How Danny Ainge's Draft Pick Hoarding Can Pay off Again for Boston Celtics

How Danny Ainge's Draft Pick Hoarding Can Pay off Again for Boston Celtics
Zach Buckley
Jan 14, 2015







Boston Celtics team president Danny Ainge has been around the NBA long enough to know it's far better to be really bad than pretty good—or anything in between.

That's why the executive signed off on a demolition project that has taken the Celtics from championship contention to being another team hoping to hit a draft-lottery jackpot.

Only, the Celtics aren't conducting business like their fellow cellar dwellers. Rather, they are in a controlled nosedive, set up to reverse trajectory as soon as the right opportunity arises.

Ainge has traveled this path before. He knows how rewarding it can be. In case he needs a reminder of the potential prize awaiting him, he can just look up at the 2008 championship banner hanging from the TD Garden rafters.

Armed with a similar set of rebuilding tools, the Celtics have the same worst-to-first potential through a combination of shrewd drafting, savvy dealing and smart free-agent signings.



Ainge's First Rags-to-Riches Journey



CHARLES KRUPA/Associated Press

Creativity didn't lead the basketball world to dub Ainge as Trader Danny. Like so many great nicknames, it was born from nothing more than an observation.

Ainge grabbed the reins of the Celtics organization in May 2003. It took him all of about three years to completely overhaul the roster. Of the 19 players who suited up for Boston in 2003-04, only two remained with the team in 2006-07: Paul Pierce and Kendrick Perkins.

Ainge did then what he is doing now—swap out veterans for draft picks and prospects. He grabbed a first-round pick by dealing away Antoine Walker and Tony Delk, then another in a three-team trade involving Mike James and Chris Mills. Ainge turned Chucky Atkins, Jumaine Jones and Chris Mihm into a future first-round pick, then somehow did the same with Jiri Welsch.

The Celtics paid some on-court costs for this flurry of moves, as their win total went from 45 in 2004-05 to only 24 two years later. But Ainge had quietly assembled an intriguing young core, headlined by preps-to-pros leapers Al Jefferson and Gerald Green.


Rocky Widner/Getty Images

Ainge didn't have a championship core, but he had given himself the tools to construct one. With his cupboard packed to the brim, he waited for his moment to come.

In 2007, he brokered two fortune-altering deals. First, he packaged Jeff Green, Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and a future second-round pick for Ray Allen and Glen Davis. Then, Ainge cashed in his remaining assets—including Green, Jefferson and two first-round picks—to pry Kevin Garnett away from the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Behind Pierce, Allen and Garnett, Boston ripped off 66 wins en route to the 2008 world title. Had injuries not held Garnett out of the 2009 playoffs or sidelined Perkins in the 2010 NBA Finals, the Celtics could have added to their jewelry collection.

But Ainge had done his part, proving himself capable of building a champion from the ground up. And Trader Danny has the tools to again fashion something out of nothing.



Boston's New Army of Assets



Brian Babineau/Getty Images

The disbanding of Boston's banner-raising group started with Allen's free-agency departure in 2012. While the rest of the core has since followed the sharpshooter out the door, it was his exit that could have caused Ainge the most grief.

That isn't due to any sentimental attachments to the sniper or the fact that Allen was the first to go. Rather, it's because Ainge had to watch Allen leave and received nothing in return.

The executive wouldn't let that happen again.

The Celtics landed a 2015 unprotected first-round pick from the Los Angeles Clippers for Doc Rivers. Ainge then sent Pierce and Garnett to the Brooklyn Nets for a package that included three first-round picks (2014, 2016 and 2018), plus the right to swap first-rounders in 2017.

Ainge got two picks out of the Dallas Mavericks for Rajon Rondo (a first-rounder in 2015 and second-rounder in 2016), then one more first-round pick from the Phoenix Suns for Brandan Wright (who Boston acquired in the Rondo deal).

The Celtics picked up a future first-rounder from the Memphis Grizzlies for Jeff Green in a deal that also brought back Austin Rivers. The scoring guard is now reportedly on his way to join his father, Doc, in L.A., and for yet another second-round pick, per Steve Bulpett of the Boston Herald.

