.7, compared with 1.9 for Gortat (just picked him because we had hoped to get him last season) and 2.2 for Dwight Howard.  In my book, this puts Asik in that kind of company, especially if he keeps in tune by playing big minutes regularly.

As for his overall defense, I googled "Asik scouting defense," and the first two entries had the following comments:

"Nine months later, Asik has blossomed into one of the top defensive big men in the league, anchoring a defense that struggles on the perimeter."

"The Houston Rockets landed one of the best defensive centers in the NBA two summers ago when they signed Omer Asik away from the Chicago Bulls."

I would have gone further if I hadn't had to go out soon, and I didn't even bother to note the names of those two writers.  But I wasn't selective; I just picked the first two.  If anyone wishes to know more about these articles or what other articles say, it's easy enough to google "Asik scouting defense."

I'm not trying to be argumentative here, and the main reasons I want Asik are for his rebounding and defense; so, if there really is evidence that he sucks at defense, I'd be a fool not to think twice.  But, otherwise, I think we could debate for ages the fine points of Asik's defense, his appropriateness for the Celtics, his personality, his sign of the Zodiac or anything else.  And we could have the same debate about the next really good center who is available in trade—maybe some time around 2018.  And we could depend on mid-first round draft picks to bring a legend to Boston.  And we could salivate at each available big-time center the Celtics can't bid on because of the cap or because Boston does have snow (it has some at the moment as a matter of fact) or because the really good ones only want to go to championship contender teams and the Celtics most likely won't be a championship contender until they get a top-flight center.  (If the latter is not a Catch-22, I don't know what is.)

I'd prefer Danny to take a risk NOW in trading players who may or may not be building blocks (probably not) and even a few draft picks which will probably be in the so-so range for a guy who appears to have plenty of demonstrated competence as well as plenty of additional upside once he's sprung loose as "the man" at center.

From the news I'm hearing, this whole discussion is probably moot because some other team will probably grab Asik.  But otherwise, the Celts aren't exactly operating from a position of strength and great leverage in worrying about the fine points if a stud is available now.

In the meantime, I go online every morning dreading the news that he's gone elsewhere and we're once again hoping for a miracle in the near-future.

Sam

Sam

Sam I actually did not mean to indicate that Asik never blocks shots.  What I meant is that he is not considered to be a good shot blocker or intimidator.  I do not rely much on per 36 minutes stats or per 40 minutes stats as any logical way to determine what a player will produce if they in fact played those many minutes.

There is no way to determine at what point (in minutes played) that a players productivity will decline, stay the same or even increase.  

We have a very small and rather insignificant sample size for looking at Asik's shot blocking numbers.  Last year he played 30 MPG and averaged 1.06 BPG.  The two prior years he did not play a lot of minutes in Chicago.

His career average is 0.9 BPG.  I think he is a very average shot blocker.  It is one of those unchecked boxes when looking for a center that is a good defender.  Our own Victor is about as good at blocking shots as Asik.

He is definitely a top 20 center but he is not a top 10 guy.  

Sam we have tons of scorers at every position except center.  We need a big that can rebound the ball and play defense.  

I would like to see us get him however I do not see his value being as high as some people.  What is a top 20 center worth these days that has very limited offense?

We do not know what the future picks will bring but I have a gut feeling that the future Nets picks could yield big dividends.  Their window is not wide open and they could easily become a sub .500 team for an extended period of time.

I think Danny is not looking for a few tweaks at this point.  He has a solid core of players plus fringe core players and drafts picks to make a big splash.  

All things considered the Celtics are perfectly positioned to get back into contentions real soon.

There is no way Danny can muck this up as long as he is patient to really get the pieces that we need.

dboss

Dboss,

I think it would be useful to clarify the per-36-minute thing.  It has come up before.

Some people seem to think that, because the per-36minute stat involves dividing a player's year-to-date total in a given statistical category (e.g. assists) by 36 that the validity of the stat is predicated on the player's averaging 36 playing minutes per game.  Wrong!

