Is Zeller next in line for contract extension from Celtics?

http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics/is-tyler-zeller-next-in-line-for-contract-extension-from-boston-celtics



Is Zeller next in line for contract extension from Celtics?
August 17, 2015, 11:45 am











BOSTON -- Last month we saw how the Boston Celtics rewarded Jae Crowder for making the most of his opportunity to play significant minutes after being acquired from Dallas in December. They signed the 6-foot-6 Crowder to a five-year, $35 million deal.

Will Tyler Zeller be next?

The 7-foot center is among three Celtics (Jared Sullinger and Perry Jones III) from the 2012 draft class who are in line for a potential extension this fall. But of the trio, Zeller is the most likely to get a deal done prior to the October 31 deadline.

Sullinger has had weight and conditioning issues throughout his NBA career and is looking for a strong season to increase his value. Jones is looking to spike his value as well, after having spent his first three NBA seasons in the enormous shadow of Oklahoma City star and former league MVP Kevin Durant.

Zeller, however, performed at a level last season that few saw coming.

He was one of the more noticeable overachievers on a Celtics team that, in so many ways, exceeded the expectations many had for them. Boston wound up with the seventh-best record in the Eastern Conference before being swept out of the playoffs in the first round by Cleveland.

Zeller averaged 10.2 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. And when he did play, he was effective: He had which a 19.01 player efficiency rating, which is about four points higher than the average NBA player.

Even though Zeller is coming off his most productive season, building off that success won’t be easy. He came to Boston last year at a time when opportunity was abundant for anyone who could essentially run up the floor and breathe at the same time. And, to Zeller’s credit, he made the most of his chances to play even if his minutes fluctuated.

Now, however, Boston's frontcourt has more proven depth than a year ago. The returning cast of Zeller, Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk and Jonas Jerebko has been joined by veterans Amir Johnson and David Lee, a two-time All-Star. It’s unlikely Zeller will get the kind of playing time that will translates into major minutes this season, which will certainly impact his next contract.

Zeller runs the floor extremely well for a 7-footer and was arguably Boston’s best big man at finishing around the rim. However, he is not a rim-protecting big man (although he does a decent job of positioning himself to contest shots) and his rebounding isn’t what you would want from a 7-footer.

Still, Zeller proved to be an ideal fit in coach Brad Stevens’ system a year ago. And when you look at Zeller’s overall game, there are few teams where he'd be a better fit than with the Celtics.

And on more than one occasion this past season, Zeller made it clear he enjoys Boston and is very open to the idea of being here long-term.

“But that’s something I can’t control,” he told CSNNE.com earlier. “All I can control is my play and just that speak for itself.”



bob
MY NOTE:  Not a rim protector, but a good position defender whose offense is better than he is given credit for.  He doesn't demand the ball, but is a legit threat near the rim.  

According to 82games.com:
65% of his shots were from "in close".  You want more inside game from the Celtics?  How's this?
40% of his shots were with less than 10 seconds gone on the shot clock.  That's running.
31% were in "crunch" shot clock (i.e. 8 seconds or less left on the clock)

Here are some centers who behind Zeller in clutch stats:
Greg Monroe (20.8 points vs 21.2 for Zeller, 48.6% fg% vs 69% for Zeller, 42% ft% vs 89% for Zeller, 3.6TOs vs .8 for Zeller);
Andre Drummond (20.1 ppg vs 21.2 for Zeller, 30% ft% vs 89%, 50% fg% vs 69%, 30% ft% vs 89%, 1.7TOs vs .8 for Zeller);
Marcin Gortat (15.6ppg vs 21.2, 52.6% fg% vs 69%, 93% ft% vs 89%);
Gorgui Dieng (13.5ppg vs 21.2, 60% fg% vs 69%, 66% ft% vs 89%, 2.7TOs vs .8 for Zeller)
Roy Hibbert (12.8ppg vs 21.21, 36% fg% vs 69%, 90% ft% vs 89%)
Rudy Gobert (11.4ppg vs 21.2, 41.7% fg% vs 69%, 50% ft% vs 89%, 1.8TOs vs .8 for Zeller)
Valanciunas (10.6ppg vs 21.2, 18.8% vs 69%, 72% ft% vs 89%, 2.3TOs vs .8 for Zeller)
Joachim Noah (10.4ppg vs 21.2, 42.9% vs 69%, 62% ft% vs 89%, 2.7TOs vs .8 for Zeller)
Robin Lopez (10.0ppg vs 21.2, 40% fg% vs 69%, 80% vs 89%)

