Who Fits In?

Who Fits In?

I think at this point we can be reasonably sure that there is a good chance that theres a possibility that, most likley we're going to be looking at what could very well end up being most probabaly a lotto draft pick for the Celtics That doesnt mean we're tanking, and there's no need to go into how we might feel about how some people might feel about whether or not we are indeed tanking. Thats not why this exercise is being written by me and read by you.

Instead I wanted to look at the ramifications of getting a lotto pick, in paticuler, what will seemingly be a top 10 pick in this upcoming draft. So I strolled over to ESPN's website (and I apologize to all intelligent sports fans out there if they are offended by that choice, but I add my disclaimer, I merely needed a list of top ten potential lotto picks and ESPN bless their Miami Heat obsessed hearts, had one) anyhow, according to the Heat Inde.. I mean ESPN.. heres the top 10 guys coming in this summers draft- in positional order

5's- Joel Embiid- 19 yrs old, 7'0, 250 lbs

4's- Julius Randal- 19 yrs old, 6'9, 225 lbs
Aaron Gordon- 19 yrs old 6'8, 210 lbs
Noah Vonleh- 18 yrs old, 6'10, 240 lbs
Dario Saric- 19 yrs old, 6'10, 223 lbs

3's- Jabari Parker- 18 yrs old, 6'8 240 lbs

2-s Andrew Wiggens- 18 yrs old 6'8 200 lbs

1's – Dante Exum 18 yrs old, 6'6, 188 lbs
Marcus Smart- 19 yrs old, 6'4, 225 lbs
Tyler Ennis 19 yrs old, 6'2, 180

First off a slight rant, I really, REALLY wish the league would raise the age linit to at least 20 to be able to enter the league, bringing in a bunch of damn kids (and I mean that in the best way possible) to change the fortunes of the leagues worst teams is a crapshoot at best.. (see Greg Oden, Royce White and that kid the Cavs just drafted at number 1)

Ok Back to the point of all this, which of these younglings is going to make the best choice for the Celtics, lets just suppose we ended up with the number 1 pick, who do we take?

We've already got this Rondo kid who seems to be the real deal at the point, now unless Danny see's something in one of these kids that says that he can be as good as Rondo within the next two seasons- so Danny can send Rondo off somewheres else and get ba'agillionzilliondillion draft picks back we aint taking a point guard. So goodbye, Exum, Smart and Ennis..

Bradley is likewise turning into a premier shooting guard, Im not sure i'd take him over Wiggens though, acualy the reverse is true, yes you take Wiggens over Bradley, keep them as Wiggens devolopes and see how he does playing soe time at the three as well. So if we have the chance to take Wiggens do we? Absolutely. For ****ts and giggles im tossing Aaron Gordon into this discusion even though he's a 4 in collage, thats not happeninging in the NBA at 6'8 and 210, Gordon is a 2 or a 3.. Im not taking him to replace bradley though, and probably not over Green either.

At the 3 we've got the couldbe-shouldbe-but aint got the heart (no pun intended) superstar that isnt jeff Green, does this draft offer any improvements over what Jeff already provides us? Maybe...? That Maybe is Parker, who has NBA genitics on his side already and could eclipse in a couple seasons of bulk adding and expereince what Jeff Green is now. Is Parker a future superstar? I'm not going to put it past him to get some All Star Gams under his belt before his career is all said and done, but he is not likely a future MVP, though he does pattern his game after Paul Peirce, and i'd take a future finals MVP over a reguler season MVP any day. Gordan who has already been mentioned could see time in the NBA as a 3 as well and so could Randall, but I guessing that neither has a ceiling much higher than Jeff Green's roof that we're learning to accept.

The 4's: We got Sully the Swag Bear, Randall and Gordon will not be a better fit as power forwards than Sully on any team in the league. I really like the size of Noah Vonleh however, still, we got Sully. Mebbe if Vonlleh grew another coupe inches between now and June and added 15 lbs or so we could use him at the five? Still at the moment with Sully we're sitting good.

5- What Boston really needs is some bad@$$ who would kill his own mother for a buck fifty and toss his favorite grandmother in the deal just because, who also loves to rebound, block shots and beat the living hell out of anyone not wearing the same color of jersey. Sadly we already traded Kendrick Perkins to Seatle-Oklahomah for Jeff Green. So now we got our abover average small forward who'll never be The GUY- but im getting off track, thats the guy we need, and we want. I really dont know if Joel Embiid has that sort of chip on his shoulder, or the desire to eat human flesh just because the poor b@$tard stepped into the post with him being there himself within the last hour or so. Would Embiid become so enraged at a bad call in the Eastern Confernce finals that he'd slay ½ the Miami Heats team with the jawbone of a piss poor referee- or better yet David Sterns jawbone?

