Should The Celtics Trade Up In The 2015 Draft?

Good article, kdp.  He seems like the perfect type to fit the description of defensive intimidator.  Get those trading assets in order, Danny.

Sam

In my opinion, Cauley-Stein is a perfect fit for the Celtics.
He can guard the other teams best big man, whether that's a PF or C.
He is a lot like DeAndre Jordan.
I don't think he jumps out of the gym as much as DeAndre, but I think he's much better in moving horizontally, which allows him to guard anybody on the court.  
I think Danny should do what it takes to move up to get him. This is a great reason to use some of Boston's assets to move up in the draft.

I was at Indy for the final 4 and although C-S didn't score much, he's a great defender, much better than Kaminsky. C-S would be a sweet pick for us.

worcester wrote:I was at Indy for the final 4 and although C-S didn't score much, he's a great defender, much better than Kaminsky. C-S would be a sweet pick for us.

I'd be interested in knowing what you think of each of the players in that final four, who may be coming out in the draft.

Especially:

Okafor , Winslow and T. Jones from Duke.

Kaminsky and Dekker from Wisconsin

Towns, Cauley-Stein, Lyles and Booker from Kentucky

Okafor - good defender. Very good offensive player. Needs to avoid giving up cheap fouls. Kaminsky won the matchup Monday, drawing O into too many fouls, but O would win the war in the NBA.  I'd be happy with Okafor. Not thrilled, but happy.

Winslow can ball. He's 19, 6'7", 229 lbs (almost as much as Frank the Tank), super aggressive, confident, a freshmen, poised, tough, .418% on 3's, more tricks in his bag than our boy James - I like him at SF - but we don't really need a SF like we need a center.

T. Jones. POK. Savvy. tough. But not really special.

Kaminsky - GOOD rebounder. Excellent shooter. Great low post moves. Slippery. Took a couple of charges - partly cause he's a very good actor. Great endurance - was in there most of the games. Savvy - sucked Okafor into making a few needless fouls and kept O out of much of the game, allowing K to shine against smaller opponents inside. Too bad Barcelona closed its bull fighting rink, because Frank's matador D would fit in well  there. He did reach in and poke the ball out a bit but he defends with the side of his body and didn't move to get in front of offensive opponents. I hate reaching in D. Everyone in the stands - many Wisconsin fans too - thought Frank's D was weak. Not as weak as Kelly O's, but weak. He'd be a good replacement for Kelly - a better scorer, better rebounder, slightly better defender, not as good a passer - but why waste a pick for a stretch 4? I had thought he'd be a good center. No. He's actually pretty thin - prolly less than his stated 245. Seven years from now when he's filled out a bit he'll be tougher on D, but Okafor had little trouble backing him down on moves toward the rim or simply sliding by. I love Frank the Tank. We were screaming for him, and he and the whole Wisconsin team played lockdown D on Kentucky the last 2:40 of their semifinal game, but we don't want him, That is unless Brandon, Kelly, and Sully all succumb to Ebola within the next six weeks and die.

Speaking of Barcelona, death, and matadors, I was there in 2005 with the very very lovely Jelena, my erstwhile Latvian lover. What a beauty. She insisted on going to a bullfight. We went. By the time fifteen guys ganged up on the first bull and slayed it, I was sick. I'd rather watch reruns of the Boston Marathon terrorist bombing. I wanted to go, but she wouldn't budge. She wanted to drink in the gore of all five bulls being hacked to death, hour upon hour. Fortunately her bloodlust translated into similar passion back in the hotel room, but I came to see her in a whole new light and realized I was way too much a tenderfoot to trod life's varied paths with her. Except from the basketball or football stands where she's a ferocious whoop it up fan (she's the one who secured the Final 4 tix), my present SWEETheart (14 months and counting) makes the Dalai Lama look like a war monger.

Dekker - hmm - he's got a killer mentality on D and O. Great shooter. Very good handle. Opportunistic rebounder and ball thief. Passionate. Exciting. I liked him lots. Strong at 229 lbs , six foot nine yet quick and aerodynamic. Fun to watch. Fearless shooter. Too bad we don't really need a SF.

Towns - the real deal. Better than all other bigs. Needs seasoning. A pick we won't get. Too bad.

Willie C-S - not as good a scorer as Frank the Tank obviously but longer, bigger, stronger, swifter, agile, better feet on D. We'd be very happy and lucky to get him. He needs to learn to box out.

