Breaking Down The Celtics Center Position 2014-2015

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2167579-breaking-down-boston-celtics-center-position-for-2014-15-season



Breaking Down Boston Celtics' Center Position for 2014-15 Season
By Grant Rindner , Featured Columnist Aug 18, 2014




Breaking Down Boston Celtics' Center Position for 2014-15 SeasonMichael Dwyer/Associated Press



There aren’t a lot of positions the Boston Celtics are shored up at; they need more shooting, a long-term option at small forward and a featured scorer.

More than anything, they need to figure out the center spot.

The Celtics are clearly going into the 2014-15 season with a center-by-committee approach, since they lack a starting-caliber option.

That would be more of a concern if the team wasn’t blatantly rebuilding and the options weren’t young players with upside.

Say what you will about Tyler Zeller, Vitor Faverani and Kelly Olynyk, but we can at least assume they have more to show in the NBA than they have thus far.

Still, figuring out a solution to the center conundrum is neither going to be an easy nor quick process. This evaluating will take time.

With that in mind, let’s go player by player and break down how they could impact the Celtics at the center spot this season.




David Liam Kyle/Getty Images


Tyler Zeller


Acquired for basically nothing from the Cleveland Cavaliers, Zeller is the closet thing to a pure center Boston has on its roster.

He has averaged 6.9 points, 4.9 boards and 0.9 assists per contest for his career and proven game when called upon to start.

In 55 starts in 2012-13, he notched 8.3 points, six rebounds and 1.4 assists per night on 43.4 percent shooting. His numbers dipped in 2013-14 with a healthier Anderson Varejao, but he proved a more efficient and judicious player.

As you can see by his shot chart heat map, Zeller does most of his work around the rim, as a 7-footer should.  http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/z/zellety01/shooting/2014/

He’s not much of a post scorer, but Zeller knows where to be and has great touch around the hoop.

Defensively, he struggles with quicker big men but is at least serviceable in most matchups thanks to his height.

According to 82games, he allowed a player efficiency rating of 16.2 to opposing 5s, which was slightly above the league average.  http://www.82games.com/1314/13CLE19.HTM

He doesn’t offer much in the way of rim protection, but he is at least a body who can clog up the lane.

Unfortunately, Zeller is already 24 years old and likely has the least upside of any of the options at center. His ceiling in the league seems to be that of a high-end backup rather than a quality starter.

With that said, he could be the safest option as well. He knows his role, doesn’t ask for too many touches and runs the floor extremely hard.

Expect Zeller to play 24-plus minutes per game and potentially emerge as Boston’s starter by the end of the year.




USA TODAY Sports


Vitor Faverani


The 26-year-old Faverani had a trying rookie year in the league, but the Brazilian big man should be more consistent as a sophomore.

He averaged just 4.4 points and 3.5 rebounds per game in 37 appearances before undergoing knee surgery.

Unfortunately, he has had a pretty turbulent offseason.

There’s a lot to like about Faverani’s game. He can shoot threes, play in the post and even block a few shots. However he’s also a low-efficiency player (43.5 percent from the field) and not reliable enough from the perimeter to function as a stretch-5.

Still, there’s hope for Faverani.

ESPNBoston.com’s Chris Forsberg noted an interesting point:

Boston clearly needed size this season and Faverani's early season glimpses suggest he can help from the center spot. What was most surprising this season was that his defensive numbers were far better than his offense, which was the opposite of how he was advertised when the Celtics signed him last summer.

Faverani certainly did show flashes. He had a 12-point, 18-board, six-block performance against the Milwaukee Bucks.

If he continues to hone his jumper and adjust to the overall NBA game, he has a shot at being a regular rotation player. Nevertheless, he may still end up as a clear third option on the depth chart.

Ultimately, expect Faverani to play pretty sparingly. He isn’t as polished as Olynyk offensively or as dependable in an all-around capacity as Zeller.

He may receive 10 or 12 minutes per night at center, or Brad Stevens might give him a spin at power forward, but—barring injury—don't expect to see a whole lot of Faverani.




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Kelly Olynyk


The likeliest player to start the season opener, Olynyk struggled for much of his rookie year but came on strong in April.

He wound up averaging 8.7 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.6 dimes per game on 46.6 percent shooting overall, but notched 18.8 points, 7.8 boards and 2.4 assists per contest in his final five outings.

His growth over the year was clear, as he became more confident with his outside shot and putting the ball on the deck.

Boston GM Danny Ainge expressed confidence in Olynyk when speaking with reporters, saying, “I think I’ve been really happy with how he’s improved. I think the coaches have done a good job of getting him stronger, a good job of teaching him the game and I think he’s a great player."

Olynyk thrived offensively at the 5, posting a PER of 17.3, according to 82games.  http://www.82games.com/1314/13BOS15.HTM

His heat map shot chart indicates he was a threat both above the break on threes and around the rim.


Credit: Basketball-Reference.com.
Kelly Olynyk's shot chart heat map.


Unfortunately, he also gave up a staggering 24.6 PER against centers.

He’ll need to improve defensively if he wants to lock down the starting position. Given that Jared Sullinger is limited defensively, the C’s need Olynyk to reliably guard the post and protect the paint.

He’s not much of a shot-blocker but has the potential to at least be an effective defender in Stevens’ system.

Olynyk averaged just 20 minutes per game in 2013-14, but that should jump to around 28 in 2014-15, largely at center.

It won’t always be smooth, but Olynyk has the best shot of anyone to become Boston’s center of the future.



