Who's The Odd Man Out For The Celtics?

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4719933/whos-odd-man-out-for-celtics

Who's odd man out for Celtics?

Chris Forsberg, ESPN Staff Writer

Emptying out the suitcase from summer league and unpacking some leftover thoughts on the Boston Celtics:

No vacancy

There's still plenty of time before training camp convenes in late September and the Celtics are certainly still looking for ways to improve both the overall talent level of their roster and the positional balance. At the moment, however, Boston projects to have 16 guaranteed contracts and it raises the question: Who's the odd man out?

Let's start with a look at Boston's current depth chart (utilizing Brad Stevens' preferred four-position system) while accounting for the eventual re-signing of Jae Crowder and a swap that will deliver David Lee from the Golden State Warriors.

• Ball handlers: Marcus Smart, Isaiah Thomas, Terry Rozier, Evan Turner

• Wings: Avery Bradley, James Young, R.J. Hunter

• Swings: Jae Crowder, Jonas Jerebko, Perry Jones

• Bigs: David Lee, Amir Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, Jared Sullinger, Tyler Zeller, Jordan Mickey

Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge laughed during the summer league when asked about the logjam in the frontcourt -- if only because he'd been peppered with questions about how the team appeared to have too many guards in the immediate aftermath of the NBA draft. But there's clearly not enough minutes to go around up front. You can make a case that eight players -- exactly half the roster at this moment -- are vying for minutes at the power forward position.

Let's say the Celtics cannot find another move before the start of the season, at least without taking 50 cents on the dollar for one of their bigs. Typically you'd be looking at the player with the lowest salary to eat, but that might not ultimately be a major issue for a team that projects to be well under the tax line.

Initially, it's likely Perry who will face the longest odds. In sending cash considerations as part of last week's trade, the Oklahoma City Thunder are essentially paying his salary regardless of whether he's on Boston's roster (and Boston got Detroit's second-round pick in 2019 for its troubles).

That said, if Perry shows some potential, Boston won't hesitate to examine other potential trimdown options. Heck, 10 of the 16 players on the team's roster will earn $3.4 million or less next season and, again, with no tax concerns, eating some salary isn't as much of an issue as it might have been in past seasons. Making another move or finding a team that will give up a pick is far more preferable, but Boston can simply cut bait without too much regret.

If Perry shows he deserves to stick on the roster, things get a bit trickier for Boston. Evan Turner's role is murkier this season, though Marcus Smart's hand injury could force Boston to consider extra ball-handling depth. It would seem unlikely that the Celtics would give up on any of their recent draft picks. Ultimately, it might come down to how long Boston is willing to hold out before trimming down and maybe a team develops a need that the Celtics can help fill.

Hey Mickey!

Both team and player have to be happy with the four-year, $5 million deal inked by second-round pick Jordan Mickey.

Mickey will earn nearly twice as much this season as a rookie second-rounder that signs a typical minimum-salary deal. And he gets some security with the first two years of his contract guaranteed. Mickey is essentially being paid like the No. 26 pick at 100 percent of the rookie scale (or a fictional 33rd first-round pick at 120 percent, like most rookies sign for).

Meanwhile, the Celtics walk away with the four-year deal that protects their investment. If Mickey emerges as a rotation player, they've got him for four years at a bargain rate and the ability to keep him here into the future. If he never quite blossoms, those nonguaranteed seasons make him a tradable asset down the road.

As former Nets assistant general manager Bobby Marks noted on Twitter, six of the first seven second-round picks to sign this summer were inked for three years or more. Teams are hip now to maximizing those picks by using cap space or a small bit of the midlevel exception to generate longer-term deals.

Win sharing is caring

A Sports Illustrated article projected the 2015-16 standings based on win shares lost/generated during the offseason and has Boston at 47.4 wins and the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference.

At 47 wins, that's a seven-win improvement from last season and a two-spot jump in the playoff seedings. The Celtics are spotlighted for that potential leap with a note, "The rebuilding job at the Garden continues to zoom along without a hitch. The Celtics will be a ton of fun to watch in 2015-16, and should expect to improve on their playoff seeding from last season."

While some Boston fans continue to lament the lack of a big-splash addition, this is one of the more encouraging outlooks following Boston's offseason tinkering.

Summer school

Boston's four rookies did well for themselves at summer league. The question that remains to be answered is whether any of the first-year players will have an impact on next year's squad.