Lyles? A punk. Sucker punched the little Wisconsin guard. I don't care that he's 6'10" and 250 lbs. He lacks class, is not a good shooter, is an average defender at best. Pass on this one at PF for sure.

Booker didn't impress me but he can shoot.

W,

Thanks for the eyewitness rundown.  Fourteen months sounds like you've got a keeper. Good luck with that.

Sam

thanks for the eye test on the final four players.

I have said Dekker reminds me of Keith Van Horn and Winslow reminds me of Shawn Marion (though maybe with a better outside shot).

I am the only one who thinks Willie Cauley-Stein was horrible.

I really do not see him as an on the man rim protector.  I think he is a help defender, a poor rebounder and a horrible offensive players.  Kaminski made him look really bad.

Now if the Celtics want to draft another back up center go for it but moving up may not be a good decision.

dboss

dboss,

I can't really argue with that. I have said WCS is a one trick pony. for his fans that one trick is defense and rim protection.

no offensive game, though he can finish at the rim on pick and roll. not much of a rebounder.

the reason many people like him at the next level is his quickness along with his rim protection.

frankly, I think of him as a taller but less skilled N. Noel.

one of the reasons I have said I hope Ainge can trade for Noel in the off-season. Even giving up our top pick this year and a future first rounder for him.

Makes sense but will Philly let him go?

true , you always need a dance partner.

worcester wrote:Makes sense but will Philly let him go?

I do not see Noel being traded for more draft picks.
Noel is inconsistent, but he has dominated a number of games this year.

Have not heard much about Texas Center Myles Turner.  He has some positives and negative.  Ranked 4th in rebounding per 40m minutes and 3rd in blocks shots (draft express top 100 prospects)

The player that I like who is not a center is the kid from Kentucky freshman Devin Booker.  at 6'6" he may be a really good fit at SG.  

I saw a draft board that has Boston taking Robert Upshaw in the 2nd round.  Would you take a 2nd round flyer on him? I have not been able to identify exactly why he got kicked off the team.  I think it was because of "Refer Madness".

Some other prospects that may be available without having to trade up include the Arkansas PF Portis, Trey Lyles ken and Kevin Looney UCLA

dboss

I think Turner will go around #10-12 now (ahead of Kaminsky for me). unless there is a problem with  his legs. He seems to have not grown into his body yet (or it could be something else). The same was said of R. Hibbert when he was this age and he turned out to be fine.
Turner is still young though and shoudn't be expected to make an inpact for a couple years, IMO. but of course that can be said for many of the kids coming out now.

I'm not sure about a SG being drafted high, i keep waivering on picking the best SG or SF with our second first. we are pretty set with Bradley, Smart and Thomas and I see all three back next year. Not a lot of minutes left after those three and IF Turner slides into the back court at times, there is almost no minutes to be had. Of course if we are picking at around #25 and Booker is stil there you go for it for talent alone.

Yep I would use the #33 pick from Philly on Upshaw. he's been kicked out of TWO schools though and I also read "off the record" stuff that said it was drug related. So he's at worst Larry Saunders. Do the celtics have anyone in the organization with a drug history that can be a mentor to Upshaw in that regard? IMO he will need that, someone he will repsect who can help him understand that throwing away his talent (as well as all the future cash) for the weed is silly. he can smole as much as he wants once his career is over...ah well, we'll see on that one I guess.

Looney and lyles would be fine picks at around #15, for me. Portis I have yet to read much on myself so I need to catch up there.

tjmakz wrote:

worcester wrote:Makes sense but will Philly let him go?

I do not see Noel being traded for more draft picks.
Noel is inconsistent, but he has dominated a number of games this year.

worcester and TJ,

You wouldn't have thought that Philly would trade Rookie-of-the-Year Michael Carter-Williams for a 2nd round pick either, but that's what Sam Hinkie did. Noel has dominated in a number of games this year, but MCW dominated in a LOT of games last year. That's why he was ROY. Hinkie marches to the beat of a very different drummer. Free-style jazz is more like it.

He has Noel and Embiid. Does he need both?


bob


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bobheckler wrote:

tjmakz wrote:

worcester wrote:Makes sense but will Philly let him go?

I do not see Noel being traded for more draft picks.
Noel is inconsistent, but he has dominated a number of games this year.

worcester and TJ,

You wouldn't have thought that Philly would trade Rookie-of-the-Year Michael Carter-Williams for a 2nd round pick either, but that's what Sam Hinkie did.  Noel has dominated in a number of games this year, but MCW dominated in a LOT of games last year.  That's why he was ROY.  Hinkie marches to the beat of a very different drummer.  Free-style jazz is more like it.

