Ranking the top 7 free agents the Boston Celtics need to pursue

http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/boston-celtics-free-agency-kevin-durant-al-horford-max-contracts-042916



Ranking the top 7 free agents the Boston Celtics need to pursue


By Michael Pina


Apr 29, 2016 at 1:41p ET




Without home-court advantage and two of their five most important players healthy enough to contribute, the 2015-16 Boston Celtics were squashed by the Atlanta Hawks on Thursday night. Their playoff run is over, but their offseason is just beginning, and for those invested in Boston’s optimistic long-term prospects, now is when the real fun starts.

NBA TV ✔ ‎@NBATV
"We've got to get better and it starts with me." - @Celtics coach Brad Stevens
8:09 PM - 28 Apr 2016
 66 66 Retweets   132 132 likes


Thanks to the Brooklyn Nets, there’s a 46.9 percent chance the Celtics wind up with a top-3 pick in this year’s draft. Whether they keep that asset or flip him for a more solid commodity, Boston finds itself in an advantageous spot. But if the Celtics really want to speed up the process and win big sooner than later, free agency is their best bet.

Assuming next season's salary cap is $92 million, the Celtics have (as much as) $58.1 million to spend. That assumes Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko (two highly productive players in Boston’s brief postseason run) don't have their non-guaranteed contracts guaranteed, Evan Turner’s $4.4 million cap hold is renounced and the team lets Jared Sullinger and Tyler Zeller walk.


David Butler II


Free agents should want to play in Boston. The Celtics have arguably the best ownership/front office/head coach synergy in the entire league, and several highly valuable chess pieces already well-positioned on the board (Jae Crowder, Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley are all entering their prime on extremely team-friendly deals through the next two years—at least).

Growth is inevitable, and good players will take the Celtics' money. But the difference between a few meaningful playoff runs and sustained championship-level excellence may hinge on who, exactly, is willing to sign on the dotted line.

Here’s a look at seven players the Celtics should pursue this offseason, ranked by how much they’d increase Boston’s odds of raising an 18th banner anytime in the foreseeable future.


7. Bismack Biyombo

If Johnson leaves, the Celtics should copy the Toronto Raptors and replace him with Biyombo. Athletic centers who can rebound and protect the rim are important, yet remain slightly undervalued in a marketplace that’s obsessed with shooting and springy versatility on the wing.

James Herbert ‎@outsidethenba
Dwane Casey on Bismack Biyombo: “He’s the spirit of the team. He’s kind of the soul of our team.”

Reminder: free agent in July.
11:37 AM - 27 Apr 2016
 7 7 Retweets   15 15 likes


Biyombo is competent enough to switch out and defend a smaller player on the perimeter, but his faults lie in not being able to do anything with the basketball when he's standing beyond an arm’s length of the rim. As a pick-and-roll partner, he’d be useless whenever opponents trap Isaiah Thomas, because a quick pass to Biyombo at the elbow effectively ends the possession. But he can still suck help defenders in on hard dives through the paint, and knows how to finish above the rim.

Biyombo is a 23-year-old, five-year veteran; a snug fit inside Boston’s current timeline. But it’s unlikely he’s the in Celtics' long-term starting five without adding a few more tools to his repertoire.


6. Mirza Teletovic

The Celtics shot 33.5 percent behind the three-point line this season, good for 28th in the entire league. A semi-legitimate issue quickly turned into a pandemic catastrophe after Avery Bradley hurt himself in Game 1 of their playoff series against the Atlanta Hawks, during which Boston shot a pathetic 27.5 percent from downtown.

https://vine.co/v/iT9KhHKPIOw

Needless to say, the Celtics are desperate for shooting wherever they can find it. Teletovic can shoot. His 181 threes off the bench were an NBA record last season, and he’d be a perfect fit in pick-and-pop situations, or spotting up in the corner as a small-ball four.


5. Allen Crabbe

This isn’t a sexy choice, but Crabbe brings the aforementioned outside shooting at a position of need. He’s versatile, just turned 24 years old, made 42.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes this season and can never be left alone.

Crabbe finished his third NBA season as an above-average shooter from just about every area of the floor, and he’d be a tremendous, space-creating weapon in Stevens’ system.

Casey Holdahl ✔ ‎@CHold
. @allencrabbe picked up one third place vote for 6th man.
7:46 AM - 19 Apr 2016
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The one drawback is Crabbe can’t create opportunities for other players. If Marcus Smart makes a leap next year, that becomes less of a problem. But the Celtics had only two reliable playmakers this season, and one of them, Turner, is an unrestricted free agent. If Boston re-signs Turner, it's unclear why Crabbe would sign with a team that can't give him more minutes than the Portland Trail Blazers just did. He's restricted, too, which means whoever wants him needs to come with a sizable offer sheet.


