Danny Ainge: A Draft History

http://blogs.southcoasttoday.com/kuriosities/2014/05/21/danny-ainge-a-draft-history/







Danny Ainge, a draft history
By BRENDAN KURIE | Published: MAY 21, 2014


I couldn’t have been more excited for the 1997 draft lottery. I was 13, and had spent my formative hoops-watching years watching idly as Bird, Mchale and Parish got old, Reggie Lewis died and Dino Radja shot too many baseline jumpers. That year, thanks to two top picks (one acquired from nearly-as-horrid Dallas), the Celtics had a 36 percent chance at the No. 1 pick, and Tim Duncan.

But we all know this story. We know about 51 games of Chauncey Billups before Pitino tired of him. We try to forget about Ron Mercer (even the Celtics war room looked like the line at the unemployment office). We know the team got better anyway, thanks to the No. 10 pick the next year and the — you guessed it — sixth pick from the year before.

Last night the Celtics once again found itself clutching a wilted four-leaf clover, destined for a six-spot, too low for Embiid or Parker or Wiggins or even Exum. This, Danny Ainge’s 12th draft as the Celtics GM, will be spent be in the land of Randles and Gordons and McDermotts.

The options are endless, with a roster in flux and few legitimate pieces going forward. Like 2007, the upcoming month could determine Boston’s next half-decade. How will Ainge fare?  To look forward what do we do? Look back, of course.

If you don’t like reading 3,000 words on 11 Celtics drafts, skip to the bottom for my conclusions.


2003
Marcus Banks (16th), Kendrick Perkins (20th), Brandon Hunter (56th). Technically, Ainge drafted Troy Bell 16th and Dahntay Jones 20th, but he swapped them for Banks (13th) and Perkins (27th) on draft night. For purposes of comparison, we will base this draft on the slots Ainge started with.

Analysis: Ainge did a solid job his first season on the job, but not because of Banks or Hunter. Hunter played 67 games before he was out of the league at age 24. Banks spent a little more than two seasons in Boston, averaging just over 5 ppg before being dealt in an eight-player deal with Minnesota (Banks, Ricky Davis, Justin Reed and a 2nd round pick (turned into Craig Smith) for Wally Szczerbiak, Michael Olowakandi, Dwayne Jones and a 1st rounder (turned into Jonny Flynn)). Banks bounced around the league, was twice traded alongside Shawn Marion and never averaged more than 10 ppg or 3.8 assists in a full season. The steal here was Perkins, who piled up 22 win shares in eight seasons in Boston. Using baseball-reference.com’s research, we know the 20th pick should bring 20.6 career win shares (if you really want the nitty-gritty math on this type of analysis, it’s broken down here), so Perkins more than earned his slot, even before he left town (he’s been worth 27.8 for his career thus far). But we remember how this ended, on a frustrating night in Denver when Ainge dealt Perkins for Jeff Green when the team was desperately looking for another swingman to take some of Pierce’s minutes.

(Side note, I was at that game in Denver, but didn’t realize Perkins had been dealt until I was in my seat and checking my phone. We were sitting right by the Celtics’ tunnel. I have never seen a team look so demoralized. They had only eight guys in uniform and the unforgettable Chris Johnson (the first one) was called up from the D-League and played nearly 17 minutes despite obviously not knowing a single one of the team’s plays.)

Best case: There wasn’t a lot waiting there by the time Ainge got to draw. David West went 18th, Boris Diaw went 21st and Mo Williams went 47th. A few other guys had some decent seasons (Leandro Barbosa at 28, Josh Howard at 30, Steve Blake at 38), but nobody who would have changed Boston’s fortunes much.

Grade: B


2004
Al Jefferson (15th), Delonte West (24), Tony Allen (25), Justin Reed (40)

Analysis: You don’t have to analyze the numbers much to know this was a great draft. When you have three picks, none in the top half of the draft, and come away with an All-Star and two rotation guys, it’s time to tip your cap. This will go down as Ainge’s best draft, and it’s not even close. Despite later having two top-seven picks, Ainge has never picked a better player than Jefferson, who has piled up 59.7 win shares before hitting 30, putting distance between himself and the 26 win shares expected from the No. 15 pick. Picks in the 24-25 range should bring 16-17 win shares and West (24.5) and Allen (29.0) have both easily surpassed that. Reed didn’t do much in parts of four NBA seasons, and is the start of a string of useless second-round picks Ainge has made.

Best case: Josh Smith went 17th, but as Detroit and Charlotte have learned, you’d rather have Big Al. Kevin Martin at 26th would be an upgrade over West or Allen, but only if you’re looking for efficient offense (who isn’t) and lackluster defense. Anderson Verajao kicked off the second round, but the real kicker here is Trevor Ariza, who was selected three spots after Reed.

Grade: A


2005
Gerald Green (18th), Ryan Gomes (50th), Orien Greene (53rd)

Analysis: Celtics fans will never forget the frustration of Green, whose athleticism was unparalleled (who can forget Kenny Smith screaming “HE BLEW OUT THE CANDLE!! HE BLEW OUT THE CANDLE!!” during the Slam Dunk contest?) and his shot looked pretty, but his inability to grasp the nuances of the game undermined him. It wasn’t until this season in Phoenix, when he averaged 15.8 ppg, that he unearthed that promise. Still, he’s only been worth 10.2 win shares in his seven-year career, and more than 60 percent of that has come since October. He has a shot of exceeding the 26 win shares expected of a No. 18 pick, but when six franchises gave up on you by the time you were 27, it’s hard to laud the pick too much. Ainge did well with his next pick, in fact Gomes is the best second-rounder he has ever drafted. Even just counting his two years in green, he earned more wins (7. than was expected (3.5). He’s closing in on 20 win shares for his career, and had a stretch of four straight seasons averaging double-figure points. Not too shabby for a guy in a throw-away spot. That’s opposed to Greene, who lasted just 48 more games after his rookie season in Boston and wrapped up his career with negative win shares.

Best case: There were a trio of good picks between 21 and 23 (Nate Robinson, Jarrett Jack and Francisco Garcia), but the best guy still on the board was plucked by Isaiah Thomas (who this kind of analysis loves) when he nabbed David Lee at No. 30. Also, not that anyone was going to pick him at No. 18, but it’s worth noting Monta Ellis was 40th, Ersan Ilyasova was 36th and Andray Blatche was 49th. As strong a selection as Gomes was (and a Providence guy, to boot), Marcin Gortat went 57th.

