What kind of player can the Celtics get at the 16th pick?

http://www.celticsblog.com/2015/5/21/8630475/celtics-2015-draft-talent



What kind of player can the Celtics get at the 16th pick?
By Justin Danziger  @justin_danziger on May 21, 2015, 11:36a 2





Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Past draft classes have shown that the mid-draft pick is all hit and miss.



The Boston Celtics were not participants in Tuesday night's lottery, but they've got to feel good about their two first round picks in the draft: 16 and 28.  Looking back in draft history, the 16th pick (and its neighbor picks: 15 and 17) has produced some notable players.  With the right fit and a little bit of luck, the Celtics can land a future franchise stud with their mid-first round selection.

2014 Draft

15: Adreian Payne

16: Jusuf Nurkic

17: James Young

The Chicago Bulls drafted Nurkic and traded him draft night to the Nuggets with Gary Harris for Doug McDermott.  Nurkic showed a lot of promise as a rim protector and interior scorer.  He joined Marcus Smart on the All Rookie Second Team.  Knowing that Boston can land a talent like Nurkic at this point in the draft is encouraging because Nurkic will have a bright future as an interior defender.

2013 Draft

15: Giannis Antetokounmpo

16: Lucas Nogueira

17: Dennis Schroder

Nogueira hasn't had a notable career after his second season, but Giannis and Schroder have been two of the most exciting players in this draft class.  Giannis is years away from reaching his apex, as is Schroder, but they are projected to be future stars, if not valuable secondary players.

2012 Draft

15: Maurice Harkless

16: Royce White

17: Tyler Zeller

This class did not produce much talent in this area of the draft, but Zeller has played nicely for the Celtics, and Harkless is a decent role player for the Magic.  While the Celtics are looking to find better options at their pick, ending up with a player like Zeller or Harkless would not be the end of the world.

2011 Draft

15: Kawhi Leonard

16: Nikola Vucevic

17: Iman Shumpert

2011's mid-draft proved that talent can be found anywhere.  Leonard, Vucevic, and Shumpert have all had promising starts to their careers, especially Leonard who has already won Finals MVP and Defensive Player of the Year.  Leonard's success is a testament to Popovich's ability to breed and develop talent, but it is hard to deny that Kawhi would be a star regardless of the team he ended up on.

2010 Draft

15: Larry Sanders

16: Luke Babbitt

17: Kevin Seraphin

This trio may be a bit underwhelming, but Sanders was once a premier rim protector and Babbitt has the ability to be a 3-point specialist.  This draft had Hassan Whiteside and Lance Stephenson selected in the second round, so talent can be found at any point in the draft.

Almost all of the players listed above are or have been projects.  They all start off as raw talent.  While the Celtics are looking to find a player to contribute next year, Brad Stevens certainly knows how to get the most out of his players.  Realistically, it is rare to find someone at the 16th pick who can be a difference maker on day one.  So the Celtics will need to find the best fit and the player that can develop sooner rather than later.

Like any other pick, it is all hit and miss.  The Celtics can land the next Kawhi Leonard or the next Kevin Seraphin with their mid-draft selection.  Over the past few years, a majority of the drafts had star talent at and around the 16th pick, so the Celtics are in a good position.


Justin's Mid-Draft Big Board

1) Kelly Oubre

Upside: Oubre offers a ton of upside with his shooting range and 7'2 wingspan.  He is athletic and has a ton of defensive potential.

Downside: Scouts question his effort due to his string of lackluster performances at Kansas.

2) Myles Turner

Upside: HUGE frame with high shot blocking abilities.  Averaged 4.7 blocks per 40 minutes at Texas and would fill the Celtics vacant spot as rim protector.  He's also got decent range for a guy his size.

Downside: He is a bit awkward with his low post game and runs in a weird way.  He definitely needs help developing his interior moves.

3) Devin Booker

Upside: Phenomenal shooter from behind the arc.  He was one of the highest scorers on Kentucky and has decent size.  His shot does not need much work.

Downside: Could be a liability on defense.

4) Bobby Portis

Upside: Portis is very physical and fights for every loose ball and rebound.  He can shoot from 20 feet out and has a nice low post game.