These are all legit NBA starting centers (ok, Monroe might be better at PF, but he has center size and has played the position).  Are those centers better shot blockers and rebounders than Zeller?  Absolutely they are but what this shows is, if you're in clutch time and you need points, either from the field or from the line, it's better if the ball is in Zeller's hands than in any of theirs.  Empty possessions are VERY costly in clutch time, where you don't have tons of possessions to make up for empty ones caused by TOs and/or missed fgas and/or missed ftas.

During the first 43 minutes, where you have 75 or so fgas, it's not that big a deal but when you only have maybe 10 fgas (maybe!) then each one is precious.  Add to that the use of Hack-a-player defenses, having 5 players on the floor who DO hit their clutch ftas, not just 4, is a big bonus.  Zeller has defensive deficiencies, no doubt, but he has an NBA center's body, he does have some skills and he will kill most NBA centers when he is running full court.  A dunk powered in by a behemoth counts on the scoreboard no more than a dunk on a fast break.  A blocked shot by a center in clutch, that is blocked out of bounds and gives the ball back to the other team, is not enough to offset a turnover in clutch by that center.  With the block, the other team gets another chance, another possession in a timeframe where possessions are few and valuable, which might produce points.  With a turnover, the other team gets the ball.  Period.

Monroe just got a fat contract for over $16M/year and he's no better than Zeller on rim protection and, if you look at points/36mpg, Zeller is right on Monroe's tail and Monroe's claim to fame is his offense.  Zeller also averages 1.1 blocks/36 while Monroe averaged only .6/36.

My point is that for all his defensive weaknesses that we harp on he isn't an empty uniform.  He's not Chuck Nevitt.  He needs to improve his rebounding (or box out his man so Sully or Johnson or whomever can get the board; that's just as good) and he needs to hold his ground and force his man to take a shot a foot or two further away from his sweet spot (Cowens used to do that with Jabbar.  You could not stop the skyhook, you could just force Kareem to take it a foot or two further away).  Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan from even 2' further away become A LOT less effective.  Add to this that legit 7'ers with NBA level skills don't grow on trees, as Danny can attest, and giving Zeller an extension is a no-brainer.



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In answer to the question: I hope so. Zeller is a bargain with upside and I think he'll have a good sophomore season in green. Hawk

I like Zeller, too and as Bob says "he is certainly not just an empty uniform", but just as with Jones and Sullinger there is no need to hurry up and give him more money yet.

Ainge can wait until at least the beginning of this season to sign him for a couple of more years.  It is not like any of these three guys will play with any less vigor this season if they are not signed before even the end of the season because they are professionals who are already under contract and also because they are smart enough to know that this season's successes will lead to additional money in the contract they sign for next season.  No other team can swoop in and take them away until at least next July.

extend him now..sure, but not at the price this article is quoting!!


http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/08/18/report-celtics-likely-to-give-tyler-zeller-a-contract-extension-before-october-31-deadline/



key part:

With the salary cap going up next summer, teams will be motivated to lock in young players to long-term deals now at what will be below market value once the jump takes place. Don’t be surprised if Zeller gets eight figures annually in a new deal. The idea of a four-year, $40 million extension for him seems crazy now, but if he proves to be a long-term starting-caliber center, that looks a lot more reasonable under a cap that’s expected to be closer to $89 million in 2016, when the extension would kick in.


4yr/$40MILLION!!!!!!!!!

not sure I could go for that myself.

10 million per year is going to be dirt cheap for a good back up center. It's already pretty much fair.

Perk started earning like 10 mil per year like 4 years ago.

And of course, Zeller could end up as our role playing starting center of the future, in which case 10 million per year is even more of a steal.