If yes, then this is the guy we want, but I dont know if he is THAT guy, What im sure of is that he's somewhere between a Fab Melo and a Hakeem Olajuwon, most likely ending up more on the side of The Dream than otherwise, just how much closer is anyone's guess, The Kid is still learning the game, but seems to have an arseload of potential, how muich more so that the rest of these kids will that potential be realized or not realized is the ninty nine billion dollar question.

So what are we left with? If Embiid is availible when we pick, we've really no choice, we take the risk. Though the risk might be less with other players he posses the ability to perhaps fill our greatest need. Wiggins could replace Bradley and Parker could replace Green, making both those players tradable assets come this summer. The other guys? Right now, I cant see us in the market for any of them over guys we've got now, meaning, just like when we traded the 5th pick (after loosing out on Oden- (thank God) and Kevin Durant) for Ray Allen I think we could be in store for another major draft for star type of trade.

Matty said

I think at this point we can be reasonably sure that there is a good chance that theres a possibility that, most likley we're going to be looking at what could very well end up being most probabaly a lotto draft pick for the Celtics,

Matty to some it up...are you sure !!

loved the line by the way

beat

BobH,

We could also be first, or second, or fourth, or fifth. Beauty of a lottery system.

Boston could very well end up with a top 1 or 2 pick.




KJ

Matty, I've only had a chance to watch Jabari Parker. That said I'm convinced he's the real deal, a big improvement over Jeff Green, and someone who WILL be a star in the NBA.

My concern about 7'0" 19 year olds is that they've grown too fast for their leg bone growth plates to consolidate, and those playing an 82+ game schedule are at great risk of career ending injuries - like Oden and Bynum.

A big worry.

worcester wrote:My concern about 7'0" 19 year olds is that they've grown too fast for their leg bone growth plates to consolidate, and those playing an 82+ game schedule are at great risk of career ending injuries - like Oden and Bynum.

A big worry.

This is an excellent observation.

Of course, this occurrence seems to happen more frequently with present-day athletes than in the past.



KJ

They're younger and leave college much sooner. 6' guards don't face nearly the same growth plate risks.

Wiggins is mostly considered to be a SF in this draft. Gordon should be listed at 6'9" and is long. He'll be a PF in the NBA but he'll need to get bigger.

Noah Vonleh is one I find extremely intriguing. He's 6'10" but is extremely long. With his athleticism, he could be a shot blocker in this league and anchor the D. Also he's a local kid from Haverhill.

I have to say, even though he's not a center, I like Jabari Parker the most out of this draft class.


KJ

beat wrote:Matty said

I think at this point we can be reasonably sure that there is a good chance that theres a possibility that, most likley we're going to be looking at what could very well end up being most probabaly a lotto draft pick for the Celtics,

Matty to some it up...are you sure !!
beat

anything can happen a wise Celtic once said..

For the 20th time I see us picking Jabari Parker. He's been on Danny's radar screen since the day his father became a Mormon. Jabari can shoot from the outside, drive to the inside, rebound, defend, muscle and finesse. He's a big upgrade for us at the three, and he gives us options with JG. Jabari's still growing too. Don't forget he's only 19 and may gain an inch and some more beef...

Since it's an imaginary draft with the Celtics having an imaginary pick, I'd still pick Embiid with pick #3-#5, I imagine.

Hey Outside, would you please bottle up some of your imagination and mail it to: Mr. Danny Ainge; Boston Celtics; 226 Causeway St.; Boston, MA 02114?

Thank you ,

Sam

Andrew Wiggins, Kansas, Freshman - 6'8", 197#, SF, 7'0" wingspan.

If Wiggins is 6'8", I guess that makes Embiid about 7'4".



When I've seen him play, Wiggins looks scrawny to me. What if he's really 6'5" and 190 pounds?

A guy like that succeeds in the NBA occasionally, like Steph Curry, but that seems like a once-in-a-generation thing, and that exemption won't be available for another 15 years or so. I think Wiggins would be wise to stay another year or two and mature physically. Otherwise, he should expect to be abused by guys who are much heavier and twice as strong.

bobheckler wrote:Have you noticed, there isn't one single leviathon in the bunch?  Only 3 centers in the top 14 and they all weigh in the 240s.  Not prime NBA beef on the hoof, just the prerequisite height...