4. Harrison Barnes

Whichever team signs Barnes knows it willingly overpaid to do so. Currently the fifth- or sixth-best player on one of the most dominant teams in NBA history, Barnes turns 24 in May and may or may not be ready to handle a larger role in a different situation.

RedNinetyFour ‎@RedNinetyFour
Again, as I’ve been saying, max for Harrison Barnes on any other team is sheer lunacy.
3:06 PM - 22 Apr 2016
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His pedigree, intangibles, athleticism and work ethic are inarguable strengths, but will Barnes ever make an All-Star team? As Boston’s starting power forward next season, what do his numbers look like? How does he make them better?

Barnes is a growing talent with championship experience and two-way versatility. But league economics eliminate the possibility of finding any value in his upcoming contract. It’s a big gamble, but if gleaming stars sign elsewhere, Barnes is a calculated swing for the fences Boston may deem worthy.


3. Al Horford

Horford is a very good player. The Celtics need very good players. Fin.


2. Nicolas Batum





Batum ranks above Horford because he’s 2.5 years younger, more versatile and a better three-point shooter whose responsibilities are more valuable in today’s NBA than ever before. Batum can handle the ball, pass the ball, shoot the ball and defend the ball.

He can penetrate, draw fouls and comfortably run pick-and-rolls, which allows teammates to thrive under the radar while Batum absorbs more than enough of the defense’s attention. (It's no coincidence that Kemba Walker had his best year after the Charlotte Hornets traded for Batum.)

Can you even imagine what a Thomas, Smart, Bradley, Crowder, Batum crunch-time lineup would do? In small doses, the thought is terrifying.  


1. Kevin Durant

Much like Horford, explaining why the Celtics should pursue Durant is not worth anybody’s time. He’s arguably the best scorer in the world. And in Boston, on a team that has plenty of resources to surround him with top-tier talent, the Celtics would still probably be Finals-bound, as is, had Durant been on this year’s team.

The potential lineup combinations are fatal on both ends, and with Durant on the ball Boston’s three-point woes become less of an issue because it then would be able to use Thomas and Bradley as bonafide spacers.

Jay King ✔ ‎@ByJayKing
Does Isaiah Thomas know Kevin Durant? "I do," he smiled. "He played for the Sonics so I know him a little bit."
9:37 AM - 29 Apr 2016
 37 37 Retweets   91 91 likes


More importantly, if Durant signs in Boston, other stars will show interest; Danny Ainge has the assets and means to easily bring them aboard, too.

A Celtics-Durant marriage makes sense if he wants to leave the Oklahoma City Thunder. And Boston would be baby steps away from joining the Golden State Warriors, Cleveland Cavaliers and San Antonio Spurs in the league’s top tier if he did.

Everything changes if the Celtics get him.



bob
MY NOTE:  A pretty nice list, more well thought out than some I've seen around the web I think, but flawed (other than the more obvious names).  

If Amir is gone, either because Danny doesn't pick up his option or moves him in a sign-and-trade, then Bismaaackkk BiYOMMMMBOOOoooo!!!! would be a nice replacement.  Maybe not as good, but a fraction of the price and more willing to come off the bench.  And just think of all the fun I would have saying his name.

They call Teletovic "The Man With The Golden Arm" in Phoenix.  Nice nickname but he's not as good a shooter as Kelly, 42.7% vs 45.5%, 29.5% from 3 vs 40.5% for Kelly, he shoots more than Kelly despite that and he isn't as good a passer/floor general as Kelly (1.9 assists and 1.8 TOs for Mirza/36mpg (1.05:1) vs 2.7 assists and 1.9 TOs for Kelly/36mpg (1.42:1), but if Danny can get an upgrade at a key position by trading Kelly then Teletovic might be an acceptable replacement.  I know a lot of people are down on Kelly right now but throwing out the baby with the bath water makes no sense either.  And Teletovic is 30 years old while Kelly is only 25 and is still on his rookie contract.  Teletovic didn't come to the NBA until he was 27, so he has 4 years experience and is 30 while Kelly has 3 years experience and is still on his front 9.

I watched the Trailblazers close out the Clips last night.  Crabbe was right there in the thick of things.  Pina did a good job of describing him.  A shooter, a defender, NOT a passer/creator.  For him to work as Turner's replacement we would need to find another ball handler/floor general because Crabbe is not him.  Still, he is not afraid to take, and hit, the big shots.  24 years old.