Zeller extended his jump shot range deeper and deeper late last season. And he got more and more confident with it. It wouldn't shock me if he showed up in October with a corner 3 point shot, in which case KO is going to have an even bigger struggle for the starting job and minutes in general.

I think both are going to just keep charging forward improvement-wise.

All things considered, Tyler has enough potential to warrant sewing him up. He's had enough consistent offensive impact to rank #1 at the center position on the team until someone better comes along. And if/when that happens, he's consistent enough to rank #2 and also to be a nice trading chip. He is ideally suited to a running team, which is what I'm hoping the Celtics will become. And I'm hoping that perhaps competition from David Lee on the practice floor will spur Tyler on to improving on defense as he did on offense last season.

As for money, I'll leave it that to Danny.

Sam

Yes, but at what price. He's not $10million for sure but $7million is a good number.

112288

112288 wrote:Yes, but at what price.  He's not $10million for sure but $7million is a good number.

112288

I agree $7-8M per year might make sense, but $10M is too much unless Ainge sees Zeller as a regular starter.

$89M is a lot of money for sure, but when you consider what a max contract will be ($23-25m) and then what near max players will want ($14-18M) , that $89M in salary will be eaten up quickly.

for instance , a fictitious championship caliber team:

Player 1- $23M
player 2- $16M
player 3- $14M
player 4- $10M
player 5- $3M ( on rookie deal)

starters take up $66M in salary's alone , leaving $23M for the other 8-10 players under contract ( or $2-3M per player on average).

6th man- $8M
7th man- $2M (on rookie deal)
8th man- $6M
9th man- $4M
10-13 spots- vet or rookie minimum deals

so paying anyone $10M is paying them as a regular starter.


I think most Celtic fans like Zeller, but I'm not sure how many see him as our long term starting center.

3 - 4 years at $7 - 7.5 makes sense. He showed progress, but 1 year does not make a 4 year deal at high numbers. He is not a rim protector nor a starter but a serviceable big who can run the floor and play 20 - 25 min. per.

If Zeller is to become better he has to strengthen his body 'cause he does take a beating when around more physical forwards.

112288

Hi,
Paraphrasing Mr. Henry - give us Zeller and give us banner.
Well, he's not exactly a super star but he plays hard and brings a lot to the table. Also, if you compare his play in Cleveland with Boston - huge progress.
I say get him.

AK

Back up Center $ (pre-salary cap explosion):

Greg Monroe - $16.4M
Kostos Koufos - $7.7M
Tiago Splitter - $8.5M
Channing Frye - $8.2M

A lot of teams have back up centers that are on their rookie contract like Minny (Dieng), Indy (Miles Turner), GSW (Ezeli), Milwaukee (Miles Plumlee), Portland (Mason Plumlee), Philadelphia (everybody).  That's what we have with Zeller now, but all good things come to an end.  The first set of numbers show what back up centers are making in the NBA BEFORE the salary cap explodes.

There's also the issue of serviceable bigs being rarer than serviceable wings.  After all the screaming about how "We need a center!  We need a center!" it strikes me as penny-wise and pound-foolish to let one go because you don't think you can get a wing for a discount to take his spot on the roster salary scale.  How many players, proven NBA players, are going to play in China this year that we could sign for a song so we can lock in a legit 7' NBA center?  Next year, there will be more of them to choose from, don't worry.  As the world shrinks the number of available quality ballers will exceed the number of job openings in the NBA.  Find me a better replacement for the price you want and I'm open to suggestion.  If you can't, then I say let's stick with the known quantity, that fits in Brad's system, is positive in the locker room no matter what his minutes are, and that Brad likes.  Money and salary cap stuff is Danny and Wyc's problem.  If Wyc is willing to pay the luxury tax to get who we want/need who am I to disagree?  Everybody spazzed out when Danny signed Avery Bradley to his contract and that turned out fine.  I think we just have to accept the fact that Danny knows shit we don't.

I also agree with Sinus about the improvement in his play.  Brad is making him look good, and he knows it.  My prediction is that we'll see more improvement this year with a year under Brad under his belt and a full summer to work on the next level of his game.  I have to say, flat-out, I've gone from a cautious, "hoping for the best but preparing for the worst" supporter of Brad when he first came on board as an NBA rookie (he's the Celtics' coach, OF COURSE I supported him right out of the gate!) to being 110% confident in his ability to turn any old kind of grist put into his mill into quality rye.

