Re: Let's Be Realistic about Rondo

by **Sam** Mon Dec 01, 2014 11:21 am

Dboss, you know you'll never get an argument from me about Asik, although I'm becoming a bit concerned about his durability.

I guess I'm in the minority (what's new?) with respect to anointing Smart as the floor general of the future. I recall having the same reluctance about Avery Bradley as a prospective floor general; but, every time I broached my concerns, all I heard was "But he's such a great defender." Am I experiencing déja vu with Smart?

Frankly, I think Smart would be a better replacement for Avery, who would have definite value as part of a trade (perhaps for a "1"). It's a shame that Smart's been on the shelf because he might otherwise have had an earlier opportunity to show his stuff as the quarterback position.

Sam

by **Outside** Mon Dec 01, 2014 12:58 pm

Is Rondo part Russian? He has the most enigmatic game in the NBA today outside of Roy Hibbert. He leads the league in assists and is 39th in the league in rebounds, but the rest of his game is a mystery.

Imagine what you'd say about any other all-star caliber player who scores 9.3 points per game and shoots 30.0% from the line on a team where he is far and away the best player. His scoring average puts him at no. 156 in the league, behind such notables as Alexe Shved, Timofey Mozgov, and Chris Kaman. Rondo is fifth leading scorer on his own team and is scoring at a lower rate than any season since he was a rookie. I realize scoring isn't his main skill, but he should be able to contribute more in that area instead of putting up lines like he did against the Spurs (two points on 1-5 from the field, 0-2 from the line). His scoring should at least be a secondary asset, not a liability.

But the Celtics' main issue is defense, and that's where Rondo is needed most and has been most disappointing so far. I thought the Celtics had an opportunity to create a suffocating perimeter defense and that Rondo would be the leader of that defense, but so far, that hasn't been the case. Smart's injury certainly hasn't helped, a chunk of the responsibility has to go to the coaches, and maybe they'll get there in March or April, but considering the lack of defensive ability in the post players, it seemed natural to rely on the glut of defensive ability on the perimeter to disrupt the opponent's offense and create turnovers, all with Rondo as the experienced defensive quarterback of that effort. So far, it hasn't happened.

Perhaps it's a function of their tough November schedule and will look better after the comparatively soft December schedule. Perhaps it will just take time. But for a guy with so much talent, intelligence, and experience, Rondo's play is a puzzle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.

by **beat** Mon Dec 01, 2014 1:22 pm

Just another little tidbit re: Rondo

When fouled in the act of shooting...

then shooting 2 fouls shots

His second attempt %

Is .14% ( prior to the SA game)

Think I could shoot that much blindfolded as long as you had me facing the rim.

beat

by **hawksnestbeach** Mon Dec 01, 2014 3:24 pm

I'm with Worcester; let's enjoy this rebuilding year without having a stroke if we lose close games or Rondo goes 1-for-20 from the line. When a meaningful game is on the line, I think he'll will the ball through the net. When we got Smart, I thought he was insurance in case Rondo couldn't be signed for reasonable money. Now I think Sam is right: Smart is more valuable as a 2 or 3. As for Rondo, he's coming back from two injuries, one serious, the other annoying but recent. He's been hurt before, too, and knows he isn't immortal. Say his body can take 150 more hard blows before he's done; do we really want him to take half of them this season? Or as few as possible in a rebuilding year? Regardless of one's view of Rondo, most concede he is intelligent and I think he is taking an intelligent approach to the season. Work on the things that will bear fruit in a year or two and tune out the rest. Hawk

by **k_j_88** Mon Dec 01, 2014 4:18 pm

People have known for years that Rondo isn't really an elite scorer. I see no point to have beef with that reality now. The Celtics, as constructed, will be competitive in most games but ultimately will lose a majority of them. I think that coaching flaws have every bit as much to do with the struggles as personnel does.

Build a team with more scorers. Make a trade for an elite piece. That's how championship teams do it. What championship team out there has won with only 1 All-Star caliber player in recent memory?

KJ

by **NYCelt** Mon Dec 01, 2014 4:30 pm

Rondo remains among the most talented point guards in the game today.

Although his shooting %, and especially FT %, are lower than one would like to see, for the most part he's delivering exactly what the team's current style of play and roster calls for.

