NBA FREE AGENT RANKINGS

2015

NBA FREE AGENT RANKINGS
by Tom Ziller | 6.21.2015


In the new NBA, every summer features a potentially huge free agency period. Shorter contracts mean there are more free agents than we used to have in a given year. Sure, some of those are Cartier Martin and Drew Gooden, but we also have guys like Brandon Knight and Danny Green.

On top of that, the salary cap explosion on its way in 2016 has led to a lot of uncertainty as teams and players angle for the best situation. Players that normally chase the longest-term contract they can will be tempted to instead sign a short-term deal to become a free agent again in the near future.

There are a number of elite restricted free agents like Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler this year. You’d expect them to stay home, but strange things happen in July. We also have a few marquee names who have only ever played for one team, like Marc Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge. With sharks like the Spurs and Mavericks lurking, those stars re-signing can’t be guaranteed.

And at the head of the class, we have the best player in the world and eternal free-agent white whale, LeBron James. Let’s dig in.

NOTE: We listed all potential free agents, including those who had player options they have already accepted or said they would accept. We did this to have all potential free agents listed and avoid any last-minute ranking tumult. We'll continue to provide updates on individual player blurbs as necessary before July 1, though rankings will not change.


1. LeBron James

Unrestricted; player option ($21.5 million)

No. 1 with an asterisk. There is basically no chance LeBron leaves Cleveland again, not after his triumphant return. But LeBron can become a free agent thanks to a clever short deal he signed in 2014, and since he can hit the market if he so chooses, he needs to be on the list. And if he’s on the list, he’s No. 1. Few thought he’d leave Miami a year ago; he ended up changing the fate of multiple franchises by opting out and navigating back to northeastern Ohio. Again, the likelihood he’d move again is even smaller now. But it’s not zero.

Needless to say, LeBron is the best player in the NBA and the only player currently active who has proven he alone is good enough to carry a team to the playoffs and even the Finals. He’s incredible. Despite the mileage he’s racked up over a career of long playoff runs, he should continue to be incredible into the future.


2. Kawhi Leonard

Restricted

One assumes that the Spurs will offer Kawhi, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and 2014’s Finals MVP, the full max contract available (roughly $90 million over five years). Leonard is fully worthy of that. But San Antonio has a history of convincing its stars to take discounts in order to support roster development and resource management. Tim Duncan, an all-time great, regularly cut the Spurs a salary break so that Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili could be retained. (In turn, those guys took less than the market would have demanded to save space for the Bruce Bowens, Matt Bonners and Tiago Splitters.)

Neither side caved in 2014 when Kawhi was eligible for an early extension and his value was sky high. Given that Leonard is restricted, the Spurs aren’t in real danger of losing him immediately: They can match any offer sheet he signs with another team. But if San Antonio doesn’t come straight out with the full max, Leonard could sign a trickier deal with another team, perhaps one that allows the star to become an unrestricted free agent in two years. (Offer sheets to RFAs must be three years at minimum, but usually can include opt-out clauses for the final year of the deal.) That’d put the Spurs on shakier ground in the post-Duncan era.

3. Marc Gasol

Unrestricted

The best center in the NBA will draw offers from all corners of the NBA map. An elite defender and skilled scorer and passer, Gasol is the total package. Though he’s 30 years old and 7-footers typically age poorly, he doesn’t have a pegged odometer (less than 20,000 NBA minutes, including playoffs) nor does he rely on athleticism to do his work. He’s a rather safe bet on a max deal.

He went to high school in Memphis and has spent his entire career there. He has a seemingly wonderful camaraderie with his teammates and the fans. There’s no indication Memphis plans to reset the team any time soon, which means Gasol can count on 50 wins and a playoff run every year until some crisis arrives.

But if Gasol feels the Zach Randolph/Mike Conley era has run its course, and if the Spurs or another team can offer a more attractive future, you can’t rule out Marc submitting to wanderlust. It’s worth noting that his big brother was a massive success in Memphis, but won championships only when he left.


4. LaMarcus Aldridge

Unrestricted

Aldridge claims the title of the best free agent folks around the league think could actually change teams. After a disappointing finish to the 2014-15 season, Aldridge has an opportunity to hear pitches from teams in his native Texas and elsewhere before committing to a long-term deal. The Spurs, Mavericks and Rockets are all rumored to be heavily interested, and the usual suspects from big markets will be chasing LMA as well. The question is whether any of them can offer a better chance to win than a future with Damian Lillard.

Aldridge, 29, is a brilliant mid-range shooter with some nifty post moves. He’s also a top defender and he’s tough as cowhide, playing the back half of the most recent season with a busted thumb. He’s good enough to make a bad team respectable or a good team elite.


5. Kevin Love

Unrestricted; player option ($16.7 million)

Love experienced a very strange season that was unfortunately ended by a freak injury in the playoffs. Now, he faces one of the most interesting decisions in the league. He can opt out of his $16.7 million contract and become a free agent a year before the massive salary spikes arrives along with a new leaguewide TV deal. Or, Love can concede the $3 million raise he’d be in line to receive to give Cleveland another season and synchronize his free agency with the higher salary cap. It’s a devilish choice.

If he does hit the market, Cleveland will try hard to retain him. Teams that offer a lower chance of winning, but more autonomy and better weather will chase hard; Love is seen at gettable, especially by the Lakers. But you’d think those losing season in Minnesota would have made Love embrace the Cavaliers tightly. Perhaps he thinks losing in L.A. would be a big improvement over losing in the tundra. We’ll see.


