Draft Lottery Reform

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-lottery-reform-is-coming/




NBA Lottery Reform Is Coming


NBA
JULY 16, 2014
by ZACH LOWE






The NBA submitted an official proposal to reform the lottery this week at competition committee meetings in Las Vegas, pushing aside the Wheel idea in favor of a revised weighting system that shifts each team’s odds of getting the top pick, per several sources who have seen and reviewed the league’s proposal.

The proposal, which dominated the lottery-reform discussion in league meetings this week, is essentially an attempt to squeeze the lottery odds at either extreme toward a more balanced system in which all 14 teams have a relatively similar chance at the no. 1 pick, per sources familiar with the proposal.

Under the current system, the team with the worst record has a 25 percent chance of snagging the no. 1 pick, perhaps the most valuable asset in the entire NBA. The team with the second-worst record has a 19.9 percent chance of winning the no. 1 pick, and the third-worst team enters the lottery with a 15.6 percent chance of moving up to the top slot. The odds decline from there, with the final five teams in the lottery — the teams with the five best records — each having a 1.1 percent or worse chance of moving up to no. 1.

The league’s proposal gives at least the four worst teams the same chance at winning the no. 1 pick: approximately an identical 11 percent shot for each club. The odds decline slowly from there, with the team in the next spot holding a 10 percent chance. The lottery team with the best record will have a 2 percent chance of leaping to the no. 1 pick, up from the the minuscule 0.5 percent chance it has under the current system.

The proposal also calls for the drawing of the first six picks via the Ping-Pong ball lottery, sources say. The current lottery system actually involves the drawing of only the top three selections. The rest of the lottery goes in order of record, from worst to best, after the top-three drawing is over.

The league could implement lottery reform as early as next season, though there are many hurdles to overcome before then. And it’s important to note that the league has kicked around several different proposals with varying weights; the 11 percent figure for the first teams is not universal among those proposals, sources say.

The goal of this initial proposal is obvious: to prevent out-and-out tanking among the league’s very worst teams for the no. 1 pick. Equalizing the odds for the five worst teams, and giving the next few clubs odds very close to that 11 percent chance, goes a long way toward removing the incentive to race toward the bottom. That slice of the reform targets team’s like last season’s Sixers and the 2011-12 Bobcats, both of which rather blatantly constructed rosters designed to be as bad as possible in those particular seasons. The end goal was a 25 percent chance at the top pick. The NBA’s proposal would grant such teams just an 11 percent shot at it, merely a hair better than the chances for mid-rung lottery teams that, in some seasons, are at least within spitting distance of the playoff race after 40 or so games.

By keeping the odds for the very best lottery teams on the low side — just 2 percent — the league is working to avoid building in any incentive for a team chasing the no. 8 spot to tank out of the playoffs. That is the league’s fear about a lottery system that gives all 14 teams an equal shot — that teams with a real chance at a bottom-rung playoff spot would instead ease out of the race with an eye on a top draft pick. And that’s a legitimate concern, since having seven-game series in the first round minimizes the chance of a no. 8 seed pulling off an upset. As I’ve written before, all of these issues are intertwined — lottery odds, the playoff system, the salary cap structure, and hard feelings between big- and small-market teams.

Two early concerns about the league’s proposal have already emerged:

1. The timing of implementation. Teams that have constructed short-term building plans under the current rules will likely oppose any attempt to change those rules midstream. The Wheel proposal, submitted to the league by Mike Zarren, the Celtics’ assistant general manager, called for instituting the Wheel only after all draft picks that have already been traded actually move between the trading partners. Due to the protections on some future first-round picks that have been traded, implementation would have waited at least a half-dozen years. (The Wheel is detailed here.)

2. There are already burbling concerns that a restructured odds system will encourage some late-season tanking among teams all over the lottery. Teams clustered around the middle of the lottery may begin jockeying for a top-five position, or to move up from, say, no. 12 to no. 9.

There is concern that such teams might hold out star players in late-season games, and that we might even see some repeats of the infamous Mark Madsen game, in which the Timberwolves in their 2006 season finale allowed Madsen to jack 3-pointers in an embarrassing attempt to maximize their odds of losing. A loss in that game gave Minnesota a much greater chance of keeping its own pick in the forthcoming draft.

The Wheel proposal is more complex, and it has gained significant support from some powerful people around the league. It took a backseat this week as the competition committee focused more on the league’s favored proposal.

The discussion is still in its early stages, and there are more proposals floating around from team officials. Those ideas could get more air time, and the league could always tweak its own proposal or put forth another. But it’s clear that Adam Silver is serious about tweaking the lottery system, possibly as early as next season. It’s important that the league examine all unintended consequences before instituting a revamped lottery. This is gonna get interesting, fast.




bob



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Any system that results in the Cleveland scenario, three number-one picks in four years, plus recouping a former number one pick, who happens to be the world's best player, needs to be changed. http://regressing.deadspin.com/the-cavs-are-the-first-team-in-over-50-years-to-have-fo-1603769868. Hawk

Whatever system stands the best chance of eliminating the word "tank" (in any form) from the basketball lexicon is fine with me.

