What kind of money will the Celtics have to pursue free agents this summer?

John - Red's Army

With Jerryd Bayless in and Courtney Lee out this week, the Celtics took a step closer to attaining some of that coveted “financial flexibility” they’ve been pursuing.  But the question people really want to know is… what kind of money will the Celtics really have to pursue a free agent this summer?

People are getting excited about the team’s future.  The team’s early success has already shown Brad Stevens can be a pretty good NBA coach, and many fans will gladly play the “what if” game when it comes to having Rajon Rondo during all those blown fourth-quarter leads.  Those things alone have people wondering if the right draft pick and free agent acquisition could combine to end the rebuild early, and return to “contender” status.
So let’s see where the Celtics are, and what they can do.

After the trade (and subsequent release of Ryan Gomes), the Celtics payroll went from $71,219,789 to $69,639,268… for a savings of  basically $1.6 million dollars.  They key short-term impact for the C’s here is moving well back of the luxury tax line, which is $71.7 million.

The big part of the Lee trade was what it means for the C’s financial future.  Bayless is a free agent after this season, so the Celtics can choose to let him walk.  He’s not the only one that can go away this summer to free up space, so let’s start deducting to see how far down we can get the C’s salary number before we have to add to it.

Assuming the Celtics don’t trade any of their free agents (Kris Humphries, and Marshon Brooks… Bayless can’t be traded now unless it’s a sign-and-trade after the season is over), the team will save $16.3 million.  The Celtics payroll at that point would be $53,294,188 for 11 players.

The Celtics will almost certainly waive Keith Bogans.  None of his $5,285,816 is guaranteed.  The Celtics payroll at that point would be $48,008,372 for 10 players.

The Celtics could choose to use the “stretch provision” on Gerald Wallace.  That means they could waive him and spread the cap hit over twice the remaining years on his contact, plus one year.  So the $20.2 million he’s owed would become a slightly more than $4 million cap hit over the next five years (ending after the 2018-19 season).  Next year’s cap number becomes $43,966,030 for 9 players.

The Celtics could waive Phil Pressey, saving about $800k and bringing their payroll down to $43,149,548 for 8 players.
From there, the Celtics will have some tougher choices to make, namely with Jordan Crawford.  He’s a restricted free agent.  Will they make the $3.2 million qualifying offer and retain the right to match offers made by other teams?  If they don’t, and they let him walk too, they can get the cap number down to $39,942,681 for 7 players.

The estimated salary cap for the 2014-15 season is expected to be about $62.1 million.
That means the Celtics have $22,157,319 in cap room, and 7 players under contract.

Let’s start adding.

Avery Bradley, in this scenario, is still on the books at the qualifying offer slot of just under $3.6 million.  The Celtics could certainly let him go just like Jordan Crawford in this scenario, but let’s just assume they want to keep Avery.
The baseline for Bradley is Tony Allen.  Allen is 32 years old and Bradley is 23.  Bradley is also, currently, in the top 25 in 3-point field goal percentage, and is regarded as one of the premier on-ball defenders in the league.

So if Allen is making $5 million, we can safely assume Bradley will make a few more million based on his youth and performance.  Let’s assume he earns an extension starting at $8 million a year.  Some might think that’s high, some might think that’s low, but it’s a number that won’t be too far off either extreme and will work for our purposes.
Bradley, at $8 million even next year means the Celtics have $17,738,621 in cap space.

Let’s just pretend the Celtics hit the jackpot and get the #1 overall pick.  That would be an automatic salary of $4,592,200.  (the second overall pick would make $4,108,800, third would make $3,689,700, fourth: $3,326,700, and fifth: $3,012,500 as detailed by Larry Coon).  The top overall selection would bring the cap space down to $13,146,421.  That would be the eighth player under contract.

So as of right now in this scenario, the Celtics have signed the top overall pick, extended Avery Bradley, let all of their other free agents walk, waived Bogans and Pressey, and used the stretch provision on Wallace.

That leaves this roster: Rondo, Bradley, Jeff Green, Brandon Bass, Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk, Vitor Faverani, and our top overall pick.

The Celtics would have just over $13 million to fill up to seven spots.  There is also the possible use of the “room exception” in this that allows for an extra player at a $2.5 million salary.

But still, $13 million for between four and seven spots isn’t exactly going to land you a premier free agent… at least not the traditional free-agent route.  Even if you play with the numbers (sign Bradley for less, get a lower than first overall pick), it’s still not going to be enough throw tons of cash at a big-name guy.