6. Draymond Green

Restricted

Green is one of a few young players who convincingly made a case for max contract status this season. The Swiss army knife was a huge piece of the Warriors’ epic rise, rendering David Lee irrelevant and giving the once-quiet Golden State squad enough mouth to be heard in all four corners of the union. He’s a constant triple-double threat and the runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year. That’s a crazy combination.

Green’s restricted, so there’s little chance the Warriors let him go. But this Golden State front office has a history of playing a touch of hardball with its young stars. Stephen Curry ended up signing an early extension on an incredible discount due to injury concerns, and while the Warriors gave Klay Thompson a massive contract, they waited until the last minute possible. Given the salary concerns with Harrison Barnes coming due in another year and Andrew Bogut and Andre Iguodala on the books for big chunks, we could see Golden State try to convince Green to take a small discount. There’s no telling how Green might react to that, especially since he has the option of signing the qualifying offer and becoming unrestricted for the 2016 bonanza.


7. Jimmy Butler

Restricted

Butler claimed the Most Improved Player award and became the supplemental scoring star Derrick Rose always needed. He’s in the conversation for best two-way shooting guard in the league, and he actually still has plenty of room to improve. He’s an iron man, too — Butler has played heavy minutes in Chicago and battled through a number of injuries.

The Bulls would be foolish to play any games with his free agency, but Chicago’s front office works in mysterious ways. He’s deserving of the max. If the Bulls don’t offer it, someone else should and will.

There are reports that Butler wants to sign a short-term deal so he can become a free agent sooner. That contract must be for at least three years.

8. DeAndre Jordan

Unrestricted

Jordan is the first player on our list for whom there is legitimate debate about contract size. The 26-year-old center is one of the league’s top rebounders and shot blockers, and he’s always near the top of the field goal percentage rankings. But there are serious questions about just how effective a defender he is, and the offensive efficiency is a bit beside the point considering he takes about six shots per game. His free throw shooting also remains atrocious. If he’s really not an elite defender, how much value does he really hold?

Whether Jordan is worth a max contract (starting at $20 million a year because he has seven years of NBA service) will depend on the team bidding for him and how he adjusts to playing with someone other than Chris Paul. L.A. could certainly justify paying him whatever he wants given that they’ve won 55 or more games three straight seasons with him. But there’s a solid case against tying up 30 percent of the current cap in Jordan. We’ll see.

Note that Jordan is perhaps the best candidate to take a 1-year flyer and hit free agency in 2016. He’s already made $45 million in the NBA. If he’s managed it well, that’s all the insurance he needs to delay a truly massive payday one more year.

9. Brook Lopez

Unrestricted; player option ($16.7 million)

Lopez is a walking injury report, and repeat foot injuries for 7-footers are the reddest flags in the NBA. But as he showed down the stretch of the season, Lopez is a game-changer when he’s healthy. He’s one of the few NBA centers who is a consistent bet to score better than 20 points per 36 minutes at league-average efficiency or better, plus offer some solid defense. (He has a mixed reputation on that end, and his very poor defensive rebounding doesn’t help matters. In my book, he’s no worse than average on defense as a whole when healthy.)

Lopez has made good money already, but because of his injury history, he may not be comfortable opting in and hoping for the best. If he can cash in with a deal above $60 million over four years this summer, he just may go for it. And chances are he’ll get that deal, if not a much better one.


10. Tim Duncan

Unrestricted

He’s not playing anywhere but San Antonio. The fact that he’s No. 10 on a long free agent ranking list at age 39 — and could conceivably be a few spots higher! — is a testament to how good he remains. If he decides to stay in the league, San Antonio will need to reach a deal with him early to prevent a large cap hold from tying their hands with other targets. It’ll be interesting to see how low the Spurs ask Duncan to go here at the end of his career. He made $10 million a season on his most recent contract.


11. Dwyane Wade

Unrestricted; player option ($16.1 million)

Wade would be giving up crazy amounts of potential salary if he doesn't opt out. Miami is pushing him to stay under contract to preserve its grand 2016 plans, which will require 2010-like flexibility. If the Heat must re-sign Wade now, that limits what the team can do in a year. But remember: Wade took a major pay cut in 2015 as Miami reeled from LeBron’s second decision. Wade’s max is $23.4 million, and even in his 60-games-only state, a team would give him that. When he’s on the court, he’s a top-10 producer still. If he opts in, he’s taking a 31 percent discount for a non-playoff team.

Wade is going to be an incredibly interesting free agent case study. His mix of legacy and age are rare on the open market.


12. Brandon Knight

Restricted

Placing Knight above Goran Dragic needs a robust defense — especially considering what a disaster Knight’s brief time in Phoenix was post-trade — so here goes. Knight has the advantage of youth (he’s 23). Based on his trajectory to date, he can be expected to improve. Before the trade to the Suns, he was a top contender from Most Improved Player and a darkhorse All-Star candidate (because Eastern Conference). His field goal percentage is troubling, but he takes a ton of threes and has been consistently solid from behind the arc. That buoys his overall shooting efficiency to somewhere around average.

His defensive numbers have been rough, but I believe in his brains and quickness. Point guard defense is a learned skill. He’s not the most amazing passer in the league, but he’s effective and has tamped down his turnovers. Given that he’s restricted and not a max contract candidate, he’s going to a massive bargain for the next four years, provided he improves at a reasonable rate. If Knight gets around $12 million per season, by the 2016-17 season he’ll be taking up about 13 percent of a team’s cap for potentially above-average starters’ production at a critical position. That’s huge!

Knight may never be as good as Dragic is now, but because of years of service and restricted free agency, he’ll be cheaper. That counts in a capped environment.