Marcus Thornton, the team's final pick at No. 45, is headed overseas to start his pro career (as expected when Boston drafted him). But will Terry Rozier (16th overall), R.J. Hunter (28), or Mickey (33) muscle their way into the rotation?

Rozier's defense probably gives him the best chance of getting on the floor, and his speed is tantalizing. The Celtics need to help him harness that speed and turn it into a consistent weapon on the offensive end. While Boston's got some depth at both guard spots, you can see a scenario where Rozier will get playing time, particularly if injuries open doors. Depth will work against Hunter and Mickey, but both have key skills that Boston needed last season.




Who's odd man out for Celtics?
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Perry Jones joins a crowded Celtics frontcourt. Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE/Getty Images
Chris Forsberg, ESPN Staff Writer





Emptying out the suitcase from summer league and unpacking some leftover thoughts on the Boston Celtics:


No vacancy

There's still plenty of time before training camp convenes in late September and the Celtics are certainly still looking for ways to improve both the overall talent level of their roster and the positional balance. At the moment, however, Boston projects to have 16 guaranteed contracts and it raises the question: Who's the odd man out?

Let's start with a look at Boston's current depth chart (utilizing Brad Stevens' preferred four-position system) while accounting for the eventual re-signing of Jae Crowder and a swap that will deliver David Lee from the Golden State Warriors.

• Ball handlers: Marcus Smart, Isaiah Thomas, Terry Rozier, Evan Turner

• Wings: Avery Bradley, James Young, R.J. Hunter

• Swings: Jae Crowder, Jonas Jerebko, Perry Jones

• Bigs: David Lee, Amir Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, Jared Sullinger, Tyler Zeller, Jordan Mickey

Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge laughed during the summer league when asked about the logjam in the frontcourt -- if only because he'd been peppered with questions about how the team appeared to have too many guards in the immediate aftermath of the NBA draft. But there's clearly not enough minutes to go around up front. You can make a case that eight players -- exactly half the roster at this moment -- are vying for minutes at the power forward position.

Let's say the Celtics cannot find another move before the start of the season, at least without taking 50 cents on the dollar for one of their bigs. Typically you'd be looking at the player with the lowest salary to eat, but that might not ultimately be a major issue for a team that projects to be well under the tax line.

Initially, it's likely Perry who will face the longest odds. In sending cash considerations as part of last week's trade, the Oklahoma City Thunder are essentially paying his salary regardless of whether he's on Boston's roster (and Boston got Detroit's second-round pick in 2019 for its troubles).

That said, if Perry shows some potential, Boston won't hesitate to examine other potential trimdown options. Heck, 10 of the 16 players on the team's roster will earn $3.4 million or less next season and, again, with no tax concerns, eating some salary isn't as much of an issue as it might have been in past seasons. Making another move or finding a team that will give up a pick is far more preferable, but Boston can simply cut bait without too much regret.

If Perry shows he deserves to stick on the roster, things get a bit trickier for Boston. Evan Turner's role is murkier this season, though Marcus Smart's hand injury could force Boston to consider extra ball-handling depth. It would seem unlikely that the Celtics would give up on any of their recent draft picks. Ultimately, it might come down to how long Boston is willing to hold out before trimming down and maybe a team develops a need that the Celtics can help fill.


Hey Mickey!

Both team and player have to be happy with the four-year, $5 million deal inked by second-round pick Jordan Mickey.

Mickey will earn nearly twice as much this season as a rookie second-rounder that signs a typical minimum-salary deal. And he gets some security with the first two years of his contract guaranteed. Mickey is essentially being paid like the No. 26 pick at 100 percent of the rookie scale (or a fictional 33rd first-round pick at 120 percent, like most rookies sign for).

Meanwhile, the Celtics walk away with the four-year deal that protects their investment. If Mickey emerges as a rotation player, they've got him for four years at a bargain rate and the ability to keep him here into the future. If he never quite blossoms, those nonguaranteed seasons make him a tradable asset down the road.

As former Nets assistant general manager Bobby Marks noted on Twitter, six of the first seven second-round picks to sign this summer were inked for three years or more. Teams are hip now to maximizing those picks by using cap space or a small bit of the midlevel exception to generate longer-term deals.


Win sharing is caring

A Sports Illustrated article projected the 2015-16 standings based on win shares lost/generated during the offseason and has Boston at 47.4 wins and the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference.  http://www.si.com/nba/2015/07/16/nba-standings-predictions-hornets-thunder-celtics-blazers-mavericks

At 47 wins, that's a seven-win improvement from last season and a three-spot jump in the playoff seedings. The Celtics are spotlighted for that potential leap with a note, "The rebuilding job at the Garden continues to zoom along without a hitch. The Celtics will be a ton of fun to watch in 2015-16, and should expect to improve on their playoff seeding from last season."

