If Celtics don’t get a top-2 pick, there is one more draft prize who is more than a consolation

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-celtics/2016/04/08/if-celtics-dont-get-a-top-2-pick-there-is-one-more-draft-prize-who-is-more-than-a-consolation




If Celtics don’t get a top-2 pick, there is one more draft prize who is more than a consolation




The NCAA Tournament sometimes leads to flawed evaluations of players. But Oklahoma's Buddy Hield is the real thing -- and you know Brad Stevens would use him right





Brad Stevens has shown an uncanny knack for getting the most out of flawed but talented players.
–AP Photo



By Chad Finn  8:53 AM



Every basketball fan who correctly favors the NBA over the NCAA does this to some degree. We’re all guilty of it. It’s irresistible.

We treat the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, that annual sports/culture/gambling fiesta that is so much fun that it remains resistant to ruin by the slippery men who run college athletics, as a chance to scope out and scout players who might have a real future at the game’s highest level.

The problem is that there’s a very high probability of future feelings of shame if you actually share those sizzling opinions that were gathered in a small sample-size. Because the tournament at its best is sports at its most exhilarating. A player who repeatedly performs exceptionally – and often above his norm — through a couple of rounds is going to have an exaggerated profile. You’re going to like him as a pro prospect maybe more than you should.

Oh, hey, here comes an example right now:

Michael Wilbon ✔ ‎@RealMikeWilbon
You can have Ben Simmons if you'd like; I'll take Brice Johnson 100 times out of 100 on my NBA team...
8:10 PM - 19 Mar 2016
 1,723 1,723 Retweets   2,259 2,259 likes


It’s often fool’s gold, as I first learned as a teenager, when I was convinced Houston’s Benny Anders (look him up – now he’s a story) was a superior skywalker …




… to teammate Clyde Drexler, or that Gary McLain, who ran the offense with near-flawless expertise while leading Villanova to the ’85 title, would be a quintessential intelligent point guard in the NBA. (Years ago, McLain admitted to being coked up while meeting President Reagan at the White House. He never played in the NBA.)

I guarantee you that there’s someone out there who saw Kris Jenkins’s instant-classic buzzer-beater  Monday night and decided right then he’s the next Draymond Green. (Probably Wilbon.)

And perhaps there’s someone else who may have spent the first round of the tournament thinking Villanova guard Ryan Arcidiacono’s name was Archie Diacono. Six wins later, that person, of course, is suddenly an expert on the kid’s game and will tell you he could really help the Sixers next year. (That person might be me, now that you mention it.)

The setup of the tournament, and the stars it makes, encourages major hyperbole. I get that. It’s irresistible. (Seriously, look up Benny Anders. Better yet, find him.) But if you are wary of looking like a fool a little too often, it can make you hesitant to opine on a player who intrigues you as a pro prospect.

For me, that player is/was Buddy Hield, Oklahoma’s tireless, bold shooting guard. Hield was the superstar of the tournament through the early rounds, scoring 27, 36, 17 and 37 points in the Sooners’ first four games en route to the Final Four. He made 47.5 percent of his 3s, and he shot 56.7 percent from the floor through those games, and was the star of the tourney before the Sooners ran into the Villanova buzzsaw in the semifinals.

Hield was very easy to believe in during his run. He was arguably the best player in college basketball this year, so his bona fides were already in place when he began drawing comparisons to exceptional guard performances of the recent past – Steph Curry leading puny Davidson to the fringe of the Final Four in ’08, or Kemba Walker putting UConn on his back in ‘11 and taking the Huskies to the title.

He’s still easy to believe in now, even if we recognize his flaws – for instance, that he’s not a particularly polished defender, or that he’s older than Marcus Smart, or that his 6-foot-4-inch height isn’t idea for an NBA shooting guard. (Kevin O’Connor has an especially thorough write-up on Hield in his highly recommended draft guide.)

While watching Hield, I tried to do it through a slightly higher level of assessment than saying, “He’s a great shooter and he seems to have fun out there. GO GET HIM, DANNY AINGE!” Since the Celtics, such a rewarding team to follow in this moment and one with so many possibilities ahead, will be major players in this year’s draft, I tried to watch Hield through the lens of what  I believed Ainge would like about him. But even more so, I tried to look at him at how Brad Stevens, who has an uncanny ability to get the most out of everyone, might use him.