13. Goran Dragic

Unrestricted; player option ($7.5 million)

Dragic is a really solid starting point guard, Miami’s best in a decade (if not longer). He’s not a regular 20-point scorer or someone likely to tally 10 assists, but he provides some good offensive punch and he’s at least been on a good defensive team (the 2014 Suns). Just 29, you’d think he could recapture the magic of that incredible season. It does, however, look a bit like a fluke year. That said, his game is so Tony Parker smart that he should age pretty well. Locking him up up above $14 million or so could work out in the end.


14. Danny Green

Unrestricted

Green is the youngest 27-year-old on the planet. He still doesn’t even have 10,000 total NBA minutes under his belt. He’s also never been paid more than $4 million in a season. Little attention has been paid to Green as San Antonio opens up its books in search of another star to pair with Kawhi Leonard for the next four years. For that reason, Green feels eminently gettable. He’s only one of the league’s most prolific and effective deep shooters and an excellent defender. He should command upwards of $12 million a year.


15. Roy Hibbert

Unrestricted; Player option ($15.5 million)

Interestingly, Indiana seems to have dared Hibbert to opt out by suggesting his role will be diminished in 2015-16. A classic defensive center who controls the paint with length and shot-blocking acumen, Hibbert has seen his stock plummet since late in the 2013-14 season, when the big man turned in some poor playoff efforts. He’s still one of the tallest humans in the league and an excellent rim protector. The question is whether he can be more somewhere else. He ought to opt in and rehab his image, then hit the salary bonanza in 2016.

16. Greg Monroe

Unrestricted

Monroe famously called Detroit’s bluff and accepted the 1-year qualifying offer in 2015 after finding a reluctant market. Now that he’s unrestricted, he’ll have an easier time separating from the Pistons if he so chooses. Monroe hasn’t grown his game much at all in the NBA, but he’s a solid No. 3 scorer and brilliant rebounder. If he can be turned into a plus defender, he could be a steal at below the max this summer.

17. Tristan Thompson

Restricted

Given that Thompson shares an agent with LeBron, it’s a lock that Cleveland shells out big cash to keep the young Canadian. He’s proven his worth, becoming one of the league’s best offensive rebounders and a credible defender. He doesn’t figure much on offense other than on the boards and as a diver on the pick and roll, but a Cleveland team with LeBron, Kyrie Irving and maybe Love needs little else from its other big men.

18. Timofey Mozgov

Unrestricted; Team option ($5 million)

There is no chance the Cavaliers decline the team option on Mozgov, unless the big Russian pulls a Boozer. Mozgov, a burly defense-first big man, is just perfect for the Cavaliers and an absolute steal at $5 million. His next contract will be in eight figures.

19. Paul Millsap

Unrestricted

Millsap has been the same player for years now, with one wrinkle: he can shoot the three these days. You know what you’re getting with him, as long as he ages well (he’s now 30). He’s a 16-18 points per game scorer, a very solid defensive rebounder, a credible defender of traditional fours and a mid-range shooter par excellence. Over the last two years, he’s added the triple, where he’s solid from beyond the arc and better from the corners. He should command a pretty penny, especially if he’s not sold on staying in Atlanta.

20. Khris Middleton

Restricted

Middleton looks like the classic role player who gets massively overpaid based on one really good season, a la Bobby Simmons. Here’s how Middleton is different: he’ll be just 24 next season with two strong deep-shooting seasons and he’s excelled under two (very) different coaches. He’s more proven than you think. Given the future of the salary cap, you wonder if a team will throw $15 million per year or more at him to see if Milwaukee blinks.

21. Robin Lopez

Unrestricted

RoLo is a center who knows his role offensively (an efficient, low-volume scorer who eats on the pick-and-roll) and is a really solid defender without hunting down blocks. He’s a top offensive rebounder and a dreadful defensive rebounder, so fit is a concern — I wouldn’t trust him on teams reliant on smallball lineups. But as a plus player at a premium position, Lopez is a very attractive free agent.

22. DeMarre Carroll

Unrestricted

Carroll is similar to Middleton but older (29 in July) and with a stronger defensive reputation. He’s also unrestricted, which could lead to a massive payday. LeBron thoroughly dominated him in the playoffs, though he was playing through an injury. It’s hard to hold that against Carroll — who doesn’t LeBron dominate? — but it’ll be something teams consider heavily before backing up the armored truck in free agency.

23. Thaddeus Young

Unrestricted; Early Termination Option ($10.2 million)

Young has always had the athleticism to play either forward spot, but he’s not a credible deep shooter, so he’s a full-time four. At that spot, he’s a poor rebounder, but still good for 15 points per game and some surprisingly able defense. His steal rate is a bit stunning for a power forward, and though he seems too thin to guard traditional fours, he can get the job done. He’s also just 26. He elected to opt out and become a free agent rather than waiting a year, hoping he thrived with more time in Brooklyn and cashing in during the 2016 bonanza.

24. Wesley Matthews

Unrestricted

Matthews is an odd case. He tore his Achilles late in the season and might not play until midseason. Before the injury, he was in line for a massive payday as one of the best wing defenders in the NBA and a prolific deep shooter. There’s no telling how the market will approach Matthews or what ideas his agent has in securing Wesley’s future.

25. Eric Gordon

Unrestricted; Player option ($15.5 million)

The Pelicans’ highest-paid player has a chance to lock in another long, rich deal. What a weird career he’s had, though. He had his best shooting season ever in 2014-15, but he’s really stopped driving to the rim much and has gone from a 20-point scorer to a 13-point scorer in just a few years. (He’s still only 26.) If Gordon is put into a position to rediscover his once prodigious dribble-drive game to pair with his tremendous shooting stroke, he can be a top-7 two-guard. Otherwise, he’s turning into an Anthony Morrow. That’s fine, but that’s not worth $15 million. UPDATE: Gordon picked up his player option.