Grade: B.


2006
Randy Foye (7th), traded along with Raef LaFrentz and Dan Dickau for Sebastian Telfair, Theo Ratliff and Leon Powe (49th). Traded the Cavaliers’ 2007 first rounder (acquired for Jiri Welsch) and cash for Rajon Rondo (21st) and Brian Grant.

Analysis: In his first three drafts, Ainge has been a solid student who excelled a third of the time. This time, he hit a home run, but also struck out. While the selection of Foye was Portland’s choice (Boston essentially picked him for the Blazers), Ainge’s haul for a 40-win spot in the draft was anemic. While Telfair was important in the famous Garnett trade, he never lived up to his promise and Ratliff and Powe were hardly a good get for a spot that had brought Nene, Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng and Charlie Villaneuva the previous four seasons. But Ainge made up for all that by acquiring Rondo for a pick that turned into Rudy Fernandez.

Best case: The only players picked after Rondo who can come close to his value are Kyle Lowry (24th) and Paul Millsap (47th), so that was a win. But say Ainge kept the seventh pick, and didn’t trade it for a pu pu platter? Well, there’s still not much left. Rudy Gay went eighth, but while he’s a 20 ppg scorer, he commands the ball, isn’t woefully inefficient and every team he leaves seems to get better in his absence. After that it’s a wasteland. JJ Redick at No. 11 is probably the best player who was left that we haven’t mentioned already.

Grade: A-. If Ainge had used the No. 7 pick on Rondo, it would be an unbridled success, but he has to get knocked down a bit if he could have come out of it with Gay instead of Telfair/Ratliff/Powe.


2007
Jeff Green (5th), traded with Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak for Ray Allen and Glen “Big Baby” Davis (35th). Plus, Gabe Pruitt (32nd).

Analysis: If the Rondo trade was the start of the upswing, this is the deal that turned the franchise around. Without Allen, Garnett doesn’t approve a trade to Boston. But with Allen and Pierce in the fold and a promising point guard in Rondo, he signed off on the deal just a month after this draft, and as they say, the rest was history. Two finals appearances, a championship and four conference championship showings later, Ainge is considered an upper-tier GM. It all started here. It’s quite possible the Celtics would have selected Green fifth if they had kept the pick, considering they were enamored enough to deal for him just three years later. His 23.8 win shares are underwhelming from a slot that should bring 46.6 for a career. It’s possible Green gets there, but his win shares have decreased for four straight seasons and he had the worst true shooting percentage of his career in 2013-14. Meanwhile, Allen put up 43.4 win shares in his five seasons in green, but more importantly gave the franchise a credibility it hadn’t had since 2003, when Pierce and Antoine Walker were shooting the C’s into their second-straight conference semifinals. Pruitt, who scored just 125 points in the NBA, added to Ainge’s legacy of struggling with second rounders.

Best case: If he had held onto the pick and avoided Green, Ainge could have had Joakim Noah (ninth) … and that’s about it. Spencer Hawes (10th), Wilson Chandler (23rd), Aaron Brooks (26th) and Tiago Splitter (28th) are solid players, but none would have been demonstrably better than Green. One of the best players picked after Pruitt was Davis, who Ainge got anyway. Of course every GM wishes they had seen the promise of Marc Gasol (48th), but even Josh McRoberts (37th), Aaron Gray (49th) and Ramon Sessions 56th) would have been better than Pruitt.

Grade: A. No one Ainge could have drafted would have been better than Allen, and it’s not like any of them would have stuck around longer. None of the guys above still play for the team that originally drafted them.


2008
JR Giddens (30th), Semih Erden (60th), traded cash for Bill Walker (47th)

Analysis: It’s tough to be drafting at the end of the first round, but I’m sure even Ainge would like to have this one back. Giddens lasted all of 38 games in the NBA, started just one of them and made just 30 field goals. Meanwhile, Nikola Pekovic (31st), Mario Chalmers (34th), DeAndre Jordan (35th), Omer Asik (36th) and Goran Dragic (45th) went soon after. While Walker had some moments (he averaged nearly 10 ppg in his sophomore season), his knees never held up and he was out of the league by age 24. Erdin never even showed Walker’s glimpses, and was unemployed within two years. All told, Ainge picked three guys who are all out of the league and totaled just 6.4 win shares, while their combined slots should have paid off for 17.6.

Best case: See above. Any of Pekovic (17.7 win shares), Chalmers (25.1), Jordan (30., Asik (13.3) and Dragic (25.1) would have been a significant improvement, and the first four of those guys went in the next seven picks after Giddens.

Grade: F. With three picks Ainge managed the equivalent of the 43rd pick. Yuck.


2009
Lester Hudson (58th). This first round pick was sent to Minnesota in the Garnett deal and netted the Timberwolves Wayne Ellington. Of note, the other pick Boston sent the Wolves in the Garnett deal was a return of Minnesota’s own pick, which it had dealt away in the Szczerbiak-Davis deal.

Analysis: Hudson who? Exactly. Hudson was a 25-year-old rookie out of the University of Tennessee at Martin. Where? Just minutes from Kentucky AND Missouri! Exactly. I was actually surprised when I looked it up and found Hudson lasted three seasons in the NBA, and even averaged 12.7 points during a 13-game stretch with Cleveland in 2011-12. But he scored all of 22 points in 16 game in a Celtics uniform.

Best case: Could have been the immortal Chinemelu Elonu (59th) or Robert Dozier (60th). Wouldn’t have changed anything.

Grade: C. You’re not expected to do anything with the 58th pick, and trading a late first rounder in the Garnett deal was a no-brainer. There has never been a productive NBA player picked 58th. In fact, the only one I even recognized when running through the list was Purdue product Robbie Hummel. This is particularly strange since in the last three years alone, Isaiah Thomas and Robert Sacre have been the 60th pick. And if you think Sacre is a bad 60th pick, look at the list of guys at 58 and 59 and get back to me.


