Boston Celtics Center Solutions: Marcin Gortat

http://hardwoodhoudini.com/2014/05/02/boston-celtics-center-solutions-marcin-gortat/



Boston Celtics Center Solutions: Marcin Gortat


BY RICHARD SPALDING - MAY 2ND, 2014 AT 12:47 PM



Earlier this week, I started taking a look at the glaring weakness the Boston Celtics had to work around all season long: their lack of a gifted center.

Now, the Celtics could deem Vitor Faverani the starting center of the future, which seems just a tad risky to me.  Boston could also attempt to land a center in this year’s draft, which translates into “Give up an arm and a leg in order to acquire the University of Kansas’ Joel Embiid.”  With Kentucky’s Wille Cauley-Stein opting not to enter this year’s draft, the only center truly worth looking at is Embiid, and the chances of Boston seeing his name still on the board when they pick is slim . . . so unless the Celtics want to do some wheeling-and-dealing to ensure that they get their hands on the Jayhawk, Boston may have to turn to free agency in order to land the big man of their, ah, needs.

After looking at, and passing on, Spencer Hawes of the Cleveland Cavaliers, I focus my attention on another big man who is set to become a free agent this offseason:  Marcin Gortat, currently playing with those pleasantly-surprising Washington Wizards.   Always one to seek the advice of the experts, I asked Ben Mehic, editor of our Wiz of Awes site, to give me the skinny on Gortat.  here’s what Ben gave me:

Strengths:
- Marcin Gortat’s biggest strength as a big man is undoubtedly his ability to execute the pick-and-roll. Of course, it takes two to apply the play, but I’m sure Rajon Rondo would have no problem gaining chemistry with Gortat in that situation. Gortat flourished with Steve Nash because of the pick-and-roll and he’s has similar success playing along side John Wall. Gortat has good hands and he finishes pretty well around the basket, but having a capable point guard might be necessary for him to play at his full potential.

- Prior to the trade that sent Gortat over to Washington, I had no idea that he was able to knock down the 10-15 foot jump shot. He shot over 46% from the free throw line area, which makes him a duel threat off the pick-and-roll, since he’s able to stop and pop without always have to get to the basket. Gortat has also done a very solid job of protecting the rim and rebounding the ball. Washington has been top-10 defensively all year long and Gortat could be credited with some of their consistency on that side of the floor.

Weaknesses:
- A lot of things Gortat does on the court are surprising, considering his size, but they certainly aren’t always pleasant. Gortat is a skilled big, but he still struggles to score with his back to the basket. Washington has run their offense through him in the post at times, and more often than not, it doesn’t go as planned. Don’t get me wrong; he’s capable of scoring down low, but if you’re relying on his post game, then your team is going to have some trouble. Lets just say, he’s no Hakeem Olajuwon.

- Though Gortat is better defensively than I expected, he still struggled to guard bigs that are able to score off the dribble. He’s not the quickest big in the world and he’ll have a tough time defending athletic forwards/centers.

To emphasize his, “He’s no Hakeem Olajuwon” point, Ben included a link to this video:




Yikes.  Look like he almost snapped his leg off at the ankle right there.

Here’s the deal: I like Gortat, and he’s clearly a step up from Spencer Hawes.  He’s not a total defensive liability, and he will give the Celtics points from a position their offense didn’t see much production from in ’13-14.  Still, if Boston is truly looking for a rim-protector, Gortat is not the best option.  I say he’s worth a look, possibly as a plan B.  Still, there are better options out there, so the Celtics should consider Gortat a fall-back option, at best.



bob
MY NOTE:  I like Gortat.  I think he's one of the fundamentally soundest centers in the league.  High IQ.  Unselfish to a fault.  Doesn't demand the ball but moves very well without it.  Outstanding on pick-and-rolls.  Blocks shots well, not great, but alters more.  Can't say that about Monroe. He'll also be a lot cheaper than Monroe. Which "athletic centers" is he talking about?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gortama01.html

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sam wrote:As I said above, I wouldn't assume the Celtics could sign Gortat as a free agent.  I'm betting the Wiz would swoop in and do a sign-and-trade.