It would be disappointing if the Celtics – who own the Nets’ lottery pick this year and are just a half-game back of the Suns for the third-worst record in the league – don’t end up with LSU’s Ben Simmons (a supreme talent who couldn’t overcome a poor coach and selfish teammates) or Duke’s Brandon Ingram (who has the sleepiest eyes since Sam Perkins but plays with admirable effort and alertness.)

Any player chosen later than those two might seem like a consolation prize. Maybe that will prove the case. But the more I saw Hield, and thought of him being used as a deadeye shooter in the Celtics’ offense, the more I became convinced that he’s not a consolation at all, but a true prize.

Don’t get me wrong, I want Simmons or Ingram, preferably the former, to end up on the Celtics. (Brice Johnson would be about 25th on my wish list.) But the ping-pong balls forsake the Celtics again, I’ll be happy to see Hield in green.

We know Stevens will use him to the best of his powers, and Hield has some damn impressive powers. We can’t forget that, even if that Villanova kid — Diacono, right? – did give him a tough time the last time we saw him. Sometimes a player is better than our last memory, too. Hield will prove that, wherever he goes.



bob


.

Well everyone knows that Buddy is the guy that I believe would be a great fit.

Dboss

dboss wrote:Well everyone knows that Buddy is the guy that I believe would be a great fit.

Dboss

I think Buddy is a good fit for Boston.
It is hard to compare him as a Sr. to Jamal Murray as a Freshman.
As freshmen, Hield averaged 7.5ppg. Murray averaged 20ppg.
Where will Murray be in a few years?
Also, Murray seems to be able to play some pg and sg.
Hield is really just a sg.
Would he take Turner's minutes?
What happens with Marcus Smart is they sign another guard?
Picks 1 and 2 seem pretty set. Just not sure of the order yet.
The pre-draft workouts will be huge this year because there's really 1/2 dozen different guys who could be picked from 3 down to 8.
It really depends on the team need and whether they want to compete now or are still in the rebuilding process.
If New Orleans or Phoenix pick at #3, they most likely wouldn't pick Hield.

Translation: Author watched his first couple college basketball games in March, or more likely one game and some highlights of a couple other games, and wrote an article where he pretends to know what he's talking about.

In reality, he probably couldn't name three other prospects aside from Simmons, Ingram, and Hield.

arambone wrote:Translation: Author watched his first couple college basketball games in March, or more likely one game and some highlights of a couple other games, and wrote an article where he pretends to know what he's talking about.

In reality, he probably couldn't name three other prospects aside from Simmons, Ingram, and Hield.

Man have you got that right!

tjmakz wrote:

dboss wrote:Well everyone knows that Buddy is the guy that I believe would be a great fit.

Dboss

I think Buddy is a good fit for Boston.
It is hard to compare him as a Sr. to Jamal Murray as a Freshman.
As freshmen, Hield averaged 7.5ppg. Murray averaged 20ppg.
Where will Murray be in a few years?
Also, Murray seems to be able to play some pg and sg.
Hield is really just a sg.
Would he take Turner's minutes?
What happens with Marcus Smart is they sign another guard?
Picks 1 and 2 seem pretty set. Just not sure of the order yet.
The pre-draft workouts will be huge this year because there's really 1/2 dozen different guys who could be picked from 3 down to 8.
It really depends on the team need and whether they want to compete now or are still in the rebuilding process.
If New Orleans or Phoenix pick at #3, they most likely wouldn't pick Hield.

Tj

Hield is a SG.  Murray is a combo guard but he only averaged 2 assists per game.

Either player would be a good fit for Boston.  Hield is the better shooter.  He is a pure shooter.  Murray was outstanding given that fact that he was only a freshman.  Buddy is ready now. Rosier is going to be the BU PG.  I think Turner walks.  Celtics need a sf
as well.

I vote for Hield.  12 games of 30 or more.

Dboss

Hield is an upper-classmen, ready for the NBA.

Murray looks good, but is only a freshman. Young, anyone?

Of the two not even close; it's Hield.

I take Valentine WAY before Murray.

Murray shot 44.4% from 3 in conference play. Hield shot like 44.6% in conference play, on a similarly crazy-high number of shots.

Hield mostly just got off to a better start to the season, as a doctoral student, or whatever he is.

arambone wrote:Murray shot 44.4% from 3 in conference play. Hield shot like 44.6% in conference play, on a similarly crazy-high number of shots.

Hield mostly just got off to a better start to the season, as a doctoral student, or whatever he is.

Bone hield played in a tougher conference. The comparison that you are trying to make does not change the facts.

Held is the better long distance shooter and scorer.

