Miles Turner Would Be An Educated Gamble For Boston Celtics

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2015 NBA Draft prospects: Myles Turner would be an educated gamble for Boston Celtics






If the Boston Celtics selected Myles Turner, they would be gambling on his potential rather than his college production. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)



Print Email Tom Westerholm | twesterh@masslive.com By Tom Westerholm | twesterh@masslive.com

on May 28, 2015 at 1:52 PM




Myles Turner, Texas' freshman big man, will be a gamble for whichever team drafts him, but perhaps especially for the Boston Celtics.

That's not necessarily a bad thing. The NBA draft, for all of the scouting that goes into it year after year, is little more than a trip to the casino. Some teams try to fix their odds: Watch the Philadelphia 76ers over the past three years, and you'll see a team trying to count cards in Las Vegas, with the NBA looming over its shoulder like a bouncer ready to throw them out with lottery rule changes if everything works a little too well.

But no matter how effectively a team games the system, everything still comes down to betting on a prospect, and given how high Boston would have to trade up to have a shot at Turner, the Celtics would be rolling some serious dice if they selected him. At Turner's worst, he could be the latest in a number of memorable NBA big-man busts — a seven-footer who couldn't cut it in a league dominated by athleticism. At his best, however, he could be everything the Celtics need.


Strengths

In many ways, Myles Turner projects as the ideal big man for the modern NBA. His three greatest strengths are the three things we look for first when evaluating a 7-footer (or a near 7-footer — technically Turner is 6'11 with a massive 7'4 wingspan) — rim protection, defensive rebounding and shooting.

Turner showed a lot of promise as a rim protector despite limited explosiveness and athleticism. He used his length effectively as a help-side defender, averaging a somewhat absurd 4.9 blocks per 40 minutes, according to DraftExpress. A large part of his effectiveness was due to his timing — being able to bait a player into taking a shot while still covering enough ground to reject it is a big part of coming from the weak side to help. It's also worth noting that Turner can recover when he's beaten off the dribble and still block the shot. That will be an important tool for him at the NBA level, as switching becomes more and more en vogue around pick-and-rolls — Turner isn't fast enough to stay in front of a ball handler, so being able to recover and contest the shot will be important.

As a shooter, Turner has NBA 3-point range, even though he didn't shoot particularly efficiently from downtown. At the college level, he made 27.4 percent of his triples, which isn't ideal, but it's enough to prove that at the very least he won't be a liability as a floor stretcher. While Turner isn't mobile or athletic, he should be effective in the pick-and-roll when he pops mid-range or to the 3-point line. That's enough to pull Turner's defensive assignment away from the basket, creating driving lanes for guards and wings.

One of Turner's biggest strengths as a prospect is as a defensive rebounder. He boxes out well, which is important given his lack of athleticism, and he's aggressive — attacking the ball rather than waiting to see where it might land. While he isn't a great offensive rebounder, DraftExpress pointed out that he is talented at tipping the ball and keeping plays alive which — as the Golden State Warriors proved in the Western Conference Finals — is largely the same thing.


Weaknesses

Perhaps Turner's biggest weakness is his actual physical weakness. Turner will need to add quite a bit of muscle. He was consistently pushed around at the collegiate level, and that problem filtered into the rest of his game.

While Turner is a good rebounder, he was pushed around at times trying to establish position. Given his other physical limitations, he can't afford to be bullied on the block, since he won't be able to out-leap opponents in any capacity. He also struggles to defend the post, since opponents can establish position against him.

On the offensive end, Turner's post game is limited, once again, by his strength. He tallied a solid percentage around the rim, but as several outlets pointed out, those numbers were boosted by weak competition. Against teams with a .500 or better record, per DraftExpress, Turner shot just 44 percent inside the arc. That's not great for a player projected to be a center/power forward combo.

Finally, Turner is very raw at nearly everything. His upside is there, but his shot, body and defense all need work. Any team that gambles on Turner will need to be confident in its developmental staff from both a physical and a basketball standpoint.