The divisor of 36 was selected arbitrarily.  It could have been per 24 minutes or per 12 minutes or even per one minute.  The only reason for dividing every player's total year-to-date stat by the same standardized number of minutes is to present an even playing ground on player comparisons rather than simply showing the stat on a per game basis (which is weighted by the number of minutes a player happens to play).  If one is confused by the concept of dividing a player's total stat by 36, my suggestion is to divide all players' per-36-minute stats by 36 and think of it as a per-one-minute stat.  There are few players who play at all without averaging at least one minute per game.

What's not so accurate in comparing players is using per game stats because those stats are influenced by the number of minutes a player has played.  For example, is Asik rebounding as well this season as last season?

• If you look at his rebounds per game, the figures are 11.7 for last season and only 6.8 this season.

• But he's only playing 18.3 MPG this season versus 30.0 MPG last season.

• If you divide his total rebounds for each season by the number of total minutes he has played each season, you get .039 rebounds per minute for last season and .037 this season—pretty much the same, and probably better this season since he has had to "share" rebounds with Howard during whatever time they have been on the court together.

• Multiply those per-minute figures by 36, and voila—you get the same relative difference between the two seasons: 14.0 last season and 13.3 this season.

• That's how the per-36 stats should be used—only on a relative basis—comparing players or comparing different periods of time for the same player—not based on some imagined implication of durability.

If you don't consider the Howard/Gortat area rarified in terms of blocks, that's your prerogative, but I respectfully disagree.  Asik's certainly in that conversation.

Yes it's nice to be patient.  But we've been patient for four years in searching for a center to replace Perk.  We've been fortunate to have KG to man the position as a transplanted PF (who didn't like being a center), but I happen to believe the Celts would have fared much better with KG at PF and someone the caliber of Asik at center.

You may consider Asik's playing time to be a "small sample" and "insignificant."  But he has played 4,735 minutes in the bigs.  You know those tolerance ranges they show when they publish the results of a poll?  Usually around +/- 3 or 4 percentage points—pretty standard in the research industry.  Well the +/- tolerance on a base of 4,735 minutes ls just about 1 percentage point. In 44 years, I've never seen a tolerance that narrow on any survey I've conducted.

You're absolutely right about the fact that the Celtics have scoring at every position except center.  That's why I agree with you in wanting a center; and you, yourself, just said (in another thread) that teams aren't giving away centers.  I don't believe Asik would be a "tweak."  He could potentially represent a key building block for the future.  And I believe that, considering the number of teams now vying for a veritable bench-warmer, the least he could represent for the Celtics—if he somehow didn't work out here— would be viable trade bait.

I noticed that you didn't comment on the citations of Asik's excellent defense that I posted.  Do you have anything that contradicts what they have to say?  I'd guarantee to keep an open mind about it.

In the meantime, Happy Holidays to you and your family.  Have a peach for me.

Sam

Sam

Before I posted yesterday I actually found the article about Asik's Excellent defense along with other articles that indicate the Rockets were not as good of a defensive team last year with him.  There are of course numerous variables that may have nothing to do with his play.  Perhaps one day he will make the NBA all defensive team or the second team or at the very least garner an honorable mention vote.  He is a top 5 rebounder in this league and that has value.

I said that the sample size was small because he had one year under his belt where his production while playing extended minutes was very good.  

But I would not consider him to be an excellent defensive player.  He is a solid rebounder and that is the one main skill he brings to the table.  He is not a good shot blocker.  I only talked about his shot blocking and you only talked about his rebounding.

We can at least agree that he could help this team.  We do not agree on what his value is in terms of compensation. (What we have to give up, what the cost of doing a longer term deal would be or the impact of cap space down the road).

Happy Holidays to you and your family as well.

dboss

The primary problem with Asik is his FT shooting ability. For his career, he is a 53.4% FT shooter. That's wading into Dwight Howard territory.

Late in games, he will most certainly become a liability. Do the Celtics really need a "Hack-an-Asik" scenario to deal with at the end of every game? Will they be forced to alter their lineup in crunch time to keep him off the line at the expense of interior defense?