26. Al Jefferson

Unrestricted; Player option ($13.5 million)

Big Al didn’t deserve to be paired with Lance Stephenson. He’s 30 with lots of miles, the most old-school power forward in the league and needs to be a No. 2 scorer at this point. Let him be someone’s 2013 David West.

UPDATE: Jefferson elected to opt in and delay free agency for a year.

27. Tobias Harris

Restricted

Harris probably felt pretty good about returning to Orlando until they hired his old coach, Scott Skiles. He's a solid No. 2 scorer and mid-range shooter. It’s fitting that he’s been linked to the Knicks; he’s a (very) poor man’s Carmelo Anthony.

28. Reggie Jackson

Restricted

Detroit didn’t give up much to land Jackson, so there’s no particular imperative to retain him. He’ll either be a high-scoring starter on a mediocre team or a Sixth Man of the Year candidate on a good team. Nothing in between. I’d be extremely nervous about paying him eight figures if not for the exploding salary cap.

29. Monta Ellis

Unrestricted; Player option ($8.7 million)

The Mavericks complained about Rajon Rondo ruining their team. Monta should be mad at the team for bringing Rondo into the backcourt. He made Ellis’ surprisingly-excellent playmaking less relevant and depressed his free agent value. If Monta is your No. 2 scorer and you have shooters at two or more other starting positions, you’re in great shape offensively. Monta could also be a new Manu if the right team brought him off the bench. Somehow, he’s just 29.

30. Jae Crowder

Restricted

Sign him to a modest contract around the mid-level, invest in a shooting coach, ask him to defend the opponents’ best wing every night and see where you are in two years. This is the type of player you chase if you want to grab a Middleton or Carroll before they are getting serious paper.

31. Lou Williams

Unrestricted

It’s hard to shell out huge money to a player you cannot start under any circumstances. Williams is a top-3 lightning bug in the league; he’d be a nice option at an Isaiah Thomas type contract ($7-8 million per year). Given that he just won hardware, he might be aiming higher. That’s a bit scary, even though he’s only 28.

32. Tyson Chandler

Unrestricted

Chandler isn’t too worn out to anchor a defense. He is too old to be the only decent defender on a team. He’d be super interesting as a (potentially) cheaper alternative to Omer Asik and a mentor in New Orleans.

33. Rodney Stuckey

Unrestricted

Stuckey finally shot well from deep last season, but he doesn’t take many threes and the evidence in total suggests he’s a mediocre gunner. He can score, though. Just not efficiently. Stuckey should be a fourth-option starting point guard or a flexible bench playmaker. Don’t expect him to creep too far above the mid-level.

34. Ed Davis

Unrestricted; Player option ($1.1 million)

Davis should opt out by lighting his contract on fire in front of the Lakers’ practice facility. He’s the perfect role-playing power forward to slot next to a high-scoring center, of which there are many in the NBA. (There are not.) One of the league’s best rebounders. Would be a good running mate for Brook Lopez.

35. Iman Shumpert

Restricted

Shump, like most players in this range, needs the right role to succeed. For evidence, see how much more productive he was as a defense-first role player in Cleveland vs. his half-season in New York. He can shoot when needed, dribble the ball (an underrated basketball skill!) and guard most ones and twos fairly well.

36. Luol Deng

Unrestricted; Player option ($10.1 million)

Deng had a perfectly cromulent season in Miami, where he did many Luol Deng things. His free agency decision will be real interesting. It seems extremely unlikely he’ll remain in Miami beyond 2015-16, so he might as well opt out if he can get a long-term, lucrative deal now. He’s no longer an All-World defender, but he’s smart and is a proper No. 3 scorer. It might be time for him to be a top reserve.

37. Jared Dudley

Unrestricted; Early Termination Option ($4.3 million)

Dudley had a bounce-back season for Milwaukee, and his combination of strong wing defense and able deep shooting should make him a relatively hot commodity around the mid-level. Most teams would bring him off of the bench, but if smallball gains an even stronger foothold, he could find himself a starter. The asterisk here is that with Jabari Parker coming back, Dudley might not be in the Bucks’ plans, especially if they pay through the nose to keep Middleton.

38. Kosta Koufos

Unrestricted

The third big man every good team wants. The question is whether Koufos and his agent think the center is starter-quality and whether some team will buy that argument. If so, he’ll get too expensive for Memphis and find himself in new environs. His free agency should be especially interesting given all of the trade rumors surrounding him over the years.

39. Arron Afflalo

Unrestricted; Player option ($7.8 million)

Over time, Afflalo has simultaneously became overrated as a defender (he’s alright) and underrated offensively (he’s a fine shooter at volume and sure-handed). He was cast perfectly as a back-up for Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum before Matthews’ injury. He’s another great candidate to be a top reserve.

40. Patrick Beverley

Restricted

His value is all about defense. Luckily for him, point guard defense is one of the league’s most essential skills. The concern is over his injury history, the bad karma his quasi-dirty play carries and his lack of much offensive usefulness.

41. David West

Unrestricted; Player option ($12.6 million)

West is quickly nearing the end of his productive career, but he still gives you veteran leadership, some nifty mid-range and post production and an air of defensive toughness.

42. Paul Pierce

Unrestricted; Player option ($5.5 million)

Pierce hit some huge shots in the playoffs, and he’s the soul of the Wizards. He’s also ancient, and his best spot — as a stretch four — is rife with defensive problems. He’s still a fine rotation player, but he really ought to be coming off of the bench if the supporting cast isn’t elite defensively. Pierce plans to opt out and choose between a new deal with Washington and a reunion with Doc Rivers in Los Angeles.