Sam

I'd prefer the wheel system but this proposal is probably better than the current situation.

I still prefer all non playoff teams have an equal shot at #1. Why reward failure?

beat

Beat,

I agree with that statement.

It would effectively eliminate any possible "benefits" of "tanking."



KJ

I know it would never happen and would also have plenty of detractors but how about a system where the team with the best record not to make the playoffs have the odds weighted in their favor. The next best record have the next best odds and so on. This should end all the "tanking" and would also make for some competitive games down the stretch for all teams, not just those jockeying for playoff position. It could also conceivably serve the purpose of eliminating the dreaded "mediocrity" curse that half the league is either trapped in or trying to avoid.

WillJR,

Interesting idea.

I would say that the only downside is the have nots will continue to be have nots. Small market teams that don't have a shot at landing whatever free agents they want likely wouldn't have much fortunes without the chance to draft a potential phenom.



KJ

KJ, excellent point. The smaller market/less desirable cities could very well be stuck in a perpetual groundhog day of losing in my scenario. If we could figure out a way to reward effort without penalizing the overmatched the NBA world will beat a path to our door.

willjr wrote:KJ, excellent point. The smaller market/less desirable cities could very well be stuck in a perpetual groundhog day of losing in my scenario. If we could figure out a way to reward effort without penalizing the overmatched the NBA world will beat a path to our door.

Perhaps the NBA just has too many teams. At least that's what I think.

As it is now, the talent is not dispersed evenly. With fewer teams, the league would be more competitive because the pool of talent would be more concentrated.




KJ

beat wrote:I still prefer all non playoff teams have an equal shot at #1. Why reward failure?

beat

This is how bad teams get better, by drafting the best players.
All 3 other major sports leagues reward failure.
They draft in reverse order of where they finished in the standings.

Don't you think each year teams that are borderline making the playoffs might be tempted to just miss the playoffs if they had an equal chance at the #1 pick as do the really bad teams?

My opinion OK

I'm entitled to it and NOT all teams get better because of it

Geesh

beat

I don't know the answer, but don't most professional leagues do just fine leaving it at the worst record gets the first pick?

Maybe it should be left in that simple a form.

tjmakz wrote:

beat wrote:I still prefer all non playoff teams have an equal shot at #1. Why reward failure?

beat

This is how bad teams get better, by drafting the best players.
All 3 other major sports leagues reward failure.
They draft in reverse order of where they finished in the standings.

Don't you think each year teams that are borderline making the playoffs might be tempted to just miss the playoffs if they had an equal chance at the #1 pick as do the really bad teams?

To continue on with my "haves vs have nots", it might be fair to say the fringe playoff teams are also have nots. They clearly don't have the guns to win enough. A high pick could help them in the process of changing their fortunes.


KJ

k_j_88 wrote:

tjmakz wrote:

beat wrote:I still prefer all non playoff teams have an equal shot at #1. Why reward failure?

beat

This is how bad teams get better, by drafting the best players.
All 3 other major sports leagues reward failure.
They draft in reverse order of where they finished in the standings.

Don't you think each year teams that are borderline making the playoffs might be tempted to just miss the playoffs if they had an equal chance at the #1 pick as do the really bad teams?

To continue on with my "haves vs have nots", it might be fair to say the fringe playoff teams are also have nots. They clearly don't have the guns to win enough. A high pick could help them in the process of changing their fortunes.


KJ

Phoenix was a fringe playoff team this year.
They won 48 games but didn't make the playoffs.
I don't want them to have the same chance at the #1 pick as Philly or Milwaukee had.

I think the lottery is a really good system if they have limits on how often you can have top 3 picks.

Sam Hinkie's worst nightmare, a reformed lottery system:


http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/234469/76ers-To-Fight-Proposed-Changes-To-Draft-Lottery-System



76ers To Fight Proposed Changes To Draft Lottery System
Jul 30, 2014 10:15 AM EDT


The Philadelphia 76ers will fight changes to the draft lottery system that the NBA is pushing to implement in time for next season.

Though there are several facets and the proposals haven't been finalized, essentially the goal of commissioner Adam Silver is to balance out the lottery odds so the worst team or teams wouldn't have the highest chances of landing the top pick, sources said.

The 76ers are in a multiseason rebuilding project that is depending on a high pick next season.

The 76ers, however, may have a struggle to gain support from Silver or fellow teams on holding off the changes.

Via Brian Windhorst/ESPN




bob




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a real HARD salary cap along with a much higher Salary MINIMUM for each team would allow you to go to drafting off records only easier.

IMO.

since THAT will never happen in the NBA, they ahve this type of crap to deal with.

wanna stop tanking, require owenr to SPEND on salarys OR go with the wheel.

Since the advent of the ABA, the NBA has been motivated—for one reason or another—to institute a series of runes, economic practices, and an image that has substituted greed for quality as the most pervasive driving force.  They're now reaping the results, as they're constantly under pressure to find increasingly elusive ways to compensate for their sins of the past.