I like Harrison Barnes, but he is not worth the money he is probably going to be demanding.  If he has brain cell 1 he should stay on the Warriors because they have the roster that works for him.  They won't pay him what he wants, and they know him better than anybody.

We already have a thread about Horford.

Batum is a really good player, but his playoff numbers seem to be consistently lower than his regular season numbers.  NOT what I want, I want the opposite.  He's making almost $12M this year.  Is he worth more?  I'm not sure, not since we need a legit NBA starting center who, if even available, will not be cheap and one more (Durant?  If we get another All-Star?).  I don't think Batum is a game changer.

Nobody wants KD, so why should we?  Yeah, right...To get him we need Horford or Cousins or some other marquis name player.  Danny's problem is that KD is the #1 free agent and the other players and teams will be waiting to see what happens with him before they leap.  Danny needs another big name BEFORE free agency opens.  In my opinion, He needs a blockbuster trade before the free agent open season starts on 7/7/16.  That's a lot of time for something to happen between May 17th, when the lottery is held and we find out exactly where the Brooklyn pick will be, and June 23rd, when the draft is held, for Trader Danny to make deals but I think he needs one to realistically be anything more than a dark horse in the Durant Sweepstakes.



.

I believe that Batum is coming off an injury and then coming off the bench during the playoffs, so that would explain his lower numbers.

I'd go for door #'s 1 and 2. They start at the 3 and 4 position. Crowder and Olynyk are their backups off the bench.

We still need a 5, Bismack Biyombo is not the answer. Amir is gone. We already have the backup w/Zeller.

gyso

Go all in for Durant. He's the much needed super star that a serious contender must have. With all the remaining chips that Danny would still have, filling out the rest of the roster with excellent complimenting players should be a breeze.

swish

swish wrote:Go all in for Durant. He's the much needed super star that a serious contender must have. With all the remaining chips that Danny would still have, filling out the rest of the roster with excellent complimenting players should be a breeze.

 swish

Swish,

Durant is an UNrestricted free agent.  He can go, or not go, anywhere he wants.  EVERY team with the cap space, and there are quite a few, will go "all in" for him.  The decider will be "where does he think he can win?"

The best way of convincing him is for Danny to pull off a big trade, if not All-NBA then at least an All-Star.  If he doesn't then, in my opinion, there is no "all in" that Danny can offer that will turn his head.  It won't be money, he'll get his max deal no matter where he chooses.


bob


.

bobheckler wrote:

swish wrote:Go all in for Durant. He's the much needed super star that a serious contender must have. With all the remaining chips that Danny would still have, filling out the rest of the roster with excellent complimenting players should be a breeze.

 swish

Swish,

Durant is an UNrestricted free agent.  He can go, or not go, anywhere he wants.  EVERY team with the cap space, and there are quite a few, will go "all in" for him.  The decider will be "where does he think he can win?"

The best way of convincing him is for Danny to pull off a big trade, if not All-NBA then at least an All-Star.  If he doesn't then, in my opinion, there is no "all in" that Danny can offer that will turn his head.  It won't be money, he'll get his max deal no matter where he chooses.


bob


.

And just like most Celtic fans think that the future of the Celtics is very promising it is possible that Danny will be able to convince Durant that his future could be best served by signing with the Celtics. Surely Danny will remind him of the Celtic makeover of 2007-08 and of the fact that he once again has the chips to duplicate that scenario again. Certainly the bidding for his services will be furious but nevertheless a doable deal for the Celtics. Time will tell.

swish

Below link presents the salary cap figures for all 30 teams for this years free agency biding war.

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nbas-bestworst-case-2016-17-cap-projections/


 With Durant expected to get a Max contract of about 25 mil it appears to me that most of the better teams will not have the cap space to be involved in the Durant sweepstakes. But the salary cap rules are quite tricky so who knows for sure? If that is the case then the chances of the Celtics landing him are greatly enhanced.

 swish

I will agree with the posters who mentioned that getting Durant may completely hinge on getting another top notch player on the roster before the free agency period opens.

Durant already knows that he cannot win a championship by himself or even with another fine player (Westbrook) so why would he even think of going to another team that does not have at least a similar player to Westbrook?  Thomas is a good player, but with just adding Durant to Thomas Boston is not better than OKC is with Durant and Westbrook and Ibaka except for being located in the eastern conference.

Durant knows the game and can easily figure out where he may have a better chance to win might be.  He also knows what kind of players he wants to play with.  I am sure that he is impressed with how well the Cs did this year without a first rate offensive weapon beyond Thomas and also impressed with Stevens and his staff.  However, more probably needs to be done to get his full attention in July.

