Jared Dudley: "I would be surprised if Kevin Love goes to the Lakers"

Dudley wrote:Most guys don?t want to play with Kobe. He gets in this thing where he doesn?t pass and then overpasses and then trying to get triple doubles every night, so we know you have it?

?That?s why I think it will be a while for the Lakers to get good because they?ve got no stars. I would be surprised if (Kevin) Love goes there.

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=78330.msg1890853#msg1890853

I think there's a real chance Love decides to sign with Boston after opting out of Cleveland with his player option.

He made minimal effort to fit in with his teammates and develop bonds. Cleveland has even shown that they don't even have a huge need for him.

There's no doubt that Love's role in Cleveland would continue to be third fiddle as long as he's in Cleveland, and while most people assume he'll stay there, I really doubt he does.

This is the first opportunity he's had in his career to decide where he wants to play, one year after taking a tour of Boston and Fenway.

We're a team on the rise with a great coach, in need of a star/super star. We also need a scoring upgrade in the starting lineup, as well as a rebounding upgrade. KLove brings both, and he knows he'll be valued more highly in Boston than in Cleveland.

So it's a real possibility, and it hasn't been discussed much since I've been posting here. Which is probably part of why I like this place so much. I always resented the elaborate Kevin Love trade ideas that involved trading everybody of any worth on our roster for KLove last year.

So on the outside chance that Kevin Love wants to sign with Boston, what would that involve/require?

For one, he would take up most or all of our cap space, and that's after renouncing Bass, Crowder, Jerebko, and Datome. Perhaps there would be room for one or two of them on very small contracts. Signing both Jerebko and Datome may very well be feasible, though getting Crowder instead would probably be ideal, since Crowder would be a good fit next to Love.

So say we had Love and Crowder and no cap space except for draft picks.
If the Celtics get word that Love is interested in signing with Boston, perhaps through Love's childhood friend Isaiah Thomas, how would that affect draft day?

The need for a rim protecting center would suddenly be even more urgent, and Danny would probably draft Upshaw at 16.

Then at 28, Ainge would have a lot of options. Perhaps another center or PF/Center hybrid in case Upshaw doesn't work out. Dakari Johnson, Cliff Alexander, Rakeem Christmas would all make sense.
Another defensive perimeter player would also make sense, since Love would be such a big outside scorer from the frontcourt.

Anyway, in the event Love decided to to come to Boston, I think we could field a real contender of a roster if Danny got word from Love before draft day.

But if Boston was unable to re-sign Crowder because of cap space, it might be a bit of a stretch to draft both a rim protecting center and a defensive upgrade at small forward over Turner.

Woj on Love...

Love has options. I think he's going to look around. He's going to look closely at Boston. He's going to look closely at LA. I'm sure the Texas teams want to get involved. He really likes Kevin McHale. He took the trade to Cleveland without knowing his role, without discussing with Blatt on how he would be used. I'm told that how he'll be used are some of the questions he wants to ask. I think Boston would be interesting because of Stevens and Ainge as a recruiting duo to sell him on how he'll be used there. I think Boston is a real legitimate possibility.

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=78335.0

well, just because I would rather you not talk just to yourself here...LOL.

all the chatter over the past couple years about Love and Boston probably means there is or was some interest on both sides.

Love at $18M first year max deal, does still let the Celtics match any offer Crowder gets, we just have to make a qualifying offer to him at the start of the new NBA year. For Crowder the qualifying offer is only about $1.2M I think. Now there MAY be issues with timing, I can't remember right now, but I perhaps RFA offers (that we can match) have to be in before UFA signing (but I don't think so).

you have it right that Love add's a top level scorer, which moves Thomas to our #2 scorer and Bradley to #3. All more in their respective places to me.