43. Brandan Wright

Unrestricted

Wright is a new-school center who blocks shots and dunks everything. He’s a JV version of Tyson Chandler, more or less. As we’ve learned from Chandler, this type of center needs a virtuoso point guard and a coach who believes in defense first. That said, he’s likely to be a steal for the umpteenth consecutive season.

44. Jeff Green

Unrestricted; Player option ($9.2 million)

None of us know how to rank Jeff Green at anything. (UPDATE: Green picked up his player option).

45. Corey Brewer

Unrestricted; Player option ($4.9 million)

A mortal lock to end up playing for George Karl in Sacramento. A really bad shooter (like Josh Smith bad), but he has some of the quickest defensive hands of his generation. Needs badly to play on a team that flies, like the Rockets.

46. Al-Farouq Aminu

Unrestricted; Player option ($1.1 million)

Defense matters. This is a good thing for Al-Farouq Aminu, because he’s actually allergic to the ball.

47. Omer Asik

Unrestricted

It’s time to start asking whether Asik is even a good team defender. He looked great in Chicago, but so does everyone. Houston’s defense improved a bunch this season despite Asik’s flight and Dwight Howard being injured, while New Orleans’ defense was not great with Asik and Anthony Davis up front. I’m newly skeptical of Asik’s NBA usefulness.

48. Josh Smith

Unrestricted

He’s still one of the most interesting, infuriating players to watch. With the right coach, he could have a marvelous third act to his career. He just needs a muffler on his offense and a persistent motor on defense.

49. Amir Johnson

Unrestricted

Johnson is a player who did actually reach his potential. It’s just that his potential was well off from what we had thought it’d be. He’s a low-usage offensive player who can do some interesting things defensively while being undersized. As with most free agents in this range, he ought to be a top reserve, not a starter. (And especially not a starter next to a low-scoring center.)

50. Enes Kanter

Restricted

Reverse Ben Wallace. A brilliant post scorer who couldn’t stop traffic with a red light, a cop car or a barricade. You remember Yi Jianlian’s epic workout against a La-Z-Boy? That was actually Enes Kanter disguised as a chair.

51. J.R. Smith

Player option — $6.4 million

Cleveland basically has to keep him now. A streaky shooter, a fine athlete, a credible defender against the right opponent and an absolute goofball who is near the top of the "most likely to be suspended for something ridiculously stupid" rankings every year.

52. Jordan Hill

Team option — $9 million

The Lakers are going to decline this option by setting it on fire in front of Hill’s locker. Hill can actually be quite useful, perhaps even as a starter. But he was severely miscast under Byron Scott in L.A., and he badly needs a stern coach who will put him spots to succeed. Mike D’Antoni actually did a fair job of this.

53. Rajon Rondo

I’m afraid it’s time to give up belief that Rajon Rondo is anything resembling a top-flight point guard. Unless he completely rebuilds his jumper and gets his free throw stroke back — certainly possible — he’s a Brevin Knight without the defense out there.

54. Manu Ginobili

A living legend good for a few stunning plays a week and a big game here and there.

55. Gerald Henderson

Player option — $6 million

You might think Henderson belongs higher, but he’s a rather infrequent deep shooter (less than two per game) and not very good when he does fire away (33 percent last season). There are better 3-and-D options. (UPDATE: Henderson picked up his player option)

56. Dorell Wright

Need a shooter? Here’s a shooter!

57. Matthew Dellavedova

Restricted

Finals heroics aside, he’s a rather limited but tough and hard-working backup point guard. You could do much worse. You could also do better.

58. Bismack Biyombo

Restricted

At least he’s still young … we think.

59. Marco Belinelli

Let it be said that plenty of shooters are available this summer. Belinelli could be a bargain.

60. Mike Dunleavy

Lil’ Dun is a really able bench scorer and a veteran unafraid of agitating opposing stars with elbows, trips and occasionally fists.

61. Marreese Speights

Team option — $3.8 million

Speights was a legit Sixth Man of the Year candidate, so the Warriors will likely keep this deal on the books. He’s turned into a nice pick-and-pop option and a bit of a microwave scorer.

62. Leandro Barbosa

Still got it!

63. Wayne Ellington

A really affordable gunner who will look a lot better with decent teammates around him. A potential starter on the right team.

64. Andre Miller

The Professor has another 20 years in him. Hopefully all with George Karl.

65. Darrell Arthur

No one has any idea what to make of him. Stop lying if you think you do.

66. Jason Terry

His resurgence in Houston is one of the more improbable things we saw in 2015. That will get him another contract. I’d be afraid if my team gave him that contract.

67. Mirza Teletovic

Restricted

Teletovic has one important skill (firing up threes) that makes him worth an investment from the right team. (He’ll also turn 30 before opening night.)

68. Kyle Singler

Restricted

An interesting prospect still, but his only NBA skill at this point is deep shooting. Not a passer or finisher inside, and only a mediocre defender.

69. Gerald Green

Nice.

70. Norris Cole

Restricted

Surprisingly competent in NoLa. Two-time NBA champion.

71. Austin Rivers

The entire market for Austin Rivers is his dad’s team. So yeah. It’d be hilarious, though, if another squad got into a fake bidding war just to see how high Doc would go.

72. Cory Joseph

Restricted

Joseph is anachronistic in that he doesn’t shoot many threes and has a really excellent field goal percentage. Like Patty Mills, his game is styled in the Tony Parker fashion. He could be a steal for the right team.

