G. Dieng- Minn

I really would like to see this kid in green, he would check off all the boxes inside we need.

Sully OR Kelly for him, heck I'd throw in a future draft pick to sweeten the deal.

rumors I've read say Minny is higher on him that Pekovic though.

He was on our pre draft list 2 year ago.

He still has a lot of room to improve.

I like him too.

Dboss

I am struggling to see what he does better than Sullinger other than .4 blocks more per game.

No way in hell I give up Sully or Kelly for this kid.  Total project with zero offensive skills and a body that is questionable in terms of durability.  No thanks.

mrkleen09 wrote:I am struggling to see what he does better than Sullinger other than .4 blocks more per game.

No way in hell I give up Sully or Kelly for this kid.  Total project with zero offensive skills and a body that is questionable in terms of durability.  No thanks.

Totally agree.

1 double figure rebound game with 10, 3 double figure scoring games, ( high 12)
Sully or KO plus a pick? for this kid??
whopping 2 assists this season too.

There is one thing this kid can do better than either KO or Sully and that is block a shot, but that is it.

beat

PS we might just have a center down on the farm too. Powell certainly had a nice game the other day.

To clarify..I would not trade KO or Sully for him.

I like him but not that much.

Dboss

The allure of Dieng isn't based on what he's done this year. For a true snapshot of his potential, you need to look at the end of last season, starting at March 16, when he was moved into the starting lineup to replace an injured Pekovic.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dienggo01/gamelog/2014/

He had games like this:

Points/rebounds
22/21
11/17
15/15
12/20
21/14

He's only in his second season. He's not a great offensive player, but when he gets playing time, he does pretty well. His per-36 minute stats last season were 12.6 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks. So far this season, he's improved those to 14.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, and 3.2 blocks.

He's not a potential replacement for Sullinger at power forward. He's an actual center.

As for Powell, everything I've seen is that he isn't a center.

mrkleen09 wrote:I am struggling to see what he does better than Sullinger other than .4 blocks more per game.

No way in hell I give up Sully or Kelly for this kid.  Total project with zero offensive skills and a body that is questionable in terms of durability.  No thanks.

he's an up and coming NBA center who give you that defensive presence inside that we don't have right now (and many think we need badly).

not sure why you think he has an injury prone body at all?

as for the Sully/Dieng comparison:

the per 36 # (Career)

Stat------------Sully-------------Dieng
2pt FG%-------48.5------------50.4
3pt fg%--------25.9------------100.0 (only taken 1 TOTAL)
FT%------------77.4------------66.0
Reb-------------10.6------------13.2
Ast--------------2.0-------------1.6
Stl--------------0.7--------------1.2
Blk--------------0.9--------------2.3
TO--------------1.8--------------2.2
PF---------------4.9--------------4.6
Pts--------------15.5-------------12.8


I used career becasue we only have 6 gamse this year, but if you want this years comparisons:

Stat-----------Sully------------Dieng
2pt fg%-------54.7-------------56.7
3pt %---------13.3--------------0
FT %----------84.6-------------84.6
Reb------------9.8--------------13.5
Ast-------------3.3--------------0.6
Stl--------------0.4-------------0.6
Blk-------------1.4-------------3.2
TO--------------0.8-------------1.3
PF--------------3.3--------------3.9
Pts-------------17.0------------14.5

not too bad for a guy with Zero offensive skills, wouldn't you say?

If he's that good WHY isn't he playing more?

beat

Outside wrote:The allure of Dieng isn't based on what he's done this year. For a true snapshot of his potential, you need to look at the end of last season, starting at March 16, when he was moved into the starting lineup to replace an injured Pekovic.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dienggo01/gamelog/2014/

He had games like this:

Points/rebounds
22/21
11/17
15/15
12/20
21/14

He's only in his second season. He's not a great offensive player, but when he gets playing time, he does pretty well. His per-36 minute stats last season were 12.6 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks. So far this season, he's improved those to 14.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, and 3.2 blocks.

He's not a potential replacement for Sullinger at power forward. He's an actual center.

As for Powell, everything I've seen is that he isn't a center.

If we want to reframe the discussion to Dieng as a player on his own merits, that is fine.  

But this thread was about trading Kelly or Sully and a draft pick for him. So as it was presented here, he was being pitched as a replacement for Sully.

kdp59 wrote:

mrkleen09 wrote:I am struggling to see what he does better than Sullinger other than .4 blocks more per game.

