...What If The Celtics Are Actually Good?

...What if the Celtics are actually good?
By Ted Andrews on Sep 7 2014, 8:43p 12






I saw somewhere a writer say that Rondo was secretly hoping that this team could be the Phoenix Suns of this year and be sneakily good. This got me to thinking. What if the Celtics are good this year?

To be fair, there was a player (Sully I think) who thought last years' team was going to be good. He was wrong. It is the job of the players to convince themselves that they could be good. Of course they cannot be trusted to give impartial perspectives to the press. Otherwise we would say they had no heart or find some other negative.

But is it really that outlandish? It never works out that everything breaks right at the same time, so what if 3/5 scenarios go as well as they possibly could for the Celtics? Could they be the Suns of this year?

Let's list these 5 scenarios and then pick 3 of them:

1. Rondo fully healed becomes the "old" Rondo again. Maybe even with a jumper.
2. Avery Bradley takes the "next step" and is a top 10 SG.
3. Sully or Olynyk takes the "next step" with a breakout year.
4. With better defensive guards in front of him, Zeller turns into an above average center and serviceable rim protector.
5. One of the other veterans turns in a really good year playing solidly off the bench or as a starter.
Note I did not include a breakout year from Jeff Green. I think we know what he is at this point (not that this is a horrible thing, I just don't fit into the camp of those waiting for a breakout from him). Note also I did not include an all star appearance from one of the rookies. I tried to keep these relatively realistic.

Now I'll pick what I view as the most likely of these and make them come true with my magic wand:

I'll split the baby with Rondo, he doesn't make it back to where he was, but gets close and his better jumper makes up the difference. In short, he plays at an all star level but not all nba.
Sully or Olynyk has a breakout year and becomes an above average starting PF.
Bass or Thornton become an exceptional 6th man off the bench.
So a lineup of:

PG: All star Rondo

SG: Average Bradley (taking into account both ends of the floor)

SF: Average Green (ready... set... go Green haters, go)

PF: Above average Sully or Olynyk

C: Below average Zeller

with a bench of:

Above average Bass or Thornton

Average (whichever Bass or Thornton doesn't overachieve)

Average backup PG (between Pressey and Smart)

Average (whichever Sully or Olynyk doesn't break out)

Your 5th bench player is likely below average Faverani, Wallace or Evan Turner.

This could absolutely be the Phoenix Suns of this year. There are a lot of weird similarities like the best player being a PG, second best player also a guard and lots of interchangeable young pieces and players with one specific skill set. Jeff Green and Gerald Green remind me of each other with their tentative drives and corner 3's. Jeff is better while Gerald is more athletic in my humble opinion. While the Morris twins are not very similar in playing style to either of the Celtics' young PF's, but teams have young big guys with a little experience mixed in.

Keep in mind, the Suns last year would have been tied for 3rd in the East. That doesn't even take into account the extra wins from playing the East teams more. Of course, the Eastern Conference's talent has been spread out a bit with Cleveland, Miami and Chicago at the top and likely one of the next tier of Toronto, Washington, Charlotte or Atlanta poised to move up. Still, the conference is not good.

If I had to bet money on it, would I bet that the Celtics are a top 5 team in the East this year? Certainly not. I'm not sure how bad the Vegas odds are for them to make the playoffs at all this year (and I'm not a sports gambler) but I think they are more likely to make the playoffs than most think (provided they keep Rondo). I think if a few things broke well for them, the Celtics could be very good.

Commence the hatred in the comments.




bob




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Bob,
Thanks for the article.
As soon as I finished reading it I thought I heard my alarm clock ( that I hate so much in the morning). It was a nice dream.
He mentioned 3/5 - I have 2 remaining reasons that'd prevent (IMO) Celtics to go to playoffs let alone 2nd round or deeper (I presume that what "actually good" means). 1- they don't have prolific scorer, say 25-27 APG. 2- they don't have defensive anchor.
I'd say if the Celtics get about 35 wins this season it'll be significant progress, one of those steps that lead them to the contending level.

AK

If Zeller can anchor the defense, that will help this team immensely. That's what was missing last year, other than offensive continuity.



KJ

None of the reasons the writer expresses would have as much impact as Brad and the players finding that they complement one another so well that their play together involves increasingly more instinct and less deliberation. It's always about the team.

Sam

I see the Celtics as being improved in virtually every position and as a whole, so I expect them to be significantly better.

All this is based on the current roster:

Center - they actually have one and won't rely on a PF playing out of position.

Power forward -- they get the benefit of Sullinger playing the position he's suited for, Olynyk being one year wiser, stronger, and better, plus steady Brandon Bass continuing to do his thing.

Small forward -- the most static of the positions compared to last year. They hopefully have to rely less on Green to be the best scorer and just be a productive player. Evan Turner is hopefully a productive backup at this position.

"2" guard -- I hesitate to call it "shooting guard" because that's not what the guys at this position do best, except Thornton. If Bradley stays healthy, he is productive, and Smart and Turner are nice additions as backups. Thornton can hopefully provide scoring off the bench and help spread the floor.

Point guard -- Rondo is healthy to start the season, so they're hugely better off, both from a straight production standpoint and continuity standpoint. With a year under his belt, Pressey is far more comfortable backup. Smart can provide minutes at both guard positions.

Coach -- Stevens is much better just by having a year of experience in the league. He also has a roster that is presumably better constructed to implement what he wants to do. He also has a year of rapport with the holdover players to build on and leverage.

Miscellaneous -- they'll miss Humphries' toughness, but hopefully all the plusses will more than make up for that minus. Having a good chunk of the roster already familiar with Stevens' schemes is a big plus compared to coming into camp with a rookie coach and all-new schemes. No having to rely on guys playing out of position is a huge plus.

They were a disappointing 25-57 last season, so given all the upsides I've listed above, I clearly expect them to be better, but it's a stretch to say that they'll be actually good. If they are 10 games better this season, that's a big jump, but 35-47 doesn't qualify as "good." Being 16 games better (41-41) is possible, but a lot has to go right for that to happen; even so, I don't define 41-41 as "good."

The key, for me, is defense. I was disappointed to not see more improvement in team defense as the season went along. If they can be two points better -- 105.7 points allowed per 100 possessions, as opposed to the 107.7 they allowed last season -- they can move from the bottom half of the league (20th last season) to the top half (105.7 would have been 11th). This should be a team strength. We'll see if it happens. One thing for certain is that they won't become "good" until it does.

Outside,

Good analysis of each position. But the key will be how complementary they are with one another. The sum of the individual parts is important—but not as important as the whole equaling more than the sum of the individual parts.

Sam

In basketball familiarity does not breEd contempt. It breeds continuity, and we know what that begets: success.

worcester wrote:In basketball familiarity does not breEd contempt. It breeds continuity, and we know what that begets:  success.

worcester,

In life, familiarity breeds children.


bob


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And Adam begat Cain and Abel.