73. Kevin Garnett

It’d be really weird if a team other than Minnesota bid on his services.

74. Pero Antic

Restricted

His shot abandoning him isn’t good for his value.

75. Omri Casspi

Surprisingly good under George Karl late in the season. Willing to run and has a smooth jumper. He’s also one of the few to crack through DeMarcus Cousins’ tough personal shell.

76. Kevin Seraphin

A pretty solid backup big who can score a decent amount and do it efficiently.

77. Brandon Bass

You know what you’re getting. Solid, unspectacular.

78. Mo Williams

He’s still viable in the NBA!

79. Nick Calathes

Restricted

Decent backup point guard, but not a shooter, scorer or finisher.

80. Gigi Datome

Restricted

He could be a great shooter in the NBA, or he could be the latest great European shooter who struggles to adjust. We have too little data to know.

81. Kyle O’Quinn

Restricted

I am intrigued by O’Quinn and think that if you can steal from Orlando and you have an opening for a third big, you should go for it. Interesting skill set.

82. C.J. Watson

The prototypical backup point guard. He’s lower than others because there’s not much potential for upside here. You know what you’re getting.

83. Beno Udrih

Player option — $2.2 million

84. Tyler Hansbrough

Draws a suspicious amount of free throws for someone who seems to dribble aimlessly into people.

85. Thomas Robinson

He can rebound!

86. Aron Baynes

Restricted

A fourth big man, provided he’s recovered from Blake Griffin devouring his soul.

87. Jonas Jerebko

88. Glen Davis

If Vines were pay-worthy stats, he’d be a max guy.

89. Jeremy Lin

So inefficient. The turnovers just tank his value in my opinion.

90. Richard Jefferson

91. Aaron Brooks

92. Andrea Bargnani

This year’s favorite to sign for the minimum with the Spurs and become a vital cog.

93. Chase Budinger

94. Gary Neal

95. Cole Aldrich

96. Joel Freeland

Restricted

97. Alexis Ajinca

98. K.J. McDaniels

Restricted

The data is not good.

99. Marcus Thornton

100. Jameer Nelson

Player option — $2.9 million

In full disclosure, I had to look up what team he finished the season on.

101. Derrick Williams

Restricted

My thoughts on Derrick Williams’ NBA future would be longer than this entire free agent rankings piece.

102. Steve Blake

Player option — $2.2 million

103. Reggie Evans

104. Amare Stoudemire

He’s not un-useful.

105. Luis Scola

106. Quincy Acy

Restricted

A young Earl Barron.

107. Henry Sims

Restricted

108. Lavoy Allen

109. Jason Smith

110. Rasual Butler

111. Shane Larkin

If you think Knicksness is a communicable disease he suffered from him this season, he might be worth a flyer.

112. Will Barton

Restricted

Struggling to find his one NBA skill.

113. Drew Gooden

Ugh.

114. Donald Sloan

115. Alan Anderson

Player option — $1.3 million

Holy heck, Alan Anderson is already 32!

116. Jeff Taylor

Restricted

117. Ish Smith

118. Jeremy Evans

119. Alexey Shved

Restricted

Shved’s per-minute scoring is outrageous. Alas, he has never shot 40 percent in a season.

120. Ryan Hollins

He tipped that ball, Memphis. I will never forget.

121. Michael Beasley

Team option — $1.3 million

He can be a superstar in China or Alan Anderson in the NBA.

122. J.J. Barea

123. Chuck Hayes

124. Chris Copeland

Restricted

An obviously complicated case here.

125. Tayshaun Prince

126. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute

127. Travis Wear

Restricted

128. Carlos Boozer

He looks like toast, but he could actually be much better than the others in this zone.

129. Justin Hamilton

Restricted

This is the dude from the Heat, FYI.

130. Justin Holiday

Restricted

131. Charlie Villanueva

132. Bernard James

Restricted

133. Kirk Hinrich

Player option — $2.9 million

I would say the Bulls should do everything they can to force Hinrich to opt out, but this is the Bulls.

134. Raymond Felton

Player option — $4 million

135. Cartier Martin

Player option — $1.3 million

136. Jason Richardson

137. Wesley Johnson

I seriously don’t understand why teams still act like they are interested in Wes for anything more than a roster filler role.

138. Shawne Williams

139. Greg Smith

140. Danny Granger

Renaissance Potential Meter is floating around 10 percent.

141. Jimmer Fredette

Sigh.

142. Matt Bonner

143. Alonzo Gee

144. Brandon Rush

Player option — $1.3 million

Huge sleeper potential.

145. Ronnie Price

146. Luke Babbitt

147. Kendrick Perkins

148. Ekpe Udoh

Sign him for his book club. Any minutes are a bonus!

149. Jeff Ayres

150. Arinze Onuaku

Restricted

151. Jeff Withey

Restricted

152. Shayne Whittington

Restricted

153. Ognjen Kuzmic

Restricted

154. James Jones

155. Jason Maxiell

156. Elton Brand

157. John Jenkins

158. Mike Miller

Player option — $2.9 million

159. Jerome Jordan

Restricted

160. Shawn Marion

He’s retiring right on time.

161. Jorge Gutierrez

Restricted

162. John Lucas III

163. Vander Blue

Restricted

164. Glen Robinson III

Restricted

165. Robbie Hummel

Restricted

A young Lou Amundson!

166. Lou Amundson

167. Lance Thomas

168. Will Bynum

169. Garrett Temple

Player option — $1.1 million

UPDATE: Temple picked up his player option.

170. Nazr Mohammed

171. Joel Anthony

172. Dahntay Jones

173. Willie Green

174. Hedo Turkoglu

Why yes, there are a lot of 2014-15 L.A. Clippers reserves down here!