While some Boston fans continue to lament the lack of a big-splash addition, this is one of the more encouraging outlooks following Boston's offseason tinkering.


Summer school

Boston's four rookies did well for themselves at summer league. The question that remains to be answered is whether any of the first-year players will have an impact on next year's squad.

Marcus Thornton, the team's final pick at No. 45, is headed overseas to start his pro career (as expected when Boston drafted him). But will Terry Rozier (16th overall), R.J. Hunter (28), or Mickey (33) muscle their way into the rotation?

Rozier's defense probably gives him the best chance of getting on the floor, and his speed is tantalizing. The Celtics need to help him harness that speed and turn it into a consistent weapon on the offensive end. While Boston's got some depth at both guard spots, you can see a scenario where Rozier will get playing time, particularly if injuries open doors. Depth will work against Hunter and Mickey, but both have key skills that Boston needed last season.



bob
MY NOTE:  Good point that has been largely passed by, if PJ3 looks good they could use the money to buy out James Young instead.  Young is also in his last guaranteed contract year, next two years are "team option".  That makes him an expiring contract.  Danny could do unto someone else what OKC did unto him and that is trade James Young, plus the money to pay him out if he doesn't make their team, like what happened with PJ3.  Knowing Danny, though, I don't think he'd give a 2nd rounder to make him go away, I think he'd ask for one.  Even if he gives up the 2nd rounder OKC gave him plus the cash, if PJ3 is an upgrade over Young, that's still a good deal for us.

So, Steve's old employer projects us to a 47 win season (47.4, to be precise!) and a 5th seed.  Didn't I say somewhere, not too long ago, that we could win 48 and, with a little help from Washington (who drops to 6th behind us), be the 5th seed this year?

And Danny's not done.  Count on it.  I don't see us catching Atlanta but stranger things have happened.  For example, when was the last time you've heard of a player having season-ending pectoral muscle tears?  That happened to Horford.  Korver is 34.  Think what happens to them if Korver goes down for a while, in their offense.  They got stronger with the addition of Splitter but who is Millsap's back up?  Sure, they have Horford, Splitter and 7'3" Tavares at center, but who is their back up PF?

And there's your 4th category, Sam, "Swings".  Brad looks at players as ballhandlers, wings, swings and bigs.  And that's why "Center" is no longer an option on the All-Star ballot.  The new, younger coaches don't think like that anymore.  Neither do a few oldsters, like Pop.


.

My guess would be that the only thing saving Young from being the odd man out is that the "wings" category is the least populated of the four. In a sense, it could be a case of Young vs. Rozier for odd man out because, if Rozier can cut it, then Turner can move to the "wing" category and Young could be gone (one way or another). And can''t Jones play some "3"?

But this entire topic is likely an exercise in futility because it's so probable that the roster will be changed—maybe substantially—before the season starts.

Sam

The biggest problem is that Danniy likes Young and hates to give up on him. He is so young. As I Said before, this is the Gerald Green of 2015. No one is going to see the move that will happen, i

Rosalie

This may still be a question until the day before the season actually begins, but it is not a problem.

Ainge still has over three months to make more trades, and I am sure that he will. He still needs a true center to go along with Zeller, in my opinion, and I can't believe that both he and Stevens do not see this as a team weakness.
The vast number of power forwards currently on the roster really do not supply quality center minutes as far as rebounding and interior defense.

Clyde,

I understand Brad's policy of grouping centers and power forwards into a "big" category. But that doesn't change the fact that some opponents have what might be called "big bigs" who require a "big big" to defend them. Even with Lee coming on board, the Celtics simply don't have what I think would qualify as a "big big." They need one. But the problem is that they can't be satisfied with getting someone who qualifies mainly by size—a semi-goon whom the crowd can laugh at semi-derisively during garbage time.

Sam

Hey Rosalie, does your recent posting mean you're back home. I surely hope so. How are you feeling?

Sam

Rosalie, if you have departed Boston's medical scene, it's just in time for me to take your place. I'll be getting an aortic valve replacement on August 4. Thankfully, I've been approved for a minimally invasive procedure, so I should walk out of the hospital two or three days later and be at full strength (whatever that is) within a week.

Best to you and Bill.

Side note to NYCelt: Yup, it pays to persevere.