If Ainge is wise, he'll get a guy that can defend, rebound, and knock down FTs when necessary.



KJ

Not a lot of centers shoot that well from the line.

Just give me a center that can protect the paint and rebound the ball to trigger the fast break.

We will probably end up with another project if we draft a centet.

Dboss

Cavs aren't in the running for Asik.


Report: Cavs have no interest in trading for Omer Asik

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/12/14/report-cavs-have-no-interest-in-trading-for-omer-asik/?ocid=Yahoo&partner=ya5nbcs

One less suitor for the "prince"...


KJ

KJ, that's a surprise....a pleasant one. This is where I agree with dboss. Many great centers have been winners without being good free throw shooters Russell, Wilt and Shaq to name three. Everyone wants the perfect player—topnotch intimidator at the rim, super rebounder, good scorer, very good free throw shooter, runs the floor, anchors the defense, ignites the offense, no blemishes on his record or his skin, good to his mother on holidays, whatever. Red had the right idea. Get a guy for what he does best and work around the rest.

Dboss, I used rebounds to make a point about fallacies concerning the per 36 minute stat. I actually had plenty to say about Asik's blocking ability.

Sam

The latest rumor-du-jour is that the GM of the Rockets set his December 19th deadline because he already had an acceptable offer on the table he'd accept, but wanted to see if a better one comes along and announced the date to give other GMs a chance to put something together.

The Houston Chronicle is reporting that it could be a 3-team deal, with "lots of moving parts".

Not one word, not one single word, has come out of Danny or the Celtics front office. That's what usually seems to happen just before Danny has pulled the trigger on something. He goes "completely dark".


bob


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Stretching-the-truth post game note for tonight's Rockets game:

"Rockets big man Omer Asik, who has been the subject of trade rumors, missed his sixth straight game with what the team has called a bruised right thigh."

Hard to bruise your thigh when you never play.

Hmm... this looks interesting.


Omer Asik trade rumor: 3-team deal could already be in place, according to report

By Drew Garrison  @DrewGarrisonSBN on Dec 15 2013, 3:05p


The Houston Rockets are expected to trade Omer Asik soon and general manager Daryl Morey may already have a deal in place for the big man. The Rockets are working around a self-imposed deadline of Dec. 19 to trade Asik because the team already has a trade they are willing to take, according to Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle:

Morey would not discuss his plans, but a person with knowledge of the Rockets' thinking said Morey set his Dec. 19 deadline in part because he knows he has an offer he is willing to take. Though things can change several times by Thursday, that individual said "it very likely will be a pretty complicated, three-way deal. There are a lot of moving parts."

This follows up a report that revealed rival executives believe Morey has a deal in place with former Rockets front office executive and current Philadelphia 76ers general manager Sam Hinkie centered around Asik and Thaddeus Young, though Houston is waiting to see if a more appealing deal presents itself.

The Rockets options have opened up with the emergence of starting power forward Terrence Jones, who has replaced Asik in the starting lineup after Houston decided against playing Dwight Howard and Asik together eight games into the season. Jones is averaging 10 points and 6.7 rebounds per game while shooting 36 percent from beyond the arc. Houston could be in the market for a defensive specialist who can shoot from long-range at small forward, a backup big man who can play both frontcourt positions, or expiring deals with first-round draft picks as the incentive, according to Feigen.

Houston has gone 16-8 in its first season since acquiring Howard, good for the fifth-best record in the Western Conference. Asik has already changed agents and requested a trade multiple times since the team signed Howard this summer. Asik is averaging just 18.3 minutes per game off the bench after putting up career-highs in scoring, rebounding, blocks, steals and assists in his first year with the Rockets.

Asik has not played for Houston since Dec. 2 after suffering a bruised right thigh.

----




KJ

Omer Asik talks progressing
December, 15, 2013
DEC 15  9:01 PM CT
By Marc Stein | ESPN.com



Latest rumbles from the Omer Asik trade sweepstakes:

There is no hard proof yet to support the theory -- first presented in this tweet from my USA Today colleague Sam Amick -- that the Houston Rockets already have a trade framework in place to solve their Asik conundrum and are only waiting to see if someone else out there steps up to beat the mystery offer between now and Houston’s self-imposed Thursday deadline to deal Asik.