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Other Options

Since none of the other options are exactly thrilling, the C’s could opt to use Brandon Bass or Sullinger for spot minutes at the 5.

Both are undersized, but they’re gritty players who can give Boston some interior muscle.

Sully is far and away the Celts’ best rebounder, and Bass is a capable frontcourt defender and jump-shooter.

With that said, Sullinger’s future is likelier at power forward. Bass, on an expiring deal, probably won’t last in green past 2015.

There is also the option of trotting out the decrepit Joel Anthony, although let’s all hope Boston opts against that.



Michael Dwyer/Associated Press


Final Verdict

This is going to be ugly.

Expect Olynyk to begin the season as the starter and Zeller to receive the brunt of the backup minutes.

If Olynyk underperforms or the C’s struggle too much on the defensive end with the Sullinger-Olynyk pairing, they may sub him for Zeller.

Faverani won’t be receiving minutes unless there is an injury to one of the players in front of him on the depth chart.

Boston will likely try to run some smaller lineups with Bass or Sullinger in certain matchups, but both will spend most of their time at the 4.

The Celts have lots of holes on their roster, but the center position might be the most glaring one. The solution isn't on the current roster and will likely come through the draft or free agency.




bob
MY NOTE:  Apparently this author doesn't read this board, or he would have seen our overwhelming opinion (unanimous except for Sam wanting to bring back Jujuan Johnson) that Zeller would start, not Olynyk.  And, of course, he forgot about Joel, the guy with 8 years of NBA center experience, more than the rest of the Celtics roster combined.  I have no idea what Forsberg was talking about Vitor's defense being better than his offense.  He was a surprisingly good shot blocker (2.0/36mpg, compared to former DPOY Tyson Chandler, who hasn't averaged 2.0blks/36mpg for the past 9 years; or D12, who averaged 1.9blk/36mpg last year) in admittedly limited minutes, but still a nice start.  His PnR defense needs work but it appeared to me last year that if you funneled the defender to him, as opposed to expecting him to move out of position to prevent penetration like he has to do with PnR, he did just fine.  I'm trying to get past my gag reflex towards stretch 4s as it is so I sure as HELL hope Faverani doesn't become a stretch 5!  What's next?  Some blogger suggesting that Avery Bradley play the low post so Sully, Faverani and Kelly can all bomb away from 3?  Yuck.  Speaking of Kelly, might Kelly see minutes at 5?  Sure he will, some, but I don't think Brad or Danny want that to be his primary position, so he won't get most of his minutes there.

I'm still sticking with the "Zeller starts" theory until I see evidence that convinces me otherwise.



.

nah Bob, I have been sayin that Kelly gets most of his minutes at center this year (as the roster stands now).

does Zeller start or kelly?

meaningless to me.

I still see in my head Zeller and Sully as low post  bigs with Bass And kelly as high post bigs.

time to forget the center position (as it seems the NBA has now even). we have 4 players who will get mintues at our two power forwards spots this year.


my guess right now on minutes

Sully- 2200
Kelly- 1800
Zeller-1800
Bass- 1800
Fav and Anthony gettting the other 300 minutes or so.

Hi,
What's he talking about "... The Celtics are clearly going into the 2014-15 season with a center-by-committee approach, since they lack a starting-caliber option ..."?
Zeller was good enough to start for Cavs who were not much worse than Celtics (current roster). He showed what he can do at 5 and it's much better than anyone else on the current Celtics roster. So, what committee is he talking about? Well, sure Brad Stevens can and, probably will, experiment with KO, Vitor, etc but, as it stand now, Zeller is the center apparent.
Of course, there's also Rondo who can play this position - I bet he won't shy away from the challenge. Unfortunately, according to a source with 99.786% reliability he, RR, 96.358% traded to LAL for Kobe (Celtics also giving away all picks and Danny Ainge).

AK

I have no idea why Danny would have acquired Zeller unless he was projecting Tyler to be the starting center.  Based mainly on what I've read about him and only partially on personal observation, it seems he has decent center skills and a lifetime center orientation.  Among the others, only Vitor can make the same claims, although I think he's more of a placeholder at center, completely avoiding body contacts (at least in his picks) and being habituated to bombing from outside.

The greatest aid to Kelly in his development would not be for him to play much center on this team.  It would be in playing PF minutes beside a true center.  Of the Kelly/Sully/Vitor trio, Kelly's the only one whose three-pointer I trust, and the three-pointer is part of the arsenals of other power forward (see Love, Kevin).  I also think Kelly's inside game is more effective when he gains momentum slashing from the outside rather than starting his moves from a stationary position underneath.

Obviously Zeller won't be playing 36 or more minutes, and someone else will have to back him up.  I would guess Sully and/orVitor would be more appropriate than Kelly because they both have bulk.  But perhaps Kelly could see some time there against smaller opponent lineups or less bulky centers.

I love Sully's game, and I believe he does almost the best he can, given his personal assets.  The "almost" is in play because I'm not a fan of his shooting threes.  It seems to me that one objective of every player is to make the greatest different it is in his power to make; and Sully's greatest difference lies in his work underneath.

It's entirely possible that the Celtics won't keep both Kelly and Sully long-term because both of them should be playing big minutes and both of them should be playing PF.  Ideally, if there's a decision to be made between them, I assume it would depend largely on who the long-term center is going to be.  Will they need more length or more banging from the PF position?

Sorry, Bob.  I just can't get excited about Anthony.

Sam