Putting the 'D' in Exceed

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4715320/putting-the-d-in-exceed



Celtics might be better than expected
Improved defense could make Brad Stevens' team overachievers this season
Updated: October 27, 2014, 11:36 PM ET
By Chris Forsberg | ESPNBoston.com




WALTHAM, Mass. -- Of all the encouraging glimpses the Boston Celtics displayed during the preseason, one may have been the most propitious: Boston owned the best defensive rating in the entire league.

Alas, nobody gives out trophies for having the best anything in preseason play and no accomplishment truly matters until the games matter (see: Jermaine O'Neal, 2011 training camp MVP). So, not surprisingly, coach Brad Stevens quickly downplayed an honor that will soon be forgotten.

"Well, that doesn't mean a lot. I was looking for last season's preseason defensive ratings and I couldn't find them," Stevens said Monday to laughter.



Barry Chin/The Boston Globe/Getty Images
Avery Bradley, Jared Sullinger and the rest of the Celtics played the best defense in the league during the preseason.


If Stevens ever had a copy of last preseason's numbers, he probably burned them as the Celtics' defensive rating ranked 24th in the league. (For the record, the San Antonio Spurs were three spots lower and things worked out just fine for them.)

But when you're a team in transition, you grab silver linings where you can. The Celtics posted a glitzy defensive rating of 93.4 this preseason -- nearly seven points better than a year ago and almost two points better than the nearest competitor this preseason (Phoenix, 95.2). That's got to mean something, right?

"I would say that it means we're progressing, but we still have a long way to go," Stevens said.

If nothing else, Boston's quest to be a top-10 defense may not seem so far-fetched anymore. The Celtics have tweaked their defensive philosophies to match their personnel, and the addition of rookie Marcus Smart has added some tenacity to a perimeter defense that also should benefit from a healthier Rajon Rondo. If the Celtics remain committed to the defensive DNA that Stevens recoded this offseason, they are going to at least give themselves a chance to compete on a night-to-night basis.

Which leads to a bigger question: Could the Celtics exceed expectations this season?

By now you've seen all the predictions. Vegas has Boston pegged for about 27 wins -- a measly two-win improvement from last season -- while the number crunchers at FiveThirtyEight Sports suggested the Celtics could wiggle up to 30 wins. The trend: Neither computers nor educated observers seem to think the Celtics will do much more than shimmy up the lottery ladder.

So let me go ahead and pour a tall glass of green Kool-Aid and throw something crazy at you: What if these Celtics are better than most think they'll be?

I can hear you scoffing from across the Internet. Believe me, I'm looking at that November schedule and wondering if the team's confidence will be intact much longer than your Thanksgiving bird.

And, yes, an awful lot has to go right for this team to win consistently. It means staying healthy, it means young players making big strides, it means Rondo re-establishing himself as an All-Star-caliber force, it means newcomers making immediate impacts, and it means finding a way to better respond to adversity.

Maybe most importantly, it means a sustained commitment to the defensive side of the ball -- all without a pure rim protector on the back line. But let's say that happens. Could the Celtics win 38 games? A season ago, that was enough to sneak into the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.

Let's save the debate about whether it even benefits Boston to be a low-seeded playoff team for another day, acknowledging that it typically is a recipe for getting stuck in rebuilding purgatory. All I'm wondering is whether the Celtics could end up being a little better than most seem to expect.

Of course, expectations aren't high to begin with. Casual observers appear mildly intrigued by Rondo's future, but when they consider the prospects of the 2014-15 campaign, they usually lament facing another rebuilding season.


That's not really in question. The Celtics, with their youthful roster, are going to endure their lumps, and no one is saying that this team is going to make a surprise run at competing for a title. We're just suggesting the Celtics could be better than the 20-something-win team that most assume they'll be.

And we keep going back to that defense. Last season, the top 12 teams in defensive rating all made the postseason, while only two teams, the Dallas Mavericks and Brooklyn Nets, made the playoffs while ranking in the bottom half of the league. Just muscling into the top half of the league ought to put a team in the playoff conversation.

Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge has steered clear of setting expectations for his team. Ainge admits he's intrigued by what he's observed thus far, but has pledged a wait-and-see approach because of all the question marks.

Maybe the pundits are correct. Maybe with everything working against the Celtics, they are destined for another lean season. Or maybe not. That's why this time of year is so much fun. There are 30 teams that think they are contenders (well, 29 and the Philadelphia 76ers).

If the Celtics play the sort of defense we saw in the preseason, they are at least going to give themselves a chance to exceed expectations.




bob
MY NOTE: The November schedule will make it hard for Celtic fans to see a playoff in their near future, but November is a cruel month for us. Let's see where we're at in February, after the schedule has had a chance to even out a bit and we've played together more.



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