2010
Avery Bradley (19th), Luke Harangody (52nd)

Analysis: We’re now getting into the range where guys haven’t been in the league long enough to make final determinations on their legitimacy. Bradley is a fine example. Coming into the league, everyone knew he was a shut-down defensive guard, but could he provide enough offense to keep him on the court, or was he destined to be a Raja Bell or Tony Allen? This year, particularly in the second half of the season, after returning from injury, Bradley proved he’s a legit two-way NBA 2-guard. He shot 44 percent from the field, 40 percent on 3s and averaged just about 15 ppg on the season, ratcheting things up in the second half by pouring in 16.5 per game on 47 percent 3-point shooting after the All-Star break.  But since he doesn’t contribute in any other categories — he barely averaged seven combined rebounds, assists and steals per game — he was worth only 1.8 wins, bringing his four-year total to 4.1. That’s still a long way from reaching the 21.5 win shares the average 19th pick contributes in his career, but can he get there? Absolutely. Harangody played 28 forgettable games for the Celtics, 42 more for Cleveland and is currently playing in Russia.

Best case: It takes 21 more picks after Bradley to find a guy the Celtics would reasonably swap out for him, and that’s 40th pick Lance Stephenson. Next best guy? Jordan Crawford? Trevor Booker? Greivis Vasquez? Ainge did pretty well here.

Grade: B+. Bradley could push it to an A with a lengthy career, or push it down to a C if he’s never more than a second-rotation guy. If you’re wondering why the plus, it’s because of the previous paragraph.


2011
MarShon Brooks (25), E’Twaun Moore (55th). Traded Brooks to the Nets for JaJuan Johnson (27th) and a second-rounder in the upcoming 2014 draft.

Analysis: Brooks was another Providence guy, but this time he didn’t suit up for Boston until two years later, when he spent a brief 10 games in green. Back when the Nets were terrible, Brooks was a steal, averaging better than 12 ppg in his rookie season. He came out of the gates particularly strong, averaging 15 ppg in the first two months. But he played for three teams this last season (Celtics, Warriors and Lakers) and appears on his way to the D-League. That’s precisely where Johnson already is after playing just 36 games his rookie year, then being traded for Lee, and not finding his way back to the league since. Basically, nothing from a first rounder, and the second rounder they acquired was shipped out as part of a later deal for Kelly Olynyk. Now Moore, on the other hand, is at least a 20-minute per game player for a terrible team in Orlando, averaging 6.3 per game.

Best case: Norris Cole was 28th, Jimmy Butler was 30th, Kyle Singler was 33rd, Chandler Parsons was 38th and even Moore wasn’t the last rotation guy taken: Kings starting point guard Isaiah Thomas was Mr. Irrelevant at 60th. Ainge could have done better here.

Grade: F. While the Celtics got 108 solid games Boston got out of Lee, it was really a sign-and-trade, so the significance of including Johnson and Moore is close to irrelevant (and it also took Sean Williams, Sasha Pavlovic and a 2nd rounder).


2012
Jared Sullinger (21st), Fab Melo (22nd), Kris Joseph (51st).

Analysis: Here’s a microcosm of the folly of drafting. The 21st pick is a guy the team is considering building around. The next guy drafted, another big  man picked by the same GM, going to the same team at the same time, has little going for him so far other than his pretty awesome name. Melo played six games before disappearing from the league. He’s heading the list with Johnson and Gibbens as Ainge’s worst pick, to date. Sullinger, meanwhile, put up a 13 and 8 this year and already has 6.6 win shares (note that’s more than Bradley). He should easily surpass the 19.7 expected of his draft slot. Joseph at least topped Melo, playing in 10 games (career totals: nine points, seven rebounds on 2-of-14 shooting) before finding himself out of the NBA.

Best case: Miles Plumlee (26th), Perry Jones (28th), Draymond Green (35th), Mike Scott (43rd) and Robert Sacre (60th) would all have been better than either Melo or Joseph, but none are better than Sullinger, although Plumlee and Green make it interesting.

Grade: B. Nailed the 21st pick, threw the 22nd pick directly in the filing cabinet for things from corporate.


2013
Kelly Olynyk (16th), Colton Iverson (53rd). Similar to 2003, Ainge actually drafted Lucas Nogueira 16th, then dealt him for Olynyk, the 13th pick, and tossed in a pair of 2014 second rounders. The Celtics bought the Iverson pick from the Pacers.

Analysis: In the early going, this one is looking good. Olynyk averaged about 9 and 5 in 20 minutes a game as a rookie, meaning in 36 minutes he’d go for about 15 and 9. In eight April games he averaged 16.6 and 7.3 a game, and his true shooting percentage rose consistently as the season went on. His 2.9 win shares is just above the 2.35 average per season historically from 13th picks. Iverson never played an NBA game.

Best case: Just do an Internet search for “How bad was 2013 draft” and you’ll quickly realize the Celtics couldn’t have done much better than Olynyk. That said, Gorgui Deng went 21st and has looked good, and Tony Snell at 20th and Tim Hardaway at 24th both have shots at better careers than Olynyk. Then again, Olynyk has already looked better than most of the guys picked ahead of him.

Grade: B. It’s hard to tell on this one, just one year in. It’s hard to imagine this grade being much lower considering the dearth of talent last year, and it could move higher if Olynyk proves a valuable commodity, even possibly a future starter.



Overall: Three A’s, five B’s, a C, a D and an F.

Because his teams have made the playoffs in every year except two, Ainge hasn’t had many high picks (just two in the top 14 in 11 years), so he hasn’t had a chance at many franchise players. Drafting in the mid-to-late first round he’s been solid: Olynyk 13th, Jefferson 15th, Green 18th, Bradley 19th, Rondo 21st, Perkins 20th, Sullinger 21st, West 24th, Allen 25th is a good run. After that, it’s dicey. Ainge has made 14 picks at No. 30 or later, and he’s found three guys still in the NBA (Gomes, Glen Davis and Moore) and no stars. While the second round is always thin, compare that to the Spurs, who in a span of 14 second rounders from 1999-2009 found Manu Ginobili, Luis Scola, Ian Mahinmi, Goran Dragic and DeJuan Blair (they also took Tony Parker, John Salmons, Leandro Barbosa, Beno Udrih, Tiago Splitter and George Hill between the 26th and 28th picks in that span, which only further proves what we all know). The lesson, as it always seems to be, is try and do what the Spurs do.




bob
MY NOTE:  He gives Ainge an F because he didn't pull a rabbit out of his hat with the last pick of the 1st round and two 2nd rounders?  I don't think that's fair.  How many guys picked 30 and down are in the league for more than a year or two?  He gives a C for the 58th pick being Hudson?  58th?  And he gave an A- because Danny got Rondo at #21 prices instead of using a #7 on him but picked up the pieces for the KG deal?  Who is to say that Gay, instead of Telfair/Gomes/etal would have been enough to swing the KG deal?  Bill Walker got us Nate Robinson, from NYK, who was part of the Perk-Green deal.  If Green's departure to Minny nets us Kevin Love, how is that an F for the draft that got us Walker?  He's analyzing a GM but he's not thinking like one.  Danny's a chess grandmaster and this guy is looking at his picks like the game is checkers.