A lot of Boston's incoming picks are protected, meaning some could be delayed or eventually turn into second-round selections. That makes it tough to say exactly which and how many assets the Celtics now own, though, Celtics.com's Marc D'Amico painted as clear a picture as can be:

The C’s currently possess the rights to as many as 12 first-round picks in the next four drafts, including up to eight in the next two drafts. The final number of first-rounders that Boston will own is dependent upon conditions that are attached to many of the picks. Those conditions will also affect the number of second-round picks the Celtics will own over the next few drafts, but suffice to say, they own a lot of them.



Charles Krupa/Associated Press

While it's nearly impossible to imagine the Celtics keeping all of these picks, that doesn't necessarily mean there are too many of them.

"Draft picks are always tradeable; players are not," Ainge explained, per Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe. "Draft picks are always assets until sometimes they're drafted, until they become players, or until they become paid. I don't believe [you can have too many], no."

Ainge's asset collection doesn't stop with picks, either.

This roster features a boatload of recent first-round picks, including: Marcus Smart, Jared Sullinger, Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk and James Young. All of those players are under 25 years old, as is developing glue guy Jae Crowder.

And because so many of these players are earning rookie-scale wages, the Celtics are flush with cap space. They could have "as much as $30 million" of it this summer, per WEEI's Ben Rohrbach.

If a recipe for a quick fix exists, Boston already owns its key ingredients: picks, prospects and financial flexibility.



The Blueprint for Boston's Next Playoff Run



Josh Reynolds/Associated Press

Assuming Ainge is done dealing (or close to finished), this roster has two immediate areas of concern: wing depth and rim protection.

The Celtics should be able to address at least one of those voids in the upcoming draft. Boston might opt to fill the latter with two Kentucky products promising to bolster the frontcourt: athletic 7-footers Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein. Towns has the higher ceiling of the two, so he would be the preferred pick.

With their other pick, the Celtics could take a flier on someone like Michigan's Caris LeVert. He would at least another trade chip, if not a permanent rotation piece.

The Celtics aren't likely to ink a big name next summer, but they still need to come away with something. As Bleacher Report's Brian Robb explained, Boston has a few tricks up its sleeve to attack the second-tier crop:

Teams have the right to match any contract restricted free agents sign on the open market, but Boston’s array of draft picks gives them the option of enticing teams into sign-and-trades. A future first-round pick or two may be enough to coax a team with a high payroll to send one of their young free agents Boston’s way. ...
The Celtics also have a useful building tool with their trade exceptions. Ainge landed a $12.9 million exception in the Rondo deal and just added a $5 million one after shipping Wright to Phoenix. ...
For a franchise looking to trade an expensive player, the Celtics could absorb said contract while sending out significant draft-pick compensation in return.

Armed with that information, the Celtics could take a long look at Orlando Magic forward Tobias Harris.

The 22-year-old is set to become a restricted free agent, and Orlando could view him as a key piece of its young core. But the Magic might have a hard time resisting adding a pick to further their rebuilding efforts, especially if it means creating more floor time for high-flying rookie Aaron Gordon.


Fernando Medina/Getty Images

That makes Harris Boston's big splash of this summer, but the Celtics could also take some low-risk fliers on K.J. McDaniels, Kevin Seraphin and/or Kosta Koufos. Boston would still be young, even more athletic and a potential force on the defensive end.

The Celtics are likely to have four first-round picks in 2016: their own, Brooklyn's, Dallas' (top-seven protected, if unused in 2015) and Cleveland's (top-10 protected). By packaging a few together, Boston could climb the draft board and perhaps walk away with two premier players.

For now, the Celtics only have Smart's $8.2 million salary on the books for 2016-17, plus a few more rookie deals and a likely raise for Sullinger (and maybe Tyler Zeller). Even taking into account their 2015 free-agent haul, Boston should have a ton of breathing room—in the same summer the new TV money kicks in, perhaps pushing the salary cap north of $90 million, per Grantland's Zach Lowe.

Now, it's time for Ainge to go big-game hunting. The 2016 class could include Love, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard, Mike Conley, Al Horford, Joakim Noah and Andre Drummond, among others.

Not to kill any dreams here, but it seems unlikely the Celtics would have a shot at James, Durant or Davis. Now that James has gone back home, logic says he probably stays there. If Durant wants out of OKC, his next stop could be a return to the nation's capitol. And Davis is already professing his love for the Big Easy, according to Yahoo Sports' Marc J. Spears, so he might not be a flight risk.

