What Are Celtics Going To Do At Season's End?

I know I have brought this up before, and it met with a cool response. Why must we answer that question now? Well, we don't. However it is interesting to play General Manager, and you know Ainge is considering this each day. Older posters recall how quickly the Bird era went from championship contender to Wick / Rowe. We remember what happened to the Bulls. Now we are witnessing the deterioration of (gasp) of the Spurs.

5 of the top 7 Celtic players are 31 years of age and older. Folks, that is scary. I previously posted that the Celtics must get younger, starting no later than this off season. It is a "must" situation only if we want to maintain a championship ballclub. If we wish only to win a championship in the next 2 years and let the chips fall where they may thereafter, then we keep the Big 3 intact for the next 2 - 3 years (realizing of course that injuries probably will interfere with those goals).

What will we do? I have suggested using Tony Allen, Scalabrini, House, Giddens, and Ray Allen to pick up
a quality, youthful frontline player and shooting guard this off season. I love Ray Allen. He is a great player. He is an even greater person. I was all for his trade to the Celtics. He has enabled this franchise to be relavent again, and even win a championship. However, to be relavent in the future and not fall out of contention, what else can we do? I would bet San Antonio wishes they had looked further into the future. They probably are no better than 10th best team in NBA when healthy. And they are falling fast. Injuries are speeding up their deterioration already.

I would like suggestions. I am willing to accept less Celtic success. After all, we went through many tough years together. We could keep our team together and continue to enjoy the players we have grown to know and love. I feel it would be a bitter pill for many of you to swallow when playoffs become a memory.

Go Celtics!

sdcelt

cool out. enjoy now. its the only thing that exist. a real championship team is oh so rare. we got a great chance at it. savor it.

SD,

If you had asked this question (which others did) 20 games ago, the perspective would have been different from what it is now. KG was a huge question mark. People (myself included) were pretty down on Tony. The jury was out as to the timing of a Glen Davis return. Ray hadn't yet solidified his inside-outside versatility. Williams was exhibiting intriguing potential, but not yet consistently. KG was a massive question mark. Sheed's early tendency was to be a bomber more than an inside player. Danlels was in good shape and contributing. The conventional wisdom was that the team could be better at home than on the road. The bench was playing better than the starters, whose offense looked "iffy" more often than not. Etc., etc., etc.

Think of all that has happened since...a lot more good than not-so-good, but definitely some of each. And we're only a third of the way through the season. This team is still a major work in progress. And there's absolutely no way to predict, with any assurance, what its relative strengths and weaknesses will be come the trade deadline, let alone the end of the season.

Take Tony and Marquis as an example. Twenty games ago, which of the two would you have bet would be making a bigger contribution right now? Which of the two would you have bet would have been a growing concern in terms of possible chronic injuries? Perhaps there has been no really definitive change in the potential year-end contributions of the two in the past 20 games; but I think we'd all have to admit that legitimate questions have been raised.

Every single player, as well as every possible combination of players, carries an implicit sense of the unknown at this juncture. Perspectives that seem to be coming into focus can be altered shockingly quickly.

What we DO know is that, regardless of the pitfalls it has faced, this team (and we shouldn't overlook the coaching staff) has consistently demonstrated a knack of responding with resiliency; regrouping and adjusting when necessary; and utilizing its versatility to confront potentially cataclysmic situations and actually emerge improved. That, above all, seems to be this team's character.

And, another thing that seems obvious is that experience can be much more of a positive than age can be a negative. It amazes me how much conjecture about the Celtics, from day one, has revolved about how age could drag them down rather than on how experience could buoy them—especially when adversity arises.

By way of comparison, there's a team on the other coast that has had the vast majority of its core together for most of the season, has played the vast majority of its games at home (thereby minimizing travel fatigue and enjoying optimal practice conditions), and has basically had far more opportunity than the Celtics to gel at a high level of consistent excellence. But, while they're obvious contenders, I just don't think they look all that "complete."

