5 Reasons Why The Celtics Should Keep Marcus Thornton

http://www.celticsblog.com/2014/9/21/6341743/five-reasons-why-the-boston-celtics-should-keep-marcus-thornton



Five reasons why the Boston Celtics should keep Marcus Thornton
By Kevin O'Connor  @KevinOConnorNBA on Sep 21 2014, 2:07a 23




Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Looking for a spark, Boston?




Earlier this month I wrote about why the Boston Celtics should trade the recently acquired Marcus Thornton in order to free up more minutes for other young players at the wing position, but it's easy to forget that Thornton himself is relatively young, at just 27-years-old.

Thornton is a score-first shooting guard and still has the potential to be a quality player, which is one of the primary reasons why the Celtics should consider keeping him.


Thornton's a sparkplug

This is what I wrote before free agency began earlier this summer:

Celtics Sparkplug History

Year--------------------Player(s)
2003--------------------Marcus Banks, Mike James
2004--------------------Marcus Banks
2005--------------------Marcus Banks, Delonte West
2006--------------------Sebastian Telfair, Delonte West
2007--------------------Eddie House
2008--------------------Eddie House
2009--------------------Eddie House, Nate Robinson
2010--------------------Nate Robinson, Delonte West
2011--------------------Avery Bradley
2012--------------------Leonardo Barbosa, Jordan Crawford
2013--------------------Jerryd Bayless, Jordan Crawford

Offseason Preview: Guard Targets
After selecting Marcus Smart at #6 in the 2014 NBA Draft, the Celtics managed to bolster their backcourt depth, but they still need to fill the role of "sparkplug," a position that Danny Ainge has had every single season of his tenure as general manager. Seriously, just look at that list to the right. There's no question that Boston will be active in their pursuit of a scorer who can light it up from the guard position; thankfully, there are a load of options...

Even though Boston didn't add a sparkplug scorer in free agency -- Evan Turner can in spurts -- there is no doubt that Thornton can fill that role. That is what his game is built for -- his nicknames are "Bayou Bomber" and "Buckets" for good reason. Over the years he has gained the reputation of being a one-dimensional shot chucker and a volume scorer, but these are derogatory terms. Another appropriate term could be sparkplug, which is what the Celtics needed.

Thornton will definitely have his off-nights, but he will also have games where he starts bombing away from downtown and goes off for 30-plus points. He's the type of player who can win a game because of his scoring spark off the bench, or at least bring momentum back in Boston's favor.





Marcus + Marcus = Production

Let's think about the other Marcus on the team -- Marcus Smart, that is -- what is the best way to help him develop into more of a true point guard? I'd argue that it's pairing him with a player who can score off of him and drain open three-point opportunities.


Naturally, Thornton fits that description to a tee. Thornton has attempted 790 spot-up threes in his career and sank 38.1 percent of them. This is a terrific weapon that will help the Celtics, who ranked 27th in the NBA on catch and shoot threes last season, according to SportVU.

Smart is at his best in space, so it'll be interesting to see him running the floor with Thornton, who hits threes at a 37.6 percent clip in this situation. If the bench is able to force turnovers, the Marcus Duo could be extremely potent in transition.


Thornton could be a late bloomer

Believe it or not, Thornton was once thought of as one of the league's promising young scorers after averaging 18.7 points with a 50.5 eFG percentage as a third-year player. Even though his points still came in bunches, he flashed the potential of a high-end role player.

Two years later, Thornton is an outcast; his defense has degraded and his efficiency has plummeted. But what has also evaporated is any semblance of a consistent environment. Thornton's role and minutes have fluctuated so much so that he has been unable to establish any sense of a rhythm.


Situation---------------------eFG%----------3PT%----------2PT%----------FG%----------PTS/36
Over 30 Minutes-------------51.6%---------37.1%---------49.2%---------44.6%--------19.7
20 to 30 Minutes-------------52.0%---------37.6%---------48.7%---------43.9%--------18.5
Under 20 Minutes------------38.4%---------25.6%---------38.4%---------33.6%--------13.2
Starter------------------------50.0%---------34.9%---------48.5%---------43.2%--------17.9
Reserve-----------------------50.6%---------37.1%---------47.2%---------43.0%--------19.0

The chart above suggests a couple interesting things about Thornton. First, he is a total non-factor unless he's playing at least 20 minutes per game. He has a dismal 38.4 eFG percentage in games playing less than 20 minutes per game, but that percentage rises to over 51 percent in games he plays 20 minutes or more.

This could mean that he just gets pulled when he's struggling (so he's not able to reach the benchmark of 20 minutes), but it could also mean that he takes awhile to develop a rhythm, like many shooters do. Considering the abnormally huge disparity in numbers, I'm willing to bet that it's more the latter than the former. However, a more in-depth study would be necessary to determine the true cause.

It's quite reassuring there is no discernible difference in his numbers when he starts or comes off the bench, since Thornton will have a reserve role with the Celtics this season. Many score-first players have difficulties finding the flow when they aren't starting, but Thornton appears to have adjusted well.


Thornton is an expiring contract

Even if Thornton has another disaster of a season, then that's really the worst that can happen. With an expiring contract valued at $8.6 million, he could hold some value closer to the deadline trade deadline.

Even if the Celtics struggle again this season and are sellers closer to the deadline, then there's a chance some team will look for a low-risk, high-reward scorer like Thornton. Maybe the Celtics could be in a spot to acquire a draft pick or young player, just like they did for Jordan Crawford last season. The return wouldn't be strong, but it'd be a lot more than they'd get now (which is next to nothing).

