How Did The Mock Drafts Do?

I've wondered just how good the pros are versus an interested amateur.  Here are the final mock drafts for several reputable mock drafters AND OUR OWN KDP59!  Plus or minus 2 or so isn't a big deal (Embiid, for example, could have slid to 6 or even 7 due to injury.  Saric was expected to drop all the way to #17 because of his new contract.  Maybe a team picks for need vs best available).




Pick #-----Actual Pick----DX----------mynbadraft.com----------nbadraft.net----------kdp59

1----------Wiggins------Wiggins------Wiggins------------------Wiggins---------------Wiggins
2----------Parker--------Parker-------Parker-------------------Parker----------------Parker
3----------Embiid--------Embiid-------Exum--------------------Embiid----------------Embiid
4----------Gordon-------Exum--------Embiid-------------------Exum-----------------Exum
5----------Exum---------Vonleh-------Vonleh------------------Vonleh---------------Vonleh
6----------Smart--------Smart--------Smart-------------------Smart----------------Gordon
7----------Randle--------Randle-------Randle-------------------Randle---------------Randle
8----------Stauskas------Payton------McDermott---------------Gordon---------------Smart
9----------Vonleh--------McDermott---Stauskas----------------Payton---------------Stauskas
10---------Payton--------Gordon------Gordon-------------------Harris----------------McDermott Traded to Orlando for Saric and 2 future draft picks
11---------McDermott----Stauskas-----Nurkic-------------------Nurkic----------------Harris   Traded to Chicago
12---------Saric----------Nurkic--------Payton------------------Hood-----------------Hood Traded to Philadelphia for Payton
13---------Lavine---------Lavine--------Harris-------------------Stauskas-------------Lavine
14---------Warren--------Harris---------Young------------------McDermott------------Saric
15---------Payne---------Warren--------Warren-----------------Saric-----------------Young
16---------Nurkic---------Hood----------Hood-------------------Lavine----------------Payton
17---------Young, James--Saric----------Saric-------------------Anderson-------------Nurkic
18---------Ennis----------Payne---------Lavine------------------Payne----------------Warren
19---------Harris----------Napier---------Payne------------------Napier----------------Payne
20---------Caboclo--------Capela--------Napier-------------------Ennis----------------Ennis
21---------McGarry--------Ennis---------Anderson----------------Warren---------------Capela
22---------Adams----------Adams--------Hairston-----------------Young---------------Anderson
23---------Hood-----------Hairston-------Ennis--------------------Adams---------------Adams
24---------Napier----------Young, James--McGarry-----------------Robinson III----------Early
25---------Capela----------Anderson------Stokes------------------Clarkson-------------Hairston
26---------Hairston---------Stokes--------Clarkson-----------------Early----------------Napier
27---------Bogdanovich-----Grant---------Capela-------------------Wilcox--------------Clarkson
28---------Wilcox-----------Clarkson-------McDaniels---------------Grant---------------Grant
29---------Huestas---------Inglis-----------Adams------------------Capela--------------McDaniels
30---------Anderson--------Bogdanovich----Bogdanovich------------Bogdanovich---------Tavares



When there are picks out of left field (e.g. Caboclo and Huestas.  Who?) that ripples through the rest of the draft, both real and mock, and makes accuracy that much more difficult from then on.

So, how'd they do?  Well, if you cut them slack for 2 spots (+/-2 up or down) then here's the scorecard:

Draftexpress---------------- 11 right
mynbadraft.com------------- 10 right
nbadraft.net----------------- 8 right
kdp59 -----------------------16 right

kdp crushed the pros, absolutely crushed them.  When you consider that everybody got 1-4 and 6 & 7 right, and look at how they did from 8 and down, here's the scorecard.  Remember, as you go down the draft the talent is not so obvious and teams will not necessarily take the obvious pick because many of the obvious picks are already gone so they'll draft-and-stash or take a flyer on someone.

Draftexpress-----------------5 right
mynbadraft.com-------------4 right
nbadraft.net-----------------2 right
kdp59-----------------------10 right

So, with the choices becoming more iffy kdp batted 10-22, 45%.  He got both our picks correct.  In fact, he had Young being picked sooner.  Man oh man is that good in an increasingly unstable crap shoot.