So, frankly, I'm just enjoying the ride, focusing on the here-and-now; being happy to be fan of the Celtics rather than of any other team; and assuming that Danny will address the future when the time is right—and quite possibly with a somewhat different hierarchy of even better-developed "chips" than he has right now.

I understand there's a natural curiosity about the future, and I'd be the last to try to discourage curiosity. But I think it's important to note that, when the future arrives, the circumstances could be a lot different from what they are now. And one tiny consideration deserves the major spotlight...ring #18.

Sam

I am confident that with our ownership and management we should be able to stay competitive for some time. Basketball is back in Boston and league players are already saying they want to be there. In the meantime, let's get #18!!!

Hoop

sd nobody can have it all,it would be a shame to break up this team now,look at our record,KG and Pierce may not be what they were two years ago,but they can still play at a high level,high enough that with all this depth we can actually be better than 08.Sheed,SW and Baby all make KG not have to carry this team,Sheed is 35 and with a young still emerging stud like Perk,why would you think of breaking that up?TA as Sam pointed out,has suddenly emerged,when Quis comes back,we're gonna have so much depth.I still want to see if Walker and Hudson can be developed.Danny has done a great great job,we'll be in hunt for next 3 years!!!

Let's let Danny do the worrying about this. No matter what anyone says, we probably will all be shocked in the summer by some of his moves. You all know that I am all for signing Ray to another contract. This, I believe, is not only up to Danny, but Ray and if he is willing to take a dramatic pay cut. At 35, I believe he will, because he has stated repeatedly that he wants to retire here. No matter what trades, moves, cuts you come up with, it probably will not be what he might have in store for this team. Why would they have signed a 35 year old Wallace to a 2 year plus one year player option if he were going to break up this team???? I say, leave it alone, enjoy the season as it is becoming evident that it will be a long one,
and let the management up to the big wigs. (PS don't downplay the thoughts and ideas of Wyc Grousbeck, he is a hands on owner who makes decisions sometimes that Ainge might not)

I created this post to encourage input. I definately will enjoy the season, but thought this post was developed to question, to communicate ideas, suggestions, and insights. The topics that I create are to encourage communication, not necessarily to promote my agenda.

Of course we will "cool" it, and decisions will be made by powers to be when the time comes. Just thought it would be entertaining and interesting to get posters' thoughts and feelings about those future decisions.

First thing to do is sign Ray to a 3 year extension and be prepared to do the same for PP, Then it will be KG's turn. The youth movement is currrently centered in the hands of Rondo and Perk. No other players are currently relevant to long term plans. All are good role players but Perk and Rajon are star quality and the key to the transition that will take place in 3-5 years when the current big three start to lose a little something. Baby could be the only exception to this But IMO he leads the role players, several of whom will secure more veteran leadership for the future. Our critical time will come in about five years. Until then we will continue to compete for and win more NBA championships.

sdcelt

no harm meant just trying to advise a fellow worrier.

As far as the Celtic's are positioned at center and power forward, they are set for the next couple of years with Wallace, KG and Perk. Do not touch! Depending on Williams development under coach Cliff direction he is a keeper and would fit in with the Celtic's salary situation. He comes cheap! Big Baby is perfect in his role as Power forward with a soft touch from 15 ft.and is not expensive. It will all depend on his performance down the stretch. He could be used as trade bait for a young raw talent, but don't look for him to move unless there is the perfect trade out there in the Celtic's favor.

Scal is a very valuable tool and if signed at the NBA players minimum could be a very valuable for say 2 years. He can hit the 3 pter and is very savvy veteran who knows the little things on defense to get the job done.

TA has played his way back into the lineup and if he continues his progress will have the highest value. If signed at a low salary, he could be packaged with a trade with Big Baby or another before next season.

House's days with the Celtic's will be over with come June. He has declined in his 3 pt shooting and that is the only thing that kept him on the club. Look to have Ray Allen signed to a 3 year deal and to used coming off the bench to fill House's role as 3 pt sniper. He can also be used in other critical situations without sacrificing size (6'5"), defense and shooting. It will come to what Ray's desires are and how long does he want the NBA life.

