Could Smart plays 20 mpg as a rookie?

http://www.csnne.com/blog/celtics-talk/could-smart-hit-20-minutes-mark-rookie


Could Smart hit 20-minutes mark as rookie?

September 22, 2014, 1:00 pm


BOSTON — You would have better luck finding a Lakers fan trolling Causeway Street, than someone who believes Marcus Smart won't play a good amount of minutes for the Boston Celtics this season.

But for him to deliver the kind of impact many envision, it'll likely mean he needs to play at least 20 minutes per game.

Good luck with that one, young fella.

For rookies in Boston, often the first season is more about watching and waiting, than wearing down opponents.

But by most accounts, Smart appears to be different.

His size (6-4, 225) gives him the frame to withstand the physical rigors that come with an 82-game schedule and if you're overly optimistic-feeling this morning, a playoff appearance.

Smart's leadership and basketball I.Q. gives credence to the notion that he won't be overwhelmed by all the changes that are sure to come his way this season.

But none of that matters if he's buried on the bench behind veterans.

Smart will play at the point some, but minutes there aren't likely to be plentiful with Rajon Rondo back to near-perfect health after suffering a torn right ACL injury in January of 2013.

At the very least, Rondo will log minutes similar to his career average which is 33 minutes per game.

That means for Smart to play 20 or so minutes, he'll have to play some off the ball.

But it's still unclear what impact that will have on the minutes of Avery Bradley, or Marcus Thornton, or Evan Turner, or whoever else they decide to trot out on to the court at the off-guard position.

And on side note, what does that mean to Rondo's backup at the point last year, Phil Pressey?

Does he spend most of this season not playing or will Boston try and carve out a role in terms of minutes for him as well?

While it's a small sample - one season - Celtics head coach Brad Stevens does seem more open than his predecessors to playing rookies.

Last season, Kelly Olynyk averaged an even 20 minutes per game which made him the first Celtics rookie since Rajon Rondo (23.5 minutes per game) in 2007 to average 20 or more minutes per game.

The only other Celtics rookie in the past decade to average 20 or more minutes was former Providence College star Ryan Gomes who averaged 22.6 minutes in 2006, although Sullinger came oh-so-close with a 19.8 minutes per game average in 2013.

Olynyk, Rondo and Gomes had something else in common during their rookie seasons in Boston - they lost a lot of games.

Those three teams had a combined record of 82-164 (.333), or 27.3 wins per season.

But as we saw with Rondo, those early struggles on the floor were instrumental in his development into being a four-time All-Star.

And in Olynyk's case, playing early allowed him to gain confidence despite all the losing. That confidence shined brightly at the end of the season.

In the month of April, Olynyk averaged 16.6 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists while shooting 54.7 percent from the field and 42.9 percent on 3s.

As both will tell you, their rookie seasons had plenty of bumps along the way.

But as we have seen, the payout down the road makes getting talented rookies significant minutes early on, well worth it.

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The author (whose name has been omitted) seems to assume that Pressey is going to get shafted in the minutes department. I'm not so sure about that just yet.

Sure, he could play 20 mpg. That would depend on the health of the other guards, though.



KJ

I would think it would be kind of smart (ha ha) to try and play him as much as possible. It would both show "if we need Rondo" but also possibly showcase the talent for Rondo to make him stay. Only negative ofc would be if he would not live up to the promises which would make it both obvious to Rondo that it was a "wasted pick"/not as much reason to stay and also Rondo would be more valuable to us

Swede,

I think we are a few years away from being able to determine whether Smart was a good pick or not, though I believe he is. This also holds true for his value in the context of Rondo as a Celtic.


KJ