He has Noel and Embiid.  Does he need both?


bob


.

Bob,

Your information is incorrect.
Philly received the Lakers top 5 protected 2015 1st round draft pick in the MCW trade.
If the Lakers keep it this year, it is top 3 protected next year.

Noel is just a wish and prayer for me frankly. I think he'd fit very well defensively here and i think he has roots on the area.

nothing more , nothing less than that for me.

I agree that Philly would be stupid to let him go.......but.........


http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/02/24/report-sixers-willing-to-talk-about-anyone-on-roster-including-joel-embiid-in-trade-for-more-no-1-picks/

since this thread is about trading up, I thought it might be nice to see how each selection in the draft does in their rookie years and in year three.

I started at the 2012 draft to get the third year as this year and went back 5 years to the 2008 draft.

here is the average playing time for each selection in year one and year three:

Pick---G/year1---Min/year 1------G/year 3------Min/ year 3
1--------67-----------2424---------------69--------------2407
2--------74-----------1626---------------62-------------1760
3--------72-----------1802---------------70-------------1947
4--------71-----------2119---------------71-------------2122
5--------68-----------1704---------------72-------------2110
6--------61-----------1605---------------60-------------1480
7--------76-----------2262---------------64-------------1764
8--------65-----------1232---------------53-------------1402
9--------69-----------1565--------------74--------------2411
10------69-----------1798---------------70-------------2049
11------57-----------1075--------------56--------------1212
12------49------------854--------------60--------------1404
13------56----------1169--------------65---------------1480
14------49------------667--------------60--------------1176
15------66-----------1182-------------57--------------1218
16------55------------742--------------49---------------967
17------67-----------1430-------------75---------------1955
18------61-----------1202-------------54--------------1380
19------56------------663-------------59---------------1631
20------44------------541-------------40----------------693
21------47------------977-------------36---------------958
22------38------------790-------------46--------------1012
23------63----------1115----------37----------------579
24------23-----------246-----------50--------------1209
25------49-----------842-----------45--------------1044
26------53-----------904-----------65-------------1369
27------54-----------825----------35---------------733
28------61-----------902----------64--------------1486
29------31-----------412----------35--------------506
30------42----------476-----------24---------------636

so moving into the top ten should typically get us a player that can be a starter in year 3.

kdp,

Wow, you put a lot of work into those stats.  Well done.

I have a question.  The best estimate I can come up with is that the average NBA starter averages slightly more than 26 ppg.  (I based this estimate on the Celtics and the fact that 147 NBA players (enough to average roughly 5 players on each of the 150 teams) have averaged at least 26 MPG this season.  Multiply the 26 ppg by 78 (allowing for four games missed due to injury—pure guesswork by me), and one arrives at 2,028 minutes per starter per season, which I'm rounding off to 2,000.

On your list, five of the top 10 picks played fewer than 2,000 minutes in year 3 (averaging 1,670.6 minutes among them)  Among the other five, two actually played more minutes as rookies than in their third years.

That leaves only 3 of the 10 who (a) played at least 2,000 minutes in year three and (b) played more minutes in year 3 than in their rookie years.

Does this perspective alter your thinking about the likelihood of getting a starter in year 3 with a top 10 pick?

The one thing I can think of that could muddy my reasoning is if a number of the top 10 picks had serious injuries in year 3, thus lowering their minutes played by more than the four injury games I allowed for.

I'm interested in your perspective.

Thanks,

Sam

I should have noted in that post one other thing Sam.

for the first year I kicked out any players who did not play in the NBA most were players drafted but who played overseas the first year. a few were players who missed the entire year due to injuries.

by the third year I included all players. so even if a player was stil playing overseas his NBA numbers were zero. same with injury's.

this probably bumped up the first year numbers slightly over all. as there were a total of 7 did not plays out of 150 players drafted.

by the third year there were 11 did not plays (mostly after the 20th pick).

9 out of 10 of the third year averages played over 26 min per game (with the #6 picks averages about 24.6Min/g). so maybe I should say you have a better chance to get a rotational player in year 3 with a top 10 pick.


The biggest thing that I took form this, was that you pretty much know what type of player you have after year one!

that was what surprised me the most

and I think Ainge should try to get the #9 and #17 picks somehow....LOL.

Thanks for the clarification, kdp.

Sam