Gidden's is the mystery in the equation. We do not know his true value and his contract is up. If signed to a minimum salary could be used more next year to gain more value for a possible trade. Hudson is good and should be developed as a back-up to Rondo. He would not cost a lot, but his age is a factor. He is not 22, he is going on 25.

To do anything significant via a trade or free agency will require Pierce to restructure his contract so as to give more room for the Celtic's to operate a move in 2010-2011 season.

112288

SD,

As I said, there's certainly nothing wrong with conjecturing about the future, which is very important to a franchise that maintains great pride in its world championship superiority. The only problem is that there are so many variables that won't necessarily be crystallized until the end of the season or, more likely, the playoffs.

For example, I see posts about trading some combination including Tony and/or Scal—possibly for a backup PG. But here we are with both legitimate SFs out of action, and I for one am darned glad to have those two available. If they are to remain available, even if mainly for emergencies, in the championship pursuit, aren't they free agents when the playoffs end? So do the Celtics take advantage of their contracts in trades or take advantage of their emergency capabilities in the championship quest?

Who knows?

Sam

I don't know for sure, Sam. But a few things that I feel I have a good handle on:

1) Williams and Big Baby are twins with very little length; we don't need both;

2) Tony Allen has a curious ability to keep both the Celtics and the opposition in the same game (unless he miraculously continues to play as he has the past 3 games);

3) We desparately need a quality backup point guard;

4) We lack the athleticism of the elite teams;

5) 5 of our top 7 players are 31+ years old.

For the reasons above. I am concerned about the franchise future. I certainly understand things will change between now and the end of year, but of those items listed above, how many of those will change?

Go Celtics!!

A trade and a restructure of Pierces contract can open up the salary cap issue in big ways. If not what you see is what you will have. Williams is cheap so I expect him to stay. Look for Baby to move if packaged with a few others but only if the Celtics get a young up and comer perhaps a year away from shining. But it will be on Celtic terms, not the other team.

112288

I don't think we need to approach this as if the band of Pierce, KG and Ray are about to go out to pasture. As a mater of fact I'd argue that Pierce's game is as effective and well rounded as ever and he's gotten wiser. It's possible all three still have 2-3 years in them at a fairly high level. Professional athletics, like so many other areas of life, is a part of the population seeing it's participants play effectively to an older age. 30 isn't equivalent to dead.

Remember too those three contracts are staggered to expire at different times and allow for quite a bit of flexibility.

Rondo and Perkins, the other starters, are very young and at or near all-star caliber themselves.

Our second line players including Daniels, Davis, Williams and even Tony Allen (couldn't name Tony to this list two weeks ago) have much mileage left on them and are youthful enough to give us depth for some time, or have value to other teams so they add potential in two directions.

Also to SD, not to pick so please don't take me wrong; you mention that we lack the athleticism of the elite teams. I would respond yet we are an elite team.

Finally this years summer of the big free agent, combined with a lowering salary cap will send players in motion everywhere and for longer than just this summer. A perfect situation for a GM with some flexibility ahead and a team with a restored winning tradition.

I wouldn't worry that much about our aging ourselves out of being competitive.

I do wonder why I came into this room, though. Was it to get my reading glasses? I think I was going to the kitchen for a snack. Anyway, like I said, aging doesn't have the same early onset effects it used to.

Regards

SD,

1. I don't believe Williams and Glen are twins. Williams' strength is banging, and he has trouble handling the ball. Glen's strength is a combination of bulk and agility (like Barkley), and he's a good ball-handler. But, even if they WERE twins, they would not represent redundancy if they didn't play the same role. Some of us have been advocating that Glen be given a shot at some time at the "3," which could make him a a valuable frontcourt swingman and Williams a
rebounding specialist. Any similarities in possible roles with the Celtics (which have not been proven at all because they haven't played more than 4 minutes on the same team)could easily change.