He's not the guy on offense, mostly because he's not supposed to be the guy.

Rondo is capable of driving and slashing his way to the rim and increasing his point total, if that's what some want to see, but that doesn't exactly lead to anything close to a balanced attack.

His stregths outweigh his weaknesses as long as you have some other talent to work with. Unfortunately, the best of our other talent is no better than second team talent right now, although Smart may eventually be able to prove otherwise.

As Worcester said, patience. This will change. We shall see. Rondo is the centerpiece without a doubt. You either build around him or use him in trade to rebuild. Despite constant rumor, my guess is most teams will shy away from dealing for him since he becomes a free agent soon. I think we end up signing him rather than watching him walk and get left with nothing.

EDIT; KJ, I posted this before seeing your post. I would agree that I don't get the problem with Rondo's scoring now since he is what he always has been. You seem to be saying build piece by piece. You've got the point guard, now find a way to get a scorer. At least that's the way I interpret you.

by **k_j_88** Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:56 pm

NYCelt,

Yes, that pretty much sums up my perspective. And another point I'd emphasize is to sure up the center position should Zeller not seem to pan out in that role.

Once you add the next major piece, it becomes easier to fill in around the centerpieces.

KJ

by **mrkleen09** Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:14 pm

k_j_88 wrote:People have known for years that Rondo isn't really an elite scorer. I see no point to have beef with that reality now. The Celtics, as constructed, will be competitive in most games but ultimately will lose a majority of them. I think that coaching flaws have every bit as much to do with the struggles as personnel does.

Build a team with more scorers. Make a trade for an elite piece. That's how championship teams do it. What championship team out there has won with only 1 All-Star caliber player in recent memory?

KJ

Very well said. To take it further. How many teams build a championship team through tanking and getting a load of high picks in the draft? None.

Danny already showed us the blueprint. Gather picks and players, bundle the most attractive combination and go make a deal for an established player or players. Fill in around them with your core young guys and veterans looking to play with winners.

I have questions about whether Rondo will still be an elite player when that time comes for the team to make their push - but I think the next 3 months will be telling. If he isnt stepping up and taking charge, I think it is time to think about getting as much as you can for him now before he walks and you get nothing.

by **cowens/oldschool** Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:40 pm

Not that they tanked, but the Thunder sucked and lucked into Ibaka, Durant and Westbrook, then made trades around that nucleus....Toronto and Golden State also mostly built through the draft.

On Rondo, he is nowhere near the player that killed the Cavs in the 2010 playoff run, will we ever see that dynamic player again? right now I realize hes coming back from a serious injury, but hes losing parts of his game similar to Antoine Walker, hope he can get it back.

by **mrkleen09** Mon Dec 01, 2014 6:52 pm

And none of those 3 teams have won anything yet.....maybe one of them will prove me wrong this year, but in my eyes the road still goes through San Antonio in the West and Chicago and Cleveland in the East.

by **cowens/oldschool** Mon Dec 01, 2014 7:37 pm

Agreed Kleen, how are you? San Antonio and Chicago also built their teams primarily through the draft, Duncan, Ginoblli, Parker and Noah, Rose and the emerging Jimmy Butler. You still need to make wise draft choices and maybe you can get lucky and find the right trading partner. The Knicks and Lakers I'm sure tried their hardest to assemble a better team, but what trade or signing was out there? Were really lucky Kevin McHale helped steer KG our way in 07-08.

On another note I'm noticing if you have the right bigs, and they don't have to be perfect, just effective enough, you can assemble the other parts around them, even if the other parts are not all star caliber, you can still contend....like the Memphis Grizzlies. I can't help but wonder how much fun it would be if we had drafted Sam's choice Noah to play in the paint with Big Al and Perk...then let Danny assemble the rest or keep Pierce, Rondo, TA, Delonte. Maybe Pierce and Delonte would be gone by now, but I would have loved to see those 3 rotate and create havoc in the paint.

by **worcester** Mon Dec 01, 2014 8:38 pm

KJ, if Zeller pans out it will be as a backup center, and that will be good for us. I bet he does, and we still need a #1 center.

