If Still Available @ 6, Should Danny pick Embiid?

I voted no. This stress fracture in the navicular bone scares me. Boston needs to use the no. 6 pick either as a part of a deal to get a proven player or to draft a solid player with low risk to add to their young core. It would be a huge gamble to take Embiid.

Yes, we should draft Embiid and let him get healthy, perhaps returning to play in March.

Hi,
I'm not an MD so I go with my gut - no.
Celtics got lucky (so far) recently with "damaged goods" Sully. Let's not tempt it again. Also, when they say fractured foot Yao Ming comes to mind....

AK

Navicular Stress Fracture
By Jonathan Cluett, M.D.


Definition: Navicular stress fractures are a common foot injury in athletes. Navicular stress fractures tend to occur in athletes who sport requires explosive movements and sudden changes in direction--commonly injured athletes include high jumpers, sprinters, basketball, and soccer players.
Athletes typically have vague midfoot pain just beyond the ankle. The pain typically hurts most during and just after athletic activity and resolves with a period of rest. In more severe cases, patients may even have pain with more routine activities such as walking. There is usually no history of an acute injury, rather most athletes describe a worsening, nagging pain. Unfortunately, this often leads to a delay in diagnosis, and while it usually causes no long-term problems, it does delay the start of treatment.

Diagnosis of a navicular stress fracture is suspected when athletes have pain directly over the navicular bone. There may be a small degree of swelling in the area. Sometimes the navicular stress fracture is seen on x-ray, but often requires a bone scan to be seen. CT scans are also helpful to better identify the fracture pattern and to evaluate for healing. Treatment of a navicular stress fracture is with a short-leg cast and crutches. Usually six weeks in a cast is sufficient, but some patients may require longer. In a small group of patients, the navicular stress fracture will not heal and may require surgery. Conservative treatment, however, is most often effective.

SI Now: Joel Embiid unlikely to be No. 1 pick

Source: SI

On Thursday's SI Now, SI.com "The Point Forward" writer Ben Golliver discusses Joel Embiid's injury and how it impacts his draft stock.

The news that Kansas center Joel Embiid has a stress fracture in the navicular bone in his right foot will have a significant impact on next week's NBA draft. Embiid, the projected No. 1 pick in SI.com's latest mock draft, is expected to slip several spots, maybe more.

"With that type of injury," said a Western Conference executive, "I wouldn't take him in the top-ten."

The injury information was supplied to reporters by Embiid's agent, Arn Tellem, who added that Embiid will undergo surgery to repair the injury on Friday.

The navicular bone, which is located at the top of the foot, above the arch, is a critical bone for anything that requires power, running or jumping. And it is a familiar one in the NBA.

Yao Ming suffered a stress fracture in the bone in 2008 and again in 2009, and it was the primary cause for Yao's forced retirement in 2011. Bill Walton battled fractures of the navicular bone that robbed him of all but 14 games between 1978 and 1982 and ultimately forced him into retirement. Zydrunas Ilgauskas dealt with a navicular fracture early in his career but went on to finish with nine healthy seasons.

More recently, Grizzlies guard Quincy Pondexter underwent surgery to repair a tarsal navicular stress fracture in his right foot last December and missed the rest of the season.

Based on the information, it's impossible to predict a league-wide reaction to Embiid's injury. There are too many variables: The success of the surgery, the estimated time for recovery, the projected long term prognosis. To date, Embiid's only reported injury has been his back, an injury that caused him to miss the Big 12 tournament and the NCAA tournament. Tellem told ESPN that the foot injury occurred within the last few days.



According to Dr. Kenneth Hunt, an Assistant Professor of Orthopedics at Stanford, a stress fracture in a navicular bone is "a classic overuse injury" found often in basketball and volleyball players.

"The most common treatment is to make small incisions to place one or two screws across the fracture to stabilize it," Hunt said. "If the fracture is displaced, a bone graft can accelerate healing."

Hunt noted that despite the high profile examples of athletes who have battled recurrences of a navicular fracture, "the healing rates of this fracture are high."
"The majority of these injuries will heal completely," Hunt said. "Getting to it early is a good prognostic sign. In his case, it appears it was treated early and appropriately. In the cases I have seen, the athletes that have recurrent fractures have high arches and stiff feet. They can develop large spurs in the adjacent bones. But again, to the majority of athletes this will heal and not be an issue in the future."

