Marcus Smart Beginning to Rewrite Scouting Report on Young NBA Career

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2336936-marcus-smart-beginning-to-rewrite-scouting-report-on-young-nba-career



Marcus Smart Beginning to Rewrite Scouting Report on Young NBA Career




Marcus Smart Beginning to Rewrite Scouting Report on Young NBA CareerBrian Babineau/Getty Images
Alec Nathan
Jan 21, 2015



With his muscular frame and determined mindset, Marcus Smart is tearing down any rookie wall that was supposed to stand in his way.

While so many first-year talents fail to break free from the confines of their pre-draft scouting reports during year one, Smart is rewriting his with an authoritative stroke.

As a prospect coming out of Oklahoma State, Smart was considered a wrecking ball of sorts. He could barrel into the lane and torment defenses with his stocky 6'4'', 225-pound measurements on one end and prevent ball-handlers from imposing their will on the other. However, marksmanship wasn't exactly in his wheelhouse.

Draft Express' Mike Schmitz wrote the following before Smart was selected No. 6 overall by the Boston Celtics in the 2014 draft:

Smart makes a living inside the paint, as he relishes contact and gets to the free throw line nearly ten times per-40 minutes, while finishing 57% of his shots around the basket in the half-court. The role he will play in the NBA appears to be well defined, as he's very good in transition and on the pick and roll, and is more than capable of creating shots for himself and others, something he appears to have improved on in his sophomore year.

Regarding Smart's very apparent deficiencies as a shooter, Schmitz added:

On the downside, Smart still sports a very inconsistent jump-shot, something that didn't really improve from his freshman to sophomore seasons. His shooting mechanics leave a lot to be desired, as he dips the ball violently, and fades forward and sometimes sideways on his release. That wouldn't be that big of an issue if Smart didn't take as many jumpers as he does—nearly half of his field goal attempts came from beyond the arc, and he hit just 30% of them, many being contested ones early in the shot clock.

But now those contested shots are a thing of the past. And Smart will be the first to tell you so.

"In college I took a lot of bad shots because I was on a team where I had to take a lot of bad shots," Smart said, according to NBA.com's Marc D'Amico. "Here, I just have to knock down open shots and take the good ones."

After shooting 29 percent from three as a freshman and 29.9 percent as a sophomore at Oklahoma State, Smart is proving there's much more to his game than bullying defenders in the lane.

On the most basic level, Smart is holding his own by knocking down 36.5 percent of his shots from beyond the arc. Among floor generals, that's a more efficient mark than Jeff Teague, Kyle Lowry, Kemba Walker, Eric Bledsoe, John Wall and Derrick Rose.

Free looks on the perimeter have not been hard for Smart to come by, either. According to NBA.com, Smart's drilling 43.7 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes, with 42.4 percent of his total triples coming when the closest defender is at least four feet away.

Rookies—especially point guards—aren't supposed to knock down threes at rates that high. Even if they are open.

"When he takes good shots, he makes them," Celtics head coach Brad Stevens said following Monday's 102-93 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, per D'Amico. "I think that he was a better shooter than his percentages coming in. I think he was forced to have the ball so late in the clock. … occasionally he’ll settle for that late 3 instead of driving the ball."

Notable Rookie 3-Point Percentages (Since 2010)
Player--------------------------------Season----------------3P%
John Wall............................2010-11...............29.6
Eric Bledsoe........................2010-11...............27.6
Kyrie Irving..........................2011-12...............39.9
Brandon Knight...................2011-12...............38.0
Kemba Walker.....................2011-12...............30.5
Damian Lillard.....................2012-13...............36.8
Victor Oladipo......................2013-14...............32.7
Michael Carter-Williams......2013-14...............26.4
Trey Burke............................2013-14...............33.0
Marcus Smart....................2014-15..............36.5
Basketball-Reference.com

What's so fascinating about these developments is that Boston is actually deploying Smart as a pseudo three-point specialist. It would have been impossible to forecast given his scouting report, but Smart's average shot distance to date is 19.7 feet, according to Basketball-Reference.com. Consequently, 66.7 percent of his total field-goal attempts have come from beyond the arc.

Here's a look at his shooting heat map, courtesy of NBASavant.com:



Credit: NBASavant.com
Marcus Smart's 2014-15 Heatmap


Since the start of the New Year, Smart has been particularly prolific, banging home 42.9 percent of his treys over the course of his past 10 games.

By my tally, 16 of Smart's 18 made threes in that span have come via catch-and-shoot opportunities, with the rookie favoring spot-up looks from the top of the arc and wings. That distribution has been indicative of his strategic preferences through 26 games, loading up 71 triples from straight away or just off-center and a combined 23 coming from the corners, per NBA.com.  

As a contextual note, that same data indicates Smart is attempting 74 percent of his threes from above the break, which is 40 percent greater than the league average.

This isn't just a blip on the radar. Unlike so many ball-dominant starting point guards who enter the league dependent on high usage rates, Smart has been just the opposite.

Funny enough, his usage rate of 13.0 in January is currently a season-low for any one month. That number corresponds with an offensive rating (126) that's suddenly 27 points higher than it was in December, per Basketball-Reference.

Displaying a methodical commitment to progressively expanding his arsenal at a time when it would have been so much easier to be overwhelmed by a daunting acclimation to the NBA, Smart appears to be grasping subtle nuances of the pro game with surprising speed.

Factor in Rajon Rondo's departure, and the franchise's immediate responsibility to groom Smart as the next floor general to prosper on the parquet just got a whole lot easier thanks to a surprising spike in long-range savvy.



All statistics current as of Jan. 21 and courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise.


bob
MY NOTE:  They are comparing Smart to other PGs on his 3 pt shooting?  It's good that he is exceeding expectations in this area but 3pt shooting isn't a key skill for a point guard (unless your name is Derek Fisher).  How is Smart doing in an area that IS a key skill for a point guard, like assists vs turnovers?  Inquiring minds want to know...

Ask and the shall receive:

Player--------------------------------Assists/36mins-----Turnovers/36mins--------Asts/turnover
John Wall............................7.9...........................3.6..................................2.19:1
Eric Bledsoe........................5.7...........................3.8..................................1.5:1
Kyrie Irving..........................6.4...........................3.7...................................1.73:1
Brandon Knight...................4.2...........................2.9...................................1.45:1
Kemba Walker.....................5.8...........................2.4...................................2.42:1
Damian Lillard.....................6.0...........................2.8...................................2.14:1
Victor Oladipo......................4.7...........................3.7...................................1.27:1
Michael Carter-Williams......6.6...........................3.7...................................1.78:1
Trey Burke............................6.3...........................2.1....................................3.0:1
Marcus Smart....................5.0........................1.9.................................2.63:1
Basketball-Reference.com

Michael Carter-Williams was ROY but his ast/TO is MUCH worse than Smart's, and he was on a real running offense team (no defense, but they ran on every possession) so his assists should be higher.  Nothing pads the stats like playing tons of minutes...


.

We've now been privy to rather dramatics improvements in shooting by two Celtics: Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart. I hope Smart doesn't become as streaky as Avery seem to get.

What will seal the deal for Marcus is if he gets better balance between his perimeter attempts and his moves to the hole. Avery has tried to make this happen, but he just doesn't have the handle to drive and finish reliably. Last night, he kicked away a breakaway that would have lost the game had it not been for the amazing Sully-Turner play.

Sam

Sam,

Your point on Bradley's inability to drive to the hoop along with his weak passing skills makes mw wonder why he got an $8 M, four year contract last summer.

I still see him as a trade candidate for a really good point guard if such apoint guard is not found in the June draft.