No way in hell I give up Sully or Kelly for this kid.  Total project with zero offensive skills and a body that is questionable in terms of durability.  No thanks.

he's an up and coming  NBA center who give you that defensive presence inside that we don't have right now (and many think we need badly).

not sure why you think he has an injury prone body at all?

as for the Sully/Dieng comparison:

the per 36 # (Career)

Stat------------Sully-------------Dieng
2pt FG%-------48.5------------50.4
3pt fg%--------25.9------------100.0 (only taken 1 TOTAL)
FT%------------77.4------------66.0
Reb-------------10.6------------13.2
Ast--------------2.0-------------1.6
Stl--------------0.7--------------1.2
Blk--------------0.9--------------2.3
TO--------------1.8--------------2.2
PF---------------4.9--------------4.6
Pts--------------15.5-------------12.8


I used career becasue we only have 6 gamse this year, but if you want this years comparisons:

Stat-----------Sully------------Dieng
2pt fg%-------54.7-------------56.7
3pt %---------13.3--------------0
FT %----------84.6-------------84.6
Reb------------9.8--------------13.5
Ast-------------3.3--------------0.6
Stl--------------0.4-------------0.6
Blk-------------1.4-------------3.2
TO--------------0.8-------------1.3
PF--------------3.3--------------3.9
Pts-------------17.0------------14.5

not too bad for a guy with Zero offensive skills, wouldn't you say?

When you need to use Per 36 vs. the real numbers you are already looking at a losing argument.

One guy plays 31 minutes per game another plays 19. There is NO accounting for fatigue, poor decision making or anything else in the Per 36 stat. You assume that Dieng would never get tired and his productivity would remain the same playing 12 more minutes per game? How silly.

If you want to advocate for Dieng as a player - fine, he is actually a good young big man with some upside. But once you talk about trading Sully AND a draft pick for him, forget it.

mrkleen09 wrote:If we want to reframe the discussion to Dieng as a player on his own merits, that is fine.  

But this thread was about trading Kelly or Sully and a draft pick for him. So as it was presented here, he was being pitched as a replacement for Sully.

The Celtics have something of a dilemma. As I mentioned on another thread, I'm not sure if Sully and Olynyk together as starters is viable in the long term for a contender. The issue is at the defensive end against teams with size in the front court.

As a classic short and stocky power forward, I think Sullinger would be most effective if paired with a true rim-protecting and rebounding center, whether that be Zeller, Dieng, or someone else. Olynyk is not that guy. To be a contender, Olynyk at the 5 and Sullinger at the 4 can work for stretches, but not the whole game, especially against a team with a lot of size.

If you can add a center (or develop Zeller into that guy) and use all of them as part of the rotation, that's great, but if you have to trade to get the center, you have to give something up. I wouldn't automatically make Sullinger and Olynyk untouchable for trades, especially if the net result is the center of the future.

I like Sullinger, I like Olynyk, and my preference is to keep them both, but somewhere along the line, they need a real-deal center. Zeller is a step up, but I'm not sure he's the starting center for your next world championship Celtic team.

Outside.

I agree that the Celtics need a true center at some point in their rebuilding process before they can make a serious run. I may even be willing to consider Dieng as that guy, but not willing to give up on Sully or Kelly to do so.

it is incorrect that I proposed Dieng as a replacement for Sully.

Dieng is an NBA center

Sully is a NBA PF.

I DID propose TRADING Sully ( Of Kelly) for Dieng.

the obvious reason is most think we need a NBA center to move forward. Most here think neither Sully or Kelly can be a long temr option at center.

we cannot expect to keep both Sully and Kelly long term , IF both are NBA starting PF's.

Dieng ( in MY opinion) is one of the best young centers on the league. I understand that opinion may not be shared by others. Everything I read says Minny thinks highly enough of him that they are considering moving Perkovic and keeping Dieng long term.

to get something to improve your team, you have to give something, usually.

so that was my thought process as I say and read about Dieng again today.

as for not comparing his per 36 numbers...most times that is EXACTLY what we do to compare players. Just because the numbers don't work out the way we think, don't make them irrelevant.

so yeah, I WOULD trade Sully and maybe even Cleveland's future first for Dieng.

MY opinion is that a Celtics roster of
Dieng
Zeller
Kelly
Bass
Green
Wallace
Turner
Bradley
Thornton
Smart
Rondo
Pressey
Young
Fav
Powell

IS a playoff team THIS year in the East.

not only that but Ainge s set up with enough future picks to MOVE up in drafts to get those Smart type picks. The team is YOUNG and the money is there to give Rondo a max deal (if that's what Ainge is thinking) and still not hamstring the team in the future.

of course I could be wrong and Dieng may be nothing more than an NBA backup for his career. That's why Ainge gets the big bucks and I am writing on a fan message board after all.

Mrkleen,

Why does the per 36 minute stat continue to bother you.  It's not predicting anyone will play 36 minutes.  The 36 is just an arbitrary number they pick when making comparisons to put each player being compared on equal footing.

If the per 36 stat is a problem for you, just divide each player's per 36 stat by 36, and you'll get their comparative stats per minute.  Do you think they'd have enough stamina to play a minute per game?  Or divide the per 36 minute stat by 6 and you'll get comparative stats per 6 minutes.

