FiveThirtyEight.Com - The Celtics Are Going To Be Good Again

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nba-boston-celtics-preview-carmelo/



2015-16 NBA Preview: The Celtics Are Going To Be Good Again

12:10 PM By CHRIS FORSBERG




Marcus Smart of the Boston Celtics during a preseason game against Real Madrid on Oct. 8 in Madrid.
Marcus Smart of the Boston Celtics during a preseason game against Real Madrid on Oct. 8 in Madrid.

GONZALO ARROYO MORENO / GETTY IMAGES

We’re inaugurating our NBA player projection system, CARMELO, with 2015-16 season previews for every team in the league. Check out the teams we’ve already previewed here. Learn more about CARMELO here.

The Boston Celtics didn’t just bring back 10 players from a second-half hot streak, they also added veteran big men David Lee and Amir Johnson to their roster. You’d have to be chugging the green Kool-Aid to expect Boston to maintain its second-half pace — the Celtics’ 24 wins in 36 games would put them at 55 wins (?!) on the season — but most fans do expect them to take another step forward after a 40-win season. For the first time in his brief NBA career, coach Brad Stevens will endure the burden of expectations, and that will start with getting this team back to the playoffs. Until GM Danny Ainge starts using the team’s surplus of future draft picks, Stevens will have to get there without an obvious superstar at the helm of his roster.

Even without that superstar, FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO1 expects the Celtics to go 48-34.




Here’s what is in store for the key Celtics players in 2015-16 (you can find Boston’s entire roster — and every other NBA player — here):  http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/




You had Celtics fans at James Harden, CARMELO (and Paul George isn’t a comp Boston fans will sneeze at, either). OK, so Marcus Smart’s encouraging projections probably aren’t enough for Ainge to call off the hunt for an elite talent, but Smart, the No. 6 pick in the 2014 draft, is clearly Boston’s best hope for a homegrown star. He’s already a defensive menace, the question is whether he can confidently run an NBA offense.



Nate Robinson as the top comp? Is CARMELO making height jokes? (Even better, the Celtics traded away Robinson in 2011 as a throw-in to the Jeff Green/Kendrick Perkins deal.) It’s interesting that projections suggest that Isaiah Thomas will maintain his 2014 offensive impact, but regress defensively. The Celtics did a good job of masking Thomas’s defensive deficiencies by often putting versatile, defensive-minded players around him. Thomas was the main reason for Boston’s second-half surge last season, and he is the straw that stirs the drink.



CARMELO is not kind to Amir Johnson, who is typically an advanced stats darling. The Celtics signed Johnson for two years at $24 million because they believe he’ll give their defense a boost with pure hustle and an ability to help protect the rim.



CARMELO is bullish on Kelly Olynyk, the 7-foot Canadian with flowing hair. So are the Celtics when he doesn’t hesitate with his shot and emerges as a floor-stretching weapon.



Jared Sullinger must prove he’s capable of staying healthy in what amounts to a contract year.



Somehow the “Swedish Larry Bird” nickname for Jonas Jerebko sounds a lot cooler than “Swedish Scott Padgett.”



The Celtics love Jae Crowder’s intangibles and believe they got much more than a $35 million Jud Buechler in re-signing Crowder to a long-term deal this summer.



The Knicks signed top comp Robin Lopez to a four-year, $54 million contract this summer, so maybe Boston ought to consider a reasonable extension with Tyler Zeller before the end of October if he fits the team’s future plans.

Footnotes

1.  Carmelo = Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization. ^
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-were-predicting-nba-player-career/


Chris Forsberg writes about the Boston Celtics for ESPN.  @espnforsberg



bob
MY NOTE:  I can't copy-and-paste the rest of the players, so if you go out to the 538.com link you can type in the name of the players and see them for yourselves.  There is A LOT more detail/player than what is shown here.  Stat geeks and people who want to base their predictions on something more than the eyeball test (or want to use stats to sanity-check their eyeball tests) may like this.


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thanks Bob,

I do enjoy seeing what others see when they compare current players to other ones  or even past players. Though they seem to have SOME large range of players for most.


I don't think they are close for the playing time breakdown they have listed however on many of the players. As a fan, I have them like this right now:

Player---------C--------PF-------SF-------SG------PG------Totals
A. Johnson---1800 Min
T. Zeller------1400
K. Olynyk------700-----700---------------------------------1400
D. Lee------------------1800
J. Sullinger-------------1400
J. Crowder----------------------1800
J. Jerebko-----------------------1000
E. Tuner-------------------------1100-----600--------------1700
A. Bradley---------------------------------2200
M. Smart----------------------------------1100-----1100----2200
I. Thomas--------------------------------------------2200
T. Rozier----------------------------------------------600

I think that's all the minutes for a season there.

of course at some point Danny is likely to move someone to open up time.

but those are the 12 guys I expect to see most of the playing time right now.


woops...I see they went with % or minute per position so here goes:

player----------------C-----------PF----------SF-------------SG---------------PG--------------Total
Amir----------------45%
Zeller---------------35%
Kelly O-------------20%---------20%-----------------------------------------------------------40%
Lee-------------------------------45%
Sully-----------------------------35%
Crowder--------------------------------------45%
Jerkebo---------------------------------------30%
Turner----------------------------------------25%----------20%--------------------------------45%
Bradley------------------------------------------------------55%
Smart--------------------------------------------------------25%-------------30%-------------55%
Thomas------------------------------------------------------------------------55%
Rozier--------------------------------------------------------------------------15%