GREAT job, kdp.  So, how does it feel knowing the bullseye is on your back for next year?  LOL.



bob


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Congratulations, kdp.

Sam

Just curious Bob. You said Kdp got both our picks correct but in your post for his mock draft he has us drafting Gordon at 6 and Nurkic at 17, when we picked Smart and Young. And his was the only one you posted that DIDN'T have us taking Smart. Did you copy his mock draft wrong?

Steve, pretty sure if you read Bob's explanation he gave a 2 pick swing (either way) for each pick meaning if Smart was picked anywhere from 4-8 it was counted as correct....not just for KDP but the other "experts" as well.

beat

beat wrote:Steve, pretty sure if you read Bob's explanation he gave a 2 pick swing (either way) for each pick meaning if Smart was picked anywhere from 4-8 it was counted as correct....not just for KDP but the other "experts" as well.

beat

Bingo.


bob


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Here are three pre-draft mocks that had James Young actually going AHEAD of where we picked him (10, 14 and 15):

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/mock-draft

And maybe it's just me but I'm real impressed with mocks that have us taking the EXACT player we took and most of them DID have us taking Smart, like Draft Express, Draftnet and Mark Spears.  Though I'm not convinced yet it was the Smart decision.  When it came time for us to pick I was kind of hoping we'd take Vonleh.  At 6'10"/240 he's still growing, has amazing uspside and I thing he's going to be a star at the big forward position, and, while I like who we have there (don't love 'em tho), I think Sully's a bit too short (and glued to the floor) and Olynyk isn't physical or agile enough.  I was real surprised he slid to 9.  Probably because many believe he's probably a couple years away from really contributing and most organizations want to improve as quickly as possible.  I think he's going to have a terrific career.

Barring another major move (Gortat?) I think we're right back in lotteryville next year.

steve3344 wrote:Here are three pre-draft mocks that had James Young actually going AHEAD of where we picked him (10, 14 and 15):

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/mock-draft

And maybe it's just me but I'm real impressed with mocks that have us taking the EXACT player we took and most of them DID have us taking Smart, like Draft Express, Draftnet and Mark Spears.  Though I'm not convinced yet it was the Smart decision.  When it came time for us to pick I was kind of hoping we'd take Vonleh.  At 6'10"/240 he's still growing, has amazing uspside and I thing he's going to be a star at the big forward position, and, while I like who we have there (don't love 'em tho), I think Sully's a bit too short (and glued to the floor) and Olynyk isn't physical or agile enough.  I was real surprised he slid to 9.  Probably because many believe he's probably a couple years away from really contributing and most organizations want to improve as quickly as possible.  I think he's going to have a terrific career.

Barring another major move (Gortat?) I think we're right back in lotteryville next year.

Steve,

I copied the CBS mock drafts too, but to be honest I didn't want to take the time to align them so they were more readable.

Picking a #6 pick isn't so hard, the best players are more obvious, it's picking middle and lower players that's tough.

I suppose we should be happy that CBS Sports thinks we got a steal with Young at #17.



bob



.

Here's something funny.



Matt Moore CBS        ✔ @MattMooreCBS
Follow
Boston Celics: Marcus Smart: C+: A parachute in case of Rondo trade. Might be a SG who can't hit 3s. But strong as an ox defensively.
5:12 PM - 26 Jun 2014


Matt Moore had us taking Marcus Smart in his own final mock draft, see it on the link provided by Steve.

So, we draft the guy he says we will and then gives his own projected pick a C+.

Maybe I will take the time and plug their mock drafts in and see how well they did vs kdp.  I'll bet he buries them even deeper than the others.



bob


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I'm retired now.

kdp59 wrote:I'm retired now.

Another "One-and-Doner".

My mock prediction is that if the Celtics are in the lottery next year you won't be able to stop yourself.

Well, if this was it you still did well. We'll just have to settle for second best from now on.


bob


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I appreciate the kudos, but I didn't think my final mock was terribly good.

kdp59 wrote:I appreciate the kudos, but I didn't think my final mock was terribly good.

kdp,

If that's what you think then either you're too tough on yourself or you didn't read my analysis very closely. I didn't make any of it up, I just reported it.


bob


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