The big knocks on Zeller is that he is not a rim protector, nor is he a great rebounder for his position.  I posted somewhere about how the 2008 championship team wasn't a great shot blocking team either.  I'm trying not to get carried away here, but I'm expecting Mickey to have a big impact on the team.  He could become the baseline defender in our defense, the rover who penetrators look for when they get into the paint.  He might not block the shot, but he'll make them shoot it off-balance trying to get away from him.  If I'm right, then Zeller's lack of rim protection isn't as important since he'll be Perk to Mickey's KG.  As far as rebounding goes, I don't worry about that much.  If Zeller and Olynyk put their bodies on their men, we have several other players who have the lively bodies to go get the ball (e.g. Lee, Amir, Turner).  We saw that a lot last year.  Evan Turner's /minute rebound rate was the 2nd highest of his career (his sophomore year was better) because we were working to keep them off the boards, while he went for the ball.  I am more concerned when we give up a big number of possessions or they shoot at a high fg% and get low total rebounds than any one player's total.  Team rebounding is just as good a concept as team offense and team defense.  That's one of the things I love about offensive rebounding stats.  A player might have a good defensive rebounding night, or even season, because the rest of the team is boxing their men out and freeing him up for the ball, or because teams fall back on defense after the shot like Doc's Celtic teams did, but offensive rebounding is pure ganas.  You want it?  Great.  Go get it, it's all about you outworking them.  I didn't ooh and ahh quite so much when Sully had 12 rebounds as when 5 of them were offensive.  That's when you knew he wasn't getting a gimme off a missed free throw or by just putting his fat ass into his man's stomach.  30.9% of Zeller's total rebounds/minute are offensive, 33.6% of Sully's are.  Not too bad considering what a beast Sully is on the boards.  Sully just eats up more defensive rebounds than Zeller.  Maybe that's because Zeller is running up court and Sully doesn't (hopefully we'll be able to start using the past tense on this) run, so he goes for the ball instead, which pumps up his rebound numbers?  Everybody has their job and maybe Zeller's is to run his opposite's legs off.



bob


.

KDP - Regarding your comment "4yr/$40MILLION!!!!!!!!!

not sure I could go for that myself."

...You have a very high opinion of yourself. I personally could go for 4 yr/$30MILLION!!!!!!! But then, I only have one son left in college so my expenses aren't all that high.

Guy plays what 21 minutes a game? I need to see alot more.

cowens/oldschool wrote:Guy plays what 21 minutes a game? I need to see alot more.

cow,

In the championship year of 2007-2008, Perk played 24.5mpg.  The next year he hit his high water mark of 29.6mpg and then declined to around 25-26mpg in OKC.  His career average is 22.3mpg, which also happens to be his mpg for the 8 seasons he was in Boston (he averaged 1 mpg more in OKC, less the last year or two, so it all washes out).  Perk never played, what is generally considered to be, "starter minutes" at any point in his career.  He's a 22mpg player, which is usually considered to be "rotation player" minutes, yet he started for all of those 8 years in Boston and 5 in OKC.

If Zeller inches up to 24mpg this year, not far from 21mpg, that's spitting distance of what Perk played in his prime, exactly what Perk played when he started for a championship team and more than his career average.  It's not how many minutes you play, it's what you do for the team when you're out there.  /minute production.  

/36mpg

Zeller (Boston only)........Perk (Boston only)
17.3pts--------------------6.4ppg
8.9rpg----------------------6.1rpg
54.9% fg%-----------------56.3% fg%
11.0 fgas--------------------7.4fgas
82.3 ft%--------------------60.3% ft%
3.5 ftas---------------------3.4ftas
2.4 assists------------------1.6 assists
1.6 TOs----------------------2.7 TOs
1.5:1 assists/TO------------.59:1 assists/TO
1.1 blocks-------------------2.3 blocks

The ONLY category where Perk is more than just marginally better than Zeller is blocks.  His ft% cost us points and gave us empty possessions.  His stone hands created more TOs than assists and that's more empty possessions.  His rebounding, something that you don't like about Zeller, is worse /minute than Zeller.  Worse.  His offense, well...