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Good examples the fact that evaluation of draft picks must include ripple effects that could continue until the drafted player is out of the league. Moreover, much of the ability of picks to succeed depends on the composition, systems, other talent, and chemistry of teams that drafted them. Evaluating picks simply based on their own performances may be interesting; but it's superficial.

Sam

how good a GM Ainge is has been gone over many times in the past few years or so, so I won't rehash it.

I will just point out if Ainge didn't swing the Garnett deal, he'd be considered Poor.

to me his draft picks have been mediocre over all and his trades have been worst more often than not.

IMO he is over rated due to the KG deal and the title that followed.

that's as it should be , perhaps a championship is a championship no doubt.

but when I look at his total body of work as GM here, I am not impressed nor inspired.

I realize I am in the minority and IF Ainge re-builds this team into a contender before he leaves or retires he will have proved me wrong.

I hope he does.

kdp

Name the GM's that you feel have done better over the same time frame? Given the same restrictions in salary cap ect?

beat

kdp59 wrote:how good a GM Ainge is has been gone over many times in the past few years or so, so I won't rehash it.

I will just point out if Ainge didn't swing the Garnett deal, he'd be considered Poor.

to me his draft picks have been mediocre over all and his trades have been worst more often than not.

IMO he is over rated due to the KG deal and the title that followed.

that's as it should be , perhaps a championship is a championship no doubt.

but when I look at his total body of work as GM here, I am not impressed nor inspired.

I realize I am in the minority and IF Ainge re-builds this team into a contender before he leaves or retires he will have proved me wrong.

I hope he does.

I'm not impressed with Ainge either, didn't know he passed on Jordan and Asik in the same year for Giddens, that is idiotic.

kdp,

The Garnet deal wasn't just one deal.  It involved all the trade chips that Danny very skillfully stockpiled, just as the more recent KG/Pierce/Terry deal can't be fairly evaluated until the implications for the future are crystal clear.

Al Jefferson
Ryan Gomes
Kevin Garnett
Ray Allen
Kendrick Perkins
Rajon Rondo
Jeff Green
Randy Foye (who was traded away)
Delonte West
Tony Allen
Leon Powe
Glen Davis
Brandon Bass
Eddie House, James Posey, P.J. Brown (just had to list them together)
Sam Cassell
Avery Bradley
Kelly Olynyk
Jared Sullinger

And I intentionally omitted a few guys who were felt to be good acquisitions when acquired but didn't work out, which wasn't Danny's fault: The O'Neal "brothers," Courtney Lee, Jason Terry.  (Remember when Celtics fans were crowing about what a coup Danny had pulled off to get both Terry and Lee with virtually no cap money and not a lot of available talent to offer?)

A plethora of the drafting slots with which Danny has been confronted has been mediocre at the very best.  In fact, when one averages the draft slots Ainge has been picking with (regardless of which round), the average comes out to 32—in other words, the equivalent of the first pick in the second round.  I believe the fact that he has produced names like the above through the draft either or indirectly (via trade) is an excellent track record.

When he took the job, Danny said he felt it would take five years to win a championship.  That's precisely what happened.

Now, just one year after the team declined, he has amassed a whole lot of assets with which there's a decent chance (not a guarantee but a decent chance) that he could catapult the team forward to the point where we won't have to wait five years for the next championship.

Anyone can use hindsight to carp about overlooking players or drafting misfits.  Of course, Danny's not perfect.  Neither was Babe Ruth.  But the Babe had a pretty good batting average, and Danny's is arguably better.  

Sam

Rondo, 21
Bradley, 19
Powe (2nd round)
Davis (2nd round)
Sully, 21 (EVERY GM from, say, 8 to 20, passed on him)
Olynyk, 13 (so far so good)

Jordan was the #35 pick in the draft.  That means that EVERY GM passed on him at least once.  The Clippers took Eric Gordon with their #7 pick.  They didn't take Jordan with that or even trade down to a lower pick in the first round and take Jordan with that pick either.  Doing it again would anybody take Eric Gordon over DeAndre Jordan?

Here's an excerpt from Jordan's Wikipedia page:

Prior to the draft, draftexpress.com, a third party NBA draft website, listed Jordan's strengths and weaknesses. A few strengths include "incredible physical specimen", "defensive potential", "incredible upside", and "freakish athlete". Some weaknesses include "not productive", "poor fundamentals", "mediocre footwork", and "high bust potential".[8] The website also projected him to be picked at No. 16 by the Philadelphia 76ers.[9] Other mock drafts had him projected to be picked at No. 10 by the New Jersey Nets or at No. 11 by the Indiana Pacers due to his attractive ability to run the floor.[3] ESPN's Chad Ford had him going to the Memphis Grizzlies at pick No. 28 in the first round.

So, while he was projected as a first round pick pre-draft, he was hardly invisible and unknown, NOBODY picked him in the first round.  NOBODY.  Second guessing Danny on this means also second guessing EVERY GM in the league.

Asik was a 2nd rounder, picked #36 behind Jordan.  Once again, EVERY GM passed on him.  He was drafted in 2008 but didn't play in the NBA until 2010.  He played in Turkey for 2 more years after being drafted (one of the earlier "draft and stashes").  Credit to Chicago for trading Portland for his rights (and does that make Portland's GM a screw up too?) and just being patient, but it's not like Asik was the clear and obvious choice to help an NBA team in the near future and anybody who didn't see that is a screw up.

Pekovic was a 2nd rounder that year too.  He played for another two years in Europe after being drafted too.  So was Goran Dragic, going #45.

