The Morning After

Ok, so let's stop for a second and try to wrap our minds around it all.  What happened AND what didn't happen.

Well, for one thing, Kevin Love didn't get traded.   Anywhere.  Does that mean he still might come here?  Personally I think the Afflalo-to-Denver trade presaged that deal's final arithmetic, but it does substantiate Wyc's point about how "trade season has barely started".  The fat lady stood up (Dallas-NY), straightened her dress (Asik to NOP) and cleared her throat (Afflalo to Denver) but she hasn't started singing yet.  Did Wyc shoot from the lip when he promised "fireworks"?  Yeah, he probably should have waited before he started over-hyping, and he can be a bit of a used car salesman at time but, in the words of Yogi Berra, "it ain't over 'til it's over".

For those of us who wanted Danny to trade the picks for veterans (Sam and me) it didn't work out.  For those of us who wanted Danny to go big with Vonleh, it didn't work out.  For those of us who wanted Gordon as a replacement for Green it didn't work out (no fault of Danny's for that.  I was shocked when he went 4th).  It seems like only NYCelt was a happy camper when Danny took Smart.  But what does that pick mean?  I'll tell you what I think it means, I think it means nothing.  The shoes are still dropping and we don't know which or whose.  Is Rondo gone because Smart will run the point or is Bradley gone because him and Smart are the same size, Smart has a bigger wingspan and is just as tenacious a defender and won't chew up cap space like Bradley will?  Maybe it's Phil or Bayless who is gone.  We don't know.  We.  Just.  Don't.

What we do know is that we have someone who could replace both Bradley AND Pressey.  What we know is that there's a new gunner in town.  Today.  Probably tomorrow too.  That's what we know.

Let's keep our powder dry for 15 more days.  Over that 2 week period we will see free agent signings happen (which will include free agent sign-and-trades), the Orlando Summer League start and finish and the $10.3M Traded Player Exception will expire and the tectonic plates start to settle a bit into what is a more likely sem-final position.  Let's not forget, though, that in 2007 Kevin Garnett wasn't traded until 7/31, LONG after what we're talking about here.  We're impatient fans.  Danny's not impatient, not when we're talking about a year or two.  5+ years?  Yeah, then we'd see a serious edge on him, but 1-2 years for a rebuild?  He considers that almost too easy.

In the meanwhile, let's study up on our newest MIGs (Men In Green), at least until the day after tomorrow.  And let's keep in mind how we responded initially to Danny drafting slow, earthbound, medically red-flagged Jared Sullinger in 2012 and moving up to pick slow, earthbound 7'0" "stretch 4" Kelly Olynyk in 2013.  Maybe we're not as smaht as we think we are...


Mahcus Smaht

6'3 1/4" w/shoes, 227#, 6/9 1/4" wingspan (Bradley is 6'3", 6'7" wingspan)


-Marcus Smart and Dante Exum who did not compete outside of the high school level this season, are widely considered the top-2 point guards available in the 2014 NBA Draft. In studying Smart's situational stats, he has a number of attributes that should help ease his transition to the next level offensively, but that his offensive game remains a work in progress.

Looking at the bigger picture, Smart's 18.7 possessions per-game and 14.5% turnover rate both rank average-to-above average among what is a very productive group of uniquely skilled lead guards. His field goal percentage ranked below average overall at just 42%, but his overall .941 points per-possession was almost exactly average thanks to how frequently he got to the line. Drawing free throws on an absurd 31.3% of his transition possessions and 21.2% of his half court possessions, Smart ranks second in this group in overall free throw rate, behind only New Mexico's Kendall Williams, who had a far lower usage rate.

Smart's role for Oklahoma State had him running the pick and roll much less frequently than his peers. Only 21.2% of his offensive possessions were used on the pick and roll and only 14.5% of the possessions derived from his own usage and his passes came from dishes out of the pick and roll, both of which rank well below average. The second least effective shooter in this group making 36% of his shots after dribbling off a ball screen, Smart's overall efficiency on the pick and roll actually ranks above average since he drew free throws on more than a quarter of his possessions in the two-man game, illustrating how big a part of his game his athleticism and physicality play in his success offensively at this stage in his career.

Since he isn't running the pick and roll as frequently as his peers, Smart's profile has some other quirks. He saw more than 5% of his possessions in the post, which is as much as some small forwards. On top of that, he used 1.7 possessions per-game receiving the ball after using off-ball screens, which ranks among the highest marks in this group and the highest among prospects from teams that don't play at very slow paces. Smart is not your traditional off-screen scorer, as he prefers to try to burn the defense by getting to the rim when his defender is trailing, but he did knock down a number of jump shots working off the ball as well.

Smart's somewhat unique offensive role is not surprising when you look at his shooting numbers. He made a below average 28.4% of his jump shots in the half court while finishing at a superb 57.3%-clip at the rim. Shooting 30.3% from the perimeter off the catch and 28.8% off the dribble, Smart has plenty of room to grow as a jump-shooter. Making 45.7% of his open spot-up jump shots, but attempting more and making just 20.4% of his contested spot-up jump shots, there's reason to believe he could improve his numbers with less ambitious shot selection and room for optimism that he'll continue to make strides in this area thanks to his tremendous work ethic.