The best thing that ever happened to Perk was the arrival of KG.  Sure, you could say that about EVERYBODY, we won a championship, but the simple truth was that Perk was a marginal player, with great heart and ganas, who couldn't anchor a defense.  He couldn't anchor it when his front court mate was Big Al and he didn't anchor it well in OKC even with Ibaka as a front court mate.  Perk was a good teammate, but he was a player who needed the right players around him to be effective.  Just look at the Celtics' defense, with him anchoring it, before KG showed up.

My point is that maybe Zeller isn't that defensive anchor we are looking for, but neither was Perk, and yet if you put him with the right players it all works out fine.  Mickey could be that guy.  Human Jumping Jack Perry Jones III might be that guy or maybe possibly Amir but just because Zeller isn't doesn't mean we're doomed anymore than we were doomed when we had the same starting center in 2007-2008 that led us to absolutely miserable defensive efforts for the previous 4 years straight.

Lighten up, big guy.


bob


.

Hi,
Another thing that'd take mpg load off or, rather would not necessitate a lot of mpg for Zeller is overall tendency to play small.

AK

worcester wrote:KDP - Regarding your comment "4yr/$40MILLION!!!!!!!!!

not sure I could go for that myself."  

...You have a very high opinion of yourself. I personally could go for 4 yr/$30MILLION!!!!!!!  But then, I only have one son left in college so my expenses aren't all that high.

LOL......I think you know what i meant, dispite my lack of communication skills.

KDP - only joshing wit' ya.... It is amazing how much money these guys make. Whatever Danny pays, he'll keep it as low as possible I'm sure.

My priority at center would be to go all in to land Hassan Whiteside. Zeller would be option # 2 and only on the cheep if its for a multiple year contract. Whiteside has great stats on defense and very impressive shooting percentages out to 16 feet.

swish

I'd be happy with that, but Pat Reilly wouldn't allow it. He's going to resign Whiteside. Unless Danny can somehow persuade Hassan to come over to the Darkside.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-heat/sfl-miami-heat-hassan-whiteside-s072415-story.html

lets see how Whiteside does in a full NBA season, before we want to open up the brinks truck for the guy.

he could have been had by ANY NBA team at the start of last season for the vet MINIMUM.

maybe the light did flip on for him

or maybe he was the last man standing on a non playoff team.

we should all know after this season , one way or the other.

bobheckler wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:Guy plays what 21 minutes a game? I need to see alot more.

cow,

In the championship year of 2007-2008, Perk played 24.5mpg.  The next year he hit his high water mark of 29.6mpg and then declined to around 25-26mpg in OKC.  His career average is 22.3mpg, which also happens to be his mpg for the 8 seasons he was in Boston (he averaged 1 mpg more in OKC, less the last year or two, so it all washes out).  Perk never played, what is generally considered to be, "starter minutes" at any point in his career.  He's a 22mpg player, which is usually considered to be "rotation player" minutes, yet he started for all of those 8 years in Boston and 5 in OKC.

If Zeller inches up to 24mpg this year, not far from 21mpg, that's spitting distance of what Perk played in his prime, exactly what Perk played when he started for a championship team and more than his career average.  It's not how many minutes you play, it's what you do for the team when you're out there.  /minute production.  

/36mpg

Zeller (Boston only)........Perk (Boston only)
17.3pts--------------------6.4ppg
8.9rpg----------------------6.1rpg
54.9% fg%-----------------56.3% fg%
11.0 fgas--------------------7.4fgas
82.3 ft%--------------------60.3% ft%
3.5 ftas---------------------3.4ftas
2.4 assists------------------1.6 assists
1.6 TOs----------------------2.7 TOs
1.5:1 assists/TO------------.59:1 assists/TO
1.1 blocks-------------------2.3 blocks

The ONLY category where Perk is more than just marginally better than Zeller is blocks.  His ft% cost us points and gave us empty possessions.  His stone hands created more TOs than assists and that's more empty possessions.  His rebounding, something that you don't like about Zeller, is worse /minute than Zeller.  Worse.  His offense, well...