As for recovery time, Hunt said that players generally resume basketball activities in 4-6 months and are ready to play in nine months, though in some cases it can be closer to a year.

Just the possibility that Embiid could miss parts of next season could be enough to drive several teams at the top away, multiple executives told SI.com.
Take Cleveland. Multiple sources familiar with the Cavaliers thinking believed that Cleveland GM David Griffin was leaning toward using the top pick on Embiid. But Cleveland, which has missed the postseason every year since 2010 and has an impatient owner in Dan Gilbert, may not be willing to roll the dice on Embiid now.
In Milwaukee with the second overall pick, Bucks GM John Hammond and his staff were retained by new owners Wes Edens and Marc Lasry but it's hard to see Hammond taking such a big risk with a pick that Milwaukee desperately needs to pan out. The Bucks got a steal last year in impressive rookie forward Giannis Antetokounmpo and a dynamic wing player like Andrew Wiggins could look even more appealing now, and would give the team a strong young perimeter tandem.

MAHONEY: Teams facing pivotal offseasons

Things get interesting at No. 3 with Philadelphia. The Sixers have a gaping hole at center and a dearth of talent, well ... everywhere. Philadelphia has been operating under the assumption Embiid would be gone by the time it picked, according to a source. A healthy Embiid paired with 2013 lottery pick Nerlens Noel, the athletic power forward who missed all of last season with a knee injury, would form a frightening defensive frontcourt. But Sixers GM Sam Hinkie was an executive in Houston during Yao's run with the Rockets. He's keenly aware of the devastating effects of this injury.

Again, it's difficult to to determine just how far Embiid will fall until after the surgery, when teams will take a long look at his medicals. Either way though, Embiid stands to lose some substantial money. Per the NBA's rookie scale, the top overall pick will make $4.6 million next season. The third pick will make $3.7 million. The sixth will earn $2.7 million. It's a tough injury for a promising young player.

112288

Trade the pick, Danny.

Sam

I think I'd take Embiid. He's the best opportunity for a dominant center using the 6th pick.

Hey Kyle,

Where are you living now?  Approximately...not looking for a street address.

Don't I recall when you were a freshman in college back in the BDC days?  I was always impressed by your logic, both then and now.  Glad you've joined us.

Sam

I voted no based on what Worcester said in another thread about the injury.

I have no faith that any NBA team (Celtics included) will allow him to skip his rookie year, picked that high. I see them instead pushing for a "quicker" healing and therefore more chance of long term issues.

now IF he were to fall to #17..........I jump all over him there, as a pick we can sit out for the entire year to heal properly.

If he drops to 6, 5 GMs have decided not to take a chance. I think I'd pass as well; no sense in acquiring an Oden, Bynum or Ming, although I'm no doctor. I do think the 6th pick could yield a very good player and have a gut feeling Embiid is star-crossed. I'd definitely prefer Vonleh, but minus some kind of deal, he's out of reach. I've warmed to Smart, still like Gordon, would take a chance on Exum. Hawk

I voted no.

Make that no stinkin' way.

If 5 execs pass on him there is something seriously wrong.

It's starting to pile up.  First the back injury, then reports surface that he had back issues in high school.  Now the foot injury and surgery, which, according to W, who unlike most people actually knows about these things, is not normally the treatment at this point.

This alters the strategy significantly for the lottery teams.  In our case we now essentially end up with what was the 7th pick.  I would consider packaging 6, maybe 17, or one of our future high picks and at least one of Sully/Bass/Kelly/Bradley (sign-and-trade?) and see if Orlando or Utah bites.  I'm not sure how salaries work out in these deals but there must be some possibilies with what we have.  I then look at Vonleh or Smart.  Several power forwards around, so if we keep 17 and trade a future pick I don't fear putting Sully on the table.  There is still a chance his NBA career isn't going to be real long anyway.

Extra incentive for taking Smart; if he does turn out to be the point guard many think he is (although I still like him at 2-guard), he or Rondo become trade or sign-and-trade material in a package for the center we all lust after as soon as season's end.

There's some of your your fireworks we've heard are coming on draft day.

Bob,

It's not that much of a crap shoot that if a projected #1 falls to #6, we should think anything other than he's damaged goods. Jordan also didn't fall that far in the draft due to injuries, it was other factors.