175. Landry Fields

176. Ian Clark

Restricted

177. Greg Stiemsma

178. Joe Ingles

Restricted

179. Earl Barron

I’m so sorry, Earl Barron. But hey, you’ve been in the NBA off and on for 11 years and you have a ring. Everything else is gravy.

112288

To say that Rajon Rondo needs to get his free throw stroke back implies that he actually had a free throw stroke at one point.  I must have missed that game.

Tough to get excited about restricted free agents.  I can't understand the realistic appeal.  If they're worth having, they should be re-signed.

Sam

Sam,
can you sticky this at the top for reference?

nice to be able to find it in the coming weeks.

and

oh man, they don't like Asik much it seems.

Yes, Sam, please Sticky this. It will be a great reference tool come Thursday and the following weeks to free agency. 58 hours and counting!!

db

SB nation guess as to where their top 50 players will sign and for how much.



http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/6/30/8868203/nba-free-agency-predictions-kevin-love-lamarcus-aldridge


Here are predictions on where the top 50 NBA free agents will sign

By Tom Ziller@teamziller on Jun 30, 2015, 10:19a 8













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And guesses at how much they'll make, too.


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NBA free agency begins at midnight on the East Coast. If history is any guide, deals will start flying around early in the morning. It'll begin not with a top free agent, but an Arron Afflalo or a Kosta Koufos or a Corey Brewer. To prime the pump and get you thinking about what magic might come, we took the top 50 free agents according to our comprehensive rankings and predicted what contracts they would sign with whom.

Be warned: this is almost certainly completely wrong, the math almost assuredly does not add up and half of these contracts may not even be legal under salary cap rules. If you can ignore all of that, enjoy!

1. LeBron James: He will sign a two-year deal with a player option in Year 2 with the Cavaliers.
2. Kawhi Leonard: Max contract with the Spurs.
3. Marc Gasol: Max contract with the Grizzlies.
4. LaMarcus Aldridge: 4-year near-max with the Spurs.
5. Kevin Love: 5-year max with the Cavaliers.
6. Draymond Green: 5-year just under the max with the Warriors.
7. Jimmy Butler: 3-year max offer sheet with the Lakers, matched by the Bulls.
8. DeAndre Jordan: 4-year max with the Mavericks. Your time to shine, Ekpe Udoh!
9. Brook Lopez: 5-year max with the Nets. (Gulp.)
10. Tim Duncan: Like $3.50 or so with the Spurs.
11. Dwyane Wade: 5 years, $82 million with the Heat.
12. Brandon Knight: 5 years, $70 million with the Suns. (Thanks, early media reports!)
13. Goran Dragic: 5 years, $80 million with the Heat.
14. Danny Green: 4 years, $48 million with Your Sacramento Kings! (Wishful thinking.) (4 years, $48 million with the Blazers.)
15. Roy Hibbert: He opted in.
16. Greg Monroe: 2 years, $30 million with the Knicks.
17. Tristan Thompson: 5 years, $55 million with the Cavaliers.
18. Timofey Mozgov: The team picked up his option.
19. Paul Millsap: 2 years, $38 million with the Rockets.
20. Khris Middleton: 4 years, $40 million with the Bucks.
21. Robin Lopez: 2 years, $18 million with the Lakers.
22. DeMarre Carroll: 4 years, $40 million with the Hawks.
23. Thaddeus Young: 4 years, $44 million with the Nets.
24. Wesley Matthews: 4 years, $52 million with the Mavericks, last year only $2 million guaranteed.
25. Eric Gordon: He opted in.
26. Al Jefferson: He opted in.
27. Tobias Harris: 4 years, $40 million with the Celtics.
28. Reggie Jackson: 4 years, $42 million with the Pistons.
29. Monta Ellis: 3 years, $33 million with the Kings. Yeah, I know.
30. Jae Crowder: 4 years, $28 million with the Celtics.
31. Lou Williams: 3 years, $30 million with the Mavericks. No, I don't know how they are affording all of these players. I'm bad at math, OK?
32. Tyson Chandler: 2-year mini mid-level with the Clippers.
33. Rodney Stuckey: 3-year mid-level with Hawks, team option after Year 2.
34. Ed Davis: 2 years, $18 million with Celtics.
35. Iman Shumpert: 4 years, $36 million with Cavaliers.
36. Luol Deng: He opted in.
37. Jared Dudley: 3-year mid-level with Raptors.
38. Kosta Koufos: 2 years, $15 million with Grizzlies.
39. Arron Afflalo: 4 years, $44 million with Knicks.
40. Patrick Beverley: 4-year mid-level with Bulls.
41. David West: 2 years, $12 million with Knicks.
42. Paul Pierce: 2 years, $10 million with Lakers (!) with player option for Year 2.
43. Brandan Wright: 1 year, $5 million or something with Mavericks.
44. Jeff Green: He opted in.
45. Corey Brewer: 4-year full mid-level with Kings. Ugh.
46. Al-Farouq Aminu: 2-year mid-level with Pelicans.
47. Omer Asik: 4 years, $40 million with Pelicans.
48. Josh Smith: 2 years, $15 million with Rockets.
49. Amir Johnson: 3 years, $30 million with Pacers.
50. Enes Kanter: 4 years, $40 million with Thunder.

Jimmy Butler was planning to meet with the Celtics, but the Bulls pre-empted by making a max qualifying offer.

So he is off the table.


bob


.

I can't see Brook ranked a head of Robin from the viewpoint of Celtics needs.  In fact, a lot of these ranking might be altered if the Celtics were the frame of reference.