For the Celtics to be in the running for a top-notch guy, they’ll probably have to go the trade route.  If Danny can swing a major deal to go along with a top-5 pick and the return of Rondo, then suddenly some of that cap money can go to filling in some holes.

If the C’s are going to hasten this rebuild, Trader Danny’s going to have to go to work.  We know he’s got no problem with that.

What about the trade exemption we get from the Nets?

I've been saying all along that depending on either the draft or free agency to develop this team is a crap shoot. Those who doubt what I said about the draft are welcome to read the Tim Duncan Handbook aka Why Rick Pitino became Rick Pitiful. As for free agency, without the bread to satisfy a max contract type, the Celtics will be relegated to the Land of the Halt, the Lame and the Retreads—at the very best, two or three complementary players, probably with a lot of tread on their tires.

That leaves the trade route as the best avenue for (a) getting the intimidating stud they so desperately need and (b) staffing the rest of the team to reach the next level in terms of roster balance and competitiveness. So, if I had the choice between (1) parting with Humphries (definitely), Wallace (probably) and Brooks (absolutely) to gain cap space for free agents or (2) trying to include them in trades, I'd definitely go the trade route (if good opportunities can be found).

I want to make it clear that the mention of parting with Humphries is not necessarily a recommendation; I'd probably err in the direction of letting him walk and trying to sign him for half the annual dole.

Sam

If Boston was to hit the jackpot and land a guy like Wiggins for example, they could then trade Jeff Green and go after a high profile big.

I am guessing that Bay Leaves is gone and/or  Crawford is packaged in a trade.  I think RR, AB and Brooks will still be on the team next year (Brooks will be able to be resigned for a lot less than either Bay Leaves or Crawford)  Pressey is a question mark and I expect DA to draft a Point guard to groom behind Rondo...It is time to do that right now.

I also expect to see KO traded by next year.  Sully stays as does Green unless we get a high end 3 in the draft.  Bass is a question mark and could be traded any day.

Danny will resign AB because DA blew keeping tony Allen and AB is better than Tony Allen.

In sum I just threw a bunch of stuff up against the wall and none of t is really bound to stick.

dboss

Brooks, Crawford, and Bayless certainly will not all be on the team next year. My guess is at least one or two of them will be on the move. Humphries is likely to be gone after this year. Bogans' contract is expiring, too. Vitor is only signed through tio the end of the year. Pressey's contract is up at the end of this season, although its not very much.

So, how does that translate to cold hard cash?

Humphries: $12M
Bogans: $5M
Bayless: $3M
Brooks: $1.2M
Faverani: $2M
Pressey: $490K
___________
Total: $25.7M

We can also throw in Gomes being waived this week ($495K).

That's a lot of space opening up to make some moves. The draft is coming up, and it looks very promising from top to bottom.




KJ

Here's a link to the Shamsports Celtics salary page:
(it has not been updated since the Courtney Lee trade)

http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/celtics.jsp

Here's a link to the HoopsWorld Celtics salary page:
(it has been updated since the Courtney Lee trade)

http://www.hoopsworld.com/boston-celtics-team-salary

Here's a link to the HoopsHype Celtics salary page:
(it has been updated somewhat since the Courtney Lee trade)

http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston.htm

gyso

Hi,
The cap space that Celtics can get this summer is very promising. BTW, I also asked, after reading the article, where's 10.3M that Celtics can use in July?
OK, DA's got money and some trading options. Now comes the question: who. Who, out of Class of 2014 of FA (R or U) DA can/should target to build a contender (anything will be uncivilized)? Wet dream would be Lebron. What about reality?

AK

Whats this 10.3 mill Danny can use in July?

cowens/oldschool wrote:Whats this 10.3 mill Danny can use in July?

The trade exception we get from the nets deal...

A lot of different trade opportunities. Should be interesting from now till the trade deadline and the offseason. Trades and sign & trades are probably more likely than just signing players through cap space.

Have two first round picks this year right? Celtics own and the lesser of nets/hawks.

And I would guess that nets/hawks draft pick should be around 16 at best (both teams will make the playoffs in the east) and 23rdish at worst.

With some luck you can get a potential star with the Celtics pick and a serviceable bench player with the nets/hawks pick. There are a few centers that are prospected to go earlyish but I do not know if it is because they are considered good or just because size is always good.

I'm not particularly impressed by the centers who will be in the draft and who are currently rated highest. I'd be all for including either of this season's first round draft picks in a trade for a good defensive center.

Sam