Boston Celtics training camp question: With Rajon Rondo, Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley, what will backcourt rotation look like?

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Boston Celtics training camp question: With Rajon Rondo, Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley, what will backcourt rotation look like?



Jay King | mjking@masslive.com By  Jay King | mjking@masslive.com  
on September 04, 2014 at 5:10 PM, updated September 04, 2014 at 5:23 PM




When the Boston Celtics drafted Marcus Smart, backcourt crowding became a possibility. Shortly thereafter, Avery Bradley re-signed for four years, giving the team three guards that might all deserve big minutes. Further bloating the backcourt rotation, the Celtics later acquired Evan Turner and Marcus Thornton.

Guard depth beats the alternative, of course, but questions persist: Where does Smart fit? Can he thrive alongside Rajon Rondo? Who is the Celtics' point guard of the future? How can head coach Brad Stevens divide minutes so Rondo and Bradley get enough time while Smart receives a proper chance to develop? And what use will Stevens find for the other guards with guaranteed contracts, Phil Pressey, Turner (not officially signed yet), Thornton and James Young?

Here are nine (mostly not so bold) predictions:

1. Rondo, if he stays, will play about 37 minutes per game. Why can we be confident it will be 37? Over the last four healthy seasons of his career, he has averaged between 36.6 and 37.4 minutes. Despite recovering from a torn ACL last season, he returned to a similar load by the end of the campaign, playing 36.3 minutes per game over his final 20 outings. So 37 minutes isn't a bad guess. It might be more of a certainty.

2. Bradley will start at shooting guard. Smart could have a great rookie season, but Bradley just makes more sense at the 2-spot, especially if he remains as hot from the outside as he was to end last season. The Celtics need as much 3-point shooting as possible. Bradley drained 39.5 percent from the arc, flashing promising signs that he extended his range and moved on from his love affair with mid-range jumpers. He has worked well with Rondo in the past and should benefit as much as anyone from spending the majority of his minutes alongside an elite creator. (Note: During the writing of this post, I found myself pondering possible starting lineups. I think I like this one: Rondo, Bradley, Jeff Green, Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger. Interestingly, that quintet played just 14 total minutes last season. But it can spread the court for Rondo [and Bradley's backdoor cuts] as much as possible, with an offense that could feature nice ball movement.)

3. Smart will back up both backcourt positions. Especially if Rondo stays and leaves only 11 minutes per game available at the point, Smart will need to adjust to off-the-ball life. He's not an obvious fit with Rondo, but the Celtics are in a perfect position to experiment. Maybe they will unearth a beautiful duo that can break down defenses off the bounce and make life easier for the other three guys on the court. Maybe a lack of spacing will doom the Rondo-Smart combo from Day 1. Likely, the results will land somewhere in the middle. I don't know exactly where, and you probably don't either.

For what it's worth, Stevens thinks the pairing can work. "I see them not only being able to coexist, but being able to complement each other well," he has said. We'll see.

4. If Smart lives up to his reputation and Rondo decides to focus on disrupting foes, the Celtics perimeter defense will be awesome. And that's good, because the interior defense once again projects as gloomy.

5. Phil Pressey will be the third point guard. Barring any trades, he will find himself very short on playing time.

6. James Young will spend some time in the D-League. He needs to develop, and, unless he's readier than expected, the Celtics have enough other guards to push him out of the rotation.

7. Marcus Thornton will play more minutes than Evan Turner. Why? Because Thornton can shoot (in a streaky fashion, but still). Turner has skills with the ball, but the Celtics need perimeter marksmen, and he's definitely not that. Any comparisons to Jordan Crawford, who Stevens got so much out of, are not fair. Turner likewise enjoys dribbling, but, with Rondo healthy and Smart backing him up, won't handle the ball nearly as much as Crawford. Turner will need to work off the ball, and he hasn't been a good shooter, and he hasn't been a good defender, and I think you see where I'm going with this.

If not, enjoy this piece of symbolism:



(Related: I appreciated Thornton's agent preemptively complaining about playing time. You don't see that every day.)

8. Chris Johnson, Keith Bogans and Chris Babb will all be released. The fact Turner hasn't officially signed suggests Danny Ainge is probably looking for other ways to trim the roster, but at this stage all three nonguaranteed guys appear in trouble. I suspect the Celtics would most like to keep Johnson, but if they can't find roster space, he'll be out too, despite solid 3-point shooting, constant hustle and an excessively team-friendly contract.

9. When everyone's healthy, the backcourt rotation will look something like this:

Point guard

Rondo - 37 minutes
Smart - 11 minutes

Shooting guard

Bradley - 28 minutes
Smart - 11 minutes
Thornton - 9 minutes

(Sorry, Phil. Evan, you'll spend some time at small forward.)




bob
MY NOTE: 37mpg sounds high for Rondo. I know what he used to do, but that was when he didn't really have any depth behind him. He has depth now.



.

I don't agree with playing Rondo 37 mpg necessarily. If you want constant pace, you gotta rotate your guards.


KJ