2. Tony's the kind of player whom I judge not so much on the past as the present. Because players don't miraculously morph into starts with five minutes her and two minutes there. Given consistent playing time recently, he's performing pretty well. Given consistent playing time a couple of years ago, he performed pretty well. He has one turnover in
four games. So being a trick-or-treater is another thing that could change.

3. The team is 23-5 and appears is arguably becoming a frontrunner in the championship seeds without a quality backup point guard. The bench fluctuates between point-by-committee (often with Pierce running the team) and extra minutes for Rondo. You and both come from eras when PGs such as Cousy would routinely play 37-42 minutes a game well into their late 20s in a much faster game. IF Rondo were unavailalbe (I refuse to use the "i" word) for a protracted period, relief wouldn't come from a topnotch PG who had been willing to sit on the bench all the time; it would come from a change in the system, which is pretty much how it's being handled now. Besides, we're talking about the
future here, not what we may desperately need now.

4. The Celtics do lack the athleticism of some of the elite teams, but they've beaten two of the supposedly elite teams already. Athleticism isn't a panacea. The advantages accruing to athleticism (such as transition points and offensive rebounding advantages) can be combatted by a variety of tactical measures that an experienced team can easily
implement. Moreover, who can predict the future of athleticism of guys like Tony, Daniels, Giddens, Walker, Hudson, Rondo, Davis, and whoever Danny might get through draft, trade or free agency? The Celtics are
recently getting 6% more shot opportunities than earlier in the season, and enhanced athleticism in the rotation is contributing to that fact. This is a factor that can change rather suddenly depending on player
development and other factors.

5. I think too much emphasis is placed on age. Someone please tell me the point at which age becomes more of a liability than experience is an asset. Moreover, if 5 of our top 7 players are 31+, 9 of our other 10 players (and the remainder of our top 10) are UNDER age 30.

Hey, I know a team that won a championship and then lost the next year (just like the Celtics have done the past two years). The following year, they were old. Their starters were 34, 33, 31, 28, and 27 and averaged age 30.6, and the entire roster averaged age 28.6. (By comparision, this year's Celtics starters average a younger age 29.4
and the entire roster averages a younger age 28.1.) The comparative team I'm talking about won the next two NBA championships. Good thing for them that they didn't panic about their age.

Moreover, simply looking at the ages on the roster is not the entire age-related story. The impact of age is weighted by the number of minutes allocated to the older guys versus the younger guys. The deeper this team become, the more likely the younger guys are to take older guys' minutes, which would make the effective age profile of the team (in terms of playing time) become YOUNGER. So this is another factor that could change by the end of the season.

Finally, as gyso has ably pointed out so many times, the vast majority of wishes (other than retaining our own players) that we could come up with would likely be unfeasible due to the Collective Bargaining
Agreement.

Again, I emphasize that I inherently have nothing against conjecturing about the future, and the future is obviously important to this team. And the farther we get into this season, the more crystallized both the needs and existing resources of this team will become—and the greater clarity we'll have in such discussions. This is an interesting starting point. I just feel it's important to point out that, at this juncture, there are a lot of unknowns about what we'll need and what we'll have available to us next summer—and even the potential effect that winning versus losing the 2010 championship might have on the appeal of this team in the eyes of free agents.

Sam

thanks for the topic, SD, i'm glad to see the conversation it opens up.

Sam said earlier, "another thing that seems obvious is that experience can be much more of a positive than age can be a negative. It amazes me how much conjecture about the Celtics, from day one, has revolved about how age could drag them down rather than on how experience could buoy them—especially when adversity arises", and overall i am in that camp. experience, having been there before, is a huge plus, especially come play-off time, as long as the legs are still resilient and the conditioning is there. (Hellooooo, Sheed !! )

but regarding TA, i guess i really need to watch more closely - maybe it's the teeny computer screen i've been watching many games on up until recently - because i haven't been sold at all on his ability to contribute within his role, much less when the chips are down. i can still see him dribbling off his foot at just the wrong time ! (and is there ever a right time ? )

i just can't seem to step up onto that new TA bandwagon ... but that's just me ...
Michael in Denver

bygpyg

He delivered against Orlando. He is playing pretty damn well. (TONY) This is a guy who does not even have his game legs yet conditioning wise. Whos playing himself into shape. Will it last? I don't know. But he is helping the team quite a bit right now.