Love also is a good rebounder, so no lose with him replacing Sully as the starter. Kelly would be solid BU for Love but they would be a bad combo in the lineup together, IMO.

which gets us to our biggest problem signing Love. we are left with Zeller (solid NBA back up) and Sullinger playing center for most of the minutes. Kelly and Love do the same thing on offense and are not top end defenders, so they won't play much together, IMO.



so we'd have a roster of:

Zeller
Sullinger (I think in this roster he'd be back playing center mostly)
Love
Olynyk
Crowder
Wallace
Turner
Bradley
Smart
Thomas
Young
Pressey

draft picks 16,28, 33, 45.

you and I disagree about what Upshaw WILL bring to the NBA. but lets say you are correct and Upshaw gets ahold of his problems and turns it around. I mean after all young men who have issues, usually get better when they have issues AND lots of money, but I digress.

a few weeks back I checked how much players drafted at each spot in the draft actually played in their first year and also in their third year. I went back five years to get a good average, so I used the 2012 draft back to the 2008 draft. ( I had to start at 2012 to get the third year)

here is what the average player at each of our current picks played :

Pick---Year-----G----Min---Min/G
16----2012----------DNP
16---2011-----51----812---15.9
16---2010-----24----137----5.7
16---2009-----65----757---11.6
16---2008-----79---1263---16.0

Average -------55----742---13.5


Pick--Year----G---Min----Min/G
28---2012---38---280----7.4
28---2011---65--1260---19.4
28---2010---70---860 ---12.3
28---2009---76---1384--18.2
28---2008---55---725---13.2

Average ----61----902---14.8


Pick--Year----G---Min----Min/G
33---2012---46---457---9.9
33---2011 -------DNP
33---2010----1-----2----2.0
33---2009---63---707---11.2
33---2008----3----6-----2.0

Average-----23---234----10.2


I did not go below the #33 pick when I gathered the info, so someone else can check that out if they want.



my point in checking it out was to see what we realistically can expect from our possible draft picks in year one and year three.

reality is we can't expect much help in year one from any of these rookies, where we sit now on the draft. so knowing what we will LIKEY get from these rookies lets look at a Love team :

Zeller - Back starting most likely about 1700 min?
28 pick- 900 mins
Sullinger- forced to play about 1300 min at center again
Love- 2600 min if healthy all year
Olynyk- 1300 min backing up Love
Crowder
Wallace
Turner
Bradley
Smart
Thomas
Young
Pressey
16 pick- 750 min

Upshaw or anyone else we are likely to draft at #16 will not be a starting center for us in year one.

You state that Upshaw will not be a starter as a rookie, but you base it not on Upshaw himself, but on a historical average of 16th picks. Probably not a good idea to be so definitive.
And that goes for somebody picked 5th, 9th, or even 1st. Historical averages are irrelevant, especially when you're talking about a guy who would be a top 10 pick if not for the addiction/character concerns. Maybe even top 3.

none of the players picked at 16, 28 or 33 were starters as rookies. 15 picks and no starters, that says a lot.

I'll take that as being definitvie enough for me.

we know you like Upshaw a lot and perhaps you are correct that he is a top 10 talent or better. we'll know on draft day if any NBA GM's feel the same. but even if they don't and he falls to where most expect him to be picked, you could still be proven right on him over time.

using what REAL players have done recently in the NBA in their early years gives us an idea of what we can realistically expect from any player drafted at that slot, IMO.


I don't have the raw numbers in front of me right now and don't have the time to re-do it, but somewhere on this board I put all that info in a thread somewhere. SO you can see (or just do it yourseflf) for each drtaft position.

I was somewhat surprised both at how little most played as rookies , but also how little improvement there was by year three for most picks below #5 (if I remember correctly).

we can hope that the Celtics pick someone who is far above the norm I guess. But i would rather not rely on that for team improvement.

rambone wrote:You state that Upshaw will not be a starter as a rookie, but you base it not on Upshaw himself, but on a historical average of 16th picks. Probably not a good idea to be so definitive.
And that goes for somebody picked 5th, 9th, or even 1st. Historical averages are irrelevant, especially when you're talking about a guy who would be a top 10 pick if not for the addiction/character concerns. Maybe even top 3.

rambone,

And Jeffrey Dahmer might have been a productive member of society, if not for those cannibalism/murder concerns.

