#NBAFrontOffice: How do the Celtics go from good to great?

#NBAFrontOffice: How do the Celtics go from good to great?


1h - NBA BOSTON CELTICS








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In the latest installment of the #NBAFrontOffice series, Tom Penn (playing the role of general manager), P.J. Carlesimo (head coach), Amin Elhassan (scouting director) and Kevin Pelton (analytics director) discuss the Boston Celtics and whether a trade or free agency is their best chance at adding a superstar.

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Tom Penn: I think you always start with, "Do we have greatness, and if we don't have it, how are we going to get it?" So the first fundamental question is: Do we think that any players on the Celtics' roster qualify as pure, NBA-level greatness?

Amin Elhassan: Nah.

Penn: We all agree that the answer is no, right?

Kevin Pelton: Marcus Smart is the one guy on the roster with a chance to potentially be that, but he's got to improve dramatically offensively to get there.

Penn: Right, because the exciting thing for them is that they've got all kinds of assets, flexibility and tools that they can trade and use and maneuver around, but I would agree that Smart is the one young player they have who could, theoretically, if everything goes perfectly, develop into an All-Star-level player.

P.J. Carlesimo: I really like Smart. He was one of the maybe three dominant rookies in the league last year. He was a guy who played significant minutes and really contributed to the team.

Penn: But if that's all they have, then they need to stay realistic in terms of knowing how far they still have to go. So, let's recap all of the assets they have to get to that greatness.

Elhassan: I guess the most relevant pieces would be the first-round picks they have coming via the Brooklyn Nets -- a 2016 unprotected first rounder, a 2017 pick swap and a 2018 unprotected first-rounder. Beyond that, they've got a lot of other picks, but with various levels of protection. There's a 2016 first-rounder from Dallas that's top-seven protected for the next five years, a 2016 first-rounder from Minnesota that's top-12 protected, and if that doesn't get conveyed, it just turns into second-round picks, and a 2018 first-round pick from Memphis that is top-12 protected in 2018, top-eight in 2019, top-six in 2020 and unprotected in 2021.

Pelton: I think the best thing that happened to them this offseason was the Deron Williams buyout and then him going to Dallas, because that potentially helps both of those picks. First off, you've got a Brooklyn team that has the league's worst point guard rotation at this point with Jarrett Jack as the starter, Shane Larkin as the backup and Ryan Boatright is probably going to make the roster as the third point guard. So if something goes wrong with the Nets in the frontcourt, this season could get away from them pretty quickly and that could be a pick that enters into the lottery and finishes in the top five or so.

At the same time, Dallas, instead of sitting this season out and trying to get good again next year via free agency, it looks as if the Mavericks are going to be competitive in the Western Conference but probably not a playoff team, so it looks as if you will get that pick somewhere in the 10-14 range.


The Celtics have structured their payroll to ensure that they can compete while waiting to grab a star through free agency or a blockbuster trade. AP Photo/Steven Senne


Trade or free agency?

Penn: OK, great, we're all talking about draft picks, but that's just uncertain hope for the future. I think what's interesting for them is that they have so many picks they could package them together for a big, bold move in combination with their cap room. So let's go over the cap situation.

Elhassan: With the cap expected to be somewhere around $90 million for the 2016-17 season, they have $22.5 million in guaranteed money available next summer. Now, it goes way above that if you consider Amir Johnson's $12 million salary that is completely non-guaranteed up until July 3 next summer, and the same goes for Jonas Jerebko's $5 million salary. And then you've got team options we expect to be picked up for their guys on rookie contracts, such as Smart, James Young and Kelly Olynyk. I think that's the crux of their cap flexibility.

Pelton: And that's why those contracts are structured the way they are. I think the Johnson and Jerebko contracts are really trade chips in the 2016 draft window. If you come in with possibly three first-round picks plus those non-guaranteed contracts, you can easily build up enough salary to get a DeMarcus Cousins if he becomes available -- or that kind of player. That's clearly what they're thinking with those guys. And if you don't find anything, then you do have the option of just waiting to maximize cap space, although Johnson at $12 million is probably not a terrible number for them.