Dboss

dboss wrote:

arambone wrote:Murray shot 44.4% from 3 in conference play. Hield shot like 44.6% in conference play, on a similarly crazy-high number of shots.

Hield mostly just got off to a better start to the season, as a doctoral student, or whatever he is.

Bone hield played in a tougher conference.  The comparison that you are trying to make does not change the facts.

Held is the better long distance shooter and scorer.

Dboss

Dboss,

Agree. True, Murray had a good run at a time when more TVs were tuned in.

Murray's draft stock in the mocks has moved up, and he's gotten more attention, but I think he could use another year of school to elevate his game.  I'm not sure NBA execs would follow general public opinion, but I'd compare it to our taking Young.  Someone might be afraid to miss out, and select him on the chance he can develop further as a pro.  That's a tough thing to do.  For recent examples, just ask our guy Young, or the junior Rivers.

Hield has played against tougher competition longer, has a more mature game and mentality as a result, and would be my pick to get some serious playing time as a young NBA player.  I think he's at the forefront of a developing trend back to more experienced upperclassmen (or at least not frosh) being showcased at the NCAA level, and next in the NBA draft.

Regards

"True, Murray had a good run at a time when more TVs were tuned in.

Murray's draft stock in the mocks has moved up, and he's gotten more attention"

Right, because nobody watched Hield in the NCAA Tournament. Just a diamond in the rough. Way to spot the guy who was the talk of the NCAA Tournament.

The only thing Murray and Young have in common is they both went to Kentucky. Do 5 minutes of research and find out.

Rambone,

I've watched both Hield and Murray all year.

I think you might be the one that needs to do a little research.

You also might re-read what I said, because your comments don't seem to be a very clear response.

NY Celt, name an NBA guard who had a better freshman season than Murray, besides Steph Curry.

20 points per game on crazy efficiency and consistency, and you act like he's some raw project with a likelihood of turning into James Young or Austin Rivers.

Name one guard with a better freshman season.

arambone wrote:NY Celt, name an NBA guard who had a better freshman season than Murray, besides Steph Curry.

20 points per game on crazy efficiency and consistency, and you act like he's some raw project with a likelihood of turning into James Young or Austin Rivers.

Name one guard with a better freshman season.

I think you're missing the fact that Murray has been a liability on defense to Kentucky this year.

I think you're missing that Murray has tremendous difficulty creating his own shot.

I think you missed that after Kentucky moved Ulis back to point, and Murray to 2, that Murray usually defended the opponent's poorest shooters and scorers.

I think you missed the number of points scored on Murray because his extremely slow lateral speed allowed others to get around him time after time.

I think you missed that he racked up points bombing away on three's, which is fine, but in many games couldn't get to the rim and often looked to have a pretty poor handle when he did try to drive.

I think that you missed that Murray had just one high scoring performance in a game when he was guarded throughout the contest by a potential future NBA guard (Baldwin of Vanderbilt) prior to the tourney.

I think you must have missed his December games.  Uneven and up and down, within the game, except vs Ohio State (talking about more than just scoring).

I think you're missing that defenses were set up to isolate and key on Rivers and Young far more often, consistently and effectively than Murray, often doubling both when they had the ball.  Not so with Murray.

I think you're missing the degree to which opposing defenses keyed on Hield all year, yet he put up numbers.  Again, Murray didn't see that same pressure.

I think you're missing that Hield didn't have someone like Tyler Ulis (2016 Cousy Award winner) feeding him the ball, or teammates that set screens well for him as Murray did.

I think you're missing that although Murray is a very deadly long-range shooter, he needs to develop the rest of his game.  He's really a one-trick pony right now.

I think you're looking mainly at scoring, and missing other key skills that lead to a successful NBA career.

I think you're missing the point about young players jumping before they're truly ready.

Also, I think you're missing my earlier private message.

NYcelt

Your 5 minutes of research is quite revealing.

Dboss

arambone

I like a lot of shooters that will be drafted this year.

I do not see a 4 year player as being less valuable than the one and done prospect.  To the contrary in some situations. Ready to play now means a player can earn his money now. I think it accelerates the rebuild.

Dboss

Hield was a one man show with the defense keying on him all year.

Muarry got to play with alot of supposedly future pros at Kentucky so I assume he had alot of wide open looks, didn't have to create as near much on his own.

I didn't see enough of either, so to me its still a crapshoot

The big question is : Which year Danny will have all the chips on hand that are needed to mount a serious challenge for the title. There are a few big "ifs" involved that will dictate just how soon that will be.


swish