My bet is that, for the right acquisition, Danny would prefer a trade including a PF (with which the Celtics are overloaded) and draft picks.  Because of the offsetting salary requirement, a trade would automatically mean that the acquisition would not add to the Celtics' cap figure.  If there's cap room, use it to re-sign your own players, your own draft picks, and maybe a relatively low-cost free agent wing.

What's with all the emphasis on money anyway?  As I'm fond of saying, I'm a fan, not a treasurer.  I believe the issue is: Of those player(s) who might possibly be available, which one(s) would be the best possible fit for what the Celtics need now and moving forward?  Let Danny worry about how to get him.

Sam

sam,


As I understand the way things work the Wiz can't do a sign-and-trade unless Gortat agrees.  If he wants to sign with the Celtics then that's that.  If a players' former team can just "swoop in and do a sign-and-trade" then what's the difference between UFA and RFA?

Rondo becomes a UFA after next year.  If he wants to be gone, and someone has the cap space to do it on his own (and for players like him that's the key stumbling point) there's nothing that Danny can do about it.  Remember Tony Allen?  He wanted to go and Danny couldn't just say "sure, I'll give you whatever you want and then trade you to Memphis" if Tony didn't want to go along with that and if Memphis didn't want to give up what Danny wanted. Being UFA means the only team that has any say in it is the acquirer. Danny may want to do a sign-and-trade, to unload Bass' contract, but other than that it's not necessary and there's nothing Washington can do about it.

I'm sure Professor Gyso can shed some light on this.


bob


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Outside wrote:Miscellaneous thoughts.

Between Gortat and Asik, get the one you can get first. If Ainge has a deal for one, he shouldn't sit on it in the hopes of getting a deal for the other.

The author of the piece in the original post seems to base his assessment of Gortat on "he's no Olajuwon." Well, thanks for that insight, Captain Obvious, but you can literally say that about every center in the league, so that's not helpful. He almost seems intent on making Gortat look bad. I don't think Gortat is nearly as bad defensively as this guy portrays him.

kdp, there's no way anyone is signing Gortat for $6 million-$8 million. As you said in a previous post, who else is out there? Good centers are a rare commodity and will command a premium price, not a discount one. I think $10 million-$12 million is more realistic, and if you can get him at that price, jump on it.

The better Gortat plays and the deeper Washington goes in the playoffs, the stronger the bond becomes to his current team and the more likely Gortat re-signs with them.

I think sign-and-trade deals get worked out for unrestricted free agents because the team signing the free agent want to unload salary or free up roster spots and the free agent's former team wants to get something in return for him, so they wind up being more beneficial to both sides than a straight signing would be.

kdp, you bring up a good point about whether Hawes is more the type of center Stevens wants, but do we know for sure that is the case? One of the lessons of Stevens' rookie season may be that rim protection is more valuable than outside shooting for a center. Yes, he wanted his bigs this year to have an outside shot, but that makes sense if you're working from a position of being undersized. That doesn't necessarily mean that having a stretch 5 is Stevens' preference. I've heard Ainge mention the need for a rim protector type guy on several occasions, so even if Stevens didn't lean that way previously, I'll bet Ainge has done his best to educate Stevens on the value of a rim protector center.

outside,

Excellent post.


bob


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Sign-and-trades (S&Ts) can happen for unrestricted free agents, but the team needs the UFA player's permission to pull the trigger.  Case in point: BBD for Brandon Bass.  

Big Baby was a UFA and wanted a big payday, which he wasn't going to get from the Celtics.   Orlando was trying to curry favor with Dwight Howard, so they went after Davis, hoping that would make Howard happy enough to stay.  Davis and Howard were friends dating back to their AAU days.  BBD took the money and ran.

Bass was expiring, so the Magic GM took some heat for the trade.  In the end, the trade was beneficial for both teams.

The S&T also included old friend, Von Wafer, another UFA that had played for the Celtics the prior season.  I believe that he was just happy to get another contract, so he agreed to go to the Magic in the S&T.

gyso

sam wrote:A lot of nice posts, but I'm still not seeing them address the gaping hole the Celtics have for a real defensive intimidator at center.  It's not just gaping; it's cavernous.  I like Gortat, and he could definitely help a team offensively, including the Celtics.  But does he fit the description of a defensive intimidator in the middle.  For my money, no one else need apply.  And please don't tell me that Sully can be that person because, despite the many great things he did last season, he played center most of the time and opponents ran layup drills more often than not.

