Boston Celtics rookie Marcus Smart's new jump shot should frighten the NBA

http://www.celticsblog.com/2015/2/13/7878037/boston-celtics-rookie-marcus-smart-has-surpassed-expectations-as-a-shooter-synergy-sports-sportvu



Boston Celtics rookie Marcus Smart's new jump shot should frighten the NBA

By Kevin O'Connor  @KevinOConnorNBA on Feb 13, 2015, 2:34p 58





Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports
Marcus Smart's jump shot development has come far in just one year.


A friend of mine who is only a casual fan of the NBA asked me this question last week: "Is Marcus Smart a better defender or three-point shooter?" It sounds like a silly question considering that Smart's prominent pre-draft weakness was his shooting, but it turns out that it's actually a pretty legitimate thing to ask 37 games into the rookie guard's campaign with the Boston Celtics.

That's because Smart is draining 35 percent of his three-pointers on the year; though that is right near the league average he has gone through scorching hot spurts, including a 42.4 percent stretch in January. It also doesn't hurt that he has knocked down 38.5 percent of his triples since December 1 when it matters most in the fourth quarter and overtime.

http://gfycat.com/InsidiousAccomplishedIndianelephant


On BBallBreakdown.com I wrote a comprehensive analysis of the revisions Smart has made to his jump shot technique, which I believe has paid dividends in his newfound consistency shooting the ball. Smart's changes to his base, dip, and shot selection appear to have taken him to a new level, though he must continue to produce over a longer period of time to prove the alterations were a true success.

Regardless, so far Smart is shining, and his numbers are even more impressive when looking closely at SportVU and Synergy statistics:

Smart scores 1.28 points perw possession on spot up shot attempts, which ranks sixth in the NBA of all qualifying players (minimum 70 possessions), and his 67.9 eFG percentage ranks fifth, according to Synergy Sports. Smart surprisingly finds himself amongst names like Klay Thompson, Stephen Curry, and Chris Paul, and of course he isn't at that level just yet, it sure is an encouraging start to his career.

Part of the reason Smart ranks so highly is because most of his spot up attempts come from three, so his points per possession and eFG percentage are naturally higher. SportVU allows us to look specifically at three-point attempts, where he's still hitting an impressive 41.3 percent, but that ranks just 36th (minimum 1.5 attempts per game).

Despite that reality, Smart has absolutely been one of the league's most excellent spot up shooters as we enter the All Star break, and he is no doubt the best rookie in that category (someone give me one good reason he's not playing in the Rising Stars game. You can't.). Smart's improvements are partially due to the fact he has learned how to hit shots with a hand in his face. Here are Smart's guarded versus unguarded catch and shoot stats history courtesy of Synergy Sports:



SmartSynergy

Smart has never had issues hitting uncontested catch and shoot baskets going all the way back to his freshman year at Oklahoma State, with an eFG percentage of 50 that has risen to 67.7 percent this season. But now it's his ability to hit guarded shots has made all the difference to his overall percentages.

 

Smart's SportVU numbers support the Synergy film study stats, as he's actually shooting the three-pointer better when contested than he is uncontested. This is still such an unexpected development for a rookie who was expected to struggle from behind the arc, but it serves as a prime example of why scouting the draft is not an exact science. Smart still has a long way to go when it comes to shooting off the dribble, as he has only hit 17.1 percent of his 35 three-point attempts, but you can only ask for so much from a player that hasn't even finished his rookie campaign.

Marcus Smart is arguably already one of the NBA's best perimeter defenders and he sure is performing like one of the best shooters, too. There are no guarantees that Smart will sustain this level of production on either end of the floor, but the Boston Celtics have to be ecstatic knowing he's performing at an excellent level both shooting and defending.



bob
MY NOTE:  My favorite line of the whole piece, "This is still such an unexpected development for a rookie who was expected to struggle from behind the arc, but it serves as a prime example of why scouting the draft is not an exact science."



.

Is it the Boston water or just great karma that takes Celtics' defensive specialists and broadens their shooting repertoire?

Sam

Sam,

You have to admit that Smart has been shooting better, but I am not sure that the word "frighten" is appropriate yet.

I do very much like this kid and his already proven ability to continue to get better. Continually working hard to get better as a 20 year old rookie is a great sign for both Smart and the Celtics.

Clyde. Right you are. Over time, players develop identities just as teams do. Right now, it appears that Smart's identity could go in any number of directions because he's improving on many fronts. It'll be interesting to see what his primary identity turns out to be; but, whatever it is, it's extremely likely to be associated with a winning mentality. He's the kind of guy who, with a couple of years of experience under his belt, could will his team to win.

I think Smart's biggest pre-draft booster, NYCelt, should be hired by the Celtics as director of college scouting.

Sam

sam wrote:It'll be interesting to see what his primary identity turns out to be

I'd be ok with an identity of celtics great/multiple time nba champion.

To me Smart is a game changer on the defensive end already which is impressive as a rookie.

He seems to play well at the end of close games and is not afraid to take a big shot which is a great attribute for a player at any stage of his career.

How well he develops offensively, either at point guard or shooting guard, is obviously the big question and will be interesting to watch his progress the next couple of years.

Bobc,

As you probably remember, in the old days, they didn't brand the guard positions according to their functions. There was a left guard and a right guard (sounds like a deodorant), period. I'm wondering whether the NBA will move in the direction of having two combo guards in the backcourt so that both the shooting threat and the playmaking ability will be shared.

There have been stretches during Rondo's injuries when the Celtics operated without a "pure" floor general and yet their assist total doesn't seem to be negatively affected. There are just more people with two to four assists. It could be argued that this is one of those periods. Although I'd stop WAY short of anointing Evan Turnover a guard of the future for the Celtics, I do get a kick out of watching him and Marcus Smart play in tandem. Other teams seem to be bothered by the uncertainty as to whether either of those guys will pass or shoot.

It's actually difficult for me even to write about this, because the floor general model (calling Mr. Cousy) will always be my favorite. But time marches on, and it seems that increasing numbers of college players are learning to be guards rather than specializing as shooting guards or floor general. i'm just wondering whether there's a way to take advantage of their lack of specialization rather than to be hamstrung by their lack of specialization.

Sam