Of the names mentioned, Okafor is going to be the easiest to trade for since his salary for the next few years is the lowest.  So perhaps one of our younger and better players and the Nets pick and another first round pick may get him to Boston if you really want this kid.  Butler and Cousins are going to be harder to get due to their salaries are triple what Okafor gets.  This means more of our younger and better players will have to leave to make salaries match plus the Nets pick and still another first round pick or two.

Draining the roster of its quality young players then would open up a bunch of other spots to fill.  Say Crowder and Bradley leave via trade for Butler, Ainge must then find quality replacements for both guys. Not sure that Hunter, Young, Rozier and Mickey fill in well enough by next season.

Going to be very interesting that is for sure.

[quote=]

Of the names mentioned, Okafor is going to be the easiest to trade for since his salary for the next few years is the lowest.  So perhaps one of our younger and better players and the Nets pick and another first round pick may get him to Boston if you really want this kid.  Butler and Cousins are going to be harder to get due to their salaries are triple what Okafor gets.  This means more of our younger and better players will have to leave to make salaries match plus the Nets pick and still another first round pick or two.


Going to be very interesting that is for sure.[/quote]

I already laid out a possible scenario where we aquire Butler and sign Whiteside or Horford (etc) to a max deal.

here is one that lets us get Cousins and Durant.

1) we trade Bradley, Amir , nets pick, #31 pick and the 2018 nets pick to the Kings for
Cousins and McLemore.

our Salary Number minus holds after the trade still at $51M. add in about $3M for the two first round picks left and we are around $54M . leaving us with about $26M Just enough to add Durant.

here we need to enounce Sully, Turner and Zeller holds and/OR release Jerebko and his $5M non guaranteed salary.

I would release Jerebko and re-sign Zeller using that money.

on draft night I pick:
#16- Sabonis or Ellenson- whichever drops
#23- D. Jones or AJ Hammons

#35- D. Hamilton or P. McCaw

Roster:
Cousins- Starting C
Zeller
D. Jones of Hammons
Kelly
Sabonis or Ellenson
Mickey
Crowder- starting F
Durant- Starting F
Smart- Starting G
Thomas- Starting G
McLemore
Rozier
Hunter
Hamilton or McCaw- Replaces Young.

one roster spot left, possible vet minimum

Spurs and GS built their championship level teams through  the draft and I think Boston should do the same.

If Boston decides to trade the Nets pick this year getting a 
superstar must be part of the deal.  

If the Celtics go after Durant, It may end up being a sign and trade deal so that he can get that 5th year.  

The tricky part of everything is that the top free agents will not be available until after the draft.  But we could see multiple draft day trades by Boston to work a trade and or to move up in the draft.  Two top 10 picks would be great.

The entire picture has so many variables that it really is impossible to figure out.  There is only one superstar among the free agents mentioned.  The Cousins speculation continues to flare up like a bad rash.  

I am not remotely hopeful that we can add Durant.  

I would go the conservative route.  Add 2 shooters from the draft and go after a rim protector via trade or free agency.  Keep  the core in tact but upgrade quality of the overall depth.  Harrison Barnes would be a good SF addition and I would take him over Batmun because he can play defense.

Dboss

dboss wrote:Spurs and GS built their championship level teams through  the draft and I think Boston should do the same.

If Boston decides to trade the Nets pick this year getting a 
superstar must be part of the deal.  

If the Celtics go after Durant, It may end up being a sign and trade deal so that he can get that 5th year.  

The tricky part of everything is that the top free agents will not be available until after the draft.  But we could see multiple draft day trades by Boston to work a trade and or to move up in the draft.  Two top 10 picks would be great.

The entire picture has so many variables that it really is impossible to figure out.  There is only one superstar among the free agents mentioned.  The Cousins speculation continues to flare up like a bad rash.  

I am not remotely hopeful that we can add Durant.  

I would go the conservative route.  Add 2 shooters from the draft and go after a rim protector via trade or free agency.  Keep  the core in tact but upgrade quality of the overall depth.  Harrison Barnes would be a good SF addition and I would take him over Batmun because he can play defense.

Dboss

Dboss,

I think you summed it up well, but more importantly, I think you summed it up realistically.

Not bad for a Colts fan.

I believe our top 3 free agent targets would be Barnes, Batum and Festus Ezeli. Ezeli was not mentioned in the article above.

All have drawbacks.  Barnes is going to be looking for bigger money than we may be willing to pay and is restricted.  Batum is 28, closer to the high end age wise.  He is unrestricted, but will cost a lot for a guy who had a bad year in '14 - '15.  Ezeli is restricted but may allow us the opportunity to sign the big-body defensive center we need.  Were I sitting in Danny's chair, with a good chance we can find the scorer/outside shooter we need in the draft, I would look hard at how or if we might be able to pick up Ezeli.