Sam

sam,

If Gortat doesn't fit the bill defensively then only player that I can think of that could be even remotely possibly available, is Joel Embiid. I'm not as high on Asik due to his limited lateral quickness.


Here's Hoopshype's scouting report on Gortat. Note how they say he has excellent shot blocking skills.

Quite an athlete... Excellent rebounding and shot-blocking skills... Very good mobility for his size... Runs the floor welll... Has developed a mid-range shot... Offensive game is not very polished, though.

Now, here's Hoopshype's scouting report on Asik.

Great size and even better wingspan... Very good athlete for European standards... Nice shot blocking skills... A warrior defensively... Doesn't try to do things he can't do... Conditioning is a concern.

Basketball-reference.com has Asik with 1.4 blocks/36mpg this year but averaging 2.25blks/36mpg over 2 years in Chicago. If you want to use Thib's system as a more appropriate system for Asik than McHale's system, fine. Gortat averaged 1.6blocks/36mpg this year in D.C. but averaged 2.35blks/36 for 2 of the 4 years he was backing up Howard in Orlando, under SVG's "funnel everybody towards the middle so that our centers can block them" defense. My point is that I don't see big differences between the two statistically. Visually, I think Gortat has better IQ, a mid-range jumper and movement without the ball and a better team-oriented attitude (he never said one bad word about almost splitting the minutes 32 vs 29 with Nene this year). Asik also garners 3.4 PFs/36mpg, and that's a BIG improvement from when he was in Chicago, and has a terrible assist-TO ratio. Gortat gets 2.7 PFs/36 and has a positive assist-TO ratio. I realize that the assist issue isn't a requirement thing for you, but the empty possessions from TOs can kill you. Obviously, having comparable blocks and fewer PFs is better too.

No, Sully is NOT the solution to this problem.


bob


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I forgot to mention that a UFA with a team that has his Bird rights can always sign for a higher salary and for more years in a S&T than he can by just signing with a new team.

The team that he leaves gets something back for their trouble.  Sometimes it is a better player, sometimes it is a salary dump.

It is a symbiotic relationship.

gyso

kdp59 wrote:let me make something clear here.....Hawes is not my first choice at center next year.

but I do have a gut feeling that hawes is exactly what Stevens likes in his big men. I mean how many times do we need to see Sully and Fav shooting those threes?

maybe I am dead wrong...I hope so, frankly.

the second reason I can see the roster I threw together on this thread is I don;t see the Re build as  one year thing.

why over-pay for a player like Gortat who's AGE and skill set are not elite?

we all see the holes on this team ( Center and go-to scorer), but realistically we will not fill both holes in one off season ( no matter how much we want it).

If the team is lucky enough to fill one spot ( probably in this years draft and if so it'll take time) by drafting Embiid or Parker....WONDERFUL!

but I can't see both needs being filled, so we have to look at alternatives that help the team short term, without killing our long term chances (big FA deal to Gortat, massive trade and contract to Asik, etc).

finally, Sam you listed  some teams that went out and got defensive centers when they "needed" them.......I don't see ONE championship for any of those teams however. Except going back in time to Parish, Kareem, Russell.

maybe in todays NBA we are OVER- emphasizing a defensive elite center, over TEAM defense.

But I would note (as I did in a previous post) that we already have two top shot blockers on this current team , Joel has an average of 2.3 blocks per 36 min while Fav averaged 2.0 over 36 min.

both player had higher averages than players like Mozgov, Steamer, Drummond, Adams, Gortat, Noah, Asik, Chandler,Both Gasol Brothers and of course Hawes (who by the way averaged the same 1.4 blocks per 36 min as Marc Gasol).

so IF we looking for shot blockers...it appears we may have them on our roster already. Too bad the other parts of their game is not NBA ready or on Fav's case not yet perhaps.

kdp,


Nice post.  I, for one, didn't misunderstand your view on Hawes.  Clarity is always valued though.