by **Shamrock1000** Tue Dec 02, 2014 5:49 pm

Interesting to hear people's take on this. I would have thought a careful analysis of Rondo's assists this season would have taken the air out of the "but he had 3 hall of famers playing with him...." argument. Still, Rondo is a tricky player to evaluate. There are the assists, the insane rebounding for a guard, and the eye test that clearly tells me he sees the game and the floor in a special way. Yet he is not a great scorer, and his FT's are incomprehensibly bad. And scoring is the most basic event in the game. His FT% alone pretty much nullifies a Max-deal in my mind, but do we really give up someone of his abilities because he is "not the man". I have yet to see a realistic trade scenario I would accept for Rondo - Durant, for sure, Asik and spare parts, get outta here...

by **Shamrock1000** Tue Dec 02, 2014 5:53 pm

bobheckler wrote:I have written this 4X now only to have my Wi-Fi drop and lose it. My frustration level was approaching medical levels inappropriate in a country with 3rd world medical facilities so I've typed it into a memo and am cutting-and-pasting it, hoping I can post it on the odd moment the local Internet decides to show up for work. We'll see how many times I have to try before it happens. Welcome to Bagan, Myanmar, a government-designated archeological zone that is famous for its 3rd century BC artifacts and 12th century pagodas but not for the reliability of its infrastructure. Surprisingly, at least one of the local restaurants makes quite credible Roman-style pizza.

Rondo is a facilitator. He makes other players better and every other player in the league knows it. He isn't, however, "the man" who is going to say "climb on my backs, boys" like Cornbread did and be able to back it up. His weaknesses in scoring from the field and the line deny him that.

Rondo's greatest value to this team, in my opinion, is two-fold: 1) He makes his teammates look good which improves their trade value and 2) He is Danny's bait for another big fish.

Let's consider life without Rondo:

1. He is traded for another all-star. The 3 Amigos set the current league bar, you need to have 3 all-stars to feel strongly about your chances (one could argue the Spurs set it first, but Ginobili is a step down from Duncan and Parker, imo). LeBron validated that when he left Cleveland, because he realized that, even if the single all-star is at the top of the pyramid like he is, one is not enough. If Rondo is replaced with another all-star we are still stuck at one. A cha-cha, so to speak. Furthermore, consider the motivation of our trading partner. Are they trading an all-star in their prime and with years left on his contract, or one who could walk soon (e.g. Kevin Love) and leave us at the altar without Rondo or a valuable replacement to build around. Would a player of that caliber agree to re-sign with a club where they are the only all-star or would they leave in pursuit of a team that already is positioned to go deep into the playoffs and his addition might put them over the top?

2. Rondo is traded for a key much-needed role player who isn't an all-star. Just to tug on Sam's heart strings, let's say Omer Asik. That would certainly fix a problem we have, it would allow players to play competitively at their appropriate positions but it would take away their facilitator, their supercharger. We'd gain the paint defender but we'd lose our general. Pressey and/or Smart could conceivably step up but Phil is an even weaker scorer than Rondo and Smart has a long way to go to become an NBA point guard. Furthermore, we would then be without an all-star. What all-star, who isn't on his back nine or damaged goods, would want to come to a team where he is it and the burden of being "the man" falls squarely on his shoulders? Trading Rondo for a non-all-star would, in my opinion, make Danny's job of landing a high value free agent VERY difficult.

Rondo's weaknesses, warts and all, are on display when he is on the court and expected to be "the man" but if does the the two things I mentioned in my prelude, he can still be "the man" for the Celtics.

bob

.

Nicely summarized. Couldn't agree more...

by **kdp59** Tue Dec 02, 2014 6:31 pm

Shamrock1000 wrote:Interesting to hear people's take on this. I would have thought a careful analysis of Rondo's assists this season would have taken the air out of the "but he had 3 hall of famers playing with him...." argument. Still, Rondo is a tricky player to evaluate. There are the assists, the insane rebounding for a guard, and the eye test that clearly tells me he sees the game and the floor in a special way. Yet he is not a great scorer, and his FT's are incomprehensibly bad. And scoring is the most basic event in the game. His FT% alone pretty much nullifies a Max-deal in my mind, but do we really give up someone of his abilities because he is "not the man". I have yet to see a realistic trade scenario I would accept for Rondo - Durant, for sure, Asik and spare parts, get outta here...

so then we are back to the question of WHAT is Rondo worth on a new contract?