Inregards to the Celtics age. I don't think it is hurting them and indeed think the collective experience of the vets is helping them greatly. They just don't rattle. Look at the lakes coming UNGLUED on national TV. I have yet to see the Celts do that this year. They have had games where they got outplayed but the FACT is they could have won every game. No other team in the nba can say that at this juncture. I also so feel like the fact that we have won hellz what is it 14 of 15 now with different lineups and at least two of our best guys in street clothes says that once this team gets all it's pieces and parts on the floor and plays together a while the rest of the nba had better look out. I dont think we have seen the best or even close yet. If I sound like a homer so be it. It is also what I really think. Nobody else in the nba has the balance and depth we do.

I think we have a legit shot at the crown the next two years. I experienced the same 22 years in the wilderness we all did but just cant shake the feeling that we are back. For real. for good. I like what I see out of Danny and I think Paul, Kevin and Ray will all retire Celtics. Those guys have made their money...what they are onto now is something waaaaayyyy bigger. History.

SD

I'm going to give this one a shot.

At the end of the year Boston will have to make decisions about several players.

The biggest decision this year has already been made. They have secured Rondo through 2015.

The next major decision will be the one involving Ray Allen. At the right price Ray can still be an effective shooting guard for at least 3 years because of his physical condition. If the Celtics do not resign Ray they will need to find another shooting guard. If Boston wins the championship this year I am pretty sure that Ray gets another contract. If they lose and Ray's performance at the 2 is in question than anything can happen.

Scalabinbe, House, Daniels, Tony Allen and Williams will be free agents. The Celtics should be able to retain 3 of these players. Daniels was signed on the cheap with an eye towards a bigger pay check next year but he is injured again and as I have said before, he has a history of nagging injuries. If TA stays healthy this year and continues to play well, I think Boston will try to retain him and let Daniels walk. The Celtics may keep Williams as well for the right price. Scals and house have under studies in the wings.

The Celtics have 3 young players on the roster that are still waiting for their turn (Giddens, Walker and Hudson) It has been virtually impossible to develop these assets because Boston is a deep veteran team.

If House leaves than that will open the door for Hudson.

If Daniels or Scals are not resigned it opens the door for both Walker and Giddens.

I think JR is going to be a really good all around player. Hudson is quick, physical and can shoot the ball from the perimeter. Walker is a question mark in my mind.

In sum although several of our front line players are getting up there in age we have young veterans in Rondo, Perk, baby and TA plus a third level of 3 players just waiting to get their chance.

No one can possibly predict what will happen however if you look closely at the structure of this team DA has put together a roster that provides the team with the ability to compete long term.

And there is some 1st round pick in the future that is just waiting to be drafted. It could be another Rondo or Perkins.

I think we just need to let this team go through the natural matriculation process.

dboss

SDCF,

Firstly, the Wick/Rowe era preceded the Bird era. Secondly, the actual fall from contention after the Bird era had many causes. The aging of the original Big Three was a factor, but that and the many other events that occured in the late 80's and throughout the 90's are still very much so the ingrediants to a great debate.

I find it very ironic that we were all clammering for more experienced players when the Celtics had mostly athletic youth getting the playing time and now some are clammering for athletic youth when the Celtics have mostly experienced players getting the PT.

Experience (if managed and applied correctly) always beats youth, or so they say. I believe that drastic change is only needed if something is broken badly and needs fixing right now. IMO, that is not the case with the current Celtic team. Our current record bears this out. Our team's record in another month and the results during the playoffs will either reinforce this assumption or throw it in the crapper.