Joel Anthony does have pretty nice blocks/36mpg numbers.  When he came here I was more positive about that than many.  I had watched him compete against Perk and KG for years and thought he did a very underappreciated but solid job against them despite giving up weight to Perk and height to KG.  I didn't see him as a "rim protector" but I knew he played the center position for years and we needed one of those in almost any size, shape or form.  However, Joel has not averaged even 10mpg for 3 years now.  That means those blocks/36mpg are based upon very limited minutes.  I'm going to assume he's going to exercise his player option and be with the Celtics next year.  I'd like to see him get more minutes.  I would rather have Joel play the position he has played the entire 7 years he has been in the league and let Sully develop into the position he should be playing, PF.

Vitor only played 488 minutes last year.  Some of that is due to his season-ending surgery and some of it was due to the fact that he didn't set picks that so much as made contact with a defender, got pushed under the basket by opposing centers and didn't play very good pick-and-roll defense.  If there's something to be said in Vitor's defense, his 2.0 blocks/36 are more representative than the 2.3 blocks/36 made in the mere 148 minutes Joel played with us.  Most of Vitor's minutes came in the very beginning of the season when Stevens saw him as the only player with an NBA center's body on the roster.  Stevens' opinion changed as he reviewed game film after game film after game film.  I was pretty high on Vitor in the beginning but soured on him just like Stevens did.  Il Hombre Indestructible played like he was made out of fine china.  Hopefully, with a year of seeing what life is really like in the NBA trenches, he'll be more "assertive" next year.

Do you realize there isn't even a ballot option on the All-Star ballot for Center anymore?  That is a development that was inconceivable to most of us just a few years ago and yet here we are.  How much of that is the advancement of athleticism in the NBA, where having a bigger, slower defensive (boat) anchor is no longer a competitive edge and how much of it is just the modern swoon with uber-athleticism of certain wingmen (starting with MJ, on to Kobe and then to LBJ) coupled with the drafting of underclassmen who haven't been well schooled in big man fundamentals?  I don't know the answer to that, but "it is what it is".  The pendulum could swing back, however, just as rapidly as it did going forward.  Howard, Pekovic, Noah, Lopez (both of them), Drummond, Plumlee (both of them) could be the robins of that new center spring.  Add Embiid and Cauley-Stein next year and voila!  They're baaaack!  And then every GM will be scrambling their rosters to compete just as Danny and others scrambled their rosters to compete with the new paradigm of uber-athletic wings with LBJ leading that charge.

Michael Jordan had not one, but two, 3-headed monsters.  He had Cartwright, Perdue and Nevitt for the 1st 3 championships and Longley, Wennington and Kleine for the next 3.  Of those 6 centers only Kleine was under 7'0" (he was 6'11").  None of them were individually dominating, but they physically held their own defensively and MJ, Pippen and Kukoc did the rest.  After the Bulls the Spurs had Robinson and Duncan.  That's a pretty dominating frontcourt, wouldn't you say?  Twin towers.  Then, along came Shaq.  Even subsequent Laker championship teams had Gasol and Bynum (when he was 22 going on 19 (mentally) and not his knees being 25 going on 45).  That's an impressive twin towers too and those are recent championships.

Yeah, it almost certainly will take more than a year to finish the rebuild, if it was that easy every GM could do it, but there's a lot to be said for developing and playing in a system and that is hard to do if you don't have the horses the system needs.  That, I believe, is the secret to the Spurs' successes over the past decade and a half.  Pop has a system and he has been plugging new players into that system as needed, just like Red did.  We need to get players who fit into Stevens' system and maybe not worry so much about whether they're going to be here for 8 years or not.  Let's get the players who will be here for a long time plugged in and then, when we can upgrade a position, we do it.

Gortat will be 31 next February.  At the center position he could be good for another 3 years as a starter.  Gortat's not a max contract player who will get a 5 year contract, he'll get 3 or 4 years at most.  I'm just fine with having a high IQ player, who is not a tweener, helping to create a groove with the young'uns for the next 3-4 years and try to develop/sign his upgrade (or another head of our own monster) in the meanwhile.  



bob



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