In 2008 we had a draft day trade for Ray Allen.  We had Perk already.  I don't know how confident Danny was he was going to land KG, the stumbling block might have been that he knew that KG didn't want to come to Boston if it was just going to be him and Pierce and when Danny did the draft day deal for Allen he knew that would unlock that door.  If that's the case, then we didn't need another center.  It also means that Danny wasn't lucky, he was crafty.  He knew the deal he wanted to make and knew what he needed to make it happen (get Ray Allen or another All-Star to break down KG's objections).  Looking at our current situation and saying "gee, I wish we had taken those centers back when we didn't need a center" doesn't make sense, not unless you think Danny had already decided back in June of 2008 to move Perk and just waited four years to do it.

Ray Allen trade; Delonte West and Wally + #5 pick (Jeff Green) for Ray Allen.  
My Grade on this trade?  A

KG for Big Al, a bunch of spare parts and some draft picks.
My Grade on this trade?  A-freaking +

Rajon Rondo for a future late 1st round?
My Grade on this trade?  A-freaking +

Brandon Bass for Glen Davis?
My Grade on this trade?  A solid B.  Bass is much more solid than Davis, who has imploded.  Bass just won the Red Auerbach Award, given to the player who most embodies what it means to be a Celtic.  Davis embodied what it means to be a loose cannon.

Leandro Barbosa and Jason Collins for Jordan Crawford?
My Grade on this trade?  Initially, a B.  Barbosa was done with an ACL and Collins was a spare part.  My grade now is an incomplete, since we have to see what happens with Joel Anthony.

Leon Powe for cash
My Grade on this trade?  B+.  Leon was a key rotation player on a championship team.  Danny traded Denver for his rights.  He was the 49th pick.

Glen "Big Baby" Davis as part of the Ray Allen trade?
My Grade on this trade?  B, if for no other reason than he turned into Brandon Bass.  He was the 35th pick.

Not every trade works out well.  Some trades take longer to reveal their true value and not all draftees who appear to be busts necessarily are.  I mean, who would have thought that Gerald Green and Sebastian Telfair would be integral pieces to #17?  Not every free agent signing turns out well (e.g. Steve Nash to Lakers, Josh Smith to Pistons, Elton Brand to Sixers).

Not every draft pick turns out well.  Do the names "Anthony Bennett" and " Royce White" mean anything to you?  Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was #2.  Austin Rivers was #10.  Tristan Thompson was #4.  Bismack Biyombo was #7 (he might have gotten a bump up because he has such a cool name.  Still, 7 is WAY too high for him).  Jimmer Fredette was taken #10, right before Klay Thompson.  Jonny Flynn ahead of Steph Curry.  They were all lottery picks, fer Pete's Sake, and they are not panning out for their teams (obviously I'm not including Klay Thompson, I was using him as an example of how the draft is a crap shoot.  Klay Thompson is working out great for GSW).  Rodrigue Beaubois ahead of Taj Gibson.  Mistakes, BIG mistakes and I will guarantee you that one can find examples like these every single draft year without exception.  Every.  Single.  One.

Sam Presti of OKC has done a very good job of drafting.  He also had some very, very good draft picks to use since Seattle/OKC sucked for so many consecutive years.  Taking Durant #2 and Westbrook #4 doesn't require genius or Auerbachian insight.  Taking Ibaka #24 did.  Was Steven Adams at #12 a better pick than Kelly Olynyk at #13?  Kelly got more votes for All-Rookie 2nd team than Adams and Kelly started off rough and had an ankle injury that set him back.


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I would take Adams over KO anyday, ones a legit 5, KO is a tweener at best that really can't defend either position.

cowens/oldschool wrote:I would take Adams over KO anyday, ones a legit 5, KO is a tweener at best that really can't defend either position.

Cow,


I take it you don't buy the "Dirk 2.0" talk but you do buy Adams being "Perk 2.0"?


bob


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I know the players Ainge has drafted and traded for since he's been in charge, I've been a Celtic fan since the 1970's

like I said I am not going to get in a listing of them, but you all know that I can list just as many LOUSY picks or trades by "trader Danny"..or have we forgotten that nick-name he had (and it wasn't a good one, for a reason).

ANY GM that would trade away Walker (good move) than trade to get him back (what??)..is just moving pieces...that alone means KG and the title that he brought, just brings Ainge up to average in my book....LOL.



I hope he pulls another KG deal out of his hat and gets us back to contender status, before he leaves. I will be happy to concede that he is one of the best GM's the Celtics have had then.

until I see it...meh!

Kdp

You call him fair or mediocre so he's in the middle some where. So who are 10 GM's that are sooooo much better?

I'll ask again.

Name the ones that are better in your opinion.

beat

kdp59 wrote:I know the players Ainge has drafted and traded for since he's been in charge, I've been a Celtic fan since the 1970's

like I said I am not going to get in a listing of them, but you all know that I can list just as many LOUSY picks or trades by "trader Danny"..or have we forgotten that  nick-name he had (and it wasn't a good one, for a reason).

ANY GM that would trade away Walker (good move) than trade to get him back (what??)..is just moving pieces...that alone means KG and the title that he brought, just brings Ainge up to average  in my book....LOL.



I hope he pulls another KG deal out of his hat and gets us back to contender status, before he leaves. I will be happy to concede that he is one of the best GM's the Celtics have had then.

until I see it...meh!

kdp,

Here's an article from ESPN when the 'Toine Sequel happened.



http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=1998923


Walker returns to Celtics in shocker
Updated: February 25, 2005, 9:13 AM ET
ESPN.com news services


Antoine Walker is coming back to Boston after the Celtics traded Gary Payton, Tom Gugliotta and Michael Stewart and a first-round draft pick to the Hawks.

Atlanta is working on a buyout that would clear Payton to shop his services in search of a new team, ESPN The Magazine's Ric Bucher is repotring. One of the potential options Payton is considering, according to Bucher, is a return to the Celtics.

"We think the addition of Antoine Walker brings needed presence under the boards and a proven winner back to Boston," owner Wyc Grousbeck said. "We are making a playoff push and are focused on becoming a better, bigger team down the stretch."

Walker spent seven years with the Celtics from 1996-2003, helping them reach the Eastern Conference finals in 2001-02. But basketball boss Danny Ainge decided after taking over the team during the '03 postseason that it would be better off without its strongest all-around player and its strongest personality.

On Thursday, Ainge changed his mind.

"I think Antoine improves our team right now, and it doesn't jeopardize our future," Ainge said. "We've been in discussions with Atlanta for about a month. They were looking at taking some of my pieces for the future. Today the price came right and the risk came low."