Penn: Lee is an interesting trade chip in combination with the draft picks, as well. You'd be trading a guy on an expiring contract who is a good guy and will come and play his tail off wherever he goes because he's in part playing for his next contract. I think they can grow organically with what they have and wait until next summer, or they can use Lee as a principal trade chip with the draft picks to do an opportunistic deal to get the guy they want.

Elhassan: Sometimes people look at cap space and say, "Well who can they go out and sign?" I look at it as who can they go out and trade for. Let's say Kevin Love is having another lackluster season with the Cavaliers -- it's not what they envisioned out of him as far as the star talent he has. That's a team that, if I'm the Celtics, I'm calling up every week if things aren't going as smoothly as anticipated. The Celtics can offer a number of pieces that can probably approximate what Love is giving Cleveland if he's underperforming, and at the same time Boston can get a player who can be a star and a focal point.

Pelton: To me, the big thing with the Celtics is that they're obviously in this state of limbo, waiting for a trade to acquire a star player, but the upside is that they're not in a position where they aren't competitive while they're waiting for that to happen. This was one of the top five or six teams in the Eastern Conference after it added Isaiah Thomas at the trade deadline last season, and I think it has the potential to be in a similar spot this season in the East with Johnson filling one of the biggest needs with his rim protection.

Carlesimo: They're headed in the right direction. They have very good young talent and I like what they've done recently by adding some veterans. They were playing so many young guys. A guy like Lee is a big commodity in the league, I'm a big fan of Johnson, picking up Jerebko was a good move and Jae Crowder's an excellent defender. Now it's not just these younger guys. They put some veterans with those guys now.

Penn: That's a great point, because we always talk about making changes, but what they've done is assembled a very competitive and attractive team -- assuming they win. You've got to remember that next summer's free-agent competition is going to be off the hook because everybody's going to have room, so free agents are going to very much value the quality of the team. So the Celtics might get their greatness with the right free agent who wants to join the competent and competitive core that's going to be there.

Carlesimo: As good as Danny Ainge is, this isn't on him as much. It's about showing they can win so that they can convince free agents next summer that they can go to Boston and win with guys like Johnson, Smart, and Thomas. Someone's got to look at the situation and see that they've got a good coach, young talent, veteran talent and that they're getting close, they just need somebody to be that missing piece. Not to diminish Ainge's role in that at all, but I think the product has got to draw somebody there.

Pelton: This came up last week on the Lowe Post Podcast when Zach Lowe was talking to Jared Dudley and he said guys around the league are buzzing about Stevens. Dudley went out of his way to say how good he is and that, if the money were similar, guys might want to play in Boston instead of somewhere else.

Elhassan: OK, free agency is a nice plan, but absent of, like, an agent telling me he's bringing a star here next summer, I'm keeping my pulse on every single flash point around the league, whether it's Love in Cleveland, Cousins in Sacramento or Eric Bledsoe in Phoenix. It happens. It's cyclical in this league. Someone is not happy with where they are, or the team is not happy. One man's junk is another man's treasure. You've got to identify those situations, keep a pulse and keep a running dialogue with those organizations to package those assets that we talked about earlier.

Pelton: I guess Denver with Danilo Gallinari is one situation that they'll be sure to monitor, although he's still kind of a B-level player like they already have.

The guy I bet they're targeting in free agency is Al Horford. He fills their need for a rim protector and can play with almost any of their big men because of his versatility. Johnson does some similar things; he's just not nearly as talented. Horford is kind of a rich-man's version of Johnson. He'd be by far their best big man.

Elhassan: Absolutely. He's a culture builder, and that hasn't been as much of a need over there -- they have a good core as far as character guys and good locker room guys -- but someone like Horford brings a certain credibility to the table, not only from a talent standpoint but also the leadership aspect in the locker room. And, as Kevin said, his versatility as a player comes in handy. He can play the 5; he can play the 4; he's a very good midrange shooter; he's OK out to the 3-point corners; he rebounds; and he defends multiple positions. He'd definitely move the culture forward, but I think you're still left wanting something else to go along with him. He's not that guy who can just come in and you'll say, "All right, we've got him, now let's go win our championship."