Downside: Portis does not have a crazy amount of athleticism, but he does not need much for his trade (being a bully on the boards.)

5) Willie Trill Cauley-Stein (he is this low because he most likely will not be available this late)

Upside: Exceptional rim protector and shot blocker. Would be a perfect fit defensively on the Celtics.

Downside: We haven't seen much of his offensive skills, so that could prove to be a weakness.  From what he has shown, he can be a pretty decent scorer around the basket.



bob
MY NOTE:  I like the depth we've gone into with the possibilities at both #16 and especially at the less well known and researched #28 (Upshaw vs Wood vs Johnson) a little better than this article, and we're just getting wound up for the draft.  What I liked about this article was the listing of other players that were had at or around 16.  The conclusion by the author is that it is hit-or-miss at 16 (aka "a crap shoot") but there are talented players to be found.  I, for one, was pissed when Nurkic got taken just before we picked.



.

Looking at the five years of draft examples in the article it would seem that not too much should be expected immediately of any guy who is drafted between 15 and 17. Some of these guys have turned into solid pro players in the league, but only Leonard is a star and none of them did a whole lot for their teams in their first season.

With that thought in mind, I think that taking a shot on a guy who is a true center needs to be the direction the Cs go for if they still have pick number 16. Upshaw has been mentioned, and might be worth a gamble at #16. Turner was mentioned in the article and could be a good option at this spot as well if still available.

A crap shoot?  Oh no!  Ya think?

I wonder whether Las Vegas has posted odds on the Celtics not picking either 16th or 29th but, rather, trading those two picks (and who knows what else?) to move well up in the lottery.  Not a prediction.  Just sayin'.

Sam

I was crushed when Nurkic got drafted one pick ahead of us. Looking back, we easily could have packaged a 2015 first rounder with our 17th pick and drafted Nurkic at 14 or 15. Now I don't think Denver would accept our 16th pick and James Young for Nurkic. But that would be something.

I'd like to draft a good player like Bobby Portis at 16, but have Danny make an aggressive trade up from 28 to make sure he gets Upshaw. Memphis may be our biggest competition for him, and they draft 25th. Unless he really starts rising after workouts, which is very possible. A lot of the prospects from the mid-teens and below are hit or miss, boom or bust type prospects anyway, so it's not going to be hard for a team to talk themselves into rolling the dice on Upshaw.

Upshaw might have just as much upside as Nurkic, and is definitely a better rim protector. And for all Nurkic's talent, he to faced a lot of character concerns, like a bunch of bigoted comments on twitter about western europeans and americans. I think he's also a drinker, and was one of the guys Brian Shaw was talking about when Shaw decided to cancel morning shoot arounds because players were too hung over. Here's a great pic of Nurkic's father, a legendary cop in Bosnia who can break up a bar brawl single handedly.

Uh oh. Well, Upshaw is more likely to be there at 33 then.

Chad Ford: Upshaw's off-the-court issues more serious than initially thought

Dustin (Sacramento)
If you're picking late in the first round, do you roll the dice on Robert Upshaw?


Chad Ford 1:50 PM ET
Might be the best rim protector in the draft. A lottery talent. But the off-the-court issues are serious. More serious than teams initially thought. Everyone is pulling for him to get his life turned around, but I think there are some serious reservations from NBA teams about drafting him in the first round.

Forget Upshaw.  Let's get Nurkic's father.

Sam

Portis sounds great in this interview
2015 Draft Combine | Bobby Portis


And Rondae Hollis Jefferson as well
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Workout Video and Interview
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Rondae-Hollis-Jefferson-Workout-Video-and-Interview-5005

Okay, I've been thinking about the draft a loooot.
Assuming Kaminsky is gone.
Been going back and forth on Portis and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, but leaning towards Portis because he's 6'-11", is a versatile defender, can shoot outside, and has a pretty good bbiq. A very solid addition who should be a long-time starter for somebody.

But this draft is crazy deep in power forwards, and while we could use an upgrade over Sully, it's very debatable that Portis can beat Sully out for the starting spot, and we do already have Olynyk and perhaps some returning free agents.