The best thing that ever happened to Perk was the arrival of KG.  Sure, you could say that about EVERYBODY, we won a championship, but the simple truth was that Perk was a marginal player, with great heart and ganas, who couldn't anchor a defense.  He couldn't anchor it when his front court mate was Big Al and he didn't anchor it well in OKC even with Ibaka as a front court mate.  Perk was a good teammate, but he was a player who needed the right players around him to be effective.  Just look at the Celtics' defense, with him anchoring it, before KG showed up.

My point is that maybe Zeller isn't that defensive anchor we are looking for, but neither was Perk, and yet if you put him with the right players it all works out fine.  Mickey could be that guy.  Human Jumping Jack Perry Jones III might be that guy or maybe possibly Amir but just because Zeller isn't doesn't mean we're doomed anymore than we were doomed when we had the same starting center in 2007-2008 that led us to absolutely miserable defensive efforts for the previous 4 years straight.

Lighten up, big guy.


bob


.

you are now a delusional pit bull, Perk always went one on one defensively with the biggest opposing frontcourt player, didn't need help and seemed to always do a pretty good job. Thunder couldn't get out of first round with Kristic and Green, got to Finals with Perk doing his role player thing banging anybody and everyone near him in the paint. Even last year in a game he completely shutdown a very good post player in Sully. Sully could post up Zeller easily, he couldn't do that with Perk. I already explained in another thread that the 07 Celtic team had alot of holes and injury woes besides Big Al. Perks impact as a defensive force and role player easily makes more impact than the little offense Z can give a team, if Z was paired with KG or Ibaka I don't see that team getting to Finals because would have big hole in that line up defensively even with KG or Ibaka. Why the fock have you been pining for a big man? cause you know with Zeller were soft.

If Zeller is considered to be a backup center who just happens to be a starting center and if the Celtics intend to add a quality starting center then paying Zeller $10 million a year would be a huge financial mistake.

Consider that we sign Zeller to a $10 million contract and then we are finally able to land that elusive starting center and just for the sake of argument we pay him $15 million per year.  The total expenditure at the center position would be $25 million and even if the cap goes up to $100 million you have allocated 25% of the total team salary to just 2 players.  Then when other players come up for new contracts it will be more difficult to retain them and as a result the team may not be as good.

Aside from that Zeller has shown nothing that tells me he is a $10 million player.  

As far as Perkins is concerned I suggest that we remember how he was the guy to check Howard and that was when Howard was the most dominating center in the NBA.  Perkins certainly did not have a better offense than Zeller but Perkins was a legit low post defensive center that provided a physical presence that could often trump the more athletic centers in the league.  Yes KG was the # 1 help defender on that team but even KG could not match up physically with players the way Perkins did.  And as has been mention on this board numerous times there was a consensus among his peers that when Danny made that stupid trade with OKC, the Celtics were no longer considered to be a scary team.  They were no longer a team that was going to beat you down physically.  Perkins was the main component of that group and players around the league respected his thuggery.

dboss

dboss excellent point, I remember Peter Vecsey writing an article that players in the league were very happy with the Perk-Green trade, as we lost that fear factor, that fear in the paint. With KG and Perk we had the best defensive 4-5 combo in the league, once Perk was gone teams went after KG, he was still great, but teams started to challenge him. Where as before you try to rough up KG, you got an enforcer just waiting to blast you in Perk, so nobody went there.

cowens/oldschool wrote:dboss excellent point, I remember Peter Vecsey writing an article that players in the league were very happy with the Perk-Green trade, as we lost that fear factor, that fear in the paint. With KG and Perk we had the best defensive 4-5 combo in the league, once Perk was gone teams went after KG, he was still great, but teams started to challenge him. Where as before you try to rough up KG, you got an enforcer just waiting to blast you in Perk, so nobody went there.

Cow

The Celtics have yet to replace what Perk brought to the table.

I know I am beating a dead horse but until Mr. Danny gets us a starting center that beating will go on periodically. Ha ha

dboss