Sam

Best to you Sam. I hope you have a laptop or smartphone to keep you occupied for a couple days.

Thanks Rambone. The laptop's no problem, and I have a Droid, but they altered it to make it a dumbphone to fit my technical skills.

Sam

Sam,

Break a leg!

gyso

Sam

In our prayers..

I would hate to see them give up on Young but since we really have not seen how Perry fits into the mix there is no way to determine who should go.

As wide clyde stated there are 3 months to go before a decision has to be made and as you Sam noted we need a big big.

Also I could see Boston winning 54.5 games next year if they do get that elusive big big

dboss

Thanks for the good wishes everyone. It should be nothing more than a blip on the widescreen of life.

Sam

All the best Sam,

Maybe someday we'll be able to hook up in Europe where we can compare medical procedures. (Only joking, there's nothing more boring than talking about health matters. Unfortunately when one gets to be our age health matters tend to take up quite a bit of time).

P.S. to Rosalie, I hope you're home and doing well.

No Sam, still at Spaulding. Had an allergic reaction to penecillen and set me back. I kept telling the doctor from the CDC that I was allergic, she convinced my family that it was a long time ago and I would be okay. NEVER AGAIN will I let someone not listen to me, that plus the other antibiotic they have me on are taking their sweet time killing the infection. The only good thing is the PT/OT are getting me stronger daily.

I still check the forum daily, thank God I have my iPad with me, and Bill and my son, he is such a big help. I try nit to have Bill in here too long, he needs to take care of himself. Diabetes is taxing.

Thanks for checking on me, I will try to keep you I informed. Thanks for being so kind.

Rosalie

Mass general Sam? They were so good to me. I wish you all the best. You will do fine. Hey,I had the aoetic valve replaced, mitral valve repaired and a quadruple bypass. If I can do it YOU surely can.

My best wishes to. You are now on my prayer list daily.

Love

sam wrote:Rosalie, if you have departed Boston's medical scene, it's just in time for me to take your place.  I'll be getting an aortic valve replacement on August 4.  Thankfully, I've been approved for a minimally invasive procedure, so I should walk out of the hospital two or three days later and be at full strength (whatever that is) within a week.

Best to you and Bill.

Side note to NYCelt: Yup, it pays to persevere.

Sam

Sam,

I had no doubt you would get it done your way!

Walking out afterwards seems, somehow, too pedestrian for you on this one. I say throw in a little dance step.

Regards

Rosalie,

Sorry about the little setback. Wow, you've definitely had FAR more share of medical challenges. Is it true that the New England Journal of Medicine is planning to produce a documentary on your life? Here's hoping you're out of Spaulding in a hurry. Thank goodness for family who keep one's mind on an even keel and for the miracles of communication that give one something to do rather than watch tv and count the cracks in the ceiling. The number of victories you have to your credit would be a great goal for the Celtics next season. Right back at you as far as the prayer list is combined.

All the best,

Sam

NYCelt,

I had been planning to get made up as Frank Sinatra and walk out singing "My Way," but maybe a Gene Kelly imitation would be a better idea. Please keep me informed on how you're doing, and all the best to you and the family. We truly enjoyed getting together the other night, and it has been particularly rewarding to watch Michael become "Mr. Assertive"—a seminal time in any young person's life.

Sam

Best to you Sam.

God Bless! Love Karen & 112288

Thanks, 112288. And please give Karen a hug for me.

Sam

Gene Kelly would be fitting, as he filmed the classic Singing In The Rain scene with a bad flu.

Rambone,

I'm not much of a dancer, but I could probably come up with a good case of the flu.

Sam

sam wrote:NYCelt,

I had been planning to get made up as Frank Sinatra and walk out singing "My Way," but maybe a Gene Kelly imitation would be a better idea.  Please keep me informed on how you're doing, and all the best to you and the family.  We truly enjoyed getting together the other night, and it has been particularly rewarding to watch Michael become "Mr. Assertive"—a seminal time in any young person's life.

Sam

Sam,

You know the drill; I'll keep you posted if you do the same. You're up first. I bat second on August 17.

We had fun at Joe's as well; always the highlight of our Cape Time when we get to see the two of you (need to get 11/22/88 to synch calendars again too).

"Mr. Assertive" had an interesting return to the diamond when we got back. He discovered getting the start when you're rusty can lead to some long hits off you!

Regards

Sam and rosalie...

Here's hoping both of ya are out soon...

Matty wrote: "Sam and Rosalie...

Here's hoping both of ya are out soon... " Ditto here! Hawk