So drafting another solid PF would be great, but it's not going to make or break our season, or any other season. And the drop-off in talent from Bobby Portis to the PFs available at 28 and even 33 is not much.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is every bit the athlete that Justise Winslow is, probably more so, and Winslow is projected to get drafted 3rd or 4th.

RHJ is underrated right now, in part because he shared the court with two other top 10 picks who played the same position, Aaron Gordon (#3) and Stanley Johnson.

It's a perfect chance to get a top 10 talent, and a guy who could very well have a better career than Winslow, and/or emerge as one of the 5-10 best players from this draft.

Evan Turner was a great stop-gap, for a team that didn't have a real point guard, and Turner is still getting a bit better, but RHJ can upgrade our SF position almost immediately.

The big knocks on RHJ stem from the shallowest of reasons. His shooting form is imperfect, and some people get a kick out of saying his jumper is "broken", and "the worst in the draft". But that's a lot of hyperbole. Hollis-Jefferson went to the free throw line an outstanding 5.4 times per game, shooting 71% from the FT line. People with broken shots don't shoot 70-something on such high volume.

Meanwhile, top 4 prospect Emmanuel Mudiay shoots 57% from the FT line, and he's just expected to develop as a shooter for some reason.

There's no reason RHJ can't put together a rock solid jump shot and corner 3 pointer. His shooting form isn't as bad as people say, and he clearly has the natural touch/body control to be a solid jump shooter.

He's arguably the best or second best defender in the draft, he's arguably the best athlete in the draft, he excels in stat categories that translate well to the NBA (rebounding, steals, blocks, FTA/game all translate well to the NBA and good stats in college in these categories tends to indicate future success in the NBA.

RHJ is also underrated as a ball handler, and as a passer. Some observers compared his style of play in high school to Rondo, in that he used his superior athleticism to dribble the ball up the court with smooth handles, and then make a sweet pass on the run or finish beautifully.

Now, he's no Rondo, by any means. But he very well may be one of the best fast break/transition players in the league. As an absolutely top notch athlete even by NBA standards, as a ball handler using that athleticism, as a very solid passer in transition, and especially as a finisher. Not to mention as a transition defender.

In the half court, his impact is underrated right now. At SF he's going to have a quickness/athleticism advantage almost every night. And with the Celtics, whose bigs stretch the floor and clear out the paint, RHJ will be much more effective as a dribble-driver and playmaker for himself and teammates.

He's about 3/4 of a step faster than Turner, whatever that means. Turner's athleticism at SF is better than his athleticism at SG, but RHJ's athleticism and quickness is elite for either position, and especially SF.
He's quicker than Justise Winslow.

So what we're looking at here is quietly elite player who has just been a wee bit under the radar, and who has been picked apart some critics who care more about aesthetics than whether a shot goes in.

Which is part of why they're so high on Mudiay, the top 4 prospect who shoots 57% from the FT line.

RHJ's wingspan is a full 6" longer than Evan Turner's, and he jumps 5" higher from standing or running. And athletically, he's like having a 6'7" Russell Westbrook, which impacts the game constantly. Our rebounding would be instantly improved, as well as our rim protection and steals/forced turnovers.

Our perimeter defense would instantly be the best or one of the very best in the league. And a perimeter defense can really carry a team's defense. Elite perimeter defenders have many more opportunities to disrupt a possession, because the ball is in the hands of perimeter players most of the time.

The Miami Heat with LeBron were at their best when Mario Chalmers, Wade, and LeBron were terrorizing the league with their disruptive defense. That was the core of their mega-long win streak and multi-year dominance. They were amazing at forcing turnovers, having the best perimeter defense in the league, while not even having a real rim protector behind them.

An elite perimeter defense can create lots and lots of turnovers and easy baskets. A great defensive frontcourt doesn't have as many opportunities to impact the game, and their efforts don't lead to anywhere near as many easy baskets at the other end.

If the center of our dreams was there at 16 that would be one thing. And that center of our dreams may indeed be there, but he may have a cocaine addiction or something bad like that. But a real cornerstone of a SF may be sitting right there, in the form of RHJ.

And because he can guard shooting guards and point guards at an elite level, his presence would not be incompatible with re-signing Crowder, who can also play some minutes at PF. And Evan Turner can get minutes at SG as well, where who knows, he may even be better there.