Antoine Walker
Forward
Atlanta Hawks
Profile
2004-2005 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
53 20.4 9.4 3.7 .415 .534

Everyone involved in the trade has a contract that expires after this season, including Walker's deal that is paying him $14.6 million. Ainge said discussions of an extension would wait until the summer and were not a part of the trade.

Nine days before the 2003 season opener, Ainge traded Walker along with guard Tony Delk to the Dallas Mavericks for center Raef LaFrentz, guard Jiri Welsch and a first-round draft pick. Welsch was traded to the Cavaliers on Thursday for a 2007 first-round draft pick.

The move reunites Walker with Paul Pierce, a duo that took Boston to the 2002 Eastern Conference finals and gave the franchise its best years since the Big Three era of Larry Bird, Kevin McHale and Robert Parish -- along with Ainge -- won the last two of a record 16 NBA titles.

Ainge said he spoke to Walker on Thursday and any bad feelings are in the past. Walker is trying to get to Salt Lake City in time for Friday night's game, Ainge said.

"I think Antoine's ego was hurt a little bit. He's a prideful guy, but I think he knows that it wasn't personal," Ainge said. "I told him it was a lot more pleasant calling him this time. It's never fun making that (other) call.

"But, to be honest, I don't care what he thinks of me. I'm just glad he's excited to come to Boston."

As a TV analyst before he took over the Celtics, Ainge made no secret of his distaste for Walker's game. When Walker was traded, Ainge commented less on his play than on his influence on the locker room, saying the player "had a grasp on the franchise."

"He's been the best player here for quite a while. He's been a vocal leader in the locker room," Ainge said at the time. "Now we're going in a different direction."

Walker leads Atlanta with 20.4 points, 9.4 rebounds and 40.2 minutes per game. In his career, Walker is averaging 20 points and 8.7 rebounds.

Payton, who reluctantly came to the Celtics in a summer trade from the Lakers, reportedly was in talks with the Celtics about a contract extension. Payton is eligible to become a free agent after this season.

Payton, in his 15th season in the NBA, has started all 54 games this season for the Celtics averaging 32.8 minutes a game. He is averaging 12.1 points and 6.1 assists this season, below his career averages of 17.7 and 7.2.

At 36, Payton was seen as a possible mentor for 23-year-old Marcus Banks. But with the trade of Payton and Welsch, the Celtics will now give Banks a chance to learn on the court.

As part of the trade, Atlanta cut disgruntled point guard Kenny Anderson and forward Chris Crawford, who has missed the entire season with a knee injury.




bob
MY NOTE:  Here's 'Toine's page at basketball-reference.com.  Look at his numbers in that return year.  Look at his /36mpg numbers.  You'll see they are comparable to before.  http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/walkean02.html

Also notice, in this article, that Danny picked up a 1st round pick from Dallas in the trade that sent Walker there and that one of the players picked up from Dallas was later traded to Cleveland for a first round pick.  That means that, when you let the dust settle a bit, the net result was Tony Delk, Googs and Michael Stewart for Raef LaFrentz and two first round picks (we gained one on the Dallas trade, gained another on the Welsch to Cleveland trade and gave one up to Atlanta).  Walker and Payton comings-and-goings were washes.  I'd trade Delk, Googs and Stewart for two firsts all day everyday.  I liked Googs, for the most part, but he was shooting 30% that year and 67% from the line and Walker WAS out-rebounding him that year.

And yes, sometimes Danny does move around pieces.  That's because his trading partners will have different needs at different times, as they themselves trade some of their pieces, filling some needs but creating others in the process.  That's true with us too.  30 teams are 30 moving targets and, if you want someone they have, you have to position yourself to have what they want.  Danny wanted first round picks, just like he did last summer.

If Danny brings Pierce back for a year at the vet's minimum, or even at the mid-level exemption, is that him being stupid or selling high and buying back low?

The 2007 first round pick Danny got from Cleveland for Jiri Welsch, which he was able to do because he traded 'Toine to Dallas?  It went to Phoenix for the rights to Rajon Rondo.  Phoenix used that pick, #24, and took Rudy Fernandez.  So, if you will, swap out one of those two first round picks we ended up with after Danny was through "moving around pieces" and put a name on it, Rajon Rondo.  No Walker to Dallas trade, no Jiri Welsch.  No Jiri Welsch, no Rajon Rondo.  

The 2004 first round pick Danny got from Dallas in the 'Toine trade turned out to be Delonte West.  No Delonte West, maybe no Ray Allen.  No Ray Allen and definitely no Kevin Garnett.  

How do those trades, and Danny's drafting, look now?


.

bobheckler wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:I would take Adams over KO anyday, ones a legit 5, KO is a tweener at best that really can't defend either position.

Cow,


I take it you don't buy the "Dirk 2.0" talk but you do buy Adams being "Perk 2.0"?


bob


.

Adams can be better than Perk, theres very few Dirks, guy has more total points than Pierce, if Kelly has half the game of Dirk we'll be very blessed.

Overall... Danny passes. There is a championship to show for his efforts. But he has made a quite a few poor drafting choices.

If people say Danny deserves credit for what did turn out well, then shouldn't that also mean he deserves some blame for things that didn't? It's only fair.



KJ

I’ve always considered Red Auerbach to be the best judge of basketball talent of all-time.  Even if there’s some disagreement with that sweeping statement, one has to admit that he was extremely good at it—not even in the same stratosphere with the word “average.”

So I went through every year when Red drafted for the Celtics.  I stopped at 1997 because things were getting a little fuzzy as to who was actually doing the drafting after that.

My tally totaled 48 seasons, and each one is summarized below.  I listed Red’s first pick, in what draft position it was selected, and the names of any future all-stars he bypassed.  I also placed an asterisk In front of each selection who I think made a reasonably solid contribution.  If anything, I erred in the direction of giving guys the benefit of the doubt.

Red selected a reasonably solid contributor in 24 of the 48 drafts, or exactly 50%.  In 20 of the 24 drafts (or 83%) in which he did not pick a reasonably solid contributor, he passed on at least future all-star.  In those 20 years, he bypassed a total of 54 future all-stars (or an average of 2.7 future all-stars per draft).