However ...

While strong rumbles persist that the Philadelphia 76ers are the team most likely to go along with such an arrangement, given the close ties between Rockets general manager Daryl Morey and Philly counterpart Sam Hinkie, there's fresh talk in circulation about another potential co-conspirator.

The Boston Celtics.

The advice offered to us on Sunday was stern: Keep an eye on Boston. The Celtics possess two players in different salary ranges that would presumably fit in useful ways next to Dwight Howard: Jeff Green and Brandon Bass. The Celts also have a spare first-round draft pick or two to plug into any trade equation to sweeten the deal for Houston, amid rising suspicions around the league that Morey’s Rockets are going to find a way to come out of the Asik saga with at least one future first.

The same Rockets who happen to have a GM (Morey) and coach (Kevin McHale) who have long-standing relationships with Celts president Danny Ainge.

So, yes, I’d say you should keep an eye on Boston.

Question here that must be asked loudly: Can Houston, in whichever Asik trade it ultimately chooses, really afford to take back a player possessing substantial long-term money like Green (two seasons at $18.4 million after this one) or Philly's Thaddeus Young (two seasons at $19.4 million after this one) when it knows it's going to have to give an extension bump to Chandler Parsons as soon as Parsons is eligible for the raise his play merits via extension?

Which is another way of saying you shouldn't be surprised if Young gets routed to a third team should the Rockets and Sixers officially join forces to construct an Asik deal, as some observers have been expecting all month.

The latest signals out of Cleveland indicate that the Cavaliers like the thought of keeping Anderson Varejao better than the prospect of trading him for Asik.

The Cavs haven't ruled themselves out of participating in the forthcoming Asik trade, sources say, but word is they'd prefer to join in as a third-team facilitator that helps Asik land in a different city.

ESPN.com reported Friday that the Rockets, for the record, would not be willing to do an Asik-for-Varejao trade straight up regardless.

As stated Friday morning in our most recent Asik post, trying to gauge Atlanta's true willingness to part with the floor-stretching Paul Millsap -- whom Houston naturally covets in this situation -- is a major challenge thanks to ever-coy Hawks GM Danny Ferry.

Yet more than one longtime Ferry-watcher is convinced that what he's trying do in Atlanta is amass a collection of Millsaps (translation: coveted trade pieces) so he has enough of them to jump right into the heart of the bidding when the next NBA superstar becomes available via trade like we saw in February 2011, when Carmelo Anthony and Deron Williams were traded on back-to-back days before the deadline.

The Ferry-led Hawks are way too coy to be completely ruled out of contention for Asik. But it appears, heading into the final few days of the Asik sweepstakes, that Atlanta prefers to wait for a bigger prize ... even though acquiring an elite rim protector like Asik would allow Al Horford to move to his preferred position of power forward.

It was Dec. 6 when ESPN.com reported that the Rockets began telling teams that they were determined to trade Asik between Dec. 15 and Dec. 19, which would ensure that any player involved in the transaction could be re-packaged by his new team in a subsequent trade before the league's Feb. 20 trade deadline passes.

Some 10 days into this exercise, numerous teams involved and on the periphery of the talks have indicated that they indeed expect the Rockets to take this all the way to Thursday to give themselves as much time as possible to find the best deal.

Jonathan Feigen, longtime Rockets beat writer from the Houston Chronicle, quoted a "person with knowledge of the Rockets' thinking" earlier Sunday saying that the Dec. 19 deadline was set in part because Morey indeed already has an offer he knows he's willing to take. The source told Feigen: "It very likely will be a pretty complicated, three-way deal. There are a lot of moving parts."

Feigen also reported Sunday that Sixers center Spencer Hawes, with a far friendlier contract than Young's to use in a future move, as well as the ability to back up Howard at center if Houston keeps him, could well appeal to the Rockets more than Young does.




bob



.

It would suck to lose Bass and Green...



KJ