Regards

NYCelt 

You are too funny.  After 6 years I finally purchased a new phone.  The old one stopped working and when I made a call no one on the other end of the line could hear.  I figured under the circumstances that it could no longer be considered a phone.

Enter the new phone that changes words even when I spell them correctly.  Thus while I am a Celts fan my stupid phone thinks I am really a Colts fan.

Anyways Festus also crossed my mind.  I like both Barnes and Batum but prefer Barnes.  GS has to make a qualifying offer.  Around $5 mill

Dboss

Dboss,

I started using my Kindle for Game On! threads. It is so much more manageable than my larger laptop. It has learned the word, "Celtics". When I type "Go C . . ." it has Celtics in the que. Most times however, it changes what I type and it is very frustrating. I get odd looks from the Mrs. whenever she catches me swearing at inanimate objects.

gyso

bobheckler wrote:I watched the Trailblazers close out the Clips last night.  Crabbe was right there in the thick of things.  Pina did a good job of describing him.  A shooter, a defender, NOT a passer/creator.  For him to work as Turner's replacement we would need to find another ball handler/floor general because Crabbe is not him.  Still, he is not afraid to take, and hit, the big shots.  24 years old.

With Boston out of the playoffs, I encourage those interested in upcoming free agents to catch a game or two of the Portland-Golden State series to check out Crabbe.

I've seen Portland a few times this year, and Crabbe has impressed me more as the season has gone along. He may not be a creator, but he can shoot, play D, and get some rebounds. Boston needs guys like him.

Besides, with the hair, he'd fit right in.

Outside wrote:

bobheckler wrote:I watched the Trailblazers close out the Clips last night.  Crabbe was right there in the thick of things.  Pina did a good job of describing him.  A shooter, a defender, NOT a passer/creator.  For him to work as Turner's replacement we would need to find another ball handler/floor general because Crabbe is not him.  Still, he is not afraid to take, and hit, the big shots.  24 years old.

With Boston out of the playoffs, I encourage those interested in upcoming free agents to catch a game or two of the Portland-Golden State series to check out Crabbe.

I've seen Portland a few times this year, and Crabbe has impressed me more as the season has gone along. He may not be a creator, but he can shoot, play D, and get some rebounds. Boston needs guys like him.

Besides, with the hair, he'd fit right in.

Outside,

Yeah, I forgot about the hair.  Do they all go to the same barber?

One of the players some people are posting about is Uncle Festus Ezeli.  He's a restricted free agent.  What do think GSW will do about him?  I'm sure they will give him a qualifying offer (duh!) but how high do you think they would go if another team, like Boston, was willing to bid up?



bob
P.S.  Nice win today without Curry.  11 more.


.

Bob,

I'm think Golden State may be more likely to match for Ezeli than for Barnes. I could see Ezeli being the replacement for Bogut in a couple of years. The knee issues concern me, but he is one big, athletic dude who has improved his skills significantly over the past couple of years and has the potential to be really good. He also seems to be a genuinely nice guy and great teammate. Everyone on the team likes Festus.

But that knee worries me. Ezeli didn't play today, and I was surprised to see Varejao as the first big off the bench. I think Ezeli is still recovering both rust-wise and health-wise from his knee surgery. I didn't hear anyone say it, but I wonder if he got the day off because his knee is sore.

Barnes has also improved his skills nicely, but he's not max-money good. Like you, I think he'd be nuts to leave what is a great situation, but he didn't accept the offer prior to this season, so it seems like he's interested in chasing the money. If that is truly the case, one of the writers close to the team said that the other players would just as soon let him go, because many of them have taken lesser deals to be part of this team and they think Barnes should, too. Barnes is a very good, productive two-way player, I really like his defense, rebounding, and effort, but he's not consistent enough offensively to command more than Klay and Draymond. With the bump in the salary cap, somebody is going to offer him a big number, and like you, I don't think the Warriors will overpay. Durant is a long shot, but they might be quite happy to sign a guy like Batum to fill that spot.

I'm of course glad the Warriors won today, but I was even happier to hear Curry say he feels like he could come back by game 3. Even if he doesn't come back that soon, that's a positive indication that his recovery is going nicely. I'd really like to see him get at least one game in this series, preferably two, because they'll need him playing well in the conference finals.

I'm also thrilled to see them play so well and confidently without Curry. At certain points this season, they've been too dependent on Curry, too willing to not give max effort and let Curry bail them out, and if they can add a healthy Curry to what they're doing now, they could be the best possible version of themselves.