The per 36 minute stat has nothing to do with endurance.  Absolutely nothing.

Sam

I've only read about Dieng.  But, as the years roll buy, it seems increasingly less likely that the Celtics will get a tried and true defensive stalwart at the center position any time soon.  That being the case, and the draft being such a crap shoot, it seems to me that they'll have to take a chance on developing someone for the position.  Not a raw hopeful like Fab Melo; but someone with excellent defensive credentials as a starting point.  From the scouting reports I've read about Dieng, he possesses defensive attributes other than shot blocking potential.  He's apparently very agile for a 6' 11" guy who weighs something like 245.  His footwork is said to be tremendously.

Personally, I'd love to see him paired with Zeller as a one-two punch at center, with perhaps a very few selected minutes at the position for Sully.  And I'd be willing to part with Kelly, give the Wolves a PF or a combo PF/C if they want do whatever will ultimately have to be done to make Kelly a true center on the defensive end.  And, yes, I'm completely aware of Kelly's attributes, from 3-point accuracy to passing ability.  I have to say that I see him as heavy-legged and short-armed, and I see him maxing out as a sort of Brad Lohaus.  I don't believe Brad Lohaus was ever an impact center on a Celtics championship team.

Sam

kdp59 wrote:it is incorrect that I proposed Dieng as a replacement for Sully.

Dieng is an NBA center

Sully is a NBA PF.

I DID propose TRADING Sully ( Of Kelly) for Dieng.

the obvious reason is most think we need a NBA center to move forward. Most here think neither Sully or Kelly can be a long temr option at center.

we cannot expect to keep both Sully and Kelly long term , IF both are NBA starting PF's.

Dieng ( in MY opinion) is one of the best young centers on the league. I understand that opinion may not be shared by others. Everything I read says Minny thinks highly enough of him that they are considering moving Perkovic and keeping Dieng long term.

to get something to improve your team, you have to give something, usually.

so that was my thought process as I say and read about Dieng again today.

as for not comparing his per 36 numbers...most times that is EXACTLY what we do to compare players. Just because the numbers don't work out the way we think, don't make them irrelevant.

so yeah, I WOULD trade Sully and maybe even Cleveland's future first  for Dieng.

MY opinion is that a Celtics roster of
Dieng
Zeller
Kelly
Bass
Green
Wallace
Turner
Bradley
Thornton
Smart
Rondo
Pressey
Young
Fav
Powell

IS a playoff team THIS year in the East.

not only that but Ainge s set up with enough future picks to MOVE up in drafts to get those Smart  type picks. The team is YOUNG and the money is there to give Rondo a max deal (if that's what Ainge is thinking) and still not hamstring the team in the future.

of course I could be wrong and Dieng may be nothing more than an NBA backup for his career. That's why Ainge gets the big bucks and I am writing on a fan message board after all.

Disagree with lots here - but it is a well considered opinion.  Couple of things that jump out to me.

-There are plenty of teams that have less traditional rotations where the so called position you play is less important.  Getting a center in no way means you have to get rid of Kelly or Sully.  Would be nice to have a legit center on this team, but if you trade Sully for Dieng - you potentially solve one issue by creating another (now you have no legit PF)  Kelly is a flex 4/5, he will never be your day to day solution at PF - he is more of a tweaner, who comes in to stretch the floor.  

-There is nothing in his background at Louisville or in Minnesota that says to me that Dieng is a consistent player that you would consider building around.  Continuing to claim that the Timberwolves consider him a better prospect isnt helping your argument - as they are one of the worst evaluators of talent in the NBA (55 million for Ricky Rubio anyone?)  

-As for your use of Per 36 - IMO (and the opinion of many others) that stat is only relevant when used to compare players who are in the same ball park in terms of playing time.  You cannot compare a 19 mpg player and a 32 mpg player and expect the stat to hold up.  Particularly when you have real world stats to compare it to.  In college and the pros, Dieng vs Sullinger is as lopsided as they come.

But to each his own.

thanks for the input everyone...good to have differing thoughts expressed.

mrkleen09 wrote:As for your use of Per 36 - IMO (and the opinion of many others) that stat is only relevant when used to compare players who are in the same ball park in terms of playing time.  You cannot compare a 19 mpg player and a 32 mpg player and expect the stat to hold up.  Particularly when you have real world stats to compare it to.  In college and the pros, Dieng vs Sullinger is as lopsided as they come.