Fit with the Celtics

Any player who fits under the "rim protection" category is going to spark interest from the Celtics, who relied on Tyler Zeller's surprisingly-okay-but-still-not-great contributions on the defensive end heavily this season. Turner provides the weak-side help Boston has been sorely lacking, and his rebounding ability will be attractive after the damage Tristan Thompson inflicted on the offensive boards during the playoffs. Meanwhile, if Turner's jump shot develops the way scouts project, he should be able to knock down both 3-pointers and free throws, the latter of which has become increasingly important as teams embrace hacking poor free-throw shooters as a legitimate strategy.

The biggest issue with Turner will be his development. Since the Celtics made the postseason, they would be excused for looking for more immediate help. Turner might be able to block shots as a rookie, but he isn't likely to be a plus on either end in his first year.

That being said, the Celtics' depth chart at center is currently Tyler Zeller and Kelly Olynyk in small lineups that don't defend the rim well. Turner might not have an impact immediately, but he wouldn't be buried on the bench, and the Celtics do have Brad Stevens. Development seems to happen a little quicker with Stevens around.


Level of intrigue

Boston would have to move up to get Turner, especially as clean bills of health from doctors roll in. The only way he was likely to slip was if doctors shared scouts' concerns about his awkward gait, large feet and durability. That doesn't seem to be the case, and while DraftExpress currently lists Turner at 11, positive workouts and physicals could raise his profile even further.

The Celtics would also have to consider what's worthing giving up to move into position for Turner. Zach Lowe thinks Utah might trade its 12th pick for Avery Bradley, but it's tough to imagine the Celtics — who understandably love Bradley — would move a talented wing defender on a great contract for a shot at drafting a prospect that might not pan out. Boston could try to package its picks up the draft board as well, but with Brooklyn allegedly cutting costs, the Celtics might be better served holding onto the Nets' unprotected picks in anticipation of next year.

If the right deal presents itself, Myles Turner would be an intriguing gamble for the Celtics. He is not, however, a can't-miss prospect, and giving away solid players and assets in exchange for a raw prospect doesn't seem like the kind of calculated move we've come to expect from Danny Ainge.



bob
MY NOTE:  "The NBA draft, for all of the scouting that goes into it year after year, is little more than a trip to the casino."  I'd say that pretty much sums it up.  As Sam has pointed out, if Red Auerbach only got it right 50% of the time (and the league was only 8-9 teams, so you never picked lower than the 8th or 9th player.  The entire first two rounds back then were the effective equivalent of today's lottery plus a few more picks, and Red still only got half of them right) then "a crap shoot" is exactly what it is. How else can you explain Beasley being picked #2 in the 2008 draft and DeAndre Jordan being picked #35?

Per the NBA Combine:
6'11 1/2" in sneakers, 239#, 7'4" wingspan, 9'4" standing reach (ranked 2nd of all players measured.  Upshaw was also 9'4"), 9.4% body fat (so he could, with conditioning, hypothetically reduce his body fat some and replace it with muscle and that would up him 10# and that's without the natural filling out with age).  Currently projected to be taken by Indy at #11.  If Indy does take him at 11, then look for Hibbert or Mahinmi to be moved.


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If Turner's weakness was getting pushed around in college, I would have to wonder if he might just get pushed right off the court in the NBA?

At 240 pounds I would think that he would not be easily pushed at the college level to the point where it must have happened enough times for some scouts/evaluators to deem this a big weakness in his game.

He may need additional physical strength like most 19 year old kids do, but what if he just does not either 'want the contact' or does not have the motor to stake out and hold his position???

As the article mentioned, he could be a huge gamble for the Celtics as they are rightfully looking for a center who can be part of an improvement to win 50 games this next season.  Waiting three years for this guy to prove himself might just not be in their time table.  If he had come along in either of the last two seasons (or maybe even in two or three seasons from now), I could have seen the Cs much more interested.  Timing can be EVERYTHING in sports in more ways than we may consider on first glance.

I'm a big fan of his potential, but take a look at his legs. Kelly Olynyk has some pretty strong legs, and Zeller does too.

Turner may just be growing into his body, but he might not have the natural "trunk" strength to be a force inside. The same thing goes for WCS though.

But with both of these guys, as long as their coaches remember that they're primarily PFs and not Cs, they'll have flourishing careers.

And there's nothing wrong with us getting our shot blocking and rebounding (and offense) injection from the PF spot. Zeller and even KO would be basically great at center if they had more length and help from the PF spot. Zeller and KO are already rock solid over all. Just not literally, unfortunately.