But if the other names listed above are "consolation prizes," it's probably the first and only time they will be looked at as such. The Celtics would be glad to land any of those players, but Love (who was a target of Ainge last summer, per the Boston Globe's Gary Washburn) might be the best fit.


Mike Lawrie/Getty Images

Love is having one of the worst seasons of his career, and he's still one of only four players averaging 17 points, 10 rebounds and two assists.

Think the Celtics could sniff out a playoff spot with a starting five of Smart, Bradley, Harris, Love and Towns? Look at what they could be bringing off the bench by that point: Sullinger, Young, LeVert, McDaniels, Olynyk, Crowder, Zeller/Seraphin/Koufos and whomever they pull from the 2015 draft.

Ainge would still have plenty of pieces left to open the door to the trade market. At that point, the possibilities are almost endless—which is the reason Ainge is addicted to draft picks.

"In a word, what Ainge has done is genius," wrote Basketball Insiders' Moke Hamilton. "He has traded away each and every asset that his team had and has fully embraced rebuilding. The team has a war chest of future draft picks and has put itself in good position to rebuild, and quickly."

Ainge has a full grasp on the state of this franchise. He understands exactly where it is, where it needs to go and how it can get there.

It might look bleak now, but the future in Boston is blindingly bright. Again.





bob



.

This is a pretty well written piece. The names may change, but the blueprint is there.

Agreed. Thanks for posting this. Good article. Hopefully works out that way.

-V

I agree that the plan is very sound and that it is likely the way Ainge will go. I see no way that he decides to keep all of these draft picks and rebuild only through drafting as many young guys as he has picks.

My only hope is that there are not too many of the older/bad contract guys added to the Celtics roster to make deals happen.

I've always trusted Danny's basketball acumen. He could have made a great accountant too.

yep, but like I've been saying IF Ainge wats to be a player in next years FA class he can be.

$25M under the cap is realisitc (the article says $30M is POSSIBLE).

now what if M. Gasol's camp lets Ainge know that he'd be interested in being the centerpiece of the new Celtic championship?

are you telling me Ainge would pass?

I do agree thats it is more likely that one (or more) non MAX FA's will be the target.

I like Reggie Jackson more than T. Harris, but both are RFA's who Danny could make a serious run for. Though Orlando is in much betetr cap shape to just match any offer for Harris then Okc seems to be.


it is going to be an interesting off-season and this rebuild may not be near as long as many thought right after the Rondo trade.

Danny seems to be following the same path as before. As such, he may have to take on some older/bad contract guys. How else will he be able to match salaries when he does decide to pull the trigger on trades?

Theo Ratliff comes to mind. I don't think he even played for us the time we had him under contract. I do believe he played some after the trade with Minny.

gyso

gyso wrote:Danny seems to be following the same path as before.  As such, he may have to take on some older/bad contract guys.  How else will he be able to match salaries when he does decide to pull the trigger on trades?  

Theo Ratliff comes to mind.  I don't think he even played for us the time we had him under contract.  I do believe he played some after the trade with Minny.

gyso

Gyso - Can't he match salaries using the trade exceptions?? I thought that was the point of having them?? However, I am by no means a cap expert, so I could be way off. Perhaps someone more knowledgeable could clarify?

Shamrock1000 wrote:

gyso wrote:Danny seems to be following the same path as before.  As such, he may have to take on some older/bad contract guys.  How else will he be able to match salaries when he does decide to pull the trigger on trades?  

Theo Ratliff comes to mind.  I don't think he even played for us the time we had him under contract.  I do believe he played some after the trade with Minny.

gyso

Gyso - Can't he match salaries using the trade exceptions?? I thought that was the point of having them?? However, I am by no means a cap expert, so I could be way off. Perhaps someone more knowledgeable could clarify?

Actually, yes.  Good point.  TPEs can be used to match salaries, with some restrictions.  Outgoing TPE's cannot be aggregated with (or added to) other TPEs to get a higher salaried player back.  Aggregated is the word they use.

Actual outgoing salaries can be aggregated with (or added to) other actual salaries to get a higher salaried player back.