Smaht's prsss conference.  Listen to what he says about being drafted by a team that already has a good starting point guard, as opposed to being drafted by a team where he could start right away.






Here's a read about Smaht.  If you're wondering about his toughness, this should put those questions to rest.  Between him, Rondo and Bradley, this is one feisty, take-no-prisoners backcourt we have.  He burns with anger when something happens he doesn't like.  Sometimes that anger burns out of control, like when he went into the stands, but for the most part he channels it very well and that's why he's the #6 pick.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/big12/2013/01/22/mens-college-basketball-oklahoma-state-marcus-smart-profile/1850729/


Marcus Smart might have the biggest shoulders I've ever seen on a basketball player not named Karl Malone...






Danny's asked if he intends to continue to move forward with Rondo or do a complete rebuild.  Danny gives a pretty simple response.  He also addresses the "two point guards" issue.  "Two point guards"?  Bye, bye Phil.  Danny is also asked about whether he sees this as another year of "development".




Here's his DX scouting report.  If you didn't watch it when I posted it during the workout process because you wanted to wait to see what actually happened, now's the time to catch up.  This kid is a bull.  NOT afraid of contact.  How often do you see PGs posting up in the paint?






James Young


Danny's presser says he see Young as a SF in the NBA.  Interesting.  Players usually go down in position from college to pros.  College centers, like Vonleh, become PFs, etc.


6'6 3/4" w/shoes, 215#, 7'0" wingspan, 5.1% body fat.





I suspect Kelly, and perhaps Sully, will play in Orlando summer league.  It will be interesting to see how these guys mesh.


Go Celtics!



bob



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sam wrote:So somebody put my mind to rest (or at least out of its misery).  Maybe NYCelt can do it.

If Smart's such a good PG that he's already being anointed as the heir apparent to Rondo, why isn't there a single syllable in this report about his ball distribution or floor general qualities.  I'm not saying statistics are the be all and end all of being a PG, but shouldn't they get at least a passing mention for the Celtics' alleged PG of the future?

Sam

sam,


I'm not a college sports fan, as you know, but here's some stuff from basketball-reference.com (college).  I don't think it is fair to compare a kid fresh out of college to a pro with 8 years experience, so these are college vs college stats, which will hopefully shed some light on where they are/were at comparable points in their development.  Hopefully NYCelt and/or kdp or whomever else who are college hoop junkies can put more meat on the bones based upon their eyeball observations.  I think I'm done watching college film for a while.

Here's some stats from basketball-reference (college), /40mpg (NOT /36mpg like they do with NBA):  Career

Rajon Rondo

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/rajon-rondo-1.html

Gms---Mins----FG----FGA----FG%----2P----2PA----2P%---3P---3PA---3P%---FT---FTA---FT%---TRB---AST---STL---BLK---TOV---PF----PTS
68----1908----5.2---10.6---.493----4.6-----8.5----.544---0.6---2.1---.283---2.7---4.7---.577---6.4----6.0----3.3----0.3---N/A---N/A---13.7



Marcus Smart

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/marcus-smart-1.html

Gms---Mins----FG----FGA----FG%----2P----2PA----2P%---3P---3PA---3P%---FT---FTA---FT%---TRB---AST---STL---BLK---TOV---PF----PTS
64-----2120---5.9----14.3---.413----4.3----8.8----.488---1.6---5.6---.295---6.6---8.8---.751----7.1---5.4----3.5---0.8----3.6---3.5----20.1



bob




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sam wrote:Okay, I'm a a bit relieved concerning Smart's floor general ability, and I also like his 75% free throw average (although it dipped by something like 5 perentage points from his year one to his year two.

While it may not be fair to compare a newbie's abilities with those of a multi-year veteran, isn't that exactly the point, Bob?  It is what it is, what what it would be is a kid straight out of college replacing a veteran all-star.  So, since this isn't an intellectual foray but rather an exercise in reality, I think it's eminently fair to compare the reality of a having a raw kid, rather than a seasoned pro, running a team that struggled offensively last season.

I may be more concerned than many in what happens to this team during the next season or two.  That's not to be confused with championship expectations.  I just want them to be able to enjoy consistent improvement in the development promise, and I believe the floor general is the single most important element in offensive improvement because he so greatly affects the success of everyone on the floor.

Sam

sam,

I see your point (no pun intended).  You're asking "if we trade Rondo before we get to really see Smart in action, is that good for this team now, who cares about college?".  Well, I'm certainly not one to hang my hat on college play as being a good indicator of future performance, but suppose we try to see if we can cobble together some scenarios that aren't totally out-to-lunch.

Let's start with Cleveland's previous starting veteran point guard vs their new one.  Not a great comparison, admittedly there's a slight difference in talent levels, just a tinch, but it's a start.