I’d be the last one to criticize Red, because he’s the personnel gold standard in my book.  But the fact is that he was arguably wrong 50% of the time and, in five of every six drafts comprising that 50%, he failed to select an available future all-star.  I understand all about extenuating circumstances.  For example, he might have been drafting for need, not for the best player available.  Or he might have had such a disadvantageous draft position that all the good players were taken when he drafted.

But Danny Ainge has faced the same extenuating circumstances, and yet he gets blasted for virtually every pick that doesn’t work out.  And, throughout much of his career, Red was aided by a fairly high draft slot in most years because there were only eight or nine teams in the league.  In fact, his average first pick was in the 12th slot.  (And that includes one year when his first selection was #53.)  Danny has had nothing remotely approaching that kind of average positional advantage.

I hope these perspectives illustrate how extremely difficult it is to handicap a draft, even for the most experienced and generally successful basketball people.  For example, how about Red’s picking Mel Counts when Willis Reed and Paul Silas were still on the board?  Or skipping over Artis Gilmore in order to draft the immortal Clarence Glover?  Who the heck was Ollie Johnson, and why wasn’t one of the Van Arsdale twins selected instead?  Bennie (and the Jets) Swain hardly compensated for missing out on Hal Greer and Wide Wayne Embry.  Paul Westphal had some productive years for the Celts and also for the Suns—but more productive than Julius Irving?  I think not.

If anyone’s wondering what my source is, it’s my own calculations based on data provided by Basketball Reference.  Anyone’s welcome to check my computations.  It took me only six hours, so just pack a couple of picnic meals and wade right into the data.

Sam

Year/Celts #1 pick/slot/Future all-stars bypassed by Red

‘50 Charlie Share-1 (passed on Bob Cousy, George Yardley, Larry Foust, Bill Sharman)
’51 Ernie Barrett-7 (passed on Don Sunderlage)
’52 Bob Stauffer-6 (passed on Clyde Lovellette)
’53 * Frank Ramsey-5 (passed on Kenny Sears)
’54 * Togo Palazzi-5 (passed on Red Kerr, Richie Guerin, Dick Garmaker, Larry Costello)
’55 * Jim Loscutoff-3 (passed on Jack Twyman)
’56 * Tom Heinsohn (Terr.), Bill Russell (3-trade) K.C. Jones-9; passed on Elgin Baylor, Willie Naulls
’57 * Sam Jones-8 (passed on Woody Sauldsbury)
’58  Ben Swain-7 (passed on Hal Greer, Wayne Embry, Guy Rodgers, Don Ohl, Adrian Smith)
’59 John Richter-6 (passed on Rudy LaRusso)
’60 * Tom Sanders-8 (passed on no future all-stars)
’61 Gary Phillips-9 (passed on Bill Bridges, Don Kojis)
’62 * John Havlicek-7 (passed on Dave Debusshere, Terry Dischinger, Jerry Lucas, Chet Walker)
’63 Bill Green-8 (passed on Gus Johnson, Jim King)
’64 * Mel Counts-7 (passed on Willis Reed, Paul Silas, Jerry Sloan)
’65 Ollie Johnson-8 (passed on Jon McGlocklin, Flynn Robinson, Dick and Tom Van Arsdale)
’66 * Jim Barnett-8 (passed on Archie Clark, John Block)
’67 Mal Graham-11 (passed on Bob Rule)
’68 * Don Chaney-12 (passed on no future all-stars)
’69 * JoJo White-9 (passed on Butch Beard, Bob Dandridge, Norm Van Lier, Steve Mix
’70 * Dave Cowens-4 (passed on Tiny Archibald, Dan Issel, John Johnson, Sam Lacey, Calvin Murphy, Geoff Petrie, Rudy Tomjanovich, Randy Smith)
’71 Clarence Glover-10 (passed on Sidney Wicks and Curtis Rowe (thank god), Artis Gilmore, Spencer Haywood, Austin Carr, Randy Smith)
’72 * Paul Westphal-10 (passed on Julius Irving, Jim Price, Don Buse)
’73 Steve Downing-17 (passed on George McGinnis, Larry Kenon
’74 Glen McDonald-17 (passed on Truck Robinson, Billy Knight, Scott Wedman, Campy Russell, Phil Smith
’75 Tom Boswell-17 (passed on World B. Free, Dan Roundfield, Gus Williams
’76 Norm Cook-16 (passed on Alex English, Dennis Johnson, Lonnie Shelton
’77 • Cedric Maxwell-12 (passed on Ricky Green, Eddie Johnson, Norm Nixon
’78 * Larry Bird-6 (passed on Maurice Cheeks, Mike Mitchell, Reggie Theus
’79 Wayne Kreklow-53 (passed on Mark Eaton, James Donaldson, Bill Lame Beer
’80 * Kevin McHale-3 (passed on Jeff Ruland, Kiki Vandeweghe, Andrew Toney
’81 Charles Bradley-23 (passed on no future all-stars)
’82 Darren Tillis-23 (passed on no future all-stars)
’83 Greg Kite-21 (passed on no future all-stars)
’84 Michael Young-24 (passed on no future all-stars)
’85 Sam Vincent-20 (passed on Michael Adams, A.C. Green, Terry Porter
’86 * Len Bias-2 (passed on Kevin Duckworth, Jeff Hornacek, Mark Price, Dennis Rodman
’87 * Reggie Lewis-22 (passed on no future all-stars)
’88 *  Brian Shaw-24 (passed on Anthony Mason)
’89 Michael Smith-13 (passed on Dana Barros, B.J. Armstrong, Shawn Kemp, Cliff Robinson
’90 * Dee Brown-19 (passed on Cedric Ceballos, Antonio Davis, Jayson Williams
’91 * Rick Fox-24 (passed on no future all-stars
’92 Jon Barry-21 (passed on Latrell Sprewell
’93 Acie Earl-19 (passed on Sam Cassell, Nick Van Excel
’94 Eric Montross-9 (passed on Eddie Jones)
’95 * Eric Williams-14 (passed on Michael Finley, Andrew McDyess, Theo Ratliff
’96 * Antoine Walker-6 (passed on Kobe Bryant, Zabonis Ilgauskas, Steve Nash, Jermaine O’Neal, Peja Stojakovic
’97 * Chauncey Billups-3 (passed on Tracy McGrady)

k_j_88 wrote:Overall... Danny passes. There is a championship to show for his efforts. But he has made a quite a few poor drafting choices.

If people say Danny deserves credit for what did turn out well, then shouldn't that also mean he deserves some blame for things that didn't? It's only fair.