It is really hard to think logically about what changes the Celtics will need to make during the next off-season when we don't know who the Celtics will have under contract when the season ends. I believe whatever Danny does at the trading deadline directly and hugely impacts the off-season needs.

That is why many on this board think that this discussion is a tad premature. There are too many unknowns and too many assumptions to make in order to make any real valid conclusions. The more pressing issue at this time (IMO) is how the Celtics will improve at the trading deadline.

gyso

Boston is back on the map in terms of places where free agents want to play, and great players ALWAYS like to play alongside a great PG.

The Celtics will be just fine.

mrkleen09 wrote:Boston is back on the map in terms of places where free agents want to play, and great players ALWAYS like to play alongside a great PG.

The Celtics will be just fine.

kleen,

Good, to the point summary of the situation.

Regards

SD,

I do think your question is relevant because there are a couple of logical courses that management could take -- a) ride this group of veterans until it falls apart; or b) try to trade some veterans and rebuild on the fly to stay competitive longer. Both options have their risks. I'm inclined to favor keeping the veteran group together as long as possible because the opportunity to have a championship-caliber team is rare, but the ability to rebuild on the fly is even rarer. Take advantage of the opportunity you've been able to build, right here, right now.

Outside

The relevancy of this post was questioned before the current 3-game losing streak. I have listed reasons in previous posts why I felt a youthful, talented frontcourt player HAS to be brought into this team no later than next year. I have listed Bosh, Lee, Jamison (he is not young), and others who would make the Celtics more competitive against younger, running teams.

Don't tell me Pierce, Garnett, and Allen haven't lost at least half a step, and aren't more injury-prone. The lack of athleticism of the Celtics has been magnified this year and late last year because of Garnett's injury / recovery. Pacing and poor rebounding further reflect frontcourt problems.
When the Celtics have played against weak frontcourt teams the Celtics haven't been able to take advantage.

No, teams have a blue print on how to beat the Celtics: pressure, pressure, pressure - both offensively and defensively. Just the blueprint the Celtics should be using, but can't or won't with current frontcourt. You had better believe talented athletisim and younger legs would go a long way in improving this Celtic team.

Go Celtics!!

The relevancy of the post was not in question from me. Nor does a three game losing streak alter how I feel in any way.

You cant have it both ways daddy o. Ainge could have kept Jefferson and you would have had young legs as far as the eye could see.

Instead he made a glorious move and hung another banner in the air. We all knew the window here was not going to last for ever.

It doesn't have to end, Jeb, without continuing a strong team. That is my argument. It has been my impression that this Celtic frontcourt began its deterioration with KG's injury last season. In my opinion this deterioration has continued, even with the addition of Wallace. Opposing NBA teams realize the Celtics frontline is not particularly athletic and backup point guard is a problem. Therefore: pressure and more pressure the Celtics.
The Celtics try to pace themselves: that is evident to everyone in the NBA. Rivers said the Celtics do not always play smart. Ainge says the Celtics have been pacing themselves.

Again, I feel this team has aged considerably since championship season because of bruising minutes on the basketball court, attitude, and injuries. Also, teams have learned how to compete against the Celtics style of ball, and lack of frontcourt athleticism.

I feel this team has little chance of winning an 18th title given its current roster. Considering age, injuries, attitude, lack of athleticism I feel the window has already closed on this Celtic team. Even prior to Garnett's and Pierce' injuries, where were the offensive rebounds? Where were the free throws? Where was the aggressiveness? Where ere the assists and ball movement in 4th quarters? The Celtics' record is still very good. The Schedule has had a lot to do with that. Close game against inferior opponents have been too frequent.

This doesn't mean I am not a strong Celtic fan. I watch Comcast every Celtic game that is not on national television. But maybe the fact that I am quite a distance from Boston makes me more of a realist.

In my mind the worst thing the Celtics can do is sit pat the next few years.
I have confidence Ainge feels the same way.
Go Celtics!!