If those concerns were easily treatable, correctable or controlled don't you think they would have been? It gets worse in the NBA, where you don't have coaches and teachers hovering over you like mother hens. You're a man, a highly paid one at that, and are expected to conduct yourself like one and if you can't there are plenty who can and are just dying for the opportunity to prove it.

If they're serious enough to knock a 7'er with talent down to the bottom half of the 1st round then they're too serious to just sweep under the rug.


bob



.

jeffrey Dahmer?

did he play for the Lakers?

I'd guess that 20% of the NBA are high functioning alcoholics, including some of our favorite Celtics. And something like 80% smoke weed.

Pierce was a big drinker, which is why he always showed up chubby to training camp. He could get away with it. So could Upshaw, for a while anyway.

Parish was a huge pot head, Larry Bird was a big drinker, and Bill Walton had an addiction of some kind, which is why he is now mentoring Robert Upshaw.

Vin Baker was a four time All Star before he washed out.

Charles Barkley kept his drinking under control.

Pistol Pete was an alcoholic.

On and on.

If the Celtics get Kevin Love, we'd be about as good as the Hawks are now, or perhaps better since this roster played better than the Hawks since they've been together. Right now the Hawks are desperate for a rim protecting center, and know that was the biggest weakness that led to them getting swept by Cleveland.

Kevin Love is one of the very worst defensive PFs in the league. Sandwiching him between Evan Turner and Zeller or Olynyk would be an utter disaster.

Just consider the trade ideas that we thrown around last year for KLove, or the trade ideas being thrown around this year to move up a mere handful of draft spots.

Upshaw is the best defensive center in this draft. Towns and WCS are both PF/C hybrids. The only reason people write off Upshaw, without even watching tape or listening to people who have, is because he's not listed in the top ten prospects that get talked about, to the exclusion of everybody else.

If Upshaw worked out for even one year, he would be worth it if we're getting Love. Even if we don't get Love, Upshaw is still worth the risk. He's not just a lateral move at center like most other names that get thrown around. Even WCS would be a lateral move from Zeller because WCS isn't strong enough or tough enough to handle full time center physicality. It's not a coincidence that his love for the game suddenly blossomed when he was moved to PF this past year.

If the Celtics get Love, we're in win now mode, full stop. And we'd all be kicking ourselves for not taking a chance on Upshaw when he's having a big impact for another team and we're getting throttled inside in the playoffs again.

Maybe a sign and trade for Roy Hibbert could work, if Hibbert picks up his player option. 16 + Wallace + a contract or two for Hibbert.

Hibbert isn't great, but he'd be a very good fit next to Love, and he's playoff tested. A much better fit next to Love than Zeller or KO or Sully, or any of the PF/C hybrid rookies from this draft. Other than Upshaw.

I don't think Kevin Love has any idea who he will play for next season.
He would be a very good fit on paper for Houston, but does he want to be #3 on a team again?
I think Boston is in the hunt as are the Lakers.
I'm torn about it to some degree.
I would rather the Lakers try to sign one of the top SF's but all of them are restricted free agents.
I am pretty high on Julius Randle, so PF is not a position I am too worried about filling.

I was against a Kevin Love trade last year, in part because he's an even worse defender than Sully or Bass, and it would just open up an even bigger need for a rim protecting center, after we just traded half our roster to get Love.

But now that we just might get him for free, and we have even more assets than last year, I'm much more for it. We can easier fill that void next to him, and it's good to know that even Upshaw at 16 could probably keep his shit together for a year, or at least be done serving suspensions by the playoffs, lol.

And we really do seem to have some real trade options with our draft picks, future draft picks, and young players.

And we can always do sign and trades, like 16 plus Wallace for Robin Lopez or something. Figure some way to get both Kevin Love and a quality defensive center on the roster.