The author offers some stats, which I assume are accurate, and then proceeds to make a prediction as to how the Celtics will fare this year. Having the collective skills to improve from 40-42 last year to a projected 48-34 season this year looks good on paper. Now if your content to just make the playoffs I can understand being thrilled with a 48-34 record. However, its going to take a much better record to become a real serious contender for the ring. An also ran effort just doesn't do it for me. And that's where the elite super stars come in to play. If and when Ainge can fill out the roster with a couple of All League players is the day that I will view the team as having a reasonable chance to win it all. I understand the role that stats play in projecting the outcome of sporting events, and the one stat that sticks out in my mind in the NBA, is the affect of the super star. They are the key to winning it all.

swish

swish wrote:                                                                                                                                                                    The author offers some stats, which I assume are accurate, and then proceeds to make a prediction as to how the Celtics will fare this year.    Having the collective skills to improve from  40-42 last year to a projected 48-34 season this year looks good on paper.  Now if your content to just make the playoffs I can understand being thrilled with a 48-34 record. However, its going to take a much better record to become a real serious contender for the ring. An also ran effort just doesn't do it for me. And that's where the elite super stars come in to play.  If and when Ainge can fill out the roster with a couple of All League players is the day that I will view the team as having a reasonable chance to win it all. I understand the role that stats play in projecting the outcome of sporting events, and the one stat that sticks out in my mind in the NBA, is the affect of the super star. They are the key to winning it all.

swish  

swish,

How does one attract the superstars if you don't have a team that is appealing to them?  I'd say it's a chicken-and-egg thing, but it really isn't.  You need a chicken before you can lay the golden egg.  Superstars don't want to go to a total rebuild.  All-Leaguers don't need to, and won't, go to a team that sucks.  They want to go somewhere they are one of the final finishing pieces to a Finals appearance.  

If the Cavs struggled against us and lost to Atlanta, say, do you think Kevin Love would have re-signed with them?  I don't.  The LA Lakers have a fantastic history, almost as glorious as our own, but they whiffed again and again this summer with superstar free agents, most spectacularly with LaMarcus Aldridge who signed with the Spurs for less money than Jim Buss was ready to throw at him.  Why?  It's because LA is WAY too early in the rebuild cycle to appeal to him.

If you want to trade for a superstar, you have to have some assets of value to offer in return.  Thanks to the CBA you cannot just trade a boatload of draft picks for a $20M player, you have to send actual salaries with them and that means the players you have under contract are appealing to your trading partner.  If you want to sign a superstar as a free agent, or if you trade for one and you want them to re-sign with you, you have to have a roster that is appealing to them and that makes them feel optimistic and want to stay.

That's why it's important to win.  If you win your players look appealing.  If you win your system/program looks successful.  If you win you can point to material progress towards the goal of competing for a championship.  If you lose, all you can do is talk about the past and blow smoke about the future.

If Brad and Danny can take us from being a 25-win doormat to the 2nd round of the playoffs in 3 years, that speaks volumes about our system/program.  It also makes superstars, both under contract but tradeable and unrestricted free agents, look at us differently if for no other reason that we are now facing them in the playoffs and they have to pay attention to us and respect us.

You don't go from a crawl to a full Olympic sprint.  You walk, then you run.  We got up on our feet last year, up off our knees, and are now trying to at least walk fast if not jog and trot.  This is a 3-5 year rebuild, minimum, and we are just starting year 3.  We were a .304 team, are almost a .500 team and this article projects us to be a .585 team this year (48/82).  That's the kind of improvement that gets GMs' and superstars' attention.  Who wants to trade a superstar for players from a .304 or even sub-.500 team? What all-leaguer wants to be, long term, on a team that can't even make the playoffs in the crappy EC?



bob


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bob

 Is it the won/lost record or the caliber of players on a team that entices players to switch teams via a trade or free agency ? A strong case can be made for players  placing a high priority on the quality of the players that they will be playing with.  For example : In 2010-11 James and Bosh joined Wade on a Miami team that was 47-33 (.573 ) the year before. Then in 2014-15,  he and Love joined up with Irving and Thompson  on a Cleveland team that was 33-49 in 2013-14.   In 2007-08 Garnett and Allen joined up with Pierce on a Celtic team that was 24-58 (.293) the year before.  And just this past summer Monroe signed a 16 Million dollar deal with Milwaukee that was 41-41 in 2014-15.  An where they sign can be greatly limited by the few teams that have the Cap space to take on the real big contracts or the quality chips to make a deal for an elite player. When picking in the bottom half of the draft the odds of selecting a future elite player is very low and even then would not likely be of any immediate help. I realize that my viewpoint on this matter is not shared by others on this board but I'm comfortable with it.  During rebuilding years my focus is always on individual achievement rather than team performance. I guess I'm always looking for the home grown elite player so that we can narrow the list of players that we will have to import to once again be a serious contender.  

swish