Sam

The Celtics have declined to make a qualifying offer to Gigi Datome making him an unrestricted free agent.

Farewell and buona fortuna Gigi, we hardly knew ye.

Tom Ziller now takes a stab at predicting where the top 50 free agents will go:

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/6/30/8868203/nba-free-agency-predictions-kevin-love-lamarcus-aldridge

Tobias Harris, 4 years, $40 million to Boston? He'll get more somewhere else. Jae Crowder four years $28 million to stay with Boston? Wow. $7 mil per year for Crowder? We like him but that much? 2 years, $18 million for Ed Davis to come to Boston?? Yikes.

Hey Mitch.  Keep your hands off Robin Lopez.  He's ours.

Sam

Rumor is that Bucks and Celtics have SOME interest in Enes Kanter.

Focus, Danny, focus. Defense, defense, defense.

Young and B. Lopez resign with Nets

Leonard 5 year max with SA

Aminu 4yr/$30M deal with Portland (replaces Batum there)

Middleton max deal back at Milwaukee (reported only)

that's all I've read so far this morning

CSNNE.com @CSNNE
Mannix: Amir Johnson, Gerald Green and Robin Lopez on #Celtics radar - @ChrisMannixSI http://cmcst.sn/49m
10:11 PM - 30 Jun 2015
29 29 Retweets 14 14 favorites



Adrian Wojnarowski ✔@WojYahooNBA
Houston free agent Corey Brewer had phone conversations with the Rockets, Celtics and Knicks tonight, league sources tell Yahoo.
11:17 PM - 30 Jun 2015
664 664 Retweets 423 423 favorites



Adrian Wojnarowski ✔@WojYahooNBA
The Boston Celtics are still awaiting word on whether they'll get a meeting with Cleveland free agent Kevin Love, league source tells Yahoo.
8:38 PM - 30 Jun 2015
861 861 Retweets 697 697 favorites



gary washburn @GwashburnGlobe
8 teams have inquired about Brandon Bass, #Celtics were not on that list but may be concentrating in more pressing needs.
10:31 PM - 30 Jun 2015 · Waltham, MA, United States
40 40 Retweets 36 36 favorites



bob



.

Keith PompeyVerified account
‏@PompeyOnSixers
#Sixers decline qualifying offers to Sims, Robinson III http://po.st/J2N2Zf  via @phillysport


Abby Chin
@tvabby 56 mins ago
Oh man. Henry Sims is available. I know @CSNTommy is a fan! twitter.com/pompeyonsixers…

Reply Retweet Favorite



bob
MY NOTE:  Considering they have Embiid (if he ever does play!), Okafur and Noel no wonder they are letting Sims go.

7', 245#, 7'4" wingspan.  Despite all that, he still averages about the same number of blocks/36mpg as 7'0" alligator-armed Kelly Olynyk.


.

Josh Newman
@Joshua_Newman 57 mins ago
Whether or not it's shocking, Al-Farouq Aminu at 4 years, $30 million is now the baseline price for help on the wing. Have fun with that.

Reply Retweet Favorite


.

Remember that although some of these numbers seem a bit too much, the back end of these 4-year deals will take place after the salary cap numbers increase substantially.

The players know this, the agents know this and the team management people know this. Short-term overpayment is the cost of signing these guys for 3-4 year terms.

gyso

gyso wrote:Remember that although some of these numbers seem a bit too much, the back end of these 4-year deals will take place after the salary cap numbers increase substantially.

The players know this, the agents know this and the team management people know this.  Short-term overpayment is the cost of signing these guys for 3-4 year terms.

gyso

gyso,

Exactly so. Good thing to remember.


bob


.

This looks like it will be a very big day for the Spurs.
Kawai Leonard is re-signing for the max.
Danny Green is re-signing for 4/$45m.
Now, they have traded Splitter to Atlanta which opens the way to sign Aldridge.
Wow!



Adrian WojnarowskiVerified account
‏@WojYahooNBA   The San Antonio Spurs have traded center Tiago Splitter to the Atlanta Hawks, league sources tell Yahoo Sports.

tjmakz wrote:This looks like it will be a very big day for the Spurs.
Kawai Leonard is re-signing for the max.
Danny Green is re-signing for 4/$45m.
Now, they have traded Splitter to Atlanta which opens the way to sign Aldridge.
Wow!



Adrian WojnarowskiVerified account
‏@WojYahooNBA   The San Antonio Spurs have traded center Tiago Splitter to the Atlanta Hawks, league sources tell Yahoo Sports.

And Pop didn't even have to stay up past his bedtime to do it.


bob


.

Btw, I don't see where anybody posted this, but Danny's first call last night was to Corey Brewer.

SG/SF 6'9", 185#.  29 years old.  Nice height for a SF and phenomenal height for a SG.


http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/breweco01.html

Not a good mid-range shooter.  More of a 3-and-D player but runs the floor very well.  Can play 2 positions.  Brad's type of guy.





bob


.

Brewer is a nice 6th or 7th man.
Boston really doesn't need him if they re-sign Crowder.
They are very similar players.

I'm not usually a Mannix fan, but I like his insight that the Celts are interested in Robin Lopez.

Sam

With that many teams inquiring about Bass, could a sign-and-trade be in the offing.  Just the kind of opportunistic, bonus-type maneuver Danny would pull.

Sam

2015 NBA free-agency tracker

From Ball Don't Lie

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/2015-nba-free-agency-tracker-001329692.html

This is a good way to see things as time passes. The most recent tweets are at the top. Scroll down to see older ones.

gyso

Spurs "will never go away":

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/rest-nba-terrified-spurs-doing-163937057.html