Do any of those 240# centers make you drool? Kentucky center Anthony Davis was a draft pick savant's love object. In the NBA he plays PF. Think a 240-something pounder can play center in the NBA without being bounced around? Kelly Olynyk is listed as 238#.

It's remarkable to me that any of these guys are 240 pounds. Back when I played, guys coming out of high school were all skinny as rails and didn't begin to bulk up until they were juniors or seniors in college. Now the basketball guys coming out of high school look bigger than the football guys used to.

I haven't seen any of the centers play, but being only 240 pounds wouldn't scare me away by itself. What's most important to me is whether a guy has a center's attitude -- does he play like a center, or would he rather extend his range and work on his perimeter skills.

When evaluating the college guys, two examples I'll use as contrasts are Anthony Davis and Cody Zeller.

(And Bob, I consider Davis a center, not a power forward. Look at his highlights, and you'll see the other team's center guards him. Depending on the matchup, he may guard the other team's center or power forward, but he's always dropping back to the paint to get blocks and otherwise anchor the defense like a center would.)

Pre-draft measurements for Davis from DraftExpress:

Height without shoes - 6' 9.25"
Weight - 222
Wingspan - 7' 5.5"
Standing reach - 9' 0"
Standing vertical leap - n/a
Max vertical leap - n/a

Pre-draft measurements for Zeller from DraftExpress:

Height without shoes - 6' 10.75"
Weight - 230
Wingspan - 6' 10.75"
Standing reach - 8' 10"
Standing vertical leap - 35.5"
Max vertical leap - 37.5"

Davis was a little shorter but had a great wingspan. Zeller was a little heavier, and his reach and wingspan wasn't as good as Davis, but he had impressive leaping ability (we unfortunately don't have those numbers for Davis, but for comparison purposes, DeAndre Jordan had a 26" standing leap and 30.5" max leap).

Can you tell who is a center from this information? I can't. But there was a HUGE disparity in this regard when I watched them play in college.

On offense at Kentucky, Davis had a limited game of mostly putbacks, dunks, and a move or two around the basket. On defense, he was like the second coming of Bill Russell -- owning the paint, blocking everything in sight, daring anyone to come into his territory.

Watching Zeller play last year at Indiana, the word that came to mind was "soft." On offense, he routinely got pushed around and wound up on the floor, he was remarkably ineffective around the basket, and he felt much more comfortable using his athletic skills on the break or 15-20 feet from the basket. On defense, he was focused on his man. He didn't have a center's mindset at all.

The Celtics need a center. If they don't trade for one, I would be extremely disappointed if they don't draft one. I'll hopefully get a chance to watch some of these guys play as we get closer to the tournament, but the main thing I'll be looking for will be who has a center's attitude. The height and weight stuff doesn't tell us the story.

Outside,

I have to agree with you. Seeing Wiggins on the court gave me the exact same impression. At only 200 lbs he would struggle against the beefier SFs in the league. Hence why I like Parker more. His body is more NBA ready and he can probably do everything Wiggins can do.



KJ

This draft might be overated, we really can't tell until 2 years after the draft class is drafted, each player has flaws and consistency issues.

On that note of what I have seen Embiid looks really skinny to me, he might be a bigger version of Ibaka without the jump shot and could be another version of Thabeet, which is not good. Embiid would get pushed around by most centers pretty easy right now.

Wiggins reminds me of Reggie Lewis, hes also going to need alot more strength, definitely has the athleticism, but so does Jeff Green. May be somewhat of a tweener, to upright to chase 2's and not strong enough to battle 3's. I'd try to develop him as a 3, needs alot of work in the weight room.

Jabari Parker looks like an ideal 3, very strong and skilled, probably the safest pick. Randle could be a Walter Berry clone or a more athletic lefty Karl Malone....both of these kids are finding their games and neither can carry his team yet.

All 4 are crapshoots, none are going to be the next Lebron or Durant, but I could be wrong? all I know is it hasn't been easy to replace Perk and maybe one of these picks will be the next big thing, some get better, some level off, most never fulfill their promise. Theres alot of Jeff Greens and Cory Brewers and Gerald Greens out there....is Michael Kidd G ever gonna get an offensive game?

Outside, I agree with you that center needs to be a priority for the Celtics. I'd prefer a trade, largely because (1) it could happen sooner than the draft and (2) they'd be more likely to get an NBA-ready player who is a known quantity rather than having to spend time in developing one.

Sam