You can also use TPEs and actual salaries to get a higher salaried player back. To see an example how, read here:

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q85

gyso

Don't worry about the Celtics long term future. Danny's got all the bases covered. He has or will have multiple ways to go including cap space, and tpe's and mucho draft picks for rookie selection purposes or to be used as trading chips. Present team results are irrelevant just like they were in 2005-06 and 2006-07. Don't get caught up in the doom and gloom of the here and now. Rebuilding is all about the future.

swish

swish wrote:Don't worry about the Celtics long term future. Danny's got all the bases covered. He has or will have multiple ways to go including cap space, and tpe's and mucho draft picks for rookie selection purposes or to be used as trading chips.    Present team results are irrelevant just like they were in 2005-06 and 2006-07. Don't get caught up in the doom and gloom of the here and now. Rebuilding is all about the future.

swish

Swish,

I agree. I also believe that he has even more tools in his belt this time around. More picks for sure. I don't know if TPEs existed the last time around.

One thing that I remember from the 2006-07 team (losses and all) was that they were a fun bunch of players to watch. They seemed to hang around each game, ahead or behind by only a small margin until the fourth quarter. When they would lose the game in the end, Cousy would say, "They just don't have the horses."

This team is similar in that they are usually fun to watch. We were thisclose in the Hawks game until it kinda fell apart, after the Hawks had won 9 in a row and are currently on top of the standings in the East? Who expected our rag-tag bunch of newbies and end of the rotation vets would even compete with them for as long as we did?

gyso

Just a quick note

Presently there are 12 teams in the NBA with 16 wins or less.

Of all of these teams which team has the best shot to make a serious run at a title the soonest........

Brooklyn..16 wins
Philly....7
Knicks....6
Detroit...14
Charlotte..15
Orlando...15
Indy....15
Minn...6
Lakers....12
Sacramento....16
Utah...13

and ourselves with 13

Even with perhaps more different starting lineups than Robert Hall has suits, we still are playing quite competitively and have very few blowouts.

Think we are in better shape than any of the aforementioned teams and looking down a 2-3 year road, better than some of the teams with more wins.

patience

seeds are being planted takes a while before they will bear fruit.

beat

Beat

As of TODAY I think that Detroit, Orlando and Utah have a little head start on us. But that can, and probably will change, by the end of this summer. A major move here and a major move there and it can all change in a heart beat. (No pun intended)

Swish

Building for the future is why "now" is so very important.  I believe that is imperative that the Cs build a 'way to play' mentality in the last half of this season.  They may already being doing this.  Stevens also needs to develop a winning type of coaching 'way' as well.

Re-defining a "Celtics way to play" based on hustle, team first, no complaining, togetherness, improving daily type of thing is going to make coming to Boston more attractive to potential free agents and sign and trade guys.  Stevens and his staff will have to be a big part of this as well.

It only makes sense that the more that can be done to make coming to Boston more attractive now is very important.  Money is important to every player for sure as most of them seem to judge their individual worth by how much money they are making, but would you rather go to the Knicks or Nets next year or come to Boston if the salaries are close to equal after seeing the Celtics on the good. solid road to recovery?

Stevens and his staff does a good job teaching the game's physical skills as every player who was on last year's team and played this year have all improved individually.  This is great, but now I think that he needs to shorten the rotation somewhat (at least right after the trade deadline) and give the minutes to the guys who can best help win every game.  Free agents will likely not want to join a 10-11 man rotation as much as they would like to get major minutes every night in efforts to win every night.

The players need to keep following Crowder's full bore approach to playing hard ALL the time and holding the players totally accountable.   It will make the Cs more attractive if there already is such a climate in place rather than wait till some new guy joins the team next summer to make this happen.  It may also attract the free agent guy who is not already a rah-rah, 100 MPH type of guy as he may be comfortable that he does not have to come to Boston to set the tone and carry the entire team on his back in every aspect of the game.  It is a shame, but still is the truth that some guys have lots of talent, but would much prefer to not have to lead in this day and age.

This next statement could easily go into one of the already existing Crowder threads, but this guy should get a raise at the end of this season even if he does not average 10 points per game in his time in Boston this year.  He might be the most important player on the team right now and for the rest of the year as far as building for next year.

The blueprint must have changed because I don't see any superstars currently. At least Pierce was around last time.

I'm having difficulty putting absolute faith and confidence into Danny's "plan." To be perfectly honest, I think it's time for some fresh blood in the GM position. Is Danny really a genius? I don't know, and perhaps we'll never know. But as I'm analyzing his various transactions, I'm becoming more and more convinced that he was just someone who happened to get lucky once and is now riding the coattails of prior success without much opposition.