KJ

Name a GM that hasn't? And how many during his time have fabricated a championship and put their team in a position to win others?

beat

beat thank McHale, he wanted that for this franchise as much as us.

cowens/oldschool wrote:beat thank McHale, he wanted that for this franchise as much as us.

Cow,

I have a friend who is a GSW fan and a friend who is a Laker fan who also claim it was favoritism by McHale.  I don't buy the conspiracy line, since you have to remember that McHale was just a GM and the owner had to approve it.  If you don't think the owners talk and can find out for themselves why Mitch Kupchak or Chris Mullin wouldn't sweeten the deal for a team's most valuable asset, then we just disagree.  As I remember it, the teams that were in the hunt for KG in 2007 were the Lakers, GSW and the Celtics.

GSW's offer was paltry.  They offered Andres Biedrins as a centerpiece.  Biedrins wasn't, and still isn't, Al Jefferson.  Not even remotely close.

The Lakers?

http://www.boston.com/sports/basketball/celtics/extras/celtics_blog/2011/09/kevin_garnett_y.html?camp=pm


Excerpt, from the article, quoting the Dan Patrick Show, 9/1/2011:

Garnett touched on two other interesting if unrelated topics in his 11-minute appearance with Patrick. The first was the possibility of him joining the Lakers as opposed to the Celtics before the 2007 season. Garnett made it clear he absolutely wanted out of Minnesota, but he said turmoil in Los Angeles prevented him from playing there.

"I was pretty close to be honest," said Garnett. "What disturbed me about the whole Lakers situation was Kobe and Phil at the time. They were at each other pretty bad, and it was a new situation I didn't want to get into ... It was my choice, yeah. There was a lot going on and I didn't want to be a part of it."


Danny had to put together a package that was appealing to the Minny front office, but KG had to sign off on it too, it would appear, and he wanted us (or, at least, disqualified LA).

How about Ray Allen?  Was that a gift to Danny from Sam Presti too?  

There's an old saying that goes "luck is the residue of design".  Danny stockpiled assets in players and draft picks (read my post above about where the draft picks that got us Delonte West (who went to Seattle in the Ray Allen trade) and Rajon Rondo (which we got from Dallas in Danny's trade of 'Toine).  He built his war chest from scratch, incrementally, over years.  There were too many, with too many clubs, to be gifts or simply fool's luck, they were the residue of design. One coincidence? Maybe. A half dozen, all within 5 years? Unlikely.

People who want to run down Danny (or not blame their front office's failure to amass enough high trade value assets) see conspiracy or a professional like McHale going all soft and weepy over his old team (this is a guy who just lost his daughter and he still limped along the sidelines, coaching).  Others see a collection of asset building trades, over the course of 5 years, that consummated in a blockbuster trade.

Alex KennedyVerified account
‏@AlexKennedyNBA
Larry Bird on Danny Ainge's moves: "I trust Danny Ainge. The only time I don't trust him is with the ball in his hands with 3 seconds left."



bob



.

Sam I took from this even more that McHale would in no way let KG go to LA. You can say whatever you want, McHale bleeds green, hes one of us.


sorry meant to address this to bob, my bad

Cow,

1. I have no idea what you're saying. By using the word "this" without telling what you mean by it, the sentence is meaningless. Are you talking about my post? Are you talking about Bob's post?

2. "McHale bleeds green" is one of those amorphous, generalized phrases that some people are fond of using when they don't want to be specific. Exactly what is "bleeds green" supposed to mean? Exactly what are supposed to be the implications if he has fond memories of the Celtics just like so many who have played for Boston? And, most of all, what proof do you offer of whatever it is you're trying to claim?

3. Whatever is your intent, exactly why am I supposed to care? I don't recall discussing McHale recently; and I certainly have no interest in discussing what happened many years ago any more than I have an interest in discussing the Perk trade ad nauseum.

I'm not trying to be a hardass, and I'm sure you're earnest in what you're trying to say. I just don't get it—especially what it has to do with me. Probably I'm just slow.

Sam

Sam, well done with the avatar.

Thanks, Bob. That picture, taken at the American Cemetery above Omaha Beach, means a lot to me.

How are you, how's the job situation, how's the dog, and how are you liking your reacquaintance with the Boston area? Also, are you in touch with Brandon?

Sam

Sorry Sam, that last post was meant for bob

sam wrote:Thanks, Bob.  That picture, taken at the American Cemetery above Omaha Beach, means a lot to me.

How are you, how's the job situation, how's the dog, and how are you liking your reacquaintance with the Boston area?  Also, are you in touch with Brandon?

Sam

Sam it has been a bit of a challenge after getting laid off (a mutual decision) five months after returning to the Boston area. I'm finding that the way we administered 401ks for most of my many years experience was different and unique and employers are looking for a skill set I don't quite have. So I'm trying to reinvent myself at this point. Huuummmmm, perhaps working for the Celtics in group sales? Now there is a call I have to make.

Scout is doing well, though she misses Brandon, his family and their dog. She was with them almost every day while I was at work. Now we have plenty of human friends but haven't found her any dog friends, which is her fault as she can be quite feisty towards other dogs..... She is great with people thankfully ( well except for Beat!). We have visited Brandon a couple of times and he is doing well. He is in 7th grade and playing AAU ball so his game should continue to improve. I am a member of the local American Legion and recently Dana Barros was speaking at our monthly evening event. We have a small raffle each month and after it was drawn (breakfast at a local place) Dana said heck lets have a second raffle and he would donate two tickets for a Celtics game. I was the lucky winner so am hoping to bring Brandon to his first Celtics game if logistically I can get him here for it.

Being back in Newton is great. We are living in a neighborhood known as "The Lake" and I group up on the fringe of it. It is neat to be walking down the street, at the gym, or anywhere and run into people I know from many moons ago. Frequently we stop and look at each other and say hey I know you from somewhere...... though of course the waistlines and hairlines have changed a little bit. My landlord downstairs is your typical traditional Italian woman and when I moved in she said she would feed me. Little did I know she meant 365 days a year....... For a guy who does not like to shop or cook it is as good as it gets, and she feeds Scout also.

Hopefully soon I'll have some good news on the employment front, in the meantime I'm keeping my head up. Thank you for asking.

That's okay, Cow. As long as you write the correct name on the checks.

Sam