Mo Williams, his last full year as starting point guard for Cleveland, /36mpg, at age 27 and 7 years experience:

Gms--FG---FGA---FG%---3PM---3PA--3P%---2PM---2PA---2P%---FTM---FTA---FT%---ORB---DRB---TRB---AST--STL---BLK---TOV---PF---PTS
69---5.8---13.0--.442----2.4----5.7--.429---3.3----7.4---.452----2.7----3.0---.894----0.4---2.7----3.1---5.6---1.1----0.3---2.6----2.6--16.7

Kyrie Irving, in his first year, /36mpg, 19 years old.

Gms--FG---FGA---FG%---3PM---3PA--3P%---2PM---2PA---2P%---FTM---FTA---FT%---ORB---DRB---TRB---AST--STL---BLK---TOV---PF---PTS
51---8.1---17.3--.469----1.7----4.2--.399---6.4----13.0--.491----4.0----4.5---.872----1.0---3.4----4.4---6.4---1.2----0.5----3.7---2.5--21.8

Notice that Irving only played in 51 games that year.  That's because Mo Williams started early on, they saw how things were going with Irving and traded Williams.

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Jrue Holiday, career in Philly, /36mpg.  He was a #17 pick and a 2013 All-Star.

FG---FGA---FG%---3PM---3PA--3P%---2PM---2PA---2P%---FTM---FTA---FT%---ORB---DRB---TRB---AST--STL---BLK---TOV---PF---PTS
5.9--13.4---.437---1.1----2.9--.374----4.8----10.5--.455---1.9 ----2.4---.781----1.0----2.9---3.9----6.3---1.6---0.4----2.9---2.4--14.7


Michael Carter Williams, ROY, #11 pick last year, /36mpg.

FG---FGA---FG%---3PM---3PA--3P%---2PM---2PA---2P%---FTM---FTA---FT%---ORB---DRB---TRB---AST--STL---BLK---TOV---PF---PTS
6.4---15.7--.405---0.8----3.1--.264----5.5----12.6--.440---3.8----5.5---.703----1.5----5.0---6.5----6.6---1.9---0.6----3.7---3.2---17.4


So, Philly traded an All-Star point guard for Nerlen Noels (an intimidator, to use your term) and rolled the dice with their new rookie PG.


______________________________________________________________________________


Dan Dickau, /36mpg, age 26.

FG---FGA---FG%---3PM---3PA--3P%---2PM---2PA---2P%---FTM---FTA---FT%---ORB---DRB---TRB---AST--STL---BLK---TOV---PF---PTS
5.3--13.0--.408----1.5----4.2--.347----3.8----8.8---.437---3.3----3.9---.836----0.6----2.5---3.1----6.0---1.3---0.1----2.5---3.5---15.3


Chris Paul, #4 pick, /36mpg, age 20.
FG---FGA---FG%---3PM---3PA--3P%---2PM---2PA---2P%---FTM---FTA---FT%---ORB---DRB---TRB---AST--STL---BLK---TOV---PF---PTS
5.2--12.1---.430---0.6----2.3--.282----4.6----9.9--.464----5.1----6.0---.847----0.8----4.3---5.1----7.8---2.2----0.1---2.3---2.8---16.1

I can't think of any other veteran starting point guards who were gone after another point guard was picked where one could make even a half-assed comparison.  Earl Watson being replaced by Russell Westbrook?  Duh.  Who wouldn't do that?  Note that every point guard being traded were all in their prime, no over-the-hillers.


My takeaway from all this is that you can bring in a new point guard who is highly regarded and drafted and not necessarily lose much by trading your existing point guard.  Now, I realize that Rondo isn't just any point guard, but Jrue Holliday was an All-Star and he got traded when Philly got Michael Carter-Williams and Williams did great last year.  In fact, Philly wasn't doing too badly until Hinkie realized they might actually win some games and gutted the team so they couldn't.  It all boils down to what/who Danny gets for Rondo.  I'm not preferring that route, but there is some history that show that high lottery pick point guards can step in quickly, especially if they're surrounded by talent like Rondo was in his sophomore year.

steve3344 wrote:Jay Bilas was interviewed by Michael Kay on the Yes Network on Friday and Kay asked him who was the best player drafted after the top three.

Bilas said "Marcus Smart."  And added, "He's not a great shooter but he does everything else."

So there you go.  Bilas is a very respected hoops analyst as most people know.

steve,

This is from ESPN.

Before the draft, ESPN Insider's Kevin Pelton wrote how Marcus Smart ranked tops in this year's draft class in projected WARP (wins above replacement player). His blurb on Smart:
Several factors propelled Smart to the top of the WARP projections. He is young for a sophomore, just 10 days older than Joel Embiid. Smart's projected steal rate is tops for any projected first-round pick, which is important because steal rate has been a strong indicator of NBA success. He is also an excellent rebounder and has been surprisingly good playing against star point guards. Players similar to Smart tend to perform better in the NBA as the professional floor typically is more open, allowing them to create off the dribble.



bob

Here's a link defining the WARP projections he cites.  http://www.sonicscentral.com/warp.html


http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=224






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