Just one thing I'll add here is that I did point you to an 18-game stretch at the end of last season when Dieng started and played 30 minutes per game, and his stats held up well.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dienggo01/gamelog/2014/

mrkleen09 wrote:

-As for your use of Per 36 - IMO (and the opinion of many others) that stat is only relevant when used to compare players who are in the same ball park in terms of playing time.  You cannot compare a 19 mpg player and a 32 mpg player and expect the stat to hold up.  Particularly when you have real world stats to compare it to.  In college and the pros, Dieng vs Sullinger is as lopsided as they come.

But to each his own.

Yup, Per-36 a very useful stat when comparing players. It acts as an equalizer when comparing players whose total minutes per game are comparatively close. When it is used to compare low minute players to high minute players, you have to believe that the low minute player would average the same per-minute stats if given a higher minute allotment. Why would you believe that? Their coach doesn't believe it.

If a low minute player could play more minutes and maintain his production level (per minute), his coach would play him higher minutes. Maybe it is an older guy who would either break down with higher minutes (the O'Neal's as Celtics) or whose game would suffer with a higher allotment of minutes (KG). Maybe it is a young guy whose playing time is mostly against bench players and whose game would suffer going against starter-level players.

Per-36 (or Per-1, for that matter) stats are a great tool, as long as you understand their limitations.

gyso

/36mpg is useful, I use it all the time, but I think it needs to be kept in context.  Phil Pressey might have impressive numbers /36, for example, but he hasn't played many minutrs (ergo small sample size to extrapolate from) and he often is playing against their bench and not their starters.  Comparing his /36 to a starting PG, therefore, is like comparing summer league stats vs regular season.  Different level of competition and fewer games to base your opinion on.


Hanging out in Hoi An



.

I've seen a lot less of Kelly then most the rest of the board, but I do agree that sully/Kelly is NOT our starting 4/5 combo if we want to contend- just my opionion. But it's also my thought that both can have a large role with us when we are again contenders.. With Sully as the starting 4 and K.O as the backup 4/5.

There are many factors that could be taken into consideration when using basketball stats, including the per 36 stat—considerations that might intervene in the statistical measurement or analysis being conducted.  For example, the following factors could intervene in a comparison between two players based on the more conventional statistics.

• Minutes actually played by each of the two players (being discussed now)

• Whether the preponderance of one player's minutes are in garbage time and most of the other player's minutes are more meaningful

• Matchups

• The systems played by the team of each player who is being compared

• Differences in players' roles

• Defensive assignments, especially if one player's assignment is much more debilitating than another's

• Starting versus coming in cold as a sub

• The exhortations of the home crowd of one player vs. another player

If I spent just a bit time thinking about it, it would be a snap to come up with many other examples.

The large number of potentially intervening variables means that every stat should be regarded within the context of its potential limitations.  I've been preaching that for quite a while.

In statistics, it's always ideal to eliminate as many as "intervening factors" as possible so as to make the context as "pure" as possible.  The per 36 minute stat eliminates one very obvious intervening variable in player stats—the differing number of players' minutes per game. That makes the 36 minute stat more valid than comparing statistics on a per game basis.

If anyone has a way to identify and eliminate some or all of the other intervening variables to improve on the per 36 stat, fine.  I'd love to know about it.  But, for the moment, it's the best combination of providing a more relevant context than the per game stat and being easy to use.

I don't necessarily agree that, "When it is used to compare low minute players to high minute players, you have to believe that the low minute player would average the same per-minute stats if given a higher minute allotment."  There's no predictive component in the per 36 stat.  It just produces comparative numbers.  Conjecturing as to whether a given player would replicate his per-minute performance if granted more minutes is a separate matter—and, as far as I know, a pretty subjective one.

I believe that, if this statistical measure were calculated on a per minute basis rather than a per 36 minute basis, it wouldn't change the nature or degree of any intervening variables, but it might reduce tendencies to become preoccupied with the 36 minute thing.

Ran across this thread late, this kid and Rudy Gorbert were my two hopeful picks for the draft 2 years ago, KO has too many defensive deficiencies in my book, he can't cover either 4 or 5, I hate having to see Sully still defensively have to cover the 5 when paired with KO. Dieng shocked me last year with the numbers that he put up in just his first year, hes raw, but hes very athletic and can give you what you need as a defensive rebounding force with upside. I'd trade KO for him in a second and sweeten it with a pick to get it done.

I am very surprised you feel that way about Per 36 Sam, for many reasons - not the least of which it was developed by your buddy John Hollinger.

Any stat that tries to tell me that Phil Pressey would average the same number of Assists per game as Rajon Rondo, or that Tyler Zeller would score more points per game than Jared Sullinger is one that clearly falls on its face are too numerous to take it seriously in all but the smallest number of cases.

Here is a good article that talks about just one major hole in the Hollinger method

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-hidden-value-of-the-nba-steal/

Would be interesting to see some stats done to calculate player strengths like rebounding (although I do understand it is a team effort) done similar to chess elo/glicko so that it matters who you are doing the rebounding against.