Pelton: I think one thing maybe you're hoping for -- since you're still going to have so much cap space with all of those rookie contracts and flexibility -- is that, if you get one of those guys, it makes it easier to go out the next summer and get the next guy.

Elhassan: The question is if Horford would be willing to go there and leave the Hawks, the only team he's known. They've had a considerable amount of success in the last couple of seasons. They're expected to be at least one of the top four teams in the East this season. Would Horford want to move on?

Pelton: And that's where I think -- hot take alert -- the Celtics might be better than the Hawks this year.

Elhassan: Oh! Sound the alarm!

Carlesimo: It's reasonable to say that they'll be a winning team this year and a playoff team again, but they've got to crack that next level. Even Toronto and Washington haven't cracked that level yet. Boston wants to get to that Toronto and Washington level. Those are teams that have good, young players and some veteran talent but they haven't shown that they can get as far as the conference finals.



Al Horford, a free agent in 2016, should be one of Boston's top targets. Brett Davis/USA TODAY Sports


Finding a star in 2016

Penn: This is still all just so speculative. It's sort of silly to think about a free agent that far out and how he fits and whether you can build around him. In free agency, you're going to be competing against everyone the next two seasons because virtually everyone will have cap room.

Elhassan: Right. Here's what's going on. No fewer than 15 teams are going to have $20 million or more in cap space next summer. That's the projection. You've got a salary cap going up to around $89 million. Every team needs to spend at least 90 percent of that to get to the floor. So 90 percent of $89 million is $80 million. And as I said, you've got several teams that are going to be far, far below that, so a lot of guys are going to get paid by default. Why haggle and mess around when you have to reach this $80 million number anyway?

The problem is that, for a team like the Celtics, if we're talking about the blue-chip talent, their money is their money. So it's not as if you can overpay a max guy; he's getting the max. We can argue whether Horford is a max guy. We can argue whether Mike Conley is a max guy, but there's a level at which, if you're that good, if you're that much of a game-changer, the opportunity to overpay for your services isn't really going to be available to many of these teams.

Pelton: Right, if you can't compete on price, you're going to have to compete on other factors like the ability to win, the coach or the environment, things like that. So, the better the Celtics do this season, the better their chances are in free agency.

Elhassan: I think the trick is you do one of two things. One option is finding a free agent who really isn't highly valued. You've got to do what Orlando did in 2000 and say, "Well, even though everybody thinks Tracy McGrady is a sidekick, we think he's a star and we're going to give him the max." You've got to make that kind of plunge.

Or, you eliminate the guesswork and you go out and trade for someone who's already under contract. You know he's good. You don't have to negotiate against 14 other suitors. You just basically have to put together a nice enough package, and, if you're the Celtics, you do have enough pieces to make a competitive play for one of these guys such as Cousins or Love, compared with the other teams that are doing the same kind of strategy.

Carlesimo: Also, don't forget that they want to get beyond just the next level. Everybody pays that lip-service, but Boston is one of those franchises that measures everything by championships. This isn't a team that's looking to get better and sell more tickets and make it into the playoffs. That's not what Boston's about. Boston's like the Lakers and the Spurs where if it's not a championship then it's not what they want. The expectations in Boston are a lot higher than they are in a lot other places in the league.



bob
MY NOTE:  In a slightly tangential point, the deadline for deciding on whether to guarantee Jerebko and Johnson's contracts next year is July 3rd  The free agency frenzy begins July 1st, so Danny only has 3 days to make deals (which might involve those players) or not before he has to decide.


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It always was, now is, and will be mostly about the team.  To conjecture about the potential value of an individual player to the Celtics, it's necessary to determine how he will fit in with, and hopeful, upgrade the performance of, the team that will be in place after getting him and the system that will be in place.

Just looking at a hypothetical parade of individuals like a fashion show runway is an exercise in futility.

Sam