KJ

KJ, the good news for us Danny fans is that he will be around for years to watch his plan unfold, and you'll have a chance to see whether or not your judgment was correct. If he wins, you lose, but you'll get to enjoy a great Celtics team once again. If he loses, your judgment will have proven to be right.

worcester wrote:KJ, the good news for us Danny fans is that he will be around for years to watch his plan unfold, and you'll have a chance to see whether or not your judgment was correct. If he wins, you lose, but you'll get to enjoy a great Celtics team once again.  If he loses, your judgment will have proven to be right.

I'm certainly not saying that a successful outcome is impossible at this juncture, but I am cautioning people against trying to draw too many parallels between the current situation and the one prior to the title run. I think that can provide a false sense of hope in the context of "well this is just like last time, so the plan must be working."

KJ

Paul Pierce was a big free agent talent magnet, no doubt.

I don't know about anyone else, but many of the moves (especially the minor moves to clear cap and/or roster space) that Danny has made have surprised me. The name "Zeller" comes to mind. For that matter, the name "Crowder" comes to mind. It's obvious that major moves are not nearly as common as minor ones; but it wouldn't shock me if Danny surprised me with a major move or two over the next 12 months or so. Because Danny and his extended family of advisers have a fund of knowledge well beyond what we possess and judgment of talent that we possess.

So, while it's fun to kibitz as Danny goes about his business, and while it's important to keep up-to-date with every move he makes, we're all throwing darts about the future because we really have no more than semi-wild guesses as to how to connect the dots.

Go Danny, and go Celtics!

Sam

KJ

" I'm analyzing his various transactions, I'm becoming more and more convinced that he was just someone who happened to get lucky once and is now riding the coattails of prior success without much opposition."

For the record, what would you be doing if you were the general manager?

swish

wide clyde
Quoting you below.
"Building for the future is why "now" is so very important.  I believe that is imperative that the Cs build a 'way to play' mentality in the last half of this season.  They may already being doing this.  Stevens also needs to develop a winning type of coaching 'way' as well."
 When they have a roster capable of playing well enough to be a serious contender for the championship is when I'll be concerned about all the fine points that go into being a champ. Over the next 2 or 3 years I would expect to see many players come  and go before the pieces to the puzzle are all in place.

swish

Sam
Sam

Quoting you below'

"So, while it's fun to kibitz as Danny goes about his business, and while it's important to keep up-to-date with every move he makes, we're all throwing darts about the future because we really have no more than semi-wild guesses as to how to connect the dots."

I'll buy into that. Being an amateur spectator Coach and General Manager are not very good credentials to support my opinions. I yield to Danny and the rest of the Celtic organization who certainly have a hellava lot more knowledge to base their decisions on.

swish

Swish,

Just so it's clear, my comment was not at all directed at you or anyone else. It was simply a commentary born of the fact that I believe it's quite a phenomenon that a bunch of people want to invest so much of their energy and intensity on a game you and I played in short pants.

Sam

swish wrote:KJ

" I'm analyzing his various transactions, I'm becoming more and more convinced that he was just someone who happened to get lucky once and is now riding the coattails of prior success without much opposition."

For the record, what would you be doing if you were the general manager?

swish

This is somewhat of a difficult question to answer. For the record, I wouldn't have traded the star players. But to answer your question in the context of the here and now, I'd do a couple things:

1. I'd hire some better scouts to help with the drafting process. What good is a boatload of draft picks if you have more misses than hits?

2. I'd look at hiring some assistants with more NBA experience than the current ones. Stevens still appears to be struggling and I think he needs a bit of guidance in order to learn how to lead this team better.


Sam,

All good points on your end. Of course, any and all speculation is merely throwing darts in the dark at this moment in time. But I'm considering my intuition about the situation and I just do not see a whole lot of good coming of it. The C's are on the precipice of becoming perpetual bottom feeders and if the team is perceived to have a culture of losing, then what good is cleared cap space? Which higher profile players will decide to sign a long-term contract?

We've already seen how bad management decisions can set a team back for years and, at least in my opinion, the needle is beginning to tip in that direction.


KJ

KJ

So you would take the risk those "star" players walk away with nothing in return?

(Ray Allen)

I don't think that would be a very good way to get better.

beat