Anyone who doubts that the quality of the game has degenerated dramatically need only conjecture as to why the performance of the Spurs in the recent Finals was so widely hailed as a refreshing revelation.  Anyone who doubts that greed is in runaway mode need only read about the increasing number of decent-but-not-great players who want max contracts.

Fortunately, what keeps a lot of fans involved (I'm one of them) is an inherent love for the game of basketball.  Even if one has to squeeze pleasure out of mediocrity, factors such as the familiar sound of ball on floor and the suspense of a shot in flight persist in bringing current enjoyment and reigniting cherished memories.

Sam

" what keeps a lot of fans involved (I'm one of them) is an inherent love for the game of basketball..."

So true... This weekend I was at my daughter's wedding near Syracuse, 250 people, a big event. For some bizarre reason my daughter-in-law decided it was a good time to have an emotional breakdown right before the ceremony to try to ruin what was otherwise an exceedingly happy event, directing her unwarranted animus at my son, who was quite shaken up by it. Fortunately there was a basketball court behind the church with a ball laying there. Dressed in our tuxes, I took said son out back to shoot some hoops, which did wonders to put a smile back on his face and prevent further escalation, not quite a possible Ray Rice scenario but more than wedding cake could have been thrown.

There have been many times when our family has had struggles, and we've come together by phone from disparate parts - Maine, Ohio, Florida - to watch a Celtics game or we've shared a little pickup game when all in person. In our darkest hours we've always had basketball and Celtics talk around which to coalesce. Pretty remarkable considering that Dr. Naismith, M.D. was not a psychiatrist.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sixers/20140731_New_NBA_lottery_format_would_hit_Sixers_hardest.html



New NBA lottery format would hit Sixers hardest





Sixers general manager Sam Hinkie and head coach Brett Brown. (Yong Kim/Staff Photographer)




POSTED: Thursday, July 31, 2014, 1:08 AM


Several NBA sources have confirmed that the 76ers are against a proposal that would balance out the draft lottery as early as next summer.

General manager Sam Hinkie could not be reached for comment.

League sources said Wednesday afternoon that the Sixers would not get any sympathy from fellow franchises. That's because for the second straight season, the Sixers are expected to field a roster below NBA standards in order to guarantee losses in hopes of a high draft pick.

This tactic, said one Eastern Conference executive, is having "a negative effect on the integrity of the NBA." He believes the proposed new format, which could come to a league vote in the fall, would go a long way in preventing teams from duplicating what the Sixers are doing.


Under the current format, the team with the worst record has a 25 percent chance of receiving the top pick in the draft lottery. The squad with the second-worst record has a 19.9 percent chance, while the third-worst team has a 15.6 chance of getting the No. 1 pick. The odds keep shrinking until the lottery team with the best record has a 0.5 percent chance of moving up to No. 1.
Several aspects of the proposed format have yet to be finalized. But it would balance out the odds so all 14 lottery teams would have a chance to win the top pick.

The proposal would give at least the teams with the four worst records an equal 11 percent chance of winning the top pick. The next team would receive a 10 percent chance. The lottery team with the best record would have a 2 percent chance of finishing first.

The NBA Board of Governors could vote to pass the proposal during its preseason meeting in October. If it passes, the Sixers would not benefit from another season of tanking.

The Sixers believe they are just taking advantage of a system that has been in place, and they're not the first team to do so.

However, a league source said that teams believe the Sixers made a mockery of the rules by fielding a roster full of NBA Development League talent.

Last season, the Sixers ranked next to last in the NBA to the Milwaukee Bucks in overall attendance (15,655) and home attendance (13,869).

The Sixers finished 19-63 two seasons removed from being one win away from reaching the Eastern Conference finals.

There was a 13-game road losing streak. There were the back-to-back road losses to the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors by a combined 88 points. And who can forget the 26-game losing streak that matched the record for consecutive losses by a U.S. pro sports team?

And there were the 28 players on the roster at one time or another. Six of those players were on 10-day contracts. Two others - Danny Granger and Earl Clark - never played a game. The final roster had eight players with at least one stint in the D-League during their careers.

Much of the same is expected for next season.

The Sixers have not made any free-agent acquisitions and are $30 million under the salary cap. They also acquired two first-rounders in center Joel Embiid and forward Dario Saric who might not see the court next season.

Embiid could miss the entire season with a fractured right foot. Saric signed a three-year contract last month to play in the Turkish League. The standout forward is expected to spend at least two years overseas.

The Sixers also have tried to trade power forward Thaddeus Young, arguably their best player.

So although the pieces seem to be in place for another dismal season, the Sixers might not benefit from it come draft night.




bob
MY NOTE:  Hinkie's problem is that he was just TOO obvious about it.  It's one thing to have young players you develop because you're over the salary cap etc, it's a whole other thing to deliberately and obviously put your franchise into a multi-year power dive.  Julius Erving must be spinning like a top in his grave.  I know he's not dead, but this must be killing him by inches.  


.

I still think put all none playoff teams in the SAME basket, all with an equal chance, that will keep the tankers at bay. League continues to reward "bad" management. At least this would be a step in the right direction. And I really don't give a hoot what someone else thinks. When you trade for a future pick with a team you roll the dice on that end of it too.

beat