I think most here say keep him, but at less than max deal (read $18-20M per year).

for me his top dollar value is $12-14M per year....any more and his dollars keep you from getting that "A" guy. and without "that guy" there is no chance at being an elite team.

Unless Ainge knows already that Rondo will accept a hometown discount to stay in Boston, then he has no choice but to do one of two things.

A) sign Rondo for the max deal he says he wants.

B) trade him for the best deal he can get by the trade deadline.

by **Sam** Tue Dec 02, 2014 6:41 pm

Shamrock and kdp, I'm not arguing either way...simply asking your opinions. To go back to the question of whether Rondo is likely to be a major foundation on which to build for the future, what are your feelings?

Thanks.

Sam

by **Shamrock1000** Wed Dec 03, 2014 12:04 pm

Sam,

I guess I am inclined to keep him. In my mind, I do not see Rondo as "the guy the Celtics will build around", but rather as part of a core of players they will build around. I have no idea who else will be part of that core, but at least they have one component of it. I also still think intelligent good players would want to play with Rondo, so having him facilitates getting additional core parts. Without Rondo, the climb from the bottom seems a lot longer and a lot steeper.

kdp,

I agree he shouldn't get the max, but I'm not sure it boils down to "get him to take a hometown discount or trade him". In other words, I'm not sure anyone will offer him the Max. Rondo is a strange player who's game is not easily quantified - combine that fact with his terrible FT% and lack of scoring, and I'm not so sure anyone else will offer him the max. Of course, I could be entirely wrong on this....

by **Outside** Wed Dec 03, 2014 12:08 pm

His agent may convince him he's worth a max contract, and I could see a scenario where he takes it personally if the Celtics don't offer the max and takes the same the Celtics offer (or less) elsewhere out of pride and spite.

by **Shamrock1000** Wed Dec 03, 2014 12:12 pm

Outside wrote:His agent may convince him he's worth a max contract, and I could see a scenario where he takes it personally if the Celtics don't offer the max and takes the same the Celtics offer (or less) elsewhere out of pride and spite.

Yeah, definitely....I guess I am just hoping his agent senses he won't get a max deal, and has advised him accordingly. The problem though, is how can the Celtics know what Rondo's camp is thinking???

by **Sam** Wed Dec 03, 2014 1:12 pm

I guess I'm just hard-headed. I've always operated under the assumption that, approaching a salary negotiation (in any business) involves a two-step process:

1. Determine the future worth of the employee to the FUNCTIONALITY of the organization.

2. Subject the functional utility of the employee to a determination of what he's worth financially.

Can somebody please tell me why Rondo @ $12,000,000 a year will be worth more to the FUNCTIONALITY of the Celtics than Rondo @ $18,000,000 a year. Will he play better @ $12,000,000 than @ $18,000,000? Will he be a better leader at $12,000,000 than @ $18,000,000?

I know enough about the CBA to understand that it's advisable to hoard as much cap space as possible. I truly know about that. Believe me! But, suppose Rondo lets the Celtics know he'd be amenable to a hometown discount. (Yeah, that'll happen!) Would it really be advisable to re-sign him mainly because he'd give them a discount but would retain the same warts that keep him from being "worth" a max contract? Is that the kind of decision-making priority that will lead the Celtics, once again, to the Promised Land?

I agree that rebuilding around one player is a rather ridiculous notion, because basketball is a team sport, and rebuilding is ideally done around a multi-player core of strength. However, the floor general of a team—even a shoot-first floor general (if that's not an oxymoron)—is in the one position that has greatest influence on all the other four positions in the offensive end. That's why I refuse to use the term "point guard" in deference to "floor general" to reinforce the pervasive influence a player at the "1" position has.

Sam

by **Outside** Wed Dec 03, 2014 1:26 pm

Sam,

Rondo has the same functionality to the team regardless of his salary, but so does everyone. Phil Pressey has the same functionality at $18 million that he does at $800,000.

As you well know, the point is to allocate the limited salary pie appropriately while building a team that works from a basketball standpoint (functionally). That's what the two steps you listed do.

