Celtics Stat of the Day, 12/24/09

Today's stat of the day is a stat that isn't there. I went to 82games.com to search for the best-performing combination of the Celtics without either Paul Pierce of Marquis Daniels in the lineup. There wasn't one combination that had played as many as 16 minutes together without both Pierce and Daniels (although 82games lags a little behind and shows stats through only 24 games). So, wherever Doc turns for alternatives, some relatively uncharted waters lie immediately ahead. What specific implications of his absence should we look for?

• The most obvious would be increased minutes for Tony Allen. And fortunately Tony's been playing under better control (no turnvers in the most recent three games). But he's usually been playing with the bench in concert with either Paul or Ray as a stabilizing factor. If Tony continues playing with the bench, look for Ray to spend a larger
proportion of his increased minutes with the bench so as not to force Tony into the foreign role of stabilizer.

• If Tony remains a bench player, Scal will probably get an opportunity to succeed at as a fill-in at a third frontcourt position with the starters, having done great jobs replacing Perk and KG in the past. However, I believe Tony
would benefit more from playing within the stability "womb" of the starting unit, while the bench would benefit more from the stability provided by Scal.

• Moreover, there's a serious question as to how many minutes Tony can play while continuing to heal. This very likely means an opening for either Giddens or Walker. In a vacuum, I'd favor Giddens over Walker for two reasons. J.R. can fill a specific and very needed role (defensive intensity). However, the Celts will be at a height disadvantage against agile small forwards, and Walker may get some minutes at the position. It wouldn't be the first time a young Celtic
has been pressed into action sooner than Doc's normal disposition.

• I find myself using the word "stability" a lot in thinking about the voids left by Paul's absence. Paul and Ray have often been used by Doc to stabilize the bench—Ray more so than Paul. And the +/- of Ray with the bench has been much better than that of Paul with the bench. I believe this is because Ray presents a better and more agile blend with guys like Wallace, Scal and Williams than Paul does. Now I expect Ray to get even more consistent bench minutes, meaning someone will have to fill in some of those minutes with the starters. Because the starters have relied so much on Ray to balance the floor, I won't be surprised to see Eddie get some shooting guard minutes with the first team.

• It may sound strange to say this about Paul Pierce; but they could miss him more on defense than on offense. While the other starters have had some experience in responding to his fluctuating scoring contributions, his defense has seldom wavered, and he has made some great defensive plays for this team plus being their third-leading rebounder per game. Fortunately the Celtics have three players who can all contribute to defensive intensity: Tony,
Scal and Giddens. How they do this (and at which position) will be a matter of interest.

• Another of Pierce's roles that has gone somewhat beneath the radar has been to control the ball from time to time. Specifically, his role in his bench stints has often been as playmaker. This is not resulted in a positive +/- statistic, so we may see more Rondo minutes with the bench. But Paul has also tended to take over the ball, even bringing it upcourt, toward the end of games when the "Hack-a-Rondo" tactic may come into play. I suspect we'll see more of Ray in this role.

• I've been lobbying for Glen Davis to get a shot at playing SF. IF he does return just after the New Year (as has been rumored), perhaps this will be his opportunity. When everyone's back, it wouldn't hurt to have Glen be a swing man between PF and (against bigger small forwards) the SF position...along with Daniels and Tony to swing between the SF and SG positions depending on matchups.

• If one were looking for possible silver linings (and it behooves us to do so), there's an excellent possibility that Pierce's unavailability will ultimately lead to a deeper and more versatile Celtics rotation AND better definition as to who are the "keepers."

I expect there are more implications that I've missed, as well as some disagreements with the ones I've listed. I'm anxious to read people's opinions.

Sam

Sam

Whats to add?

What will Doc and DA decide to cook in the kitchen tomorrow for Christmas Dinner when you discover that your out of something, the stores are closed, and you will have to make do with other ingredients?

Think you covered the possibilities.

I think we see Rondo doing a whole lot more ( more than he does already)

We can certainly present mismatch issues for Orlando as much or more than they could present to us. Going big may work for short periods. Going small perhaps.

Perk can play as even as anyone against Howard and might be able to get in his head a bit too. One thing for sure we don't need is anyone getting T'd up or committing stupid fouls.

PP plays 33-34 MPG so we need to cover that with TA, Walker Giddings and perhaps a couple more than normal minutes for KG and RA. Rondo will go 40 + IMHO.

Once things settle out and we see what works the minutes should stableize a bit for a replacement rotation. Doc has had no time to prepare for this so it will be interesting. KG is apparently stomping at the bit for being held out so expect a bit more intensitly from him (if he doesn't explode on the flight)

beat

Sam,
I'd like to expand on one of your points: defencive role of PP. IMHO, they don't have adequate sub for him on the defencive end. The only thing Doc can do is to "throw sand" into the eyes of the opponents and use Tony, Ray, Rasheed and see if the trick goes through. Thank goodness, he has to do it only for a couple of weeks(I hope the reports about PP's knee are true).
Thank you very much,
AK