Or think about the best-case scenario: What if the Celtics are having a good season and are in a position to make a move for a big-time difference-maker? Is there another team in the league who can offer an expiring contract (like Thornton)? Sure, but there aren't very many who have the assets to complete a deal. If Danny Ainge wants a player, he might be in the best position to get him.

There is no reason not to plan for the best-case scenario, especially if the front office really does want Rajon Rondo to be a part of their long-term plan.

Even putting aside any potential trades, Thornton is a fairly young player who once flashed the upside of an effective scorer who can create his own shot on a nightly basis. He has faded in recent years, but if the Celtics keep him on the roster for the year, they might find out that they want to keep him around longer.




The Bayou Bomber hits big buckets

Boston was 9-14 in games decided by five points or less last season, partially due to their inability to get stops, but also because of the lack of a go-to scorer down the stretch. They were the 27th ranked team in eFG percentage in games in the last three minutes of games with a point differential of five or less. Of qualified players, Jeff Green was the most "clutch," with a 44.4 eFG percentage in the aforementioned situation.

But Thornton takes the cake, with a career 47.6 eFG percentage in that specific situation. He has nailed tons of daggers and appears to live for those moments. Even though Green was solid in that role last season, he still really isn't the type of player who can create is own shot. Thornton can, which presents value in end-game situations when Brad Stevens can use his timeouts to substitute in offense-oriented players like Thornton.

If Marcus Thornton isn't traded before the season, then he'll certainly get the chance to "showcase his talents" with the team, but he'll need to put forth the same effort required on the defensive end for Stevens to give him heavy minutes. If he does that, he might be one of the Boston Celtics' greatest surprises.[/b][/b]



bob
MY NOTE:  The author said he wrote about why the Celtics should trade Thornton earlier this month, so I presume he's just trying to provide balance by writing as his own Devil's Advocate, although why he didn't follow up the first column immediately with this one is not cogent to me.  I agree with his premise about "Marcus + Marcus".  I think that could be the best pairing since they'd have a combination of defense and offense.  Other than that, I'm having trouble with the rest of Kevin O'Connor's reasons.

1.  Did you see that list of sparkplugs?  Marcus Banks?  Sebastian Telfair?  Only Delonte West's name didn't induce a gag reflex.  Crawford was acquired mid-season and then started the beginning of next year, so he wasn't a "sparkplug", he was a starter.  I love Barbosa but he didn't get minutes until the end and then he blew out his ACL.  Nate had his moments, both ways.  If O'Connor's goal was to make me go "oooh" with this list, he failed.  I went "ick".  Scoring sparkplugs are not synonymous with "6th man", at least not my definition.  

2.  Thornton needs 20mpg to be effective?  Fugetaboutit.  There are 96mpg available at SG/SF (Thornton is not eligible for any minutes at PG).  Our depth at those positions will be:  Smart, Bradley, Thornton, Green, Turner, Wallace and Young.  Bradley will get 25mpg.  He'll get injured, if history means anything, but when he's healthy he's eating up over 1/4 of the minutes.  If Smart splits his time at PG and SG, he'll still get 10mpg at SG, minimum.  Green will get 30+mpg.  That leaves less than 31mpg to split between Turner and Wallace (both of whom are legit SFs, as opposed to 6'4" 205# Thornton), Young (who may be in Maine and play zero minutes) and Thornton.  31 minutes.  How is Thornton going to get 20mpg out of that?  Per O'Connor, Thornton needs stable minutes to thrive.  I doubt that's going to happen here unless Marcus Smart implodes or Bradley's body craps out.

3.  "Thornton is a late bloomer" because he was promising as a 3rd year player.  He has played 6 seasons now.  That would suggest to me he has bloomed and faded.

3.   "The Bayou Bomber Hits Big Shots".  Oh yeah?  Well, according to 82games.com, Marcus Thornton shot 37.5% in the clutch (5 minutes or less and/or OT, the lead 5 points or less) in 2011-2012.  http://www.82games.com/CSORT6.HTM  He shot 36.4% from 3 in the clutch and, of his 24.5 fgas/48minutes in the clutch, 11.2 of them were 3s.  In other words, he did "bomb away".  Is 36.4% something to drool over?

4.  "Thornton is an expiring contract".  Yeah, we know Kevin.  That's not a reason to keep him, that's a reason why he might be valuable in a trade (aka "not keep him").  Keith Bogan's value is in his cancellable contract, does that mean we should keep him too?

You know, he could have listed a couple of good points, like the "Marcus + Marcus" one, and rested on his laurels.  Good points made for a limited role player but he needed to fill out a page and ended up disproving (e.g. there is no consistent 20+mpg opportunities, those sparkplugs were dubious, etc) most of his own column.

I don't know, maybe I've just got it in for Thornton because I've been reading his palm-slap tweets all summer...



.

I would guess that a Marcus+Marcus pairing would work best in combination with either Sully or Kelly (or both) because somebody's got to pass the ball.  Moreover, Thornton's three point ability might help keep Sully down low, where he belongs, on offense.

I still think Thornton's greatest ongoing value could be as a sixth man who can provide points in bunches to blunt enemy momentum and/or create Celtics momentum.

As for minutes, they'll take care of themselves.  Although predicting minutes is something I cogitate about 21-22 hours a day, I'm keeping my predictions to myself.

Sam