Rondo's functionality is the same regardless of his salary, but it makes no sense to pay him $18 million if his relative worth to the functionality of the team is $12 million.

by **Shamrock1000** Wed Dec 03, 2014 1:33 pm

Well, the obvious answer as to why a 12,000,000 dollar Rondo is better for the functionality of the Celtics is that the 6,000,000 difference could be used to sign additional talent. However, I am quite sure you get this, so I'm not sure exactly what the question is? Are you saying that if a team can only give one (or at the most two) max deals, then the deal should go to a "floor general", and thus, given Rondo's "warts", he should not be given a max deal and subsequently should no longer be in our plans?

Perhaps it would help to distinguish a "floor general" from a pg. Does the floor general handle the ball most of the time, and is thus simply an excellent pg, or is the "floor general" the team leader/alpha dog (e.g. MJ, Bird). Also, if Rondo goes, who are some people you would like as floor general, and are they realistically available in any way?

Btw - I don't think Rondo will take a hometown discount, I'm just not sure anyone will offer him the max due to the shortcomings discussed here and elsewhere.

by **Sam** Wed Dec 03, 2014 2:50 pm

Shamrock,

What I'm saying is that there's so much conjecture about what Rondo is worth financially, but I see much less discussion about what he's worth functionally for the future. Signing him at a lower price won't make him worth more functionally to the team. Why sign him at ANY price and give him the bulk of the time at his position if he's not worth it functionally? And, if he's worth it functionally and is better for this rebuilding team than any other player at his position would be, why not give him the max?

It just seems strange to see him missing free throws and making turnovers in the clutch but seeing conjecture about his future focused mainly on money. As far as I'm concerned, it's not primarily money that's the issue. It's VALUE that is the issue, and value is a function of product quality and money in any enterprise.

Just a personal quirk I guess.

Sam

by **Sam** Wed Dec 03, 2014 3:42 pm

Outside,

So are you saying that the reasons why Rondo might be worth "only" (a hypothetical) $12 million rather the a max salary are not significant enough to cast doubt on his future functional value to the team? I'm talking about priorities. I believe the priority in popular discussions about the future of Rondo has become salary; and I believe the priority, instead, should be functionality first and—only then—salary. Obviously, alternatives are always an issue; but I believe they, too, should be considered first on the basis of functionality and only secondarily salary.

I hope the Celtics aren't keeping Phil Pressey because he makes only a small salary. If so, I'd like to apply for his job, and I'd give them a discount they wouldn't believe. I hope they feel Phil has functional value. And only then is it appropriate to see how little they can get away with paying him.

As a fan, I view my role to be largely about player (and coaching) functionality. I've posted lately about being on the fence about Rondo's appropriateness as the floor general of the near future for this team. My deliberations are based solely on how he performs, not how much he makes.

I'm not saying that financials don't matter. Of course they matter. But I continue to wonder why the discussed desirability of a player at such a pivotal position would be so dependent on the salary he makes rather than on the functionality he represents. After this many years, I think the odds are that his free throw shooting and other warts won't be resolved only if they get him at a bargain price.

Sam

by **swish** Wed Dec 03, 2014 4:48 pm

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=per_minute&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=2014&year_max=2014&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&shoot_hand=&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&birth_state=&college_id=&is_active=&debut_yr_nba_start=&debut_yr_nba_end=&debut_yr_aba_start=&debut_yr_aba_end=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&award=&pos_is_g=Y&qual=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=1800&c2stat=ast_per_g&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=mp_per_g&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=mp

I'm not a big fan of the individual assist numbers and rank it far behind scoring and rebounding as to its impact on a teams success. Rondo's calling card is his ability to put up big numbers in the assist column. But in no way is this skill worth 15-20 million dollars. Success in the nba revolves around having 2 or more elite players on the roster that excel in scoring and\ or rebounding. And that's where the big bucks go. Rondo was a perfect fit for the 2007-08 club. $1.2 million salary,6.1 assist and 12.7 pts per game. The non scoring floor general catering to the expensive elite big 3. In the above link the players were required to have played at least 1800 minutes last year( that places a player in the top 5 0r 6 0n a roster). I sorted by ast. per game then using those players with 5.0 or more ast. per game ( that's the top 34 players) I then checked the current salary level for each player that averaged under16 pts. per game last year (A figure that Rondo fits into quite comfortably) There were 10 players with an average current salary of 4.8 million per year-- a high of 8.3 million and low of 2.5 million.
The 10 players whose salaries were used were players numbered--- 2,7,15,17,18,22,27,31,33,34

swish

by Sponsored content