Personally, I'm still not sold that Sully will last all that long given back and persistent weight issues.  I could see his conditioning habits alone being problematic enough that by the time we build a contender in a few years he's incapable of making the contributions he does now.

Paying a premium and not building with younger players only got us one championship.  I'm glad we got it, but I want to do it the right way this time and build something that lasts longer term.  The draft simply has to play a role in that process IMHO.

Regards

NYCelt,

Only one ring yes but a damn close shot at two others.

If we don't swing a trade and the pick is ours to use. Roll the dice and pick him. We still have plenty of first round picks moving forward and if he does pan out to be "close" to what he can be (even if he needs a year to heal fully) we could be pretty darn good.

There are so many things that can/will happen between now and then who the heck knows. Sure DA is exploring every nook and cranny, I can only imagine what he wants to happen and what will happen.

Perhaps he'll check here for advise..................then his head will really explode !!

beat

Is your not so little guy playing summer ball? (baseball)

The draft is a crap shoot. That is the one thing we can say with certainty in this whole situation.

Worcester, would you draft Embiid at no. 6 if he's already had surgery instead of taking the recovery approach you recommend?

As for Walton and Oden, they actually weren't healthy when they were drafted. Walton already had sore knees, which turned out to be a side effect of his foot issues, which were congenital. I recently read The Breaks of the Game by David Halberstam, and it details how Walton's extremely high arches were at the root of his foot and knee issues and were already evident when he came out of college.

As for Oden, he supposedly had a "pristine" MRIs on his knees prior to the draft, but his knee started hurting while on vacation, swelled when he started working out, and he had microfracture surgery on the knee and missed his entire rookie year. Based on how it played out, the issue was there when he was drafted, but Portland missed it.

Given that so many big guys have had this issue and that it has been debilitating for many of them, I said no, but I was surprised when Worcester said yes, so I could be convinced to reconsider.

I really like what I've seen of Embiid as a player. He's long, athletic, seems to have good instincts, and if he can stay healthy, I think he can be an very good player and exactly what the Celtics need at center. The back issue didn't bother me that much, but man, this foot issue is not good.

Agree with you 100% Bob about not being overly enamored of the draft.  A great judge of talent like Red Auerbach missed on about half of his first picks (many of them in the top 8 slots of the draft), often passing up future all-stars in the process.  It's not even reliable enough to be called a crap shoot.  Give me the tried and true.

Sam

The gambler in me says "yes." The pragmatist in me says "no."

I voted no, and the reason is because it's a high-risk situation whereas there are other players that will be available at #6 that can help the Celtics.

Embiid doesn't look like he can take years and years of 82 game seasons plus playoffs if he's having durability problems at this point in his career. What good is top of the line talent if we might never get to see it?



KJ

I have no idea, hope we can get him checked out by our medical team, if he has good arches.....oh I don't know?

a year goes by fast, if we get him, hes got to take the year off, its up to our medical staff. if his back is better than Sullys and his feet and arches are better than Walton and Yao Ming, maybe?

sam wrote:Hey Kyle,

Where are you living now?  Approximately...not looking for a street address.

Don't I recall when you were a freshman in college back in the BDC days?  I was always impressed by your logic, both then and now.  Glad you've joined us.

Sam

Hi Sam,

I'm living up in Andover currently, but I'm working down in Needham. It's a lovely commute. Celtics forums have been a long time. I'm thinking it was at the end of freshman year, either spring or summer of 2006, so that's pre-KG era, 8 years. I'm glad to be here with you and everyone else. It's certainly an interesting time to be a Cs fan.

Thanks,
Kyle

I don't really see the 6th pick getting us a center in this draft but I would not be unhappy if Embiid fell and was our pick. Ainge would have a much better idea of his medicals than I would. If he's ok with the pick, I would be. Ainge taking Embiid would be our best chance of a franchise center. Vonleh could be the pick, but I doubt he ends up being a franchise center. If he's a franchise player, it's from the PF position. If we use the 17th to trade for Asik, that's a temporary solution. Same would be a sign and trade or signing of Gortat. Nurkic, Capela, etc, all are long shots at 17 or later

The speculation is over!

Celtics draft Embiid:

http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics/blakelys-nba-mock-draft-100-